环境风险感知的心理测量范式研究述评

环境风险感知研究是近年来环境风险领域研究的一个新的热点.该领域的研究反映了公众对环境风险及环境风险管理的偏好和价值观.将该方面的研究纳入环境风险管理的决策过程是有效实施环境风险管理的基础.阐述了环境风险感知的内涵,着重阐述了心理测量范式的假设、流程和因子分析描述,总结了该方法在环境风险感知领域的国内外研究状况及其意义和存在的缺陷,并在此基础上对心理测量范式在环境风险感知领域的研究前景进行了展望,提出了需要进一步研究的问题.     

How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists’ flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

How to get there? Assessing motorists' flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists' flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

山区农民泥石流灾害风险感知和可接受风险研究

基于泥石流灾害可接受风险调查问卷的分析,从泥石流灾害关注程度和类型、可接受性及灾害可接受风险3个方面阐述农民对泥石流灾害可接受风险的感知和态度。研究结果表明：(1)农民普遍关注泥石流灾害,主要关注的灾害后果是财产损失,财产损失中主要关注的是房屋;(2)农民对泥石流灾害可接受性分别是：距离为<5 km、频次为100年1次或更长时间1次、预警时间为<1 h和保险费用为<100元;(3)农民可接受的受灾人数、死亡人数、死亡比例、个人直接经济损失和总直接经济损失分别为≤100人、≤1人、≤5×10^-7/a、≤1 000元和≤10万元;(4)影响农民对泥石流灾害风险感知和风险态度以及可接受风险水平的主要人口特征是36～45岁、女性、受教育程度初中学历以及收入<1 000元/月的群体。     

公众风险感知评价--以高校在校生为例

公众风险感知状况可以反映出社会发展变化对人们心理状况造成的影响以及人们的反应.采用比较分析法,确立了风险感知研究指标体系,通过问卷调查方式,分析了高校学生由于个体差异特征而形成的风险感知能力的强弱差异,得出了以下结论:在风险信息的传播方面,学校教育的影响远远落后于各类媒体;从性别差异看,女生的风险感知强于男生;从学科差异看,文科学生的风险感知强于理科学生;从年级差异看,低年级学生的风险感知强于高年级学生;从生源地差异看,城市学生的风险感知强于县镇学生.对个体特征与风险感知指数进行相关性分析,结果显示,学科差异与风险感知的相关性最为显著,其后依次为年级、性别和生源地,其中年级差异与风险感知呈明显的负相关性.     

气候变暖与我国夏季洪涝灾害风险

根据近十几年的月平均降水观测资料,对我国东部地区夏季降水的异常偏多和偏少的趋进行了分析,发现自７０年代后期以来,东部地区降水量及降水异常偏多事件有明显的处升趋势;同时异常偏少事件则略有下降,但不显著。     

Unauthorised development and seismic hazard vulnerability: a study of squatters and engineers in Istanbul, Turkey

Many cities in developing nations have experienced an influx of poor migrants in search of work. This population influx has often been accommodated through land squatting, irregular construction and unauthorised housing. For the urban poor, this has resulted in immediate affordable housing; however, this housing frequently has long-term vulnerability to natural hazards. This article examines the ways in which squatters in Istanbul, Turkey, understand the seismic vulnerability of their unauthorised housing. Distrust of professional engineers and contractors has led Istanbul squatters to believe that self-built housing will not only be less costly but also safer than commercially built housing. The impact of residents' risk perceptions on their vulnerability to natural hazards is examined through a comparison of social attitudes regarding safe housing and the quality of unauthorised construction. This comparison highlights how squatters' risk perceptions necessitate innovative means of reducing vulnerability in unauthorised neighbourhoods of developing cities.     

Models of best practice in flood risk communication and management

Risk communication plays an increasingly central role in flood risk management, but there is a variety of conflicting advice about what does – and should – get transmitted, why, how, and to whom. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the underlying normative and conceptual models on which those competing assessments of ‘good’ risk communication depend. To that end, the paper identifies four broad models, or approaches, to risk communication: a risk message model of information transfer; a risk instrument model of behavioural change; a risk dialogue model of participatory deliberation; and a risk government model of self-regulation and normalization. These models differ in their theoretical and disciplinary origins and associated philosophical and political commitments, and consequently they define the basic purpose, practice, and future prospects of flood risk communication in quite different ways. Unless these different models of ‘good’ risk communication are acknowledged and understood, efforts to identify best practice for flood risk management are likely to produce inconsistent, if not contradictory, recommendations.     

灾害风险感知研究方法与应用综述

阐述了风险感知的基本内涵、影响因素以及主流的研究方法,总结了风险感知研究方法的最新发展,归纳了近年来国内外灾害风险感知相关理论研究和实证研究,并对灾害风险感知研究的发展趋势进行了展望,提出了未来灾害风险感知研究中应当完善的问题。     

Engaging pet owners in disaster risk and preparedness communications: simplifying complex human–animal relations with archetypes

The influence of human–animal relationships upon owners' perceptions and behaviours can lead to situations that place owners and animals at risk of harm. Pet ownership particularly is considered a risk factor for unsafe responses to natural hazards, though conversely, it can also be viewed as a protective factor that motivates disaster preparedness. However, each relationship should not be treated equivalently, as characteristics considered most meaningful within them differ across various types of pet–owner relationship and along multiple dimensions. A one-size-fits-all approach to applying the pets-as-protective-factor principle is then too broad in scope. This review outlines a novel psychographic profiling approach for archetypes of pet–owner relationship characteristics as a means of describing risk-preparedness foci and risk propensities within disaster contexts. Understanding those differences as detailed archetypes can help emergency services more effectively target pet owners through reframing disaster risk and preparedness communications in relation to prominent characteristics of relationship archetypes. We argue that this approach can improve the effectiveness of risk and preparedness communications by increasing pet owners' receptivity to, and cognitive involvement with, message content.     

People's risk perception of glacial lake outburst flooding: a case of Tsho Rolpa Lake,Nepal

Previous research indicates that people's perception of risk from a particular hazard positively influences their adoption of effective mitigation strategies and responses. This research investigates the risk perceptions of people living downstream from Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake of Nepal. Field surveys revealed that people living beneath the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake possess a low risk perception despite the probability of a glacial lake outburst at their location. Further investigation reveals that many individuals have made no adjustments in response to the potential disaster. The low risk perception on the part of the riverine population is chiefly attributed to the cry-wolf effect of the 1997 evacuation that followed an inaccurate prediction of a Tsho Rolpa outburst. Previous remediation structures were kept in place, but appear to have created a false sense of security among those at risk. This overconfidence in the rudimentary efforts employed thus far is illustrated by the fact that many residents have moved their infrastructure even closer to the river channel in recent years. Partial mitigation efforts have muted people's perceptions of the environmental risk and have therefore increased the vulnerability of the communities to a probable outburst flood.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

Is there a trade-off between households’ precautions,mitigations and public protection for flood risk?

This paper evaluates willingness-to-pay (WTP) for flood insurance and floodgate installation in Tainan, Taiwan, and finds that household flood precaution (observing the water level) has a minor effect in terms of increasing the WTP for flood insurance, rather than decreasing it. The reason for this is that people who have public flood protection nearby do not lower their WTP for floodgate and insurance, and those who live near the water source of floods and exhibit precautionary behavior have higher risk perceptions and intend to pay more. The adopted mitigation (having sandbags or other barriers) will not affect the intention to further mitigate or buy insurance. This also means that adverse selection in relation to flood insurance is not serious in the flood-prone area of Tainan. Households may be aware of the limitation of public flood protection though the precautionary behavior, and found that flood insurance can compensate for most of the flood damage.     

Flood vulnerability and commercial activities: the case of the city of Girona, Spain

This paper is based on a case study of the city of Girona in Catalonia, Spain, and analyses the vulnerability of commercial establishments to floods caused by the Onyar River. A mapping and statistical approach (cluster analysis) was applied to the information obtained from 568 questionnaires answered by the shops and the workshops located in the flood risk area. The results obtained allowed the authors to determine five different flood vulnerability profiles of the commercial establishments analysed. These profiles paint a picture of little individual adaptation to the risk and the possibility of suffering, sooner or later, large economic losses due to overflowing of the Onyar River. The authors established a methodology for carrying out a detailed multidimensional analysis of the flood vulnerability of the city's commercial establishments in order to provide the foundations for local government policies and for strategies for shop owners to reduce flood vulnerability.