Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.     

The accounting method and application of CO2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO₂ emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers’ and the consumers’ responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals（e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries）.In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.     

Ecological and Economic System Health Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis： A Case Study of Northwest Region, China

Due to the increasingly serious environmental pollution and destruction,especially humans’ unreasonable activities,the ecological and economic system(EES) issues of Northwest region in China have attracted more and more attention of the researchers.Aiming at evaluating its ecological and economic system health,a multi-objective evaluation framework called PressureState-Response(PSR) was established to describe the ecological and economic health situations.Meanwhile,an integrative set pair model combining set pair analysis(SPA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) was proposed to assess the ecological and economic system.Then the EES status of five northwest provinces(Shanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang) of Northwest region in China was evaluated during 1985 to 2009.The EES development trends of five provinces are obtained.In general,the health values of five provinces showed a rising trend.The health values of five provinces grew rapidly during 1985 to 2000.After 2000,the health values of five provinces still followed the present growth trend,but the growth is relatively smooth.The results show that the method proposed is effective for assessing the health of ecological and economic system.     

An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s Carbon Emissions:Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990 2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions.The research results show that:carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve,but that of the western region does not.On this basis,the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions,and describe a specific time path.     

Temporal-spatial change and driving mechanism for regional difference of domestic tourism in China

By using the variation coefficient,Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient,this paper makes preliminary exploration of temporalspatial change features and driving mechanism for regional differences of domestic tourism in China from 1995 to 2009.According to the results,we drew the following conclusions:(1)The regional difference of domestic tourism in China tends to be narrowing generally,and is less than that of inbound tourism,playing an important role in narrowing the overall gap of regional tourism in China.(2)The regional internal difference features:inter-provincial difference in the eastern region and difference among the eastern,central and western regions are comparatively obvious and demonstrate a significantly shrinking tendency,the change tendency is consistent with the change tendency of overall difference and exercises a decisive role in overall difference,whereas the inter-provincial difference in the central and western regions is small and relatively stable,having less influence on the overall difference.(3)The temporal-spatial change in regional difference is featured by:low-level provinces occupy a majority and are concentrated in the central and western regions,showing a tendency of narrowing difference;high-level provinces are concentrated in the eastern region,showing a tendency of spreading to the central and western regions;spatial pattern of regional difference demonstrates 4 types,i.e."proliferation type","polarization type","quiescence type"and"collapse type."(4)The driving force for regional difference of domestic tourism in China comes down to 3 aspects:regional socio-economic attribute,regional transport accessibility level and regional development policy.     

Pollutant emissions,energy consumption and economic development in China:Evidence from dynamic panel data

This study investigates the relationship among pollutant emissions,energy consumption and economic development in China during the period 1982-2007 by using a one-step GMM-system model under a multivariable panel VAR framework,controlling for capital stock and labor force.Regarding the data for all 28 provinces as a whole,we find that there is a unidirectional positive relationship running from pollutant emission to economic development and a unidirectional negative relationship between pollutant emission and energy consumption.Based on traditional economic planning,the panel data of28 provinces are divided into two cross-province groups.It is discovered that in the eastern coastal region of China,there is only a unidirectional positive causal relationship leading from economic development to pollutant emission;while in the central and western regions,there are the unidirectional Granger causal relationships between pollutant emission and energy consumption,as well as between pollutant emission and economic development.There is also a unique unidirectional causal relationship running from economic development to energy consumption,which does not appear in the eastem coastal region or in China as a whole.     

Spatial Variation and Space Optimization of the Development of China’s Circular Economy

China's circular economy is still at the initial stage, whose development has many difficulties and problems requiring immediate resolution theoretically and practically. Due to the differences of regions on the scale of land, endowment of resources, economic basis and cultural background, the developmental levels and capabilities of circular economy are inevitably different. Based on establishing the indicator system for assessing the developmental level of regional circular economy, spatial variation of China's circular economy is measured by the quantitative measurement using principal component analysis, and the existing problems are also analyzed and discussed. On one hand, the differences of the development capability of the circular economy of different provinces (cities) are profound in China; ①Difference between the first category (strong) and the second category (relatively strong) is 1.1264 points. Difference between the second category and the third category (relatively weak) is 0.3867 points. Difference between the third category and the fourth category (weak) is 1.0238 points. Difference between the first category and the fourth category reaches up to 2.0869 points. Average difference between the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively strong and the area where the developmental level of circular economy is relatively weak is 1.3617 points. ②The differences of the distribution of the areas, with different development capability of circular economy, which are located in the three economic regions of China, are also profound. The regions with a relatively strong development capability of circular economy are mainly located in the eastern economic area, which account for 22.58% of the whole regions, while only account for 12.90% in the middle and western economic areas. On the contrary, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy account for 48.39% in the middle and western area, while account for 16.13% in the eastern area. On the other hand, among regions with different development capability of circular economy, the regions with a relatively weak development capability of circular economy are in a dominant position, which accountfor 64.52% of all the provinces (cities), which indicates that the development of the China's circular economy still has a long way to go. Though certain achievements have been made in the development of China's circular economy, in general, there are still some obstacles to be tacked in the development of China's circular economy which require the economic, legal and administrative methods.     

Comprehensive Assessment on Tourism Eco-environment of Gansu Province Based on Spatial Data

The article studies tourism eco-environment of 14 cities of Gangsu Province, China, based on GIS with many kinds of multi-subject spatial database, such as remote sensing data, observation data and literature data. The research results were as follows. First, spatial features of 14 cities＇ tourism eco-environment are displayed with five levels of vulnerability respectively. The vulnerability in Gansu becomes worse from Gannan City, located in southern Gansu to Hexi Corridor which lies in northwestern Gansu. Second, the areas of above the middle vulnerability level make up 75% of the total areas of Gansu Province. Third, more than 70% of high-level human and natural tourism resources are in the areas with high vulnerability eco-environment. Fourth, it is crucial to develop comprehensive tourism industry in order to improve the harmonious development between tourism industry and eco-environment in Gansu Province.     

Urbanization in Western China

China has experienced considerable urbanization in the past 60 years,especially since the implementation of the Economic Reform and Opening-up Policy in 1978.In 1949,there were only 132 cities with an urban population of 27.4 million,while in 2008 China had 652 cities with a total urban population of 606 million.Such urbanization is attributed to the boost in the number of cities and the urban population.Urban expansion enhanced geographic inequality between the three major regions in China.Compared with the eastern and central regions,western China only has 19%of the total cities and 18%of the urban population.The urbanization rate was 37.2%for the western region in 2008,while it reached 53.3%for the eastern regions and 45.3%for central China.Using a geographic information system(GIS)and statistical analyses,this study aims at explaining the structure and spatial development of urbanization,and highlighting the current issues of urban inequality in western China during the past two decades.The paper drew following conclusions:(1)Urbanization disparities between eastern and western China have become increasingly obvious,but seem to be evolving slowly since the establishment of the government’s Western Development Priority Policy in 2000.(2)Cities of various sizes were expanded in western China,and the main factors affecting the urbanization are population numbers and density,government investment and geographic conditions.(3)Current patterns of urbanization in the western region are distributed unevenly between provinces.     

Analysis of transportation carbon emissions and its potential for reduction in China

The transportation industry is an essential sector for carbon emissions mitigation.This paper firstly used the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method to establish factors decomposition model on China’s transportation carbon emission.Then,a quantitative analysis was performed to study the factors influencing China’s transportation carbon emissions from 1991 to 2008,which are identified as transportation energy efficiency,transportation structure and transportation development.The results showed that:(1)The impact of transportation development on transportation carbon emissions showed pulling function.Its contribution value to carbon emissions remained at high growth since 1991 and showed an exponential growth trend.(2)The impact of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions showed promoting function in general,but its role in promoting carbon emissions decreased year by year.And with the continuous optimization of transportation structure,the promoting effect decreased gradually and showed the inversed"U"trend.(3)The impact of transportation energy efficiency on transportation carbon emissions showed a function of inhibition before pulling.In order to predict the potential of carbon emission reduction,three scenarios were set.Analysis of the scenarios showed that if greater intensity emission reduction measures are taken,the carbon emissions will reduce by 31.01 million tons by 2015 and by 48.81 million tons by 2020.     

Multiple Effects of Energy Issues and Countermeasures： A Case of Shandong Province

Energy is now becoming the bottleneck of urban and regional development. The paper takes Shandong Province, one of the most energy consuming provinces in China, as an example, uses quantity methods such as SPSS （Stastics Package for Social Science） cluster sampling and regression analysis, and applies quantity analysis, to analyze the situation of energy issues in Shandong province. The conflicts between the quick industrialization and increasing extensive economic development, between urban population and energy consuming per head, between the infinite energy consuming desire and the low level of managing system, and between the unstable world energy supply and the limited energy storage in China are the main factors of energy crisis in Shandong, which not only results in energy shortage, but also becomes the barrier of economic and social development. In order to ensure sufficient energy supply for Shandong province in the 21 st century, we should take countermeasures, such as changing the economic development model, pursuing a multiple and high quality energy strategy, improving the intensive urbanization strategy, and building a scientific energy system.     

Analysis on the Evolution of Regional Economic Disparity in the West Coast of the Strait

With the implementation of reform and opening-up, the overall economy of China has made brilliant achievements; meanwhile, however, the economic disparity has been enlarging among some regions, and between the city and the countryside. The existence and evolution of this kind of economic disparity is concerned with social stability, sustainable development and the construction of harmonious society, which has gradually become the hotspot in social economic development. The West Coast of the Strait （WCS） located in southeast littoral areas is adjacent to the Pearl and Yangtze River Delta in the south and north and faces Taiwan Province in the east. The stability and development of this region has vital political and economic meaning in the social economic development of our country. It has important theoretical meaning and practical value to research the form, characteristics and evolution of regional economic disparity in the WCS. Based on insightful analysis on existing study results on the WCS, the paper defines the connotation and extension. By a series of absolute and comparative relative evaluation indexes and taking the WCS since 1992 as the study object, the paper makes analysis on different scales including three regions, four regions, 20 cities and 152 counties, quantitatively evaluates the level, characteristics and evolution of the regional economic disparity and compares the regional economic disparity on different scales. The main conclusions are as follows： the variation trend of the absolute disparity of the whole region is obvious and stable, which has presented an inflating trend; the comparative variation trend on a large scale has waved, The comparative disparity of the three regions increased annually from 1992 to around 2000, which had a decreasing trend from around 2000 to 2005; the comparative variation trend on a small scale was not stable, which showed an annual increase of four regions, 20 cities and 152 counties from 1992 to around 2003 and a decrease from around 2003 to 2005; the     

China＇s Land Carrying Capacity Based on Man-grain Relationships

With population growth and increasing pressure on land resources, land carrying capacity （LCC） and food safety have been attracting great attention worldwide. From the point of man-grain relationship and by establishing LCC and land carrying capacity index （LCCI） models, this article firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamics of LCC of China from 1949 to 2005 at county, provincial and national levels. Choosing 2005 as a representative year, this article then evaluates the LCC of 264 pastoral regions （semipastoral regions）, 663 urban regions and 592 poverty stricken regions of the country. The results show that： （1） from 1949 to 2005, with the increase of grain production, the LCC of China has been improved conspicuously, but due to the rapid population growth, the production can only maintain a low level grain consumption; （2） over the past 25 years （1980-2005）, the number of population overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the mangrain relationship has been improved gradually, but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China; （3） at county level, there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 accounting for 68.26% of the total counties of the country and where were 649 million people lived, while in 1990, 2000 and 2005, the number of overloading counties were 1066, 1133 and 1087 respectively, which shows that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years; as for spatial distribution, the surplus counties were mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions, such as Northeast Plain, North China Plain, middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, and overloading counties were mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity, such as Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau and economically developed urban regions, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai; （4） animal husbandry improved greatly the LCC of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions, while urban regions were overloading for increasing population pressure and more than half of poverty stricken regions were overloading due to critical natural environment and poor economic conditions.     

Target Gap of Emission Reduction for China:Analysis based on Elastic Decoupling

The present paper analyzes historically the relationship between carbon emission and economic development by different stages through adopting elastic decoupling methods and Tapio evaluation criteria along with a comparison with the national Five Year Plans. The analysis shows that the influencing factors to the relationship between carbon emission and economy in China are different, and economic development and carbon emission have less connection in the recent 30 years of reform and opening-up in China. It is a difficult task to realize the promise that we will reduce carbon emission by 40%-50% in 2020 based on the data from historical experience and different expectations for economic development from economists. Through constructing the calcula- tion model of carbon emission intensity gap according to different development scenarios, the analysis shows that economic growth, infrastructure investment and further development of industrial-ization are the main drivers to the increase of carbon emission, technological progress, and particularly, the reduction of energy consumption is the primary means to reduce carbon emission in China. It is imperative to transform the economic growth pattern, and it is a grand task to perform and there is a long way to go for China to maintain economic growth and reduce carbon intensity.     

On the Laws and Causes of Socio-economic Territorial Differentiation in Minority Areas in China

On the basis of applying quantitative and qualitative approaches as well as GIS technology, this paper established an index system to make a comprehensive evaluation on socioeconomic development of minority areas in China. The result showed that socio-economic development in minority area presents a series of characteristics that the north is high and the south is low, center-margin pattern is obvious and the areas with middle and lower development indices are distributed centrally and continuously. However, the causes of the socioeconomic characteristics mainly include natural conditions, economic development basic, population cultural quality, regional combination and development conditions of mineral and energy resources, informal institutional factors and distribution of major traffic lines.     

Consideration of some key issues of carbon market development in China

The global carbon market has developed rapidly with two significant trends of globalization and financialization.Deriving economic interest is a nation driven-force behind the international climate negotiation and carbon market.According to deeply analyzed relationships between the carbon market and the key subjects of the climate negotiation,this article reveals that promoting the development of the global carbon market is one of the core interests of developed nations.Based on the background of international carbon market development and domestic carbon market pilots,four suggestions to the key issues of China’s carbon market are provided.The first is that the goal of China’s carbon market should be in line with and contribute to the national objectives and policies addressing climate change.The second is that the Chinese carbon market should mainly target the emission reduction of production-sectors,and contribute to their upgradation and transformation.The third is mat the development of the nation-wide carbon market in China should first take the principle of unbalanced regional development into consideration.The fourth is that linking China’s carbon market to the international market should keep steps in line with international opening-up of China’s financing system.     

Industrial Carbon Emissions Status and Analysis Based on Energy Consumption

With frequent disastrous weathers and increasingly prominent GHG effects in recent years, normal existence and development of mankind are facing unprecedented threats and challenges. GHG emissions mitigation for the global climate changes has been the focus of concern of the world. As the biggest developing country and the second largest country of carbon-emission, China attaches importance to the carbon emission reduction. The major GHG component is carbon dioxide and in China, the emission of carbon dioxide is mainly from industrial production. In the paper, the status and trend of Co2 emission from industrial departments, high-carbon emission and its specific industries are shown in statistics. Meanwhile, the policy environment, industrial organization structure and technology of carbon high emission are all discussed based on practical situations in these departments and industries. At the end, through the analysis of gray correlation, correlativity is explored for both fossil energy consumption and total carbon emission, and also for the production value and carbon emission of each industrial sector. Some policy proposals for the establishment of low-carbon industries and transition of economic development pattern are set forth.     

Comparison of temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Ozone Pollution at Ground Level in the Eastern China

Monitoring data from ozone（O3） automatic stations in three typical cities with different climatic areas in the southern and northern parts of eastern China are used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of ozone pollution at ground level. The results show that ozone pollution level has distinct regional differences and the concentration in the suburbs is higher than that in the urban areas. The seasonal variation of ozone concentration in different climatic areas is greatly affected by the variation of precipitation. Ozone concentration in Shenyang and Beijing , in the temperate zone, has one perennial peak concentration, occurring in early summer, May or June. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou, in sub-tropical zone, has two peak values year round. The highest values occur in October and the secondary high value in June. The ozone season in the south is longer than that in the north. The annual average daily peak value of ozone concentrations in different climates usually occur around 3 pm. The diurnal variation range of ozone concentration declines with the increase of latitude. Ozone concentration does not elevate with the increase of traffic flow. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou has a distinct reverse relation to CO and NOx. This complicated non-linearity indicates that the equilibrium of ozone photochemical reaction has regional differences. Exceeding the rate of Beijing＇s lh ozone concentration is higher than that of Guangzhou, whereas the average 8h ozone level is lower than that of Guangzhou, indicating that areas in low latitude are more easily affected by moderate ozone concentrations and longer exposure. Thus, China should work out standards for 8h ozone concentration.     

Global Research Trends Related to CO2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is more prominent) , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed countries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other researchers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of "carbon transfer" and "carbon leakage", the perspective and methodology for allocating regional CO2 emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expression and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.