中国太阳能热水器成本分析方法与应用研究

太阳能热水器在中国已经商业化,是较为成熟的可再生能源利用技术。中国幅员辽阔,各地区自然、社会经济条件差异较大,其经济可行性需进一步分析。本文针对户用太阳能热水器,建立了基于有效利用热量的总成本现值分析方法、净成本现值分析方法,计算了中国27个省会城市(或直辖市)太阳能热水器热水供应成本和净成本现值为零的初始投资。结果表明,中国太阳能热水器热水供应成本地区间差异大,推广政策应当因地制宜;太阳能热水器与风电、光伏发电、生物质能发电相比成本较低,其大规模应用有利于以低成本实现既定的可再生能源目标;贴现率和生活电价对太阳能热水器初始投资选择影响显著;收入水平低是农村地区太阳能热水器应用的重要制约因素。本文的结论对中国太阳能热水器推广政策体系设计具有重要启示。     

碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究

中国承诺2017年启动全国性碳排放交易系统,在碳交易机制下,可再生能源项目可以通过CCER交易获得额外收益。由于碳价格是随着市场条件而随机波动的,碳价波动性使得可再生能源发电项目投资具有了期权性质的权利,即未来不确定性可能包含更高的价值。可再生能源企业在做投资决策时,可以选择立即投资,也可以选择推迟投资,等待更多信息来提高项目收益,而立即投资的项目回报必须足够高以克服等待期权的蕴含价值。为了研究碳价波动下可再生能源项目投资,本文采用实物期权法的三叉树模型,测算了三类可再生能源发电项目投资的npv及其实物期权价值(ROV)。根据延迟实物期权决策规则,三类项目均执行期权延迟投资决策。本文还计算了在无政府补贴和有政府补贴两种情形下,三种可再生能源项目在不同时点的栏杆价格,以确定项目的投资时机。栏杆价格随着政府补贴的增加而逐步下降,说明政府补贴会促进可再生能源项目投资;栏杆价格随着时间的推移而逐步上升,意味着时间跨度越大,不确定性越大,需要更高碳市场价格来确定投资时机。本文对影响可再生能源项目投资因素敏感性进行了分析,结果表明碳价波动率与可再生能源发电项目的栏杆价格呈现正相关的关系,说明碳价波动性增加了企业投资的期权价值,却推迟了企业开展投资的时间。随着中国碳交易体系的不断完善,碳价波动幅度会趋于平稳,从而促进发电企业进行可再生能源发电项目投资。     

“后补贴”时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴策略研究

新能源汽车补贴是政府为了发展新能源汽车产业所采取的一项激励政策。现有文献虽在微观层面上研究了政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,但多将补贴政策限定为固定额度的政府补贴,未考虑中国特殊的两级政府补贴政策尤其是地方政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,且在补贴政策的设计上未与新能源汽车的实际推广目标相结合。基于"后补贴"时代的地方政府既要实现新能源汽车推广目标又要保证补贴政策合理退坡的双重现实要求。本文依据当前中央政府为新能源汽车提供固定补贴,地方政府提供配套比例补贴以及制定价格补贴比例上限的现实情形,综合考虑新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用、中央政府补贴等因素对地方新能源汽车推广的影响,构建了地方政府为实现既定新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略模型。研究表明:(1)对于不同效用水平的消费者,地方政府价格补贴比例上限和配套比例补贴对新能源汽车零售价格所起的作用不同;(2)地方政府补贴政策只有在小于或等于其最优配套比例或价格补贴比例上限时才会对新能源汽车推广产生正向影响。最后,还结合北京新能源汽车推广的实际情况进行了数值模拟,给出了在不同新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用下北京市政府为实现新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略。数值模拟结果表明,当前北京新能源汽车存在地方配套比例过高、价格补贴比例上限过高等问题。在后补贴时代,北京市政府可依据新能源汽车成本下降、充电设施逐步完善、消费者初始效用提升等因素变化,对补贴进行适当退坡。数值模拟表明,所构造的最优补贴策略模型对后补贴时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴政策的制定具有较高的参考价值。     

考虑环境成本的燃煤发电与光伏发电成本比较研究

燃煤发电由于具有成本优势,近年来快速发展,在保障中国电力供应和国民经济发展方面发挥了不可替代的作用,但是也面临着巨大的环境压力;光伏发电对于调整中国电力结构、缓解环境压力具有重要意义,但因发电成本居高不下制约了其快速发展。考虑燃煤发电的环境成本和光伏发电的学习效应,本文构造了燃煤发电和光伏发电成本函数,对燃煤发电和光伏发电成本进行了预测和比较。研究结果表明,2012年考虑环境成本的燃煤发电成本为0.825 4元/k Wh,远高于不考虑环境成本0.227元/k Wh,燃煤发电成本较符合以时间为自变量的对数函数,光伏发电的成本较符合以时间为自变量的二次函数;考虑环境成本的燃煤发电成本呈逐年上升趋势,光伏发电成本呈逐年下降趋势。进一步的比较发现,考虑环境成本时的燃煤发电成本与光伏发电将于2019-2020年间趋于一致。也就是说,考虑燃煤发电的环境成本时,光伏发电的成本优势将很快显现。但是,由于燃煤发电技术进步、燃煤发电完全成本计价的困难、光伏发电发展的商业模式不清晰和基础设施不完善等因素的影响,光伏发电要真正替代燃煤发电还有很长的路要走。     

我国太阳能光伏发电产业发展方向及产业政策

随着新世纪的到来,出于对环保和未来能源供应的考虑,可再生能源在世界能源消费中的比重逐渐加大。其中,太阳能光伏发电技术的发展和应用颇为世人所瞩目。本文从国有光伏产品市场特点出发,分析了国产光伏系统在市场竞争中的优势和劣势所在,指出了当前我国太阳能光伏发电系统企业在市场中缺乏竞争力的原因。在此基础上,提出相应的解决方案。     

未来十年我国新能源与可再生能源投资需求巨大

据国家计委估计 ,“十五”计划期间我国新能源与可再生能源 (Ｎ＆ＲＥ)开发共需投资 2 5 5亿元 ,5年间平均每年 5 1亿元 ;而根据政策方案估计 ,需新增投资 318亿元 ,平均每年为 64亿元。在这种投资规模支持下 ,我国新能源与可再生能源新增开发规模可达 430万吨 (基础方案 )和 5 2 4万吨 (政策方案 )标煤。平均计算 ,吨标准煤投资 5 930元和 34 2 3元。2 0 0 1～ 2 0 10年 ,根据基础方案估计 ,我国新能源与可再生能源开发需投资 5 36亿元 ,10年间平均每年 5 4亿元 ;根据政策方案估计 ,需新增投资 643亿元 ,平均每年为 64亿元。投资强度所以较高 ,主要是由新能源与可再生能源技术特点决定的。大多数新能源与可再生能源技术都属于高投入低产出的项目 ,如光伏发电、风力发电和太阳能热水器等的单位投资高达 6.5万元 /千瓦、0 .9万元 /千瓦和 0 .0 8万元 /平方米以上 ,而实际运行时间又很少 ,年均只有 2 0 0 0～ 30 0 0多小时 ,从而导致产出低投入高 ,但是这不意味着这些技术效益不好。国家计委在《中国新能源与可再生能源“十五”计划及 ...     

中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价

在应对气候变化的背景下,是否对已经投入运营的燃煤电厂进行改造,加装碳捕获与封存技术(CCS),是一个重要的低碳投资决策问题。本文针对已投入运营的燃煤电厂进行CCS改造的投资决策问题,从成本节约的角度出发,综合考虑CCS面临的诸多不确定因素,将序贯投资决策的实物期权方法与Monte-Carlo模拟相结合,建立了基于偏均衡分析的CCS投资评价模型,研究电力企业投资CCS技术改造现有火电可以带来的成本节约收益价值和温室气体减排量,结合案例,论述了燃煤电厂投资CCS改造的期权价值和投资风险。并应用该模型分析了补贴政策对CCS投资行为的影响。模拟计算结果显示:在现有参考碳价格水平下,基准燃煤电厂投资改造CCS的风险很大,CCS改造投资被放弃的比例接近35%,可见现有的技术水平和政策框架不足以促进企业对现有燃煤电厂进行CCS改造投资。对比政府补贴投资和补贴发电两种政策的效果,在总预算补贴额度较小时,政府补贴企业的研发投入效果要优于直接补贴发电的效果。从评价结果看:首先,在CCS技术发展初期,我国政府应该侧重鼓励大型电力企业对CCS技术的消化学习,通过补贴研发投入,降低技术使用成本,为CCS技术未来的大规模采用打下基础。其次,一个较为有效的碳排放交易机制的构建,可以在长期促进国内电厂对CCS进行改造投资。     

排污补贴视角下的养殖户环保投资影响因素研究——基于沪、苏、浙生猪养殖户的调查分析

随着畜牧业的发展,畜牧业污染问题日益突出。解决污染问题的关键是增强养殖户参与,鼓励他们自发进行环保投资,而政府补贴对于具有外部性的生产投资活动均具有刺激作用。为了量化分析影响农户环保投资行为的各因素的作用程度,特别是政府补贴的激烈效果,本文运用调查结合实证的研究方法,在农户模型的分析框架上,以沪、苏、浙地区394户生猪养殖户的调查数据为基础,应用有序logit模型验证排污补贴、养殖户生产经营特征、环保需求特征对养殖户环保投资的作用。研究表明除了政府补贴会刺激养殖户的环保投资外,养殖规模对环保投资有激励作用,而养殖年限却会抑制环保投资。养殖户的个人特征,对污染的认知及参与污染治理的意愿也对环保投资水平有正的影响,但作用效果不明显。在此基础上,本文提出了合理制定和推进排污补贴政策,以"离牧补助"等形式促使养殖规模和环保要求不符的养殖户退出养殖业,加大畜牧业污染危害的宣传力度以及政府加强对污染处理技术的研发投资,从而降低处理成本等政策建议。     

农户参与农业生态转型:预期效益还是政策激励?

农户作为农业生产经营的基本主体,农户参与农业生态转型行为是我国农业转型的关键。预期效益和政策激励是影响农户参与农业生态转型的两个重要方面,两者作用如何是值得探讨的重要命题。本文基于山东省两县级市507份设施蔬菜农户调查数据,分析农户参与农业生态转型的影响因素,并运用ISM模型判定各影响因素的内在关联关系和层次结构。研究发现:第一,预期效益中的环保型技术成本预期、废弃物回收利用成本预期对农户农业生态转型参与行为具有阻碍作用,预期效益中的收入预期对农户农业生态转型参与意愿具有促进作用。第二,政策激励中的政府监管和政策补贴对农户农业生态转型参与行为具有明显的靶向指导作用。第三,环保型技术成本预期、废弃物回收利用成本预期等预期效益因素是表层直接因素;政府监管、政策补贴等政策激励因素是深层根源因素。因此,要推进优质优价农产品市场机制形成,提供农业生态转型示范模式。推动设施蔬菜生产的绿色化、优质化、品牌化建设,加强按照环境友好型方式生产出来的绿色蔬菜的辨识度。重视绿色蔬菜示范基地建设,探索可复制可推广的农业生态转型模式,增强农户进一步参与农业生态转型信心。同时,政策约束与政策激励结合,落实农业生态转型政策激励。运用大数据科学制定农业政策,对污染环境、影响农产品质量安全的农业生产方式要严格禁止,并采取经济惩罚措施。对环境友好型生态农业生产方式要加以鼓励引导,对生态循环农业生产给予适当补贴,同时强化政策执行和舆论监督。     

基于结构方程模型的农户清洁能源应用行为决策研究

推进农户应用清洁能源对于促进农村生态建设至关重要。本文将农户清洁能源应用行为视为是一个"外部情境因素-内部心理因素-农户清洁能源应用行为"的过程,基于环境行为理论和技术接受模型,构建出农户清洁能源应用行为影响因素概念模型。利用江西省农户的调查数据,运用结构方程模型从农户购买行为和使用行为两个维度,研究农户清洁能源应用行为的影响因素,以及这些因素的作用机理。研究表明,情境因素(经济激励政策、自愿活动、宣传教育、清洁能源产品属性)以农户感知为中介,进而正向影响农户清洁能源使用行为,从众心理、行为便利性直接正向影响农户清洁能源使用行为;生态价值观和感知因素在经济激励政策与农户清洁能源购买行为之间起到部分中介效应,行为便利对农户清洁能源购买行为有直接正向影响;相对于经济激励政策,农户自愿活动对提升农户生态价值观会更有效;在影响农户感知的四个情景因素(经济激励政策、自愿活动、宣传教育、清洁能源产品属性)中,自愿活动对农户感知的正向影响程度最大;对农户清洁能源购买行为正向影响程度最大的是经济激励政策,对农户清洁能源使用行为正向影响程度最大的是行为便利性。基于上述结论,提出以下政策建议:政府要扩大清洁能源产品补贴的范围,加大农户购买清洁能源产品的补贴力度,降低农户购买清洁能源产品的成本;加强清洁能源知识、环境保护的宣传教育,提升农村居民的环境责任感,增强农村居民的生态环境价值观;完善农村清洁能源应用服务体系,提升农户应用清洁能源的易用性感知;充分发挥清洁能源示范村的辐射效应,增强农户应用清洁能源有用性感知;引导基层村干部、党员或环保意识强的农户率先应用清洁能源,在从众心理作用下,促使更多的农户应用清洁能源。     

Stand-alone hybrid energy system for sustainable development in rural India

Renewable energy system such as solar, wind, small hydro and biogas generators can be used successfully in rural off-grid locations where grid connection is not possible. The main objectives of this study are to examine which configuration is the most cost-effective for the village. One renewable energy model has been developed for supplying electric power for 124 rural households of an off-grid rural village in eastern India. The load demand of the village was determined by the survey work, and the loads were divided into three sub-heads such as primary load I, primary load II and deferred load. Locally available energy sources such as solar radiation and biogas derived from cow dung and kitchen wastes were used as sensitivity variables. This study is unique as it has not considered any diesel generator for supplying unmet electricity to the households; rather it completely depends on locally available renewable resources. Here in this paper, two different models were taken and their cost and environmental benefit were discussed and compared. The net present cost, levelised cost of energy and operating cost for various configurations of models were determined. The minimum cost of energy of $0.476/kWh with lowest net present cost of $386,971 and lowest operating cost ($21,025/year) was found with stand-alone solar–biogas hybrid system.     

Levellised electricity cost for wind and PV–diesel hybrid system in Oman at selected sites

Solar and wind energy data available for Oman indicate that these two resources are likely to play an important role in the future energy generation in this country. In this paper, a model is designed to assess wind and solar power cost per kWh of energy produced using different sizes of wind machines and photovoltaic (PV) panels at two sites in Oman, which then can be generalised for other locations in Oman. Hourly values of wind speed and solar radiation recorded for several years are used for these locations. The wind profiles from Thumrait and Masirah island are modelled using the Weibull distribution. The cost of wind-based energy is calculated for both locations using different sizes of turbines. Furthermore, this paper presents a study carried out to investigate the economics of using PV only and PV with battery as an energy fuel saver in two villages. The results show that the PV energy utilisation is an attractive option with an energy cost of the selected PV ranges between 0.128 and 0.144 $/kWh at 7.55% discount rate compared to an operating cost of 0.128–0.558 $\kWh for diesel generation, considering the capital cost of diesel units as sunk.     

Enhancing viability of biofuel-based decentralized power projects for rural electrification in India

Decentralized power generation, using locally available biofuels from non-edible oilseeds, is an option for rural electrification in many developing countries. However, due to prevailing high price of non-edible oilseeds, such as Jatropha curcas, the cost of electricity generation is very high. This paper provides detailed financial analysis of straight vegetable oil (SVO)-based decentralized power project and proposes an innovative model for enhancing their financial viability. While for implementing agency operational cost recovery is the key for viability, affordable tariff is crucial for end-users. The paper attempts to estimate minimum desired price of electricity from the stakeholders' (producer and users) perspective using data gathered from selected operational SVO-based power generation projects in India. Analysis carried out in this paper indicates that operating the decentralized power plant at higher capacity utilization factor, by introduction of productive load, and differentiated tariffs for commercial and domestic consumers may not alone be sufficient to achieve the financial viability. The paper proposes an innovative integrated model of using biogas, obtained from the by-product de-oiled cake of non-edible oilseeds, as a feedstock for power generation, instead of using the SVO in engines. This reduces the fuel cost of power generation, thereby helping to bring down the tariff within the paying capacity of rural consumers. The main produce, viz. extracted non-edible oil, which was otherwise used as fuel for generating power, can be sold in local market for earning revenue, thereby enhancing the project’s economic viability. This paper sets forth the proposed integrated model as a viable biofuel-based decentralized power project for sustainable rural development in areas with adequate availability of oilseeds.     

Stand-alone PV-hydrogen energy system in Taleghan-Iran using HOMER software: optimization and techno-economic analysis

One of the most attractive features of hydrogen as an energy carrier is that it can be produced from water. Hydrogen has the highest energy content per unit mass as compared to chemical fuel and can be substituted. Its burning process is non-polluting, and it can be used in the fuel cells to produce both electricity and useful heat. Photovoltaic arrays can be used in supplying the water electrolysis systems by their energy requirements. During the daylight hours, the sunlight on the photovoltaic array converts into electrical energy which can be used for electrolyzer. The hydrogen produced by the electrolyzer is compressed and stored in hydrogen vessel and provides energy for the fuel cell to meet the load when the solar energy is insufficient. This study investigates a stand-alone power system that consists of PV array as power supply and electrolyzer. They have been integrated and worked at the Taleghan renewable energies’ site in Iran. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables simulation software has been used to carry out the optimal design and techno-economic viability of the energy system. The simulation results demonstrate that energy system is composed of 10-kW PV array, 3.5-kW electrolyzer, 0.4-kW proton exchange membrane fuel cell, 2.5-kW inverter, and 60 batteries (100 Ah and 12 V). The total initial capital cost, net present cost, and cost of electricity produced from this energy system are 193,563 US$, 237,509 US$, and 3.35 US$/kWh, respectively.     

Pre-feasibility study of stand-alone hybrid energy systems for applications in eco-houses

In light of rising cost of fossil fuels and fears of its depletion, coupled with the increase in energy demand and the rise in pollution levels, governments worldwide have had to look at alternative energy resources. Combining renewable energy generation like solar power with superior storage and conversion technology such as hydrogen storage, fuel cells and batteries offers a potential solution for a stand-alone power system. The aim of this paper was to assess the techno-economic feasibility of using a hybrid energy system with hydrogen fuel cell for application in an eco-house that will be built in Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman. Actual load data for a typical Omani house of a similar size as the eco-house was considered as the stand-alone load with an average energy consumption of 40 kW/day and 5 kW peak power demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimisation Model for Electric Renewable software was used as a sizing and optimisation tool for the system. It was found that the total annual electrical energy production is 42,255 kW and the cost of energy for this hybrid system is 0.582 $/kW. During daylight time, when the solar radiation is high, the photovoltaics (PV) panels supplied most of the load requirements. Moreover, during the evening time the fuel cell mainly serves the house with the help of the batteries. The proposed system is capable of providing the required energy to the eco-house during the whole year using only the solar irradiance as the primary source.     

“十一五”期间贵州省大气污染减排绩效评估

利用环境经济学方法,对贵州省“十一五”大气污染减排的成本和效益进行定量分析的基础上,对其“十一五”期间大气污染SO2减排绩效进行评估。结果显示：（1）贵州省“十一五”期间SO2减排政策实施后,大气环境质量有所改善,尤其是酸雨pH值上升明显,许多城市的酸雨频率已降低到零;（2）“十一五”期间,贵州省SO2的减排成本为228亿元,SO2的减排收益为27亿元,SO2减排效益大于成本,污染减排约束性指标的倒逼、引导、推动作用开始显现,能源利用效率有所提高,经济结构趋于优化和升级;（3）贵州省火力发电的脱硫装置安装率已达90%以上,表明其大气污染SO2的工程减排空间有限,今后要实现贵州省大气污染减排的刚性约束目标,更多的要从结构减排和管理减排的角度进行     

Optimum design and evaluation of hybrid solar/wind/diesel power system for Masirah Island

This paper addresses the requirements of electrical energy for an isolated island of Masirah in Oman. The paper studied the possibility of using sources of renewable energy in combination with current diesel power plant on the island to meet the electrical load demand. There are two renewable energy sources used in this study, solar and wind energy. This study aimed to design and evaluate hybrid solar/wind/diesel/battery system in terms of cost and pollution. By using HOMER software, many simulation analyses have been proposed to find and optimize different technologies that contain wind turbine, solar photovoltaic, and diesel in combination with storage batteries for electrical generation. Four different hybrid power systems were proposed, diesel generators only, wind/diesel/battery, PV/diesel/battery, and PV/wind/diesel/battery. The analysis of the results shows that around 75 % could reduce the cost of energy by using PV/wind/diesel hybrid power system. Also, the greenhouse emission could be reduced by around 25 % compared with these by using diesel generators system that currently utilize in the Masirah Island. The solar/wind/diesel hybrid system is techno-economically viable for Masirah Island.     

An integrated analysis of production costs and net energy balance of biofuels

Up to now, the “low” price of oil has prevented the development of alternative fuels but with the current high price and increasing scarcity, biofuels could become an economically attractive alternative. However, the economic assessment of biofuels has to take into account total production costs, including impact on agriculture, and the energy balance of first generation alternative fuels (biodiesel and bioethanol). Moreover, plans to produce biofuels from agriculture should not be achieved without considering the latest developments and reforms of the common agricultural policy, which promotes a change towards sustainable rural development based on multifunctional agriculture. From the analysis carried out, it emerges that first generation biofuels do not seem to be the best solution because of high production cost, limited land availability and low net energy balance. Furthermore, only a small quantity of biofuels can be produced as alternative to fossil oil because an incremental production will lead to the rising of agri-food prices. Only second generation biofuels could be a possible solution, although they still require much supplementary research and analysis.     

Sustainable domestic lighting options for poor people—an empirical study

The availability of sustainable and reasonably priced sources of energy for lighting is a prerequisite for the development of rural India. This study attempts to take a close look at the micro-level energy scene and its various options for domestic lighting, considering socio-economic condition of the poor people in rural areas. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per 300 lumen-hour is applied on source–device combinations of lighting and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India, for finding out the low-priced energy sources for sufficient lighting. It is revealed that LED and CFL through solar photovoltaic and electricity should be the best choice of domestic lighting. Most of the households (97 %), even electrified, use kerosene regularly. There is a huge potential of biogas and solar photovoltaic which can overcome the problem of power cut, indoor pollution, carbon emission, etc. Supporting electrification to all households, this study is also justifying about efficient devices and off-grid power generation through SPV for all households and biogas for possible 2300 households. Government should immediately intervene, providing capital subsidy, micro-finance schemes, other credit mechanisms, training to local youths, etc. with adequate infrastructure and organizational development to make the clean energy such as solar home lighting system and biogas plant affordable and accessible by the poor villagers.     

Design,measurement and evaluation of photovoltaic pumping system for rural areas in Oman

In the present paper, the optimum design of a PV system used to operate a water pumping system was determined for Oman. The system design focused on the environmental conditions of Sohar city. The implementation and measurement of the designed system are presented to prove the effectiveness of the proposed system. The results show that the system can provide the required power at peak hours, leading to a substantial reduction in the sizing of the PV system. Consequently, the investment capital costs 2400 USD, and the cost of energy is equal to 0.309 USD/kWh. Furthermore, the results indicate that the system annual yield factor is 2024.66 kWh/kWp and that the capacity factor is 23.05 %, which is encouraging since the latter is typically 21 %. The system capital cost and the cost of energy are worth comparing to a diesel generator. A comparison is made between the proposed system and several others in the literature. The comparison indicated that the system cost of energy is promising.