An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and material flows caused by the Finnish economy using the ENVIMAT model

An environmentally extended input-output (EE-IO) analysis - environmental impacts of material flows caused by the Finnish economy - was carried out in order to improve data on production and consumption in Finland. The study resulted in the ENVIMAT model, which can be used to analyze the relationship between material flows, environmental impacts and the economy. The model is based on monetary and physical input-output tables and an environmental life-cycle impact assessment. This article summarizes the main methodological aspects and findings regarding the material flows and climate impacts caused by the Finnish economy in 2002 and 2005. The Finnish model has relatively detailed input data with 150 industries and 918 products and the data on imports was assessed according to a mixed approach with the help of life-cycle inventory data. The results of the model showed that the Finnish economy uses imported material resources as much as domestic resources. Life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by imports were equivalent to 70-80% of domestic emissions. The GHG emissions embodied in imports (emissions abroad) and exports (emissions within Finland) were of the same magnitude. The analysis showed that the service sector accounted for 44% of GHG emissions caused by the domestic final use of products. Analysis of the results also showed that the indicator of total material requirement (TMR) should not be used for environmental impact comparisons of products and services. In the future, the aim is to use the ENVIMAT model for assessing temporal changes in the economy; for monitoring sustainable development; for planning climate change mitigation; and for identifying important factors in the economy and assessing their impacts.     

Perspectives on Finland’s sustainable consumption and production policy

The Finnish approach that is starting from the basic human needs of food, housing, mobility and related lifestyles enables us to address the social dimension of sustainable development alongside the ecological and economic dimensions. In this context environmental problems cannot be resolved in isolation from people’s everyday lives, as can happen if environmental policies are based purely on emissions.But it is also worth questioning the potential for national SCP programmes in today’s global markets. Over the last ten years, domestic material flows within the Finnish economy have remained fairly constant, with gains in material efficiency cancelled out by increasing levels of material consumption. However, external material flows and the consequent environmental impacts have steadily increased, and the magnitude and environmental impacts of both imports and exports are approximately the same as for domestic flows. This means that the role of external material flows can no longer be ignored in national SCP policies.It is also important to integrate SCP with climate policies. Finland’s national climate and energy strategy is mainly based on the need to reduce CO₂ emissions from energy production and industrial installations, but there is also a need for complementary actions to reduce the carbon footprints caused by private and public consumption.     

广东省交通碳排放核算及影响因素分析

交通领域是二氧化碳排放的重要领域,为研究广东省的交通碳排放及影响因素,利用IPCC（联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会）在温室气体清单指南中提供的方法估算了广东交通碳排放量,并应用LMDI分解法（对数平均指数法）对广东交通碳排放进行因素分解分析.结果表明:① 2001-2010年广东交通碳排放量从1 950.98×104 t增至6 068.41×104 t,其中交通运输业碳排放是广东交通碳排放的主体,私人交通碳排放已成为广东交通碳排放不可忽视的组成部分.② 交通运输业中的公路碳排放量占比最大,占56%~64%;铁路的碳排放量占比最小,占0.6%~1.6%;水运具有较大的节能优势;民航单位周转量碳排放量最高.③ 交通运输业发展水平、运输结构、私人汽车数量规模对广东交通碳排放增加的贡献率分别为68.79%、36.14%、18.66%,是拉动广东交通碳排放增长的主要因素;运输强度与能源强度的贡献率分别为-18.1%、-6.46%,是抑制交通碳排放增长的因素.广东可以通过采取优化交通运输结构、使用替代清洁能源等措施减少交通碳排放.      

Impacts of international trade on carbon flows of forest industry in Finland

Finland is a forested country with a large export oriented forest industry. In addition to domestic forest extraction, roundwood is imported, thus displacing the environmental impacts of harvests. In this paper, we analyse the international carbon flows of forest industries in Finland from a consumption-based perspective. Quantitative analyses are available on trade embedded emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion, and here we address in a similar way the impact of trade on the carbon budget of the forest products sector in Finland. Carbon flows through the forest industry system increased substantially between 1991 and 2005. We show that the annual carbon balance related to forests and forest industry system in Finland functioned as a sink in 1991, whereas in 2005 the system was a sink on a national level, but not on a global level. Through calculating the carbon content in traded forest industry products and emissions embodied in forest industry activities, we further show that the direct impacts of the forest industry in Finland are only a minor fraction of the total CO₂ emissions related to Finnish production. Nearly all of the emissions were caused due to production of exports. Yet, direct carbon dioxide emissions of the industrial production are reported to Finland in the production based inventories.     

Does the Swedish consumer's choice of food influence greenhouse gas emissions?

Consumer's choice of food can influence the environment. In Sweden, in common with many other countries, consumers need to be given information so they can make environmentally informed shopping choices. However, what is the most advantageous dietary choice to lower greenhouse emissions? This study investigates the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food production for food consumed in Sweden annually. Specifically, this study compares greenhouse gas emissions associated with a nutritionally and environmentally sustainable diet with the average consumption of food in Sweden 1999. The study concludes that the change in energy use and greenhouse gas emission associated with this change of diet is negligible. Lowering greenhouse gas emissions by changing food production processes results in more profound changes than teaching consumers to make environmentally correct choices. There is a basic need for a reduction or a replacement of the use of fossil fuels to produce and distribute our food in order to reach any significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases. Swedish agricultural policy does not provide ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Sweden therefore there is an immediate need to design policy instruments with the primary aim of reducing the greenhouse effect.     

Urban CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in Xi’an and Bangalore by commuters: implications for controlling urban transportation carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries

China and India together have more than one third of the world population and are two emerging economic giants of the developing world now experiencing rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. The urban transportation sector is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in China and India. The goal of this study is to analyze the characteristics and factors of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in Chinese and Indian cities and thus to identify strategies for reducing transportation CO₂ emissions and mitigating global climate change. Xi’an in China and Bangalore in India were chosen as two case study cities for their representativeness of major cities in China and India. The trends of CO₂ emissions produced by major traffic modes (electric motors, buses, and cars) in major cities of China and India were predicted and analyzed. The spatial distributions of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in both cities were assessed using spatial analysis module in ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) software. Tobit models were then developed to investigate the impact factors of the emissions. The study has several findings. Firstly, in both cities, the increase of vehicle occupancy could reduce commuting CO₂ emissions by 20 to 50 % or conversely, if vehicle occupancy reduces, an increase by 33.33 to 66.67 %. It is estimated that, with the current increasing speed of CO₂ emissions in Xi’an, the total CO₂ emissions from electric motors, buses, and cars in major cities of China and India will be increased from 135?×?10⁶ t in 2012 to 961?×?10⁶ t in 2030, accounting for 0.37 to 2.67 % of the total global CO₂ emissions of 2013, which is significant for global climate change. Secondly, households and individuals in the outer areas of both cities produce higher emissions than those in the inner areas. Thirdly, the lower emissions in Xi’an are due to the higher density and more compact urban pattern, shorter commuting distances, higher transit shares, and more clean energy vehicles. The more dispersed and extensive urban sprawl and the prevalence of two-wheeler motorbikes (two-wheeler motorbike is abbreviated as “two-wheeler” in the following sections) fueled by gasoline cause higher emissions in Bangalore. Fourthly, car availability, higher household income, living outside the 2nd or Outer Ring Road, distance from the bus stop, and working in the foreign companies in Bangalore are significant and positive factors of commuting CO₂ emissions. Fifthly, “70-20” and “50-20” (this means that generally, 20 % of commuters and households produce 70 % of total emissions in Xi’an and 20 % of commuters and households produce 50 % of total emissions in Bangalore) emission patterns exist in Xi’an and Bangalore, respectively. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce urban CO₂ emissions produced by commuters and further to mitigate global climate change. Firstly, in the early stage of fast urbanization, enough monetary and land investment should be ensured to develop rail transit or rapid bus routes from outer areas to inner areas in the cities to avoid high dependency on cars, thus to implement the transit-oriented development (TOD), which is the key for Chinese and Indian cities to mitigate the impact on global climate change caused by CO₂ emissions. Secondly, in Bangalore, it is necessary to improve public transit service and increase the bus stop coverage combined with car demand controls along the ring roads, in the outer areas, and in the industry areas where Indian foreign companies and the governments are located. Thirdly, Indian should put more efforts to provide alternative cleaner transport modes while China should put more efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions from high emitters.     

Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm

Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO₂.     

京津冀区域生产和消费CO2排放的时空特点分析

区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel demand and solar energy conversion efficiency in European bioethanol production for automotive purposes

Crop derived biofuels such as (bio)ethanol are increasingly applied for automotive purposes. They have, however, a relatively low efficiency in converting solar energy into automotive power. The outcome of life cycle studies concerning ethanol as to fossil fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with such inputs depend strongly on the assumptions made regarding e.g. allocation, inclusion of upstream processes and estimates of environmentally relevant in- and outputs. Peer reviewed studies suggest that CO₂ emissions linked to life cycle fossil fuel input are typically about 2.1–3.0 kg CO₂ kg⁻¹ starch-derived ethanol. When biofuel production involves agricultural practices that are common in Europe there are net losses of carbon from soil and emissions of the greenhouse gas N₂O. Dependent on choices regarding allocation, they may, for wheat (starch) be in the order of 0.6–2.5 kg CO₂ equivalent kg⁻¹ of ethanol. This makes ethanol derived from starch, or sugar crops, in Europe still less attractive for mitigating climate change. In case of wheat, changes in agricultural practice may reduce or reverse carbon loss from soils. When biofuel production from crops leads to expansion of cropland while reducing forested areas or grassland, added impetus will be given to climate change.     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin,China

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO₂ concentration, a CO₂ fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

The effects of climate warming on microbe-mediated mechanisms of sediment carbon emission

Due to significant differences in biotic and abiotic properties of soils compared to those of sediments, the predicted underlying microbe-mediated mechanisms of soil carbon emissions in response to warming may not be applicable for estimating similar emissions from inland water sediments. We addressed this issue by incubating different types of sediments, (including lake, small river, and pond sediments) collected from 36 sites across the Yangtze River basin, under short-term experimental warming to explore the effects of climate warming on sediment carbon emission and the underlying microbe-mediated mechanisms. Our results indicated that under climate warming CO₂ emissions were affected more than CH₄ emissions, and that pond sediments may yield a greater relative contribution of CO₂ to total carbon emissions than lake and river sediments. Warming-induced CO₂ and CH₄ increases involve different microbe-mediated mechanisms; Warming-induced sediment CO₂ emissions were predicted to be directly positively driven by microbial community network modularity, which was significantly negatively affected by the quality and quantity of organic carbon and warming-induced variations in dissolved oxygen, Conversely, warming-induced sediment CH₄ emissions were predicted to be directly positively driven by microbial community network complexity, which was significantly negatively affected by warming-induced variations in pH. Our findings suggest that biotic and abiotic drivers for sediment CO₂ and CH₄ emissions in response to climate warming should be considered separately when predicting sediment organic carbon decomposition dynamics resulting from climate change.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

垃圾分类对碳减排的影响分析：以青岛市为例

城市生活垃圾(MSW)处理单元是重要的温室气体排放源,垃圾分类可以实现垃圾减量化和提高资源化利用率,但对于温室气体减排的影响还鲜见报道.以青岛市内4区为研究对象,基于生命周期评价方法,研究了垃圾分类前后不同生活垃圾处置模式下的温室气体排放情况.结果表明,垃圾分类可以显著降低处置全过程中的温室气体排放,模式1(混合收集+填埋)、模式2(混合收集+焚烧)、模式3(垃圾分类+厨余垃圾厌氧消化和其他焚烧)和模式4(垃圾分类+厨余垃圾厌氧消化、可回收垃圾资源化和其他焚烧)垃圾处理全过程净碳排放量(以CO₂/MSW计)分别为686.39、-130.12、-61.88和-230.17 kg·t^-1.提高厨余垃圾回收效率并不能显著降低碳排放.随着垃圾回收效率的提高,碳减排量呈线性增加,可回收垃圾回收效率每提高10%,其净碳排放量降低26.6%(16.5 kg·t^-1).适度分离餐厨垃圾、提高可回收垃圾回收效率和降低厨余垃圾厌氧消化沼气泄漏率是目前减少生活垃圾温室气体排放和社会成本的可行策略.     

Carbon storage potential of harvested wood: summary and policy implications

Within national greenhouse gas inventories, many countries now use widely-accepted methodologies to track carbon that continues to be stored in wood products and landfills after its removal from the forest. Beyond simply tracking post-harvest wood carbon, expansion of this pool has further been suggested as a potential climate change mitigation strategy. This paper summarizes data on the fate of carbon through the wood processing chain and on greenhouse gas emissions generated by processing, transport, use and disposal of wood. As a result of wood waste and decomposition, the carbon stored long-term in harvested wood products may be a small proportion of that originally stored in the standing trees—across the United States approximately 1% may remain in products in-use and 13% in landfills at 100 years post-harvest. Related processing and transport emissions may in some cases approach the amount of CO₂e stored in long-lived solid wood products. Policies that promote wood product carbon storage as a climate mitigation strategy must assess full life-cycle impacts, address accounting uncertainties, and balance multiple public values derived from forests.     

满足城市食物消费需求的农业生产碳排放研究——以宁波为例

食物消费相关的农业生产阶段的碳排放研究,对于探讨气候变化背景下可持续消费模式的选择和低碳农业技术与管理的提升具有重要意义.以宁波市为例,采用生命周期分析与环境投入产出相结合的综合分析框架,对其2012年居民所消费食物在农业生产阶段的直接和间接碳排放进行研究,分析不同食物及不同排放源的排放特征.结果表明,粮食、猪肉、水产品和牛肉对食物消费碳排放总量的贡献最大,分别占28%、25%、10%和9%;粮食、蔬菜和蛋类单位热量和单位蛋白质的碳排放均较小,禽、蛋、水产、鲜奶单位蛋白质的碳排放低于牛羊猪肉;由农业投入品生产所带来的间接碳排放占总量的49%;化肥是多数植物性食物碳排放最大的贡献源,占植物性食物排放总量的33%;饲料是大多动物性食物碳排放的最大来源,占动物性食物排放总量的56%.为促进食物消费和农业生产的碳减排,一方面建议适当增加蛋类、水产品、禽类和鲜奶的消费比重,减少猪牛羊肉的消费比重;另一方面应着重提高农业投入品供应链的能效,推广优化施肥技术与管理,以及提升饲料品质.     

The adequacy of GWPs as indicators of damage costsincurred by global warming

This article looks at the ability of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) towork as indicators of equivalence for temperature development and damagecosts. We look at two abatement scenarios that are equivalent when using100-year GWPs: one scenario reduces short-lived gases, mainly methane(CH₄); the other scenario reduces carbon dioxide (CO₂).Despite their equivalence in terms of CO₂ equivalents, the scenariosdo not result in equal rates or levels of temperature change. The disparitiescontinue as we move further down the chain of causality toward damagecosts, measured either in terms of rate of climate change or level of climatechange. Compared to the CH₄ mitigation scenario, the CO₂mitigation scenario gives present value costs 1.3 and 1.5 times higher forlevel- and rate-dependent damage costs, respectively, assuming a discountrate of 3%. We also test the GWPs for other time horizons and theconclusions remain the same; using GWP as an index to reflect equivalentclimate effects and damage costs from emissions is questionable.     

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO₂. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.