Towards better integration of environmental science in society: Lessons from BONUS,the joint Baltic Sea environmental research and development programme

Integration of environmental science in society is impeded by the large gap between science and policy that is characterised by weaknesses in societal relevance and dissemination of science and its practical implementation in policy. We analyse experiences from BONUS, the policy-driven joint Baltic Sea research and development programme (2007–2020), which is part of the European Research Area (ERA) and involves combined research funding by eight EU member states. The ERA process decreased fragmentation of Baltic Sea science and BONUS funding increased the scientific quality and societal relevance of Baltic Sea science and strengthened the science-policy interface. Acknowledging the different drivers for science producers (academic career, need for funding, peer review) and science users (fast results fitting policy windows), and realising that most scientists aim at building conceptual understanding rather than instrumental use, bridges can be built through strategic planning, coordination and integration. This requires strong programme governance stretching far beyond selecting projects for funding, such as coaching, facilitating the sharing of infrastructure and data and iterative networking within and between science producer and user groups in all programme phases. Instruments of critical importance for successful science-society integration were identified as: (1) coordinating a strategic research agenda with strong inputs from science, policy and management, (2) providing platforms where science and policy can meet, (3) requiring cooperation between scientists to decrease fragmentation, increase quality, clarify uncertainties and increase consensus about environmental problems, (4) encouraging and supporting scientists in disseminating their results through audience-tailored channels, and (5) funding not only primary research but also synthesis projects that evaluate the scientific findings and their practical use in society – in close cooperation with science users − to enhance relevance, credibility and legitimacy of environmental science and expand its practical implementation.     

生物除磷生化代谢模型的研究进展

阐述了在生物除磷过程中生化代谢模型的建立与发展,分别介绍了早期的Comeau/Wentzel模型和Mino模型,在生物除磷代谢模型发展上有重要意义的Smolder模型和Delft模型,以及目前较被关注的反硝化除磷模型和国际水协(IWA)提出的ASM2和ASM2D模型.从而提出将生物除磷模型同化学除磷模型相结合,与在线监测技术发展融合,并且在模型中加入更多的环境因素将是生化除磷模型的主要发展方向.     

地表水水质模型综合评价技术体系研究

水环境数学模型开发及应用的不规范会严重影响水环境管理决策的有效性和科学性.为了更好地发挥模型的职能,减少因采用的模型差异而造成差别管理等不公平因素,应当建立科学的模型筛选制度和评价体系.基于模型开发及应用的生命周期全过程,在文献调研和专家咨询基础上,提出了包含目标层、准则层和指标层的地表水水质模型综合评价指标和评价方法,其中指标层包括通用性、可靠性、友好性、先进性和易用性5个准则的29个指标.采用层次分析法和专家打分法确定指标值及指标权重,并以国内外常用的水质模型,即HEC-RAS、MIKE11、CE-QUAL-W2、WASP、EFDC和Delft3D模型为例,进行了水质模型的综合评价.案例应用的模型评价得分高低的排序依次为Delft3D、EFDC、CE-QUAL-W2、MIKE11、WASP和HEC-RAS模型,结果表明建立的水质模型综合评价技术体系科学、可靠、易用,可为我国水环境数学模型的规范化建设提供重要参考.      

Backcasting for sustainability in engineering education: the case of Delft University of Technology

This paper deals with teaching participatory backcasting to engineering students as part of the graduate specialisation in sustainability at TU Delft. A course is described using backcasting, sustainable future visions, a systems orientation, and interviews with stakeholders and multi-disciplinary project work. The essentials of backcasting are presented before an outline and results from the backcasting course are described. It is concluded that it has been possible to develop a ‘light’ version of participatory backcasting that can be taught to engineering students in a useful way during a course of 3 study credits (4 ects; European credit transfer system (ects): 1 ects equals 28 h (3.5 days) of study; the previously used studycredit equalled 40 h (5 days) of study). The paper also outlines some results of the Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) project at TU Delft.     

基于三维水动力水质数值模型的象山港排污策略研究

本文以象山港（半封闭港湾）为研究对象,采用Delft 3D软件建立三维水动力数值模型,对其潮位、潮流、温度、盐度的时空变化进行验证分析,计算结果与实测结果基本吻合,表明该模型能够较好地模拟象山港海域的水动力特征。为进一步研究象山港内污染物的迁移转化过程,在上述水动力模型的基础上构建三维水质模型,水质模拟结果与实测数据吻合良好,可以反映水质的变化趋势。利用验证后的水质模型,针对排污口的落潮排放、排放量减少和排污口整合3种排污策略进行模拟计算,分析排污口对象山港水质变量的影响程度。模拟结果表明,象山港水质环境受排污口影响明显,3种排污策略均可以直接降低港内DIN浓度,但不同的工况表现出不同的影响特征。     

Negotiating future climates for public policy: a critical assessment of the development of climate scenarios for the UK

Climate scenarios serve a number of functions in helping society manage climate change—pedagogic, motivational or practical (for example, in engineering design, spatial planning and policy development). A variety of methodologies for scenario construction have been experimented with, all of them to a greater or lesser extent depending on the use of climate models. Yet the development of climate scenarios involves much more than climate modelling. The process of scenario development is one of negotiation between relevant stakeholders—funding agencies, policy communities, scientists, social actors and decision-makers in a variety of sectors. This process of negotiation is illustrated through an analysis of four generations of UK climate scenarios—published in 1991, 1996, 1998 and 2002. Using ideas from science and technology studies and the sociology of scientific knowledge to guide our analysis, we reveal complex relationships between the interests of UK science, policy and society. Negotiating climate scenarios involves compromise between the needs of policy, science and decision-maker in relation to, for example, the selection of the development pathway(s) and emissions scenario(s), the choice of climate model(s), the assessment and communication of uncertainty and the presentational devices used. These insights have a significant bearing on the way in which climate scenarios should be viewed and used in public discourse, strategic planning and policy development.     

基于信息化集成的新版排污许可证监督管理系统研究

旧版排污许可证信息管理系统信息化程度低,存在管理滞后和耐压性差的弊端,无法满足当前经济发展的需求.设计基于信息化集成的新版排污许可证监督管理系统,依据B/S架构,通过MVC设计模式对排污许可证监督管理系统实施总体设计,基于MVC模式将系统分割成Model层、View层以及Controller层,分别实现系统信息处理部分的数据存储和操作、数据展示并同用户交互、合理控制系统流程.实验结果说明,所设计系统进行排污许可证监督管理过程中,各项功能运行良好,具有较高的耐压性和稳定性.     

Institutional challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on policy action gaps in Uganda

Despite the considerable progress made in the last decade towards building governance systems for climate change adaptation in Africa, implementation still limits positive responses. This study applies an iterative process of field assessments and literature reviews across multiple governance levels and spatial scales to identify constraints to effective formulation and implementation of climate change related policies and strategies in Uganda. Data was collected through sex-segregated participatory vulnerability assessments with farming communities in Rakai district, policy document reviews, and interviews with policy actors at national and district levels. Findings reveal that the key challenges to effective policy implementation are diverse and cut across the policy development and implementation cycle. Policies are mainly developed by central government agencies; other actors are insufficiently involved while local communities are excluded. There is also a communication disconnect between national, district, and community levels. Coupled with limited technical capacity and finances, political interference, and absence of functional implementation structures across these levels, climate change adaptation becomes constrained. We propose strategies that enhance linkages between levels and actors, which will improve policy formulation, implementation and ultimately adaptation by smallholders.     

三峡库区EFDC模型集成与应用

为满足三峡库区大尺度的水质预测需求,降低专业水质模型使用门槛,实现模型业务化运行,采用涵盖"模型封装-接口服务-系统集成"全过程的模型封装集成技术方法,开展了EFDC模型集成研究,并在三峡库区水质安全评估与预警系统中进行验证和应用.结果表明:①基于实例化模型建立的模型预置参数库,是模型业务化运行中参数简化的前提,可有效解决模型本地驯化及模型实例的基础数据复用问题;②依据参数识别结果,将模型参数识别为"必调参数、可调参数、默认参数"三类,并采用B/S架构对输入文件、输出文件和主控文件中的不同参数进行分类封装,达到参数简化目的;③采用半紧密型方式建立的基于Web services的EFDC模型集成接口服务及标准,可为信息系统提供通用的EFDC模型计算服务;④该方法在EFDC模型与三峡库区水质安全评估与预警系统集成中得到验证,实现了全库区干流及主要支流COD_Cr、总磷、总氮等污染因子的长时间序列水动力水质预测联机在线运算,满足了用户在水质影响预测预警中低修改量、高运算效率和良好用户体验等需求,实现了模型的业务化运行.      

活性污泥法污水处理厂生物-水力耦合建模及校验研究

为了考察生物反应器中水力流场对污染物质生物去除效果的影响以及研究生物代谢模型对生物除磷效果模拟的情况,在FCASM1模型的基础上,结合Delft磷代谢机理模型的思想,建立完全耦合活性污泥2号模型(Fully Coupled Activated Sludge Model No.2,简称FCASM2);并通过一维纵向对流-弥散方程与生物场耦合,建立了生物场-水力流场耦合新模型--FCASM2-Hydro耦合模型.污水处理厂模拟结果表明,生物场-水力流场耦合模型(FCASM2-Hydro)比非耦合模型对污染物质去除过程的描述更符合实际情况.在对30d的污水处理动态模拟结果中,FCASM1和FCASM2两个模型对磷酸盐的模拟结果与实测结果趋势一致,而且FCASM2的模拟值比FCASM1的模拟值更符合实测结果;在3d的污水处理动态模拟结果中,这2个模型对磷酸盐的模拟结果与实测结果趋势基本一致.     

QUICKScan as a quick and participatory methodology for problem identification and scoping in policy processes

Policy making is required in cases in which a public good needs to be either maintained or created, and private or civil initiatives cannot deal alone with this. Policy making thus starts with a phase of problem identification and determining whether there is a problem that needs to be dealt with. Rapidly evolving contexts exert influence on policy makers who have to take decisions much faster and more accurately than in the past, also facing greater complexity. There is a need for a method that lowers the lead time of the exploratory phase of the policy cycle. At the same time the method should create a joint understanding of the most important interactions. This paper proposes QUICKScan, a method, process and spatially explicit tool, to jointly scope policy problems in a participatory setting, investigate the most important interactions and feedbacks and assesses the state of knowledge and data of relevance to the problem. QUICKScan uses strongly moderated participatory workshops bringing together a wide range of stakeholders relevant to the policy issue. These moderated workshops jointly build an expert system in a spatially explicit tool using functionality of bayesian belief networks, python programming, simple map algebra and knowledge matrices, with a strong focus on visualization of results. QUICKScan has been applied in 70 different applications in a range of different policy contexts, stakeholders and physical locations. Through these applications participants were able to internalize the knowledge that was usually handed to them in briefs and reports, to develop a joint understanding of the main interactions and their link to impacts and to develop a problem statement and solution space in a reduced lead time. Ultimately, QUICKScan demonstrates another role of science, not solely as a knowledge production, but also facilitating the knowledge consumption.     

危机事件影响下环境政策变迁的过程、模式及机制研究

全球化和高速发展的城市化使得人类与生态之间的矛盾愈加严重,环境危机事件发生的频率不断上升,如何应对危机成为当今社会公共管理的主要议题。本文从环境危机事件的内涵与制度学诱因出发,通过梳理国内外相关理论和实证研究,对危机影响下环境政策变迁的过程、模式以及机制进行评述。研究表明,制度供求不匹配所带来的制度非均衡是导致环境危机出现的根本原因之一;环境危机事件有利于打破原有环境政策渐进性过程的路径依赖性,通过改变政府、公众、企业及其他利益相关体的机会格局与资源条件从而为主要政策变迁提供可能性。因此,危机事件影响下的环境政策变迁过程是自上而下和自下而上两种政策途径综合作用的结果。中国正处于“非稳定状态”的环境危机多发阶段,需要借鉴国外理论模型进行本土化研究。加强多学科之间的融合和有关理论的实际应用,为具有不同经济制度发展水平的地区制定区域可持续发展政策提供决策支持。     

Participatory modelling for sustainable development: Key issues derived from five cases of natural resource and disaster risk management

Stakeholder participation is considered a key principle for sustainable development in the context of natural resource and disaster risk management. Participatory modelling (PM) is an interactive and iterative process in which stakeholder involvement is supported by modelling and communication tools. Planning and decision-making for sustainable development (SD)integrate three substantive dimensions − social, ecological and economic. The procedural dimension of SD, however, is equally important, and here we see great potential for PM. In this study, we evaluate five PM research projects against criteria for the procedural dimension of SD. This provides a basis for identifying key issues and needs for further research into PM for SD. While the cases show great potential, especially for supporting knowledge integration, learning and transparent handling of values and perspectives, they indicate a particular need to develop PM in respect of organizational integration. This issue is closely connected to the possibility of effectively implementing PM in practice.     

Pyrolysis — Gas chromatographic studies of the origins of the insoluble aliphatic component of peat

We thank Dr. T. C. Hoering of the Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. for kindly providing GC-MS facilities. We also thank Dr. J. W. de Leeuw of the Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands for making available the results of the study on plant cuticles in advance. We wish to acknowledge the technical assistance of J. Zelibor of the University of Maryland, College Park, MD.     

Uncertainty in dispersion modelling and urban air quality mapping

The ADMS-urban atmospheric dispersion modelling system has been applied to review of air quality in central London in 1996/1997 and assessment of future air quality against air quality objectives in 2005. Model performance is assessed by in situ validation against monitoring data. This case study illustrates how scientific uncertainty needs to be considered when using model output in such a policy context. Model precision, carefully defined, is ±10% with bias between 0 and +12% (model over-prediction) for annual mean nitrogen dioxide and respirable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations and for the 90th percentile of daily mean PM₁₀. As expected, the model is less accurate for the maximum and 99.8th percentile of hourly mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations and for total NO_x. We propose probabilistic mapping techniques should be used to formalise and clarify how uncertainty is translated into the definition of an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) on a map. This also identifies the extent to which air quality objectives have been defined for which current dispersion model performance is inadequate. It is recommended that the capabilities of modelling alongside measurement need to be considered at an early stage in the formulation of future air quality management policy.     

Engaging stakeholders in an adaptation process: governance and institutional arrangements in heat-health policy development in Adelaide, Australia

Record breaking heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide, Australia in recent years and climate change would likely increase the frequency, duration and severity of heat waves. This paper describes the governance and institutional arrangements during the development of an adaptation strategy (herein referred to as heat-health policy) for heat waves in Adelaide, Australia. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted between June and August 2011 among 18 stakeholders who were involved in the participatory process during the development of the heat-health policy. Informed consent was obtained and interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and the data analysed using framework analysis. Interview data were supplemented by data gathered through a review of documents associated with the process. The results found that the process of developing the heat-health policy was initiated by the state government and comprised of stakeholders from both the state and non-state sectors. There was a high level of leadership and political commitment demonstrated during the process, given that the different players wanted a policy to be in place before any future heat wave. A Steering Committee was established that provided coordination and oversight in addition to the Emergency Management Act within the state which provided the legislative framework during the heat-health policy development process. Although the decision-making authority was controlled by a controlled by a public institution, to a larger extent, there was collaborative decision-making by virtue of the context in which the heat-health policy was developed. An assurance mechanism established during the process was among the factors that ensured accountability during the participatory process. Overall, the development of the heat-health policy in Adelaide was largely successful, attributed to the extent of political commitment from the state government and the sound institutional and legislative framework that facilitated the process. Good governance and institutional arrangements provide the enabling environment, the structures, systems and resources that would facilitate the development of adaptation strategies such as heat-health policies.     

长江流域禁捕生态补偿政策绩效评价及影响因素分析——以湖北和贵州为例

渔民作为我国长江流域禁捕生态补偿政策的对象,渔民的满意程度是衡量禁捕生态补偿政策的重要指标。选取的研究地区是首批推行并完成禁捕生态补偿政策的贵州省赤水河流域和湖北省洪湖市,基于退捕渔民调研结果,先使用TOPSIS法的数学模型求出最优解,再进行障碍度计算,并对禁捕政策实施效果和相关影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）关于禁捕生态补偿政策渔民评价的最优解,贵州省赤水河流域为0.45,绩效一般,湖北省洪湖市为0.27,对应的绩效水平为较差;（2）影响两个地区绩效评价的前三位主要因素是实施禁捕后,政府部门工作跟踪力度满意度（B₄）、生活水平满意度（D₂）、社会活动与社会地位满意度（E₂）。研究结论为评价禁捕生态补偿政策绩效提供一个可选分析框架,为其他地区提高禁捕生态补偿政策绩效提供参考依据。     

Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.     

Scientists versus policy-makers: Building capacity for productive interactions across boundaries in the urban water sector

This paper critically reflects on a trial process for building the capacity of researchers to influence policy-makers in the urban water sector in Australia. Framed as an action research inquiry, this study brought together multidisciplinary teams of researchers to make policy pitches to simulated panels of current and former politicians, senior bureaucrats and industry representatives. The simulations were analysed with respect to tactics for pitching, methods of communication, use of evidence and participants’ reflections on the experience. Participants effectively used scientific research evidence to support a broad vision of water sensitive cities, but were less effective in articulating risk analyses, assessing economic impacts, and proposing appropriate policy instruments to enable their proposed visions to be operationalised. Dramaturgical analysis highlighted the implications of positioning scientists versus policy-makers, which ‘typecast’ participants in roles that restricted scientists’ ability to credibly argue policy ideas. It is proposed that teams of scientists and policy-makers ‘rehearse’ together to manage expectations, develop arguments that will cut through in policy contexts, and produce ideas that shape and are shaped and improved by the policy context.     

Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.