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1.
To extend coupled human–environment systems research and include the ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change and policy scenarios, we present an analysis of the effects of forest patch size and shape and landscape pattern on carbon storage estimated by BIOME-BGC. We evaluate the effects of including within-patch and landscape-scale heterogeneity in air temperature on carbon estimates using two modelling experiments. In the first, we combine fieldwork, spatial analysis, and BIOME-BGC at a 15-m resolution to estimate carbon storage in the highly fragmented and human-dominated landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. In the second, we perform the same analysis on 12 hypothetical landscapes that differ only in their degree of fragmentation. For each experiment we conduct four air-temperature treatments, three guided by field-based data and one empirically informed by local National Weather Service station data. The three field data sets were measured (1) exterior to a forest patch, (2) from the patch edge inward to 60 m on east-, south-, and west-facing aspects, separately, and (3) interior to that forest patch. Our field-data analysis revealed a decrease in maximum air temperature from the forest patch edge to a depth of 80 m. Within-patch air-temperature values were significantly different (α = 0.01) among transects (c.v. = 13.28) and for all measurement locations (c.v. = 30.58). Results from the first experiment showed that the interior treatment underestimated carbon storage by ~8000 Mg C and the exterior treatment overestimated carbon storage by 30,000 Mg C within Dundee Township, Southeastern Michigan, when compared to a treatment that included within-patch heterogeneity. In the second experiment we found a logarithmic increase in carbon storage with increasing fragmentation (r2 = 0.91). While a number of other processes (e.g. altered disturbance frequency or severity) remain to be included in future experiments, this combined field and modelling study clearly demonstrated that the inclusion of within-patch and landscape heterogeneity, and landscape fragmentation, each have a strong effect on forest carbon cycling and storage as simulated by a widely used ecosystem process model.  相似文献   

2.
Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.  相似文献   

3.
Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO2 greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy.  相似文献   

4.
《Ecological modelling》2007,200(1-2):207-216
Unraveling the consequences of hydrologic transport on carbon (C) storage will help identify feedbacks between land management alternatives, climate change, and soil-vegetation-atmospheric-transfers (SVATs) of C. There is a need for theoretically driven models of erosion and deposition that includes transport induced mineralization to better understand the controls on SVATs of C. Here we present a model developed using a systems-dynamic approach that coupled C-SVATs at a 2-day resolution with a discrete event erosion–deposition model occurring with a prescribed return interval. Five possible mass-balance transformations of C occurring between the two patches were explicitly modeled: net primary production (NPP), decomposition, erosion, transport induced mineralization, and deposition. The net C-SVAT, NPP minus decomposition, exhibited three stable points of no net C flux. Starting with arbitrary initial C pool in each patch above the bifurcation point, the model approached a quasi-steady state, which included both the short-term and longer term consequences of erosion; in the baseline simulation 5080 g C m−2 was stored prior to erosion and 100 years of low intensity erosion 4840 g C m−2 SOC remained. Low intensity erosion also generated spatial heterogeneity; from an initial homogeneous distribution to 40% of the C stored in the eroded patch and 60% of the C stored in the deposition patch. Erosion reduction resulted in a corresponding increase in total soil C content that was positively related to the magnitude of erosion reduction. In conjunction with providing a modeling framework for reducing the uncertainty in C-SVAT, this model is a prototype of a growing theory of ecosystem processes within spatially explicit landscapes, a meta-ecosystem model.  相似文献   

5.
《Ecological modelling》2005,183(4):477-494
Surface albedo determines the distribution of solar radiation between the earth's surface and the atmosphere. It affects the global climate directly by altering surface energy balance, and indirectly by controlling ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas exchange. In this study, a land surface albedo model was constructed based on the gap probability approach for ray tracing and the basic optical parameters of ecosystem elements. The model was applied to a boreal deciduous forest and results were compared with field measurements. Results show that seasonal and diurnal albedo dynamics were well simulated by the model. The standard deviation between the simulated and measured reflected radiation was 2.5–5.0 W m−2 in different seasons. The model also provided an insight into the relationships between surface albedo and radiation components (direct versus diffuse), solar zenith angle, and different wave bands. Model sensitivity analyses show that the surface albedo in winter is very sensitive to the forest wood area index for this boreal aspen forest, suggesting that accurate estimates of wood area index are necessary to improve the accuracy of surface albedo simulation in leafless seasons.  相似文献   

6.
《Ecological modelling》2004,180(1):73-87
Spatial modeling of forest patterns can provide information on the potential impact of various management strategies on large landscapes over long time frames. We used LANDIS, a stochastic, spatially-explicit, ecological landscape model to simulate 120 years of forest change on the Nashwauk Uplands, a 328,000 ha landscape in northeastern Minnesota that lies in the transition between boreal and temperate forests. We ran several forest management scenarios including current harvesting practices, no harvests, varied rotation ages, varied clearcut sizes, clustered clearcuts, and landowner coordination. We examined the effects of each scenario on spatial patterns of forests by covertype, age class, and mean and distribution of patch sizes. All scenarios reveal an increase in the spruce-fir (Picea-Abies) covertype relative to the economically paramount aspen-birch (Populus-Betula) covertype. Our results also show that most covertypes occur in mostly small patches <5 ha in size and the ability of management to affect patch size is limited by the highly varied physiography and landuse patterns on the landscape. However, coordination among landowners, larger clearcuts, and clustered clearcuts were all predicted to increase habitat diversity by creating some larger patches and older forest patches. These three scenarios along with the no harvest scenario also create more old forest than current harvesting practices, by concentrating harvesting on some portion of the landscape. The no harvest scenario retained large, fire-regenerated aspen-birch patches. Harvests fragment large aspen-birch patches by changing the age structure and releasing the shade-tolerant understory species. More sapling forest, and larger sapling patches resulted from the shortened rotation scenario.  相似文献   

7.
《Ecological modelling》2004,180(1):7-19
This paper provides contextual documentation of the LANDIS model development to provide a framework for the other papers in this special issue. The LANDIS model of forest landscape disturbance and succession was developed since the early 1990s as a research and management tool that optimizes the possible landscape extent (100 s ha to 1000 s km2), while providing mechanistic detail adequate for a broad range of potential problems. LANDIS is a raster model, and operates on landscapes mapped as cells, containing tree species age classes. Spatial processes, such as seed dispersal, and disturbances such as fire, wind, and harvesting can occur. LANDIS development benefited from the modelling and research progress of the 1960s to the1980s, including the growth of landscape ecology during the 1980s. In the past decade the model has been used by colleagues across North America, as well as in Europe and China. This has been useful to those not able to undertake the cost and effort of developing their own model, and it has provided a growing diverse set of test landscapes for the model. These areas include temperate, southern, and boreal forests of eastern North America, to montane and boreal western forests, coastal California forest and shrub systems, boreal Finnish forests, and montane forests in Switzerland and northeastern China. The LANDIS model continues to be refined and developed. Papers in this special issue document recent work. Future goals include integration within a larger land use change model, and applications to landscape and regional global change projection based on newly incorporated biomass and carbon dynamics.  相似文献   

8.
《Ecological modelling》2005,186(2):178-195
A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.  相似文献   

9.
《Ecological modelling》2005,181(4):591-614
The development of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) simulations is one of the ongoing efforts in the land surface schemes of climate models. The C- and N-coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (C-CLASS) was recently modified to better represent grassland ecosystems. Improvements include revised plant growth and senescence calculations that are driven by the plant C balance between fixation and respiration, and leaf-out and leaf-fall schemes that are regulated by the seasonal dynamics of C and N reserves. These revisions were developed to better simulate the stress-related senescence and regrowth of perennials. The model was tested with observations of surface carbon and energy fluxes, soil temperature and moisture, and plant growth during 3 years of declining precipitation at a northern semiarid grassland near Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada. The R2 and standard deviations between the simulated and observed half-hourly fluxes were 0.95 and 22.5 W m−2 for net radiation, 0.82 and 42.1 W m−2 for sensible heat, 0.66 and 29.2 W m−2 for latent heat, and 0.63 and 0.95 μmol C m−2 s−1 for net CO2 exchange. The model and observations both showed a strong impact of declining precipitation on annual carbon budgets in this semi-arid grassland. In a wet year (1998, precipitation = 482 mm), the ecosystem acted as a strong C sink (92 g C m−2 modelled and 109 g C m−2 measured from June 20th to December 31st). In a near-normal year (1999, precipitation = 341 mm), a smaller C sink was indicated (24 g C m−2 modelled and 21 g C m−2 measured). In a dry year (2000, precipitation = 276 mm), the ecosystem acted as a small C source (−18 g C m−2 modelled and −17 g C m−2 measured).  相似文献   

10.
《Ecological modelling》2005,187(1):40-59
The topic of this paper is a simplified model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all hydrologically relevant processes. It includes interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, mortality and simple management practice. It was implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The approach was tested on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and common oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea).The results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI and satisfactory simulation of litter production (annual mean value). A comparison of the date of May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak (1980–1990) with observed data of the DWD (German Weather Service) shows a good reproduction of the temporal dynamic. The daily simulation of transpiration shows an excellent correlation of r = 0.81 for the year 1998 but only r = 0.65 for 1999. The interception losses were also simulated and compared with weekly observed data showing satisfactory results in the vegetation periods and annual sums, but worse agreement in autumn and spring time. A regional assessment study was done in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany) to test the applicability and multi-criteria evaluation capabilities of the approach on the landscape and catchments scale using forest data, daily river discharge and regional water balance.  相似文献   

11.
12.
《Ecological modelling》2005,188(1):41-51
In plants that produce seeds with contrasting genetic background (selfed versus outcrossed), the question arises whether the ecological function of the two types of progeny differ. This paper addresses this issue for the ant-dispersed Calathea micans by introducing a novel application of the Neubert–Caswell model for analysis of wave speed for structured populations. Because dispersal as well as vital rates are structured, the model allows for distinct dispersal kernels for different types of progeny and thus permits comparisons of the sensitivity to changes in demographic and dispersal parameters of in situ population growth rate versus population spread across space. The study site was a lowland, evergreen tropical rain forest at La Selva Biological station, Costa Rica, where the species is commonly found throughout the forest. In C. micans, seeds produced by open flowers (potentially outcrossed) or by closed flowers (selfed) bear oily arils and are dispersed by ants. Five life-history stages were used to characterize the population: seedlings originating from seeds produced by open flowers, seedlings originating from seeds produced by closed flowers, juvenile vegetative plants, reproductive plants without new shoots and reproductive plants with new shoots. Demography varied seasonally. Transitions were estimated from marking and following the fate of plants (N = 400) in a natural population over a dry and a wet season. The population dynamics was described by a 10 × 10 matrix, with five life-history stages and two habitat states. The habitat states cycle repeatedly, dry–wet–dry–wet. To estimate dispersal kernels for each seed type, individual seeds (N = 225 and 306 seeds produced by open and closed flowers, respectively) were color-coded and placed in depots, allowing the ants to redistribute them. Five months later, seedlings with an attached seed coat bearing the intact color-coding, were surveyed around the depots. Radial distances and angles were recorded for each seedling (N = 67 and 81 seedlings arising from open and closed flowers, respectively). The results of the model give an asymptotic growth rate of 1.06 per season and an asymptotic rate of spread of 8.36 cm per season. There is a high correlation (r = 0.99) between elasticity of growth rate and elasticity of rate of spread of the population. Both rates are most sensitive to changes in stasis of juveniles during the dry season. However, most interesting is the analysis that revealed that population spread is more sensitive than in situ population growth to demographic rates of seedlings arising from open flowers. The analysis suggests a new way of thinking about ecological functions of multiple modes of reproduction.  相似文献   

13.
《Ecological modelling》2007,200(1-2):189-192
We suggests that temperature response of plant productivity can be modeled by the Arrhenius function modified to describe the effect of temperature on enzyme activity: GA(T) = 2f(T)/(1 + f2(T)), where f(T) = exp(Ea/RTopt  Ea/RT), R the universal gas constant, Ea the activation energy and Topt is the optimal temperature. In common with other functions used for modeling the temperature response of plant productivity, the curve of function G is almost symmetrical and bell-shaped. The special convenience of GA is that it relates the width of the “bell” to thermodynamic concepts, such as activation energy of chemical reactions converting carbon dioxide and water to carbohydrates.  相似文献   

14.
The integration of carbon sequestration value of forest ecosystems into forest management planning models has become increasingly important in sustainable forest management. This study analyses the economic effects of different minimum cutting ages on timber and carbon sequestration values for a Scots pine forest clumped mainly in older age classes in northeast Turkey. The analysis is performed by formulating three optimisation models. The objective of each model is to maximise net present value (NPV) of harvested timber, net present value of carbon sequestration and the total net present value of timber production and carbon sequestration, respectively. Results showed that increasing the minimum cutting ages by 10 years increased the NPV of timber by 10.5%. However, the current minimum cutting ages were optimal for maximizing the NPV of carbon and the sum of the NPV of timber and carbon benefits. In addition, the model outputs were found to be quite sensitive to unit carbon prices.  相似文献   

15.
《Ecological modelling》2007,200(1-2):33-44
In modelling spatial distribution of species, ignoring spatial autocorrelation (SA) and multicollinearity may lead to false ecological conclusions. Here we take into account both issues for examining and modelling the spatial pattern of abundance of the globally threatened lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) during summer in a 38,400 ha area of northwestern Spain where large premigratory aggregations of the species occur. Spatial pattern was examined using Moran's correlogram, and models were built including geographical coordinates and autocovariate terms (which account for SA) in generalized linear models (GLM) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) models. HP models allow to alleviate multicollinearity. A grid-based approach was used by dividing the study area in 24 contiguous 4 km × 4 km squares where birds were counted in 2–3 visits per square (response variable). Environmental coarse-grained variables were extracted from a geographic information system (GIS) at three spatial extents. Moran's correlogram showed that lesser kestrel mean abundance per square was spatially autocorrelated up to 4–8 km. The results from both GLM and HP analyses were roughly compatible. The GLM models explained 80.0% of the variation in kestrel abundance and were the same at the three spatial extents. Lesser Kestrel abundance was not significantly explained by landscape variables, but was negatively related to both the distance to the nearest communal roost and distance to the nearest breeding colony with more of 10 breeding pairs of lesser kestrel. An autocovariate term added later in the GLM models improved both their explanatory power (from 74.5 to 80.0%) and model residuals, which were not longer spatially autocorrelated, fulfilling thus the statistical assumption of independent errors. Findings suggest that the spatial distribution of abundance of summering lesser kestrel is, at least, partially driven by endogenous causes, such as conspecific attraction. Exogenous causes such as finer-scale variables (e.g. type of crops and food available) are yet likely needed for lesser kestrel-environment relationships.  相似文献   

16.
《Ecological modelling》2005,185(1):93-103
The effect of the seed abscission process on the dispersal distance of seeds has never been studied explicitly and is often ignored in studies that aim to estimate the seed shadows of species. To examine the importance of the abscission process for the seed shadow we used a seed trajectory model that keeps track of the release threshold dynamics of the individual seeds on mother plant. We defined the release threshold as the critical wind speed that induces a mechanical force that is just large enough to release a seed from its mother plant. The model used real wind speed sequences and seed appearance over time on the mother plant.Several calculations were performed to investigate the effect of release thresholds dynamics on seed shadow of two herbaceous species with contrasting terminal velocity values (Vt): Centaurea jacea (Vt = 4.1 m s−1) and Hypochaeris radicata (Vt = 0.49 m s−1).Release thresholds were responsible for a two-fold increase of median dispersal distances in both species. Tails of the seed shadows, the fraction of seeds that travel furthest, were even more sensitive and increased with a factor 4.5 for Centaurea and 7.0 for Hypochaeris. Our work indicates that the abscission process appears to be very important and suggests that dispersal distance of plants is currently severely underestimated, which, in turn, has major consequences for our current understanding of the distribution, metapopulation dynamics and survival of plant species.  相似文献   

17.
《Ecological modelling》2005,186(3):312-325
Neutral models in landscape ecology that have been used as a framework to analyze actual landscapes have been largely planar. However, the natural world is greater than two dimensions; hence, many ecological structures, e.g., forest canopies or coral reefs, are better represented by topographies or tomographies. Because pattern and process or structure and function are intertwined, it becomes necessary to develop methods to quantify these complex architectures. With the advent of remote sensing technologies such as lidars and sonars, that permit structural mapping of some of these systems, volumetric data are becoming more prevalent. In this study, we developed a suite of binary voxel-based neutral models that possessed random, anisotropic, and hierarchical properties. We then evaluated the extent to which fractal-derived measurements, i.e., lacunarity, the simple fractal dimension, and multifractal spectra, were able to discern among the constructed model types at two different densities (p = 0.02 and p = 0.05). Multifractal analysis, where spectra were defined by three parameters, was shown to be the most sensitive to the differences among the neutral structures. Lacunarity, defined by a single parameter, was shown to be fairly useful in discerning the structures. The simple fractal dimension was found to have limited capability. To more fully assess the ability of these and additional pattern recognition methods, better representations of natural morphologies need to be developed and analyzed.  相似文献   

18.
This paper analyzed the effect of summer heat on academic achievement. Summer heat can negatively affect student learning, as previous studies have shown that high temperatures in laboratory settings have a negative effect on cognitive abilities. For this analysis, the test scores of five different cohorts were combined with city-level daily temperature data. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, the test scores of students within the same school were compared over time (school-fixed effects estimation). Summer heat negatively affected student test scores. Specifically, an additional day with a maximum daily temperature exceeding 34 °C (93.2 °F) during the summer, relative to a day with a maximum temperature between 28 °C (82.4 °F) and 30 °C (86 °F), decreased the scores of math and English tests by 0.0042 and 0.0064 standard deviations, respectively. No significant effects were found on the reading test scores. In addition, these effects were larger in relatively cooler cities, but did not differ based on gender. Finally, the previous year's summer also had negative effects on the current year's test scores.  相似文献   

19.
《Ecological modelling》2007,201(2):157-162
Soil respiration was measured with the enclosed chamber method during 2 years in fenced Leymus chinensis steppe, Inner Mongolia, China. Soil water content at 0–10 cm depth was a major limited factor of soil respiration in semi-arid grassland, accounting for 76.4% of the variation. The temperature-dependent exponential function could only explain 38.7% of the variation in soil respiration. With 246 data over the entire experimental period, multiple linear stepwise regressions of soil respiration rate were analyzed with the influencing factors, including soil water content at 0–10 cm depth, air temperature, air pressure, air humidity, total radiation and their interactions. With soil water content at 0–10 cm depth (W) and air temperature (Th) as combined factors, the twice linear regression (F = 1.68WTh  109.09) was simple and its coefficients were significant, accounting for 83.1% of the variation in soil respiration. Due to the lack of long-term and continuous soil water content, a water sub-model based on precipitation and evapotranspiration was introduced, which could provide better fits with the measured values (R2 = 0.813). The magnitudes of soil respiration calculated from the twice linear regression equation and water sub-model were 439.58 and 463.06 g CO2 m−2 in 2001 (19 June–23 September) and in 2002 (1 June–24 September), respectively. The mean hourly soil respiration rates were in the range of the previous studies in the adjacent region and the world's major temperate grasslands.  相似文献   

20.
提高碳汇潜力:量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
王春梅  王汝南  蔺照兰 《生态环境》2010,19(10):2501-2505
全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。  相似文献   

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