共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
Den Boychuk W. John Braun Reg J. Kulperger Zinovi L. Krougly David A. Stanford 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):133-151
We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can
describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment
allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such
a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.
相似文献
Reg J. KulpergerEmail: |
2.
Kimberly R. Hall 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):491-521
To plan for the habitat needs of forest songbirds of conservation concern, managers need to understand how spatial heterogeneity
in forest conditions influences habitat quality. I used difference boundary detection (wombling) and spatially constrained
clustering to delineate boundaries in various combinations of four forest vegetation variables (understory height, understory
density, percent deciduous vs. conifer understory, and percent canopy closure) in two Michigan northern hardwood forests.
My goal was to identify vegetation boundaries that corresponded with boundaries in an understory-dependent songbird’s distribution,
and with boundaries in demographic measures for this songbird that indicate habitat quality (e.g., occupancy by older vs.
yearling males, reproductive success). Both forests were actively-managed, mature stands: The first site (78 ha) was heavily
deer-browsed (HB), with many browse-resistant conifers in the understory, and the second (62 ha) was less-browsed (LB), with
deciduous-dominated understory. I compared the vegetation difference and cluster boundaries to difference boundaries based
on 6 years of distribution and demographic data for black-throated blue warblers (Dendroica caerulescens). At the HB site, warbler boundaries overlapped strongly with vegetation boundaries that included all four variables, and
clustering effectively divided the habitat into areas with different warbler occupancy and demographic characteristics. At
the LB site, warbler distribution showed high overlap with difference and cluster boundaries based on just the height and
density of understory vegetation, and cluster boundaries again effectively partitioned the study area into sites that varied
in habitat quality. Thus, geographic boundary analysis is likely to be a useful tool for identifying key vegetation variables
for management, and for delineating clusters (habitat patches) within sites that capture differences in habitat quality.
相似文献
Kimberly R. HallEmail: |
3.
Fiat boundaries: some implications for interpretation,decision-support,and multi-temporal analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kim Lowell 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):369-383
Polygon-based thematic maps can be composed of boundaries that exist by definition—i.e., bona fide boundaries—or those that
exist relative to a specific interpretation of a spatial phenomenon—i.e., fiat boundaries. The construction of maps composed
of fiat boundaries is usually based on a subjective interpretive methodology that is affected by the data used to construct
the map and the minimum mapping unit employed. That fiat boundaries are not the same as bona fide boundaries affects their
use in computer-based spatial decision support tools. This is discussed both in terms of an analysis conducted at one specific
moment, and in respect to increasingly common multi-temporal analysis.
相似文献
Kim LowellEmail: |
4.
Spatial structure effects on the detection of patches boundaries using local operators 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mathieu D. Philibert Marie-Josée Fortin Ferenc Csillag 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):447-467
Landscapes exhibit various degrees of spatial heterogeneity according to the differential intensity and interactions among
processes and disturbances that they are subjected to. The management of these spatially dynamical landscapes requires that
we can accurately map them and monitor the evolution of their spatial arrangement through time. Such a mapping requires first
the delineation of various spatial features present in the landscape such as patches and their boundaries. However, there
are several environmental (spatial variability) as well as technical (spatial resolution) factors that impair our ability
to accurately delineate patches and their boundaries as polygons. Here, we investigate how the spatial structure and spatial
resolution of the data affect the accuracy of detecting patches and their boundaries over simulated landscapes and real data.
Simulated landscapes consisted of two patches with parameterized spatial properties (patches’ level of spatial autocorrelation,
mean value and variance) separated by a boundary of known location. Real data allowed the investigation of a more complex
landscape where there is a known transition between two forest domains with unknown spatial properties. Boundary locations
are defined using the lattice-wombling edge detector at various aggregation levels and the degree of patch homogeneity is
determined using Getis-Ord’s G*. Results show that boundary detection using a local edge detector is greatly affected by the spatial conditions of the data,
namely variance, abruptness of the spatial gradient between two patches and patches’ level of spatial autocorrelation. They
also suggest that data aggregation is not a panacea for bringing out the ecological process creating the patches and that
indicators derived from local measures of spatial association can be complementary tools for analysing spatial structures
affecting boundary delineation.
相似文献
Marie-Josée FortinEmail: |
5.
Max A. Moritz Tadashi J. Moody Lori J. Miles Matthew M. Smith Perry de Valpine 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):271-289
Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems.
Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over
the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources
(e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread
use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and
to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case
study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial
resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical
intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates
were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years
and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can
have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.
相似文献
Max A. MoritzEmail: |
6.
B. Gail Ivanoff 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):153-171
The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition
given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points
are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis
for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.
相似文献
B. Gail IvanoffEmail: |
7.
The influence of multiple anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs) on the spatial behavior of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) was investigated by equipping all thirteen FADs surrounding the island of Oahu (HI, USA) with automated sonic receivers
(“listening stations”) and intra-peritoneally implanting individually coded acoustic transmitters in 45 yellowfin and 12 bigeye
tuna. Thus, the FAD network became a multi-element passive observatory of the residence and movement characteristics of tuna
within the array. Yellowfin tuna were detected within the FAD array for up to 150 days, while bigeye tuna were only observed
up to a maximum of 10 days after tagging. Only eight yellowfin tuna (out of 45) and one bigeye tuna (out of 12) visited FADs
other than their FAD of release. Those nine fish tended to visit nearest neighboring FADs and, in general, spent more time
at their FAD of release than at the others. Fish visiting the same FAD several times or visiting other FADs tended to stay
longer in the FAD network. A majority of tagged fish exhibited some synchronicity when departing the FADs but not all tagged
fish departed a FAD at the same time: small groups of tagged fish left together while others remained. We hypothesize that
tuna (at an individual or collective level) consider local conditions around any given FAD to be representative of the environment
on a larger scale (e.g., the entire island) and when those conditions become unfavorable the tuna move to a completely different
area. Thus, while the anchored FADs surrounding the island of Oahu might concentrate fish and make them more vulnerable to
fishing, at a meso-scale they might not entrain fish longer than if there were no (or very few) FADs in the area. At the existing
FAD density, the ‘island effect’ is more likely to be responsible for the general presence of fish around the island than
the FADs. We recommend further investigation of this hypothesis.
相似文献
Laurent Dagorn (Corresponding author)Email: |
Kim N. HollandEmail: |
David G. ItanoEmail: |
8.
David T. Butry 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):291-319
This paper examines the effect wildfire mitigation has on broad-scale wildfire behavior. Each year, hundreds of million of
dollars are spent on fire suppression and fuels management applications, yet little is known, quantitatively, of the returns
to these programs in terms of their impact on wildfire extent and intensity. This is especially true when considering that
wildfire management influences and reacts to several, often times confounding factors, including socioeconomic characteristics,
values at risk, heterogeneous landscapes, and climate. Due to the endogenous nature of suppression effort and fuels management
intensity and placement with wildfire behavior, traditional regression models may prove inadequate. Instead, I examine the
applicability of propensity score matching (PSM) techniques in modeling wildfire. This research makes several significant
contributions including: (1) applying techniques developed in labor economics and in epidemiology to evaluate the effects
of natural resource policies on landscapes, rather than on individuals; (2) providing a better understanding of the relationship
between wildfire mitigation strategies and their influence on broad-scale wildfire patterns; (3) quantifying the returns to
suppression and fuels management on wildfire behavior.
相似文献
David T. ButryEmail: |
9.
Amanda S. Hering Cynthia L. Bell Marc G. Genton 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):225-250
We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District
in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based
on an inhomogeneous K-function and argue that clustering is less important than initially thought. We also use K-cross functions to study multitype point patterns, both under homogeneity and inhomogeneity assumptions, and reach similar
conclusions as above regarding the amount of clustering. Of particular interest is our finding that prescribed burns seem
not to reduce significantly the occurrence of wildfires in the current or subsequent year over this large geographical region.
Finally, we describe various point pattern models for the location of wildfires and investigate their adequacy by means of
recent residual diagnostics.
相似文献
Marc G. Genton (Corresponding author)Email: Email: |
10.
Glen D. Johnson 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(3):293-311
Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is
driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected
to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted
as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that
this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of
an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human
population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.
相似文献
Glen D. JohnsonEmail: |
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13.
Chang Xuan Mao 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(4):473-481
Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of
capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real
biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ2 test.
相似文献
Chang Xuan MaoEmail: |
14.
Ferenc Csillag Sándor Kabos Tarmo K. Remmel 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):385-401
We revisit one of the classical problems in geography and cartography where multiple observations on a lattice (N) need to be grouped into many fewer regions (G), especially when this number of desired regions is unknown a priori. Since an optimization through all possible aggregations
is not feasible, a hierarchical classification scheme is proposed with an objective function sensitive to spatial pattern.
The objective function to be minimized during the assignment of observations to regions (classification) consists of two terms:
the first characterizes accuracy and the second, model complexity. For the latter, we introduce a spatial measure that characterizes
the number of homogeneous patches rather than the usual number of classes. A simulation study shows that such a classification
procedure is less sensitive to random and spatially correlated error (noise) than non-spatial classification. We also show
that for conditional autoregressive error (noise) fields the optimal partitioning is the one that has the highest within-units
generalized Moran coefficient. The classifier is implemented in ArcView to demonstrate both a socio-economic and an environmental
application to illustrate some potential applications.
相似文献
Tarmo K. Remmel (Corresponding author)Email: |
15.
Hierarchical spatial point process analysis for a plant community with high biodiversity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Janine B. Illian Jesper Møller Rasmus P. Waagepetersen 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):389-405
A complex multivariate spatial point pattern of a plant community with high biodiversity is modelled using a hierarchical
multivariate point process model. In the model, interactions between plants with different post-fire regeneration strategies
are of key interest. We consider initially a maximum likelihood approach to inference where problems arise due to unknown
interaction radii for the plants. We next demonstrate that a Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for incorporating
prior information concerning the interaction radii. From an ecological perspective, we are able both to confirm existing knowledge
on species’ interactions and to generate new biological questions and hypotheses on species’ interactions.
相似文献
Rasmus P. WaagepetersenEmail: |
16.
M. M. Manzano-Sarabia E. A. Aragón-Noriega C. A. Salinas-Zavala D. B. Lluch-Cota 《Marine Biology》2007,152(5):1021-1029
Life histories of penaeid shrimp have been classified according to the preferred habitats of postlarval, juvenile, and adult
stages, ranging from exclusively estuarine to exclusively offshore waters. Brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus californiensis migrate to an offshore habitat at the juvenile stage or even a smaller body size. This paper presents results of monthly
samplings from 24 stations over 1 year in the Agiabampo Lagoon complex, a hypersaline lagoon in northwestern Mexico. Five
species of penaeid shrimp were identified, with brown shrimp the most abundant during the year of sampling. Results suggest
that residency of brown shrimp inside this lagoon is longer than reported in previous studies. An interaction between length
and environmental variables (near-surface temperature, salinity, and rainfall) appear to be cues concerning migration.
相似文献
C. A. Salinas-ZavalaEmail: |
17.
B. Mike Wotton 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):107-131
Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest
fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict
these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding
and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with
consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture
and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture
and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship
between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types
is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional
and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system
and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers
to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful
for understanding and managing forest fire activity.
相似文献
B. Mike WottonEmail: |
18.
Griffith DA 《Environmental geochemistry and health》2008,30(6):495-509
Properly sampling soils and mapping soil contamination in urban environments requires that impacts of spatial autocorrelation
be taken into account. As spatial autocorrelation increases in an urban landscape, the amount of duplicate information contained
in georeferenced data also increases, whether an entire population or some type of random sample drawn from that population
is being analyzed, resulting in conventional power and sample size calculation formulae yielding incorrect sample size numbers
vis-à-vis model-based inference. Griffith (in Annals, Association of American Geographers, 95, 740–760, 2005) exploits spatial statistical model specifications to formulate equations for estimating the necessary sample
size needed to obtain some predetermined level of precision for an analysis of georeferenced data when implementing a tessellation
stratified random sampling design, labeling this approach model-informed, since a model of latent spatial autocorrelation
is required. This paper addresses issues of efficiency associated with these model-based results. It summarizes findings from
a data collection exercise (soil samples collected from across Syracuse, NY), as well as from a set of resampling and from
a set of simulation experiments following experimental design principles spelled out by Overton and Stehman (in Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 22, 2641–2660). Guidelines are suggested concerning appropriate sample size (i.e., how many) and sampling network (i.e., where).
相似文献
Daniel A. GriffithEmail: |
19.
Lucio Barabesi 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(4):483-494
Line-intersect sampling based on segmented transects is adopted in many forest inventories to quantify important ecological
indicators such as coarse woody debris attributes. By assuming a design-based approach, Affleck, Gregoire and Valentine (2005,
Environ Ecol Stat 12:139–154) have recently proposed a sampling protocol for this line-intersect setting and have suggested
an estimation method based on linear homogeneous estimators. However, their proposal does not encompass the estimation procedure
currently adopted in some national forest inventories. Hence, the present paper aims to introduce a unifying perspective for
both methods. Moreover, it is shown that the two procedures give rise to coincident estimators for almost all the usual field
applications. Finally, some strategies for efficient segmented-transect replications are considered.
相似文献
Lucio BarabesiEmail: |
20.
In this paper we examine the use of data augmentation techniques for simplifying iterative simulation in the context of both
Bayesian and classical statistical inference for survival rate estimation. We examine two distinct model families common in
population ecology to illustrate our ideas, ring-recovery models and capture–recapture models, and we present the computational
advantage of this approach. We discuss also the fact that problems associated with identifiability in the classical framework
can be overcome using data augmentation, but highlight the dangers in doing so under both inferential paradigms.
相似文献
I. C. OlsenEmail: |