Simulating Retention of Rare Alleles in Small Populations to Assess Management Options for Species with Different Life Histories

Preserving allelic diversity is important because it provides the capacity for adaptation and thus enables long‐term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict in animals with overlapping generations, so we used a new computer model to simulate retention of rare alleles in small populations of 3 species with contrasting life‐history traits: North Island Brown Kiwi (Apteryx mantelli; monogamous, long‐lived), North Island Robins (Petroica longipes; monogamous, short‐lived), and red deer (Cervus elaphus; polygynous, moderate lifespan). We simulated closed populations under various demographic scenarios and assessed the amounts of artificial immigration needed to achieve a goal of retaining 90% of selectively neutral rare alleles (frequency in the source population = 0.05) after 10 generations. The number of immigrants per generation required to meet the genetic goal ranged from 11 to 30, and there were key similarities and differences among species. None of the species met the genetic goal without immigration, and red deer lost the most allelic diversity due to reproductive skew among polygynous males. However, red deer required only a moderate rate of immigration relative to the other species to meet the genetic goal because nonterritorial breeders had a high turnover. Conversely, North Island Brown Kiwi needed the most immigration because the long lifespan of locally produced territorial breeders prevented a large proportion of immigrants from recruiting. In all species, the amount of immigration needed generally decreased with an increase in carrying capacity, survival, or reproductive output and increased as individual variation in reproductive success increased, indicating the importance of accurately quantifying these parameters to predict the effects of management. Overall, retaining rare alleles in a small, isolated population requires substantial investment of management effort. Use of simulations to explore strategies optimized for the populations in question will help maximize the value of this effort. Simulación de la Retención de Alelos Raros en Poblaciones Pequeñas para Evaluar Opciones de Manejo para Especies con Historias de Vida Diferentes     

Temporal Analysis of Genetic Structure to Assess Population Dynamics of Reintroduced Swift Foxes

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long‐term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small‐population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos     

Roads,Interrupted Dispersal,and Genetic Diversity in Timber Rattlesnakes

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat modification often creates barriers to animal movement, transforming formerly contiguous habitat into a patchwork of habitat islands with low connectivity. Roadways are a feature of most landscapes that can act as barriers or filters to migration among local populations. Even small and recently constructed roads can have a significant impact on population genetic structure of some species, but not others. We developed a research approach that combines fine‐scale molecular genetics with behavioral and ecological data to understand the impacts of roads on population structure and connectivity. We used microsatellite markers to characterize genetic variation within and among populations of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) occupying communal hibernacula (dens) in regions bisected by roadways. We examined the impact of roads on seasonal migration, genetic diversity, and gene flow among populations. Snakes in hibernacula isolated by roads had significantly lower genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation than snakes in hibernacula in contiguous habitat. Genetic‐assignment analyses revealed that interruption to seasonal migration was the mechanism underlying these patterns. Our results underscore the sizeable impact of roads on this species, despite their relatively recent construction at our study sites (7 to 10 generations of rattlesnakes), the utility of population genetics for studies of road ecology, and the need for mitigating effects of roads.     

Joint Effects of Inbreeding and Local Adaptation on the Evolution of Genetic Load after Fragmentation

Abstract: Disruption of gene flow among demes after landscape fragmentation can facilitate local adaptation but increase the effect of genetic drift and inbreeding. The joint effects of these conflicting forces on the mean fitness of individuals in a population are unknown. Through simulations, we explored the effect of increased isolation on the evolution of genetic load over the short and long term when fitness depends in part on local adaptation. We ignored genetic effects on demography. We modeled complex genomes, where a subset of the loci were under divergent selection in different localities. When a fraction of the loci were under heterogeneous selection, isolation increased mean fitness in larger demes made up of hundreds of individuals because of improved local adaptation. In smaller demes of tens of individuals, increased isolation improved local adaptation very little and reduced overall fitness. Short‐term improvement of mean fitness after fragmentation may not be indicative of the long‐term evolution of fitness. Whatever the deme size and potential for local adaptation, migration of one or two individuals per generation minimized the genetic load in general. The slow dynamics of mean fitness following fragmentation suggests that conservation measures should be implemented before the consequences of isolation on the genetic load become of concern.     

Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate

Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species’ and populations’ ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species’ ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced‐generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.     

A novel holistic framework for genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction programs

Research in reintroduction biology has provided a greater understanding of the often limited success of species reintroductions and highlighted the need for scientifically rigorous approaches in reintroduction programs. We examined the recent genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction literature to showcase the underuse of the genetic data gathered. We devised a framework that takes full advantage of the genetic data through assessment of the genetic makeup of populations before (past component of the framework), during (present component), and after (future component) captive‐breeding and reintroduction events to understand their conservation potential and maximize their success. We empirically applied our framework to two small fishes: Yarra pygmy perch (Nannoperca obscura) and southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis). Each of these species has a locally adapted and geographically isolated lineage that is endemic to the highly threatened lower Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. These two populations were rescued during Australia's recent decade‐long Millennium Drought, when their persistence became entirely dependent on captive‐breeding and subsequent reintroduction efforts. Using historical demographic analyses, we found differences and similarities between the species in the genetic impacts of past natural and anthropogenic events that occurred in situ, such as European settlement (past component). Subsequently, successful maintenance of genetic diversity in captivity—despite skewed brooder contribution to offspring—was achieved through carefully managed genetic‐based breeding (present component). Finally, genetic monitoring revealed the survival and recruitment of released captive‐bred offspring in the wild (future component). Our holistic framework often requires no additional data collection to that typically gathered in genetic‐based breeding programs, is applicable to a wide range of species, advances the genetic considerations of reintroduction programs, and is expected to improve with the use of next‐generation sequencing technology.     

Evaluating Alternative Strategies for Minimizing Unintended Fitness Consequences of Cultured Individuals on Wild Populations

Artificial propagation strategies often incur selection in captivity that leads to traits that are maladaptive in the wild. For propagation programs focused on production rather than demographic contribution to wild populations, effects on wild populations can occur through unintentional escapement or the need to release individuals into natural environments for part of their life cycle. In this case, 2 alternative management strategies might reduce unintended fitness consequences on natural populations: (1) reduce selection in captivity as much as possible to reduce fitness load (keep them similar), or (2) breed a separate population to reduce captive‐wild interactions as much as possible (make them different). We quantitatively evaluate these 2 strategies with a coupled demographic–genetic model based on Pacific salmon hatcheries that incorporates a variety of relevant processes and dynamics: selection in the hatchery relative to the wild, assortative mating based on the trait under selection, and different life cycle arrangements in terms of hatchery release, density dependence, natural selection, and reproduction. Model results indicate that, if natural selection only occurs between reproduction and captive release, the similar strategy performs better. However, if natural selection occurs between captive release and reproduction, the different and similar strategies present viable alternatives to reducing unintended fitness consequences because of the greater opportunity to purge maladaptive individuals. In this case, the appropriate approach depends on the feasibility of each strategy and the demographic goal (e.g., increasing natural abundance, or ensuring that a high proportion of natural spawners are naturally produced). In addition, the fitness effects of hatchery release are much greater if hatchery release occurs before (vs. after) density‐dependent interactions. Given the logistical challenges to achieving both the similar and different strategies, evaluation of not just the preferred strategy but also the consequences of failing to achieve the desired target is critical. Evaluación de Estrategias Alternativas para Minimizar las Consecuencias No Inesperadas en la Adecuación de Individuos Criados en Cautiverio sobre Poblaciones Silvestres     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental‐scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta‐analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post‐glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post‐glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Hunting Effects on Favourable Conservation Status of Highly Inbred Swedish Wolves

The wolf (Canis lupus) is classified as endangered in Sweden by the Swedish Species Information Centre, which is the official authority for threat classification. The present population, which was founded in the early 1980s, descends from 5 individuals. It is isolated and highly inbred, and on average individuals are more related than siblings. Hunts have been used by Swedish authorities during 2010 and 2011 to reduce the population size to its upper tolerable level of 210 wolves. European Union (EU) biodiversity legislation requires all member states to promote a concept called “favourable conservation status” (FCS) for a series of species including the wolf. Swedish national policy stipulates maintenance of viable populations with sufficient levels of genetic variation of all naturally occurring species. Hunting to reduce wolf numbers in Sweden is currently not in line with national and EU policy agreements and will make genetically based FCS criteria less achievable for this species. We suggest that to reach FCS for the wolf in Sweden the following criteria need to be met: (1) a well‐connected, large, subdivided wolf population over Scandinavia, Finland, and the Russian Karelia‐Kola region should be reestablished, (2) genetically effective size (N_e) of this population is in the minimum range of N_e = 500–1000, (3) Sweden harbors a part of this total population that substantially contributes to the total N_e and that is large enough to not be classified as threatened genetically or according to IUCN criteria, and (4) average inbreeding levels in the Swedish population are <0.1. Efectos de la Cacería sobre el Estatus de Conservación Favorable de Lobos Suecos con Endogamia Alta     

Rapid Increases and Time‐Lagged Declines in Amphibian Occupancy after Wildfire

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture‐sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire‐return intervals is limited. Numerous stand‐replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long‐term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0–4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7–21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low‐elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. Incrementos Rápidos y Declinaciones Desfasadas en la Ocupación de Anfibios Después de un Incendio     

Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy‐based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy‐based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per‐visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos     

Demographic Connectivity for Ursid Populations at Wildlife Crossing Structures in Banff National Park

Wildlife crossing structures are one solution to mitigating the fragmentation of wildlife populations caused by roads, but their effectiveness in providing connectivity has only been superficially evaluated. Hundreds of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (Ursus americanus) passages through under and overpasses have been recorded in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. However, the ability of crossing structures to allow individual and population‐level movements across road networks remains unknown. In April 2006, we initiated a 3‐year investigation into whether crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for grizzly and black bears in Banff National Park. We collected hair with multiple noninvasive methods to obtain genetic samples from grizzly and black bears around the Bow Valley. Our objectives were to determine the number of male and female grizzly and black bears that use crossing structures; examine spatial and temporal patterns of crossings; and estimate the proportions of grizzly and black bear populations in the Bow Valley that use crossing structures. Fifteen grizzly (7 female, 8 male) and 17 black bears (8 female, 9 male) used wildlife crossing structures. The number of individuals detected at wildlife crossing structures was highly correlated with the number of passages in space and time. Grizzly bears used open crossing structures (e.g., overpasses) more often than constricted crossings (e.g., culverts). Peak use of crossing structures for both bear species occurred in July, when high rates of foraging activity coincide with mating season. We compared the number of bears that used crossings with estimates of population abundance from a related study and determined that substantial percentages of grizzly (15.0% in 2006, 19.8% in 2008) and black bear (17.6% in 2006, 11.0% in 2008) populations used crossing structures. On the basis of our results, we concluded wildlife crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for bear populations in Banff National Park. Conectividad Demográfica para Poblaciones de Úrsidos en Estructuras para Cruce de Vida Silvestre en el Parque Nacional Banff     

The Role of Translocation in Recovery of Woodland Caribou Populations

Abstract: Maintenance of viable populations of many endangered species will require conservation action in perpetuity. Efforts to conserve these species are more likely to be successful if their reliance on conservation actions is assessed at the population level. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were extirpated recently from Banff National Park, Canada, and translocations of caribou to Banff and neighboring Jasper National Park are being considered. We used population viability analysis to assess the relative need for and benefits from translocation of individuals among caribou populations. We measured stochastic growth rates and the probability of quasi extinction of four populations of woodland caribou with and without translocation. We used two vital rates in our analysis: mean adult female survival and mean number of calves per breeding‐age female as estimates of mean fecundity. We isolated process variance for each vital rate. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population in Jasper is likely to remain viable without translocation, but that translocation is probably insufficient to prevent eventual extirpation of the two other populations in Jasper. Simulated reintroductions of caribou into Banff resulted in a 53–98% probability of >8 females remaining after 20 years, which suggests translocation may be an effective recovery tool for some caribou populations.     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

Multispecies genetic objectives in spatial conservation planning

Growing threats to biodiversity and global alteration of habitats and species distributions make it increasingly necessary to consider evolutionary patterns in conservation decision making. Yet, there is no clear‐cut guidance on how genetic features can be incorporated into conservation‐planning processes, despite multiple molecular markers and several genetic metrics for each marker type to choose from. Genetic patterns differ between species, but the potential tradeoffs among genetic objectives for multiple species in conservation planning are currently understudied. We compared spatial conservation prioritizations derived from 2 metrics of genetic diversity (nucleotide and haplotype diversity) and 2 metrics of genetic isolation (private haplotypes and local genetic differentiation) in mitochondrial DNA of 5 marine species. We compared outcomes of conservation plans based only on habitat representation with plans based on genetic data and habitat representation. Fewer priority areas were selected for conservation plans based solely on habitat representation than on plans that included habitat and genetic data. All 4 genetic metrics selected approximately similar conservation‐priority areas, which is likely a result of prioritizing genetic patterns across a genetically diverse array of species. Largely, our results suggest that multispecies genetic conservation objectives are vital to creating protected‐area networks that appropriately preserve community‐level evolutionary patterns.     

Assessment of the Conservation Efforts to Prevent Extinction of the Iberian Lynx

Abstract: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) may be the first charismatic felid to become extinct in a high‐income country, despite decades of study and much data that show extinction is highly probable. The International Union for Conservation of Nature categorizes it as critically endangered; about 200 free‐ranging individuals remain in two populations in southern Spain. Conservation measures aimed at averting extirpation have been extensively undertaken with 4 of the former 10 Iberian lynx populations recorded 25 years ago. Two of the four populations have been extirpated. The number of individuals in the third population have declined by 83%, and in the fourth the probability of extirpation has increased from 34% to 95%. Major drivers of the pending extinction are the small areas to which conservation measures have been applied; lack of incorporation of evidence‐based conservation, scientific monitoring, and adaptive management into conservation efforts; a lack of continuity in recovery efforts, and distrust by conservation agencies of scientific information. In contrast to situations in which conservation and economic objectives conflict, in the case of the Iberian lynx all stakeholders desire the species to be conserved.     

Interacting Effects of Phenotypic Plasticity and Evolution on Population Persistence in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Climate change affects individual organisms by altering development, physiology, behavior, and fitness, and populations by altering genetic and phenotypic composition, vital rates, and dynamics. We sought to clarify how selection, phenotypic plasticity, and demography are linked in the context of climate change. On the basis of theory and results of recent empirical studies of plants and animals, we believe the ecological and evolutionary issues relevant to population persistence as climate changes are the rate, type, magnitude, and spatial pattern of climate‐induced abiotic and biotic change; generation time and life history of the organism; extent and type of phenotypic plasticity; amount and distribution of adaptive genetic variation across space and time; dispersal potential; and size and connectivity of subpopulations. An understanding of limits to plasticity and evolutionary potential across traits, populations, and species and feedbacks between adaptive and demographic responses is lacking. Integrated knowledge of coupled ecological and evolutionary mechanisms will increase understanding of the resilience and probabilities of persistence of populations and species.