Protection of Genetic Diversity and Maintenance of Connectivity among Reef Corals within Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: High‐latitude coral reefs (HLRs) are potentially vulnerable marine ecosystems facing well‐documented threats to tropical reefs and exposure to suboptimal temperatures and insolation. In addition, because of their geographic isolation, HLRs may have poor or erratic larval connections to tropical reefs and a reduced genetic diversity and capacity to respond to environmental change. On Australia's east coast, a system of marine protected areas (MPAs) has been established with the aim of conserving HLRs in part by providing sources of colonizing larvae. To examine the effectiveness of existing MPAs as networks for dispersal, we compared genetic diversity within and among the HLRs in MPAs and between these HLRs and tropical reefs on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The 2 coral species best represented on Australian HLRs (the brooding Pocillopora damicornis and the broadcast‐spawning Goniastrea australensis) exhibited sharply contrasting patterns of diversity and connectedness. For P. damicornis, the 8‐locus genetic and genotypic diversity declined dramatically with increasing latitude (N_a= 3.6–1.2, H_e= 0.3–0.03, N_g:N = 0.87–0.06), although population structure was consistent with recruitment derived largely from sexual reproduction (G_o:G_e= 1.28–0.55). Genetic differentiation was high among the HLRs (F_ST[SD]= 0.32 [0.08], p < 0.05) and between the GBR and the HLRs (F_ST= 0.24 [0.06], p < 0.05), which indicates these temperate populations are effectively closed. In contrast for G. australensis, 9‐locus genetic diversity was more consistent across reefs (N_a= 4.2–3.9, H_e= 0.3–0.26, N_g:N = 1–0.61), and there was no differentiation among regions (F_ST= 0.00 [0.004], p > 0.05), which implies the HLRs and the southern GBR are strongly interconnected. Our results demonstrate that although the current MPAs appear to capture most of the genetic diversity present within the HLR systems for these 2 species, their sharply contrasting patterns of connectivity indicate some taxa, such as P. damicornis, will be more vulnerable than others, and this disparity will provide challenges for future management.     

Hunting Effects on Favourable Conservation Status of Highly Inbred Swedish Wolves

The wolf (Canis lupus) is classified as endangered in Sweden by the Swedish Species Information Centre, which is the official authority for threat classification. The present population, which was founded in the early 1980s, descends from 5 individuals. It is isolated and highly inbred, and on average individuals are more related than siblings. Hunts have been used by Swedish authorities during 2010 and 2011 to reduce the population size to its upper tolerable level of 210 wolves. European Union (EU) biodiversity legislation requires all member states to promote a concept called “favourable conservation status” (FCS) for a series of species including the wolf. Swedish national policy stipulates maintenance of viable populations with sufficient levels of genetic variation of all naturally occurring species. Hunting to reduce wolf numbers in Sweden is currently not in line with national and EU policy agreements and will make genetically based FCS criteria less achievable for this species. We suggest that to reach FCS for the wolf in Sweden the following criteria need to be met: (1) a well‐connected, large, subdivided wolf population over Scandinavia, Finland, and the Russian Karelia‐Kola region should be reestablished, (2) genetically effective size (N_e) of this population is in the minimum range of N_e = 500–1000, (3) Sweden harbors a part of this total population that substantially contributes to the total N_e and that is large enough to not be classified as threatened genetically or according to IUCN criteria, and (4) average inbreeding levels in the Swedish population are <0.1. Efectos de la Cacería sobre el Estatus de Conservación Favorable de Lobos Suecos con Endogamia Alta     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.     

Use of sibling relationship reconstruction to complement traditional monitoring in fisheries management and conservation of brown trout

Declining trends in the abundance of many fish urgently call for more efficient and informative monitoring methods that would provide necessary demographic data for the evaluation of existing conservation, restoration, and management actions. We investigated how genetic sibship reconstruction from young‐of‐the‐year brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) juveniles provides valuable, complementary demographic information that allowed us to disentangle the effects of habitat quality and number of breeders on juvenile density. We studied restored (n = 15) and control (n = 15) spawning and nursery habitats in 16 brown trout rivers and streams over 2 consecutive years to evaluate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities. Similar juvenile densities both in restored and control spawning and nursery grounds were observed. Similarly, no differences in the effective number of breeders, N_b(SA), were detected between habitats, indicating that brown trout readily used recently restored spawning grounds. Only a weak relationship between the N_b(SA) and juvenile density was observed, suggesting that multiple factors affect juvenile abundance. In some areas, very low estimates of N_b(SA) were found at sites with high juvenile density, indicating that a small number of breeders can produce a high number of progeny in favorable conditions. In other sites, high N_b(SA) estimates were associated with low juvenile density, suggesting low habitat quality or lack of suitable spawning substrate in relation to available breeders. Based on these results, we recommend the incorporation of genetic sibship reconstruction to ongoing and future fish evaluation and monitoring programs to gain novel insights into local demographic and evolutionary processes relevant for fisheries management, habitat restoration, and conservation.     

Multimethod,multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves

In many cases, the first step in large‐carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost‐effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical‐site‐occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost‐effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well‐coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population‐parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters.     

Temporal Analysis of Genetic Structure to Assess Population Dynamics of Reintroduced Swift Foxes

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long‐term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small‐population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos     

Simulating Retention of Rare Alleles in Small Populations to Assess Management Options for Species with Different Life Histories

Preserving allelic diversity is important because it provides the capacity for adaptation and thus enables long‐term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict in animals with overlapping generations, so we used a new computer model to simulate retention of rare alleles in small populations of 3 species with contrasting life‐history traits: North Island Brown Kiwi (Apteryx mantelli; monogamous, long‐lived), North Island Robins (Petroica longipes; monogamous, short‐lived), and red deer (Cervus elaphus; polygynous, moderate lifespan). We simulated closed populations under various demographic scenarios and assessed the amounts of artificial immigration needed to achieve a goal of retaining 90% of selectively neutral rare alleles (frequency in the source population = 0.05) after 10 generations. The number of immigrants per generation required to meet the genetic goal ranged from 11 to 30, and there were key similarities and differences among species. None of the species met the genetic goal without immigration, and red deer lost the most allelic diversity due to reproductive skew among polygynous males. However, red deer required only a moderate rate of immigration relative to the other species to meet the genetic goal because nonterritorial breeders had a high turnover. Conversely, North Island Brown Kiwi needed the most immigration because the long lifespan of locally produced territorial breeders prevented a large proportion of immigrants from recruiting. In all species, the amount of immigration needed generally decreased with an increase in carrying capacity, survival, or reproductive output and increased as individual variation in reproductive success increased, indicating the importance of accurately quantifying these parameters to predict the effects of management. Overall, retaining rare alleles in a small, isolated population requires substantial investment of management effort. Use of simulations to explore strategies optimized for the populations in question will help maximize the value of this effort. Simulación de la Retención de Alelos Raros en Poblaciones Pequeñas para Evaluar Opciones de Manejo para Especies con Historias de Vida Diferentes     

Effectiveness of Predator Removal for Enhancing Bird Populations

Abstract: Predation pressure on vulnerable bird species has made predator control an important issue for international nature conservation. Predator removal by culling or translocation is controversial, expensive, and time‐consuming, and results are often temporary. Thus, it is important to assess its effectiveness from all available evidence. We used explicit systematic review methodology to determine the impact of predator removal on four measurable responses in birds: breeding performance (hatching success and fledging success) and population size (breeding and postbreeding). We used meta‐analysis to summarize results from 83 predator removal studies from six continents. We also investigated whether characteristics of the prey, predator species, location, and study methodology explained heterogeneity in effect sizes. Removing predators increased hatching success, fledging success, and breeding populations. Removing all predator species achieved a significantly larger increase in breeding population than removing only a subset. Postbreeding population size was not improved on islands, or overall, but did increase on mainlands. Heterogeneity in effect sizes for the four population parameters was not explained by whether predators were native or introduced; prey were declining, migratory, or game species; or by the study methodology. Effect sizes for fledging success were smaller for ground‐nesting birds than those that nest elsewhere, but the difference was not significant. We conclude that current evidence indicates that predator removal is an effective strategy for the conservation of vulnerable bird populations. Nevertheless, the ethical and practical problems associated with predator removal may lead managers to favor alternative, nonlethal solutions. Research is needed to provide and synthesize data to determine whether these are effective management practices for future policies on bird conservation.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Spatially Explicit Power Analyses for Occupancy‐Based Monitoring of Wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy‐based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy‐based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per‐visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species. Poder de Análisis Espacialmente Explícito para el Monitoreo Basado en Ocupación del Glotón (Gulo gulo) en las Montañas Rocallosas de Estados Unidos     

Intraspecific Chromosome Number Variation: a Neglected Threat to the Conservation of Rare Plants

Abstract: The effectiveness of rare plant conservation will increase when life history, demographic, and genetic data are considered simultaneously. Inbreeding depression is a widely recognized genetic concern in rare plant conservation, and the mixing of genetically diverse populations in restoration efforts is a common remedy. Nevertheless, if populations with unrecognized intraspecific chromosome variation are crossed, progeny fitness losses will range from partial to complete sterility, and reintroductions and population augmentation of rare plants may fail. To assess the current state of cytological knowledge of threatened and endangered plants in the continental United States, we searched available resources for chromosome counts. We also reviewed recovery plans to discern whether recovery criteria potentially place listed species at risk by requiring reintroductions or population augmentation in the absence of cytological information. Over half the plants lacked a chromosome count, and when a taxon did have a count it generally originated from a sampling intensity too limited to detect intraspecific chromosome variation. Despite limited past cytological sampling, we found 11 plants with documented intraspecific cytological variation, while 8 others were ambiguous for intraspecific chromosome variation. Nevertheless, only one recovery plan addressed the chromosome differences. Inadequate within‐species cytological characterization, incomplete sampling among listed taxa, and the prevalence of interspecific and intraspecific chromosome variation in listed genera, suggests that other rare plants are likely to have intraspecific chromosome variation. Nearly 90% of all recovery plans called for reintroductions or population augmentation as part of recovery criteria despite the dearth of cytological knowledge. We recommend screening rare plants for intraspecific chromosome variation before reintroductions or population augmentation projects are undertaken to safeguard against inadvertent mixtures of incompatible cytotypes.     

Science or Slaughter: Need for Lethal Sampling of Sharks

Abstract: General consensus among scientists, commercial interests, and the public regarding the status of shark populations is leading to an increasing need for the scientific community to provide information to help guide effective management and conservation actions. Experience from other marine vertebrate taxa suggests that public, political, and media pressures will play an increasingly important part in setting research, management, and conservation priorities. We examined the potential implications of nonscientific influences on shark research. In particular, we considered whether lethal research sampling of sharks is justified. Although lethal sampling comes at a cost to a population, especially for threatened species, the conservation benefits from well‐designed studies provide essential data that cannot be collected currently in any other way. Methods that enable nonlethal collection of life‐history data on sharks are being developed (e.g., use of blood samples to detect maturity), but in the near future they will not provide widespread or significant benefits. Development of these techniques needs to continue, as does the way in which scientists coordinate their use of material collected during lethal sampling. For almost half of the known shark species there are insufficient data to determine their population status; thus, there is an ongoing need for further collection of scientific data to ensure all shark populations have a future. Shark populations will benefit most when decisions about the use of lethal sampling are made on the basis of scientific evidence that is free from individual, political, public, and media pressures.     

Phylogeography and Limited Genetic Connectivity in the Endangered Boring Giant Clam across the Coral Triangle

Abstract: The Coral Triangle is the global center of marine biodiversity; however, its coral reefs are critically threatened. Because of the bipartite life history of many marine species with sedentary adults and dispersive pelagic larvae, designing effective marine protected areas requires an understanding of patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity among geographically discrete populations. We used mtDNA sequence data to examine patterns of genetic connectivity in the boring giant clam (Tridacna crocea) in an effort to guide conservation efforts within the Coral Triangle. We collected an approximately 485 base pair fragment of mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase 1 (CO1) from 414 individuals at 26 sites across Indonesia. Genetic structure was strong between regions (φ_ST=0.549, p < 0.00001) with 3 strongly supported clades: one restricted to western Sumatra, another distributed across central Indonesia, and a third limited to eastern Indonesia and Papua. Even within the single largest clade, small but significant genetic structure was documented (φ_ST=0.069, p < 0.00001), which indicates limited gene flow within and among phylogeographic regions. Significant patterns of isolation by distance indicated an average dispersal distance of only 25–50 km, which is far below dispersal predictions of 406–708 km derived from estimates of passive dispersal over 10 days via surface currents. The strong regional genetic structure we found indicates potent limits to genetic and demographic connectivity for this species throughout the Coral Triangle and provides a regional context for conservation planning. The recovery of 3 distinct evolutionarily significant units within a well‐studied taxonomic group suggests that biodiversity in this region may be significantly underestimated and that Tridacna taxa may be more endangered than currently recognized.     

Roads,Interrupted Dispersal,and Genetic Diversity in Timber Rattlesnakes

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat modification often creates barriers to animal movement, transforming formerly contiguous habitat into a patchwork of habitat islands with low connectivity. Roadways are a feature of most landscapes that can act as barriers or filters to migration among local populations. Even small and recently constructed roads can have a significant impact on population genetic structure of some species, but not others. We developed a research approach that combines fine‐scale molecular genetics with behavioral and ecological data to understand the impacts of roads on population structure and connectivity. We used microsatellite markers to characterize genetic variation within and among populations of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) occupying communal hibernacula (dens) in regions bisected by roadways. We examined the impact of roads on seasonal migration, genetic diversity, and gene flow among populations. Snakes in hibernacula isolated by roads had significantly lower genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation than snakes in hibernacula in contiguous habitat. Genetic‐assignment analyses revealed that interruption to seasonal migration was the mechanism underlying these patterns. Our results underscore the sizeable impact of roads on this species, despite their relatively recent construction at our study sites (7 to 10 generations of rattlesnakes), the utility of population genetics for studies of road ecology, and the need for mitigating effects of roads.     

Conservation Implications of Drastic Reductions in the Smallest and Most Isolated Populations of Giant Pandas

Abstract: In conservation biology, understanding the causes of endangerment is a key step to devising effective conservation strategies. We used molecular evidence (coalescent simulations of population changes from microsatellite data) and historical information (habitat and human population changes) to investigate how the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains became highly endangered. These populations experienced a strong, recent demographic reduction (60‐fold), starting approximately 250 years BP. Explosion of the human population and use of non‐native crop species at the peak of the Qing Empire resulted in land‐use changes, deforestation, and habitat fragmentation, which are likely to have led to the drastic reduction of the most‐isolated populations of giant pandas. We predict that demographic, genetic, and environmental factors will lead to extinction of giant pandas in the Xiaoxiangling Mountains in the future if the population remains isolated. Therefore, a targeted conservation action—translocation—has been proposed and is being implemented by the Chinese goverment.     

A novel holistic framework for genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction programs

Research in reintroduction biology has provided a greater understanding of the often limited success of species reintroductions and highlighted the need for scientifically rigorous approaches in reintroduction programs. We examined the recent genetic‐based captive‐breeding and reintroduction literature to showcase the underuse of the genetic data gathered. We devised a framework that takes full advantage of the genetic data through assessment of the genetic makeup of populations before (past component of the framework), during (present component), and after (future component) captive‐breeding and reintroduction events to understand their conservation potential and maximize their success. We empirically applied our framework to two small fishes: Yarra pygmy perch (Nannoperca obscura) and southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis). Each of these species has a locally adapted and geographically isolated lineage that is endemic to the highly threatened lower Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. These two populations were rescued during Australia's recent decade‐long Millennium Drought, when their persistence became entirely dependent on captive‐breeding and subsequent reintroduction efforts. Using historical demographic analyses, we found differences and similarities between the species in the genetic impacts of past natural and anthropogenic events that occurred in situ, such as European settlement (past component). Subsequently, successful maintenance of genetic diversity in captivity—despite skewed brooder contribution to offspring—was achieved through carefully managed genetic‐based breeding (present component). Finally, genetic monitoring revealed the survival and recruitment of released captive‐bred offspring in the wild (future component). Our holistic framework often requires no additional data collection to that typically gathered in genetic‐based breeding programs, is applicable to a wide range of species, advances the genetic considerations of reintroduction programs, and is expected to improve with the use of next‐generation sequencing technology.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Joint Effects of Inbreeding and Local Adaptation on the Evolution of Genetic Load after Fragmentation

Abstract: Disruption of gene flow among demes after landscape fragmentation can facilitate local adaptation but increase the effect of genetic drift and inbreeding. The joint effects of these conflicting forces on the mean fitness of individuals in a population are unknown. Through simulations, we explored the effect of increased isolation on the evolution of genetic load over the short and long term when fitness depends in part on local adaptation. We ignored genetic effects on demography. We modeled complex genomes, where a subset of the loci were under divergent selection in different localities. When a fraction of the loci were under heterogeneous selection, isolation increased mean fitness in larger demes made up of hundreds of individuals because of improved local adaptation. In smaller demes of tens of individuals, increased isolation improved local adaptation very little and reduced overall fitness. Short‐term improvement of mean fitness after fragmentation may not be indicative of the long‐term evolution of fitness. Whatever the deme size and potential for local adaptation, migration of one or two individuals per generation minimized the genetic load in general. The slow dynamics of mean fitness following fragmentation suggests that conservation measures should be implemented before the consequences of isolation on the genetic load become of concern.     

The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery

Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life‐history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life‐history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards “faster” life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3–40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra‐ and inter‐specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life‐history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi‐species context, where both age‐specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life‐history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability.