Assessment of the Risks for Human Health of Adenoviruses,Hepatitis A Virus,Rotaviruses and Enteroviruses in the Buffalo River and Three Source Water Dams in the Eastern Cape

Buffalo River is an important water resource in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The potential risks of infection constituted by exposure to human enteric viruses in the Buffalo River and three source water dams along its course were assessed using mean values and static quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The daily risks of infection determined by the exponential model [for human adenovirus (HAdV) and enterovirus (EnV)] and the beta-Poisson model (for hepatitis A virus (HAV) and rotavirus (RoV)) varied with sites and exposure scenario. The estimated daily risks of infection values at the sites where the respective viruses were detected, ranged from 7.31 × 10^?3 to 1 (for HAdV), 4.23 × 10^?2 to 6.54 × 10^?1 (RoV), 2.32 × 10^?4 to 1.73 × 10^?1 (HAV) and 1.32 × 10^?4 to 5.70 × 10^?2 (EnV). The yearly risks of infection in individuals exposed to the river/dam water via drinking, recreational, domestic or irrigational activities were unacceptably high, exceeding the acceptable risk of 0.01 % (10^?4 infection/person/year), and the guideline value used as by several nations for drinking water. The risks of illness and death from infection ranged from 6.58 × 10^?5 to 5.0 × 10^?1 and 6.58 × 10^?9 to 5.0 × 10^?5, respectively. The threats here are heightened by the high mortality rates for HAV, and its endemicity in South Africa. Therefore, we conclude that the Buffalo River and its source water dams are a public health hazard. The QMRA presented here is the first of its kinds in the Eastern Cape Province and provides the building block for a quantitatively oriented local guideline for water quality management in the Province.     

Microbial Source Tracking Analysis Using Viral Indicators in Santa Lucía and Uruguay Rivers,Uruguay

The aim of this study was to determine the origin (human, bovine or porcine) and the concentration of the fecal sources of contamination in waters from Santa Lucía basin and Uruguay River in Uruguay by using host-specific viral markers (adenoviruses and polyomaviruses) as microbial source tracking (MST). Between June 2015 and May 2016, monthly collections of surface water samples were performed in six sites in Santa Lucía basin and four sites in Uruguay River (n = 120 samples). Viral concentration was carried out using an absorption-elution method. Detection and quantification of human and porcine adenovirus (HAdV and PAdV, respectively) and human and bovine polyomavirus (HPyV and BoPyV, respectively) were performed by quantitative PCR (qPCR). To evaluate the infectivity of circulating HAdV, an integrated cell culture-qPCR (ICC-qPCR) was used. A logistic regression analysis was carried out to estimate the influence of environmental variables on the virus presence in surface waters. Overall, HAdV was the prevalent (18%; 21/120) followed by BoPyV (11%; 13/120) and HPyV (3%; 3/120), whereas PAdV was not detected in this study. The mean concentration ranged from 1.5 × 10⁴ genomic copies/L (gc/L) for HAdV to 1.8 × 10² gc/L for HPyV. Infective HAdVs were observed in two out of ten analyzed samples. A significant effect of environmental temperature (p = 0.001) and river (p = 0.012) on the presence of human viruses was found. These results suggest that fecal contamination could affect the water quality of these rivers, showing deficiencies in the procedure of sewage discharge from regional cities, livestock and dairy farms.

     

Quantitative PCR Detection and Characterisation of Human Adenovirus,Rotavirus and Hepatitis A Virus in Discharged Effluents of Two Wastewater Treatment Facilities in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

The occurrence of enteric viruses in reclaimed wastewater, their removal by efficient treatment processes and the public health hazards associated with their release into the environments are of great significance in environmental microbiology. In this study, TaqMan-based real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to assess the prevalence of human adenovirus (HAdV), rotavirus (RV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) in the final effluents of two wastewater treatment plants in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, over a twelve-month sampling period. The correlation between the concentrations of viruses in the effluents samples and faecal coliform (FC) densities were assessed as to validate the use of FC as microbiological indicator in water quality assessment. HAdV was detected in 62.5 % (30/48) of the samples with concentrations ranging between 8.4 × 10¹ and 1.0 × 10⁵ genome copies/L while HAV and RV were only detected at concentrations below the set detection limits. FCs densities ranged from 1 to 2.7 × 10⁴ CFU/100 ml. Adenovirus species HAdV-B (serotype 2) and HAdV-F (serotype 41) were detected in 86.7 % (26/30) and 6.7 % (2/30) of the HAdV-positive samples, respectively. No consistent seasonal trend was observed in HAdV concentrations, however, increased concentrations of HAdV were generally observed in the winter months. Also, there was no correlation between the occurrence of HAdV and FC at both the treatment plants. The persistent occurrence of HAdV in the discharged treated effluents points to the potential public health risk through the release of HAdV into the receiving watersheds, and the possibility of their transmission to human population.     

Relative Abundance of Human Bocaviruses in Urban Sewage in Greater Cairo,Egypt

Human bocavirus (HBoV) is predominantly found in the respiratory tract infections and in the stool of patients with gastroenteritis symptoms. However, data on the prevalence of HBoV genotypes in environmental samples are limited. Here we addressed the prevalence of HBoV in sewage collected from three different wastewater treatment plants in Egypt. HBoV-1, HBoV-2, and HBoV-3 were detected, whereas none of the samples were positive for HBoV-4. The median concentration of HBoV in influent samples was 8.5 × 10³ GC/l for HBoV-1, 3.0 × 10⁴ GC/l for HBoV-2, and 2.5 × 10⁴ GC/l for HBoV-3. The concentration was reduced but not completely removed in the effluent samples. The median concentration in the outlet samples was 2.9 × 10³ GC/l for HBoV-1, 4.1 × 10³ GC/l for HBoV-2, and 2.1 × 10³ GC/l for HBoV-3. Moreover, no seasonality pattern of HBoVs was found. The high incidence of HBoV in sewage samples provided an evidence of its circulation in the local population. Although the role of HBoV in respiratory or gastro-intestinal infections still remains to be fully elucidated, the risk of infection via contaminated water should be taken into consideration.     

Occurrence of Human Enteric Viruses in Commercial Mussels at Retail Level in Three European Countries

In this study, the prevalence of different enteric viruses in commercial mussels was evaluated at the retail level in three European countries (Finland, Greece and Spain). A total of 153 mussel samples from different origins were analysed for human norovirus (NoV) genogroups I and II, hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV). Human adenovirus (HAdV) was also tested as an indicator of human faecal contamination. A full set of controls (such as sample process control, internal amplification controls, and positive and negative controls) were implemented during the process. The use of a sample process control allowed us to calculate the efficiencies of extraction, which ranged from 79 to 0.5?%, with an average value of 10?%. Samples were positive in 41?% of cases, with HAdV being the most prevalent virus detected (36?%), but no significant correlation was found between the presence of HAdV and human NoV, HAV and HEV. The prevalences of human norovirus genogroup II, HEV and human NoV genogroup I were 16, 3 and 0.7?%, respectively, and HAV was not detected. The estimated number of PCR detectable units varied between 24 and 1.4?×?10³?g^?1 of digestive tract. Interestingly, there appeared to be a significant association between the type of mussel species (M. galloprovincialis) and the positive result of samples, although a complete overlap between country and species examined required this finding to be confirmed including samples of both species from all possible countries of origin.     

Quantification of Human Adenoviruses in European Recreational Waters

The presence of human adenoviruses (HAdV) in recreational water might cause disease in the population upon exposure. HAdV detected by PCR could also serve as indicators of the virological water quality. In order to assess the applicability of HAdV to the evaluation of the faecal contamination in European bathing waters, a real-time quantitative PCR assay was used for the quantification of HAdV in 132 samples collected from 24 different recreational marine and freshwater sites in nine European countries. Selected samples presenting positive nested PCR results for HAdV were analyzed using quantitative PCR and 80 samples from a total of 132 produced quantitative results with mean values of 3.2 × 10² per 100 ml of water, being human adenovirus 41 the most prevalent serotype between the samples where adenovirus was typified. HAdV were quantified in samples from all 15 surveillance laboratories. Statistical analysis showed no homogeneous linear relation between HAdV and E. coli, intestinal enterococci or somatic coliphages concentrations in the tested samples when considering all the data together. Significant correlations between HAdV and at least one of the other indicators were observed only when data from individual laboratories were considered. The quantification of HAdV may provide complementary information in relation to the use of bacterial standards in the control of water quality in bathing water.     

Viruses Surveillance Under Different Season Scenarios of the Negro River Basin,Amazonia, Brazil

The Negro River is located in the Amazon basin, the largest hydrological catchment in the world. Its water is used for drinking, domestic activities, recreation and transportation and water quality is significantly affected by anthropogenic impacts. The goals of this study were to determine the presence and concentrations of the main viral etiological agents of acute gastroenteritis, such as group A rotavirus (RVA) and genogroup II norovirus (NoV GII), and to assess the use of human adenovirus (HAdV) and JC polyomavirus (JCPyV) as viral indicators of human faecal contamination in the aquatic environment of Manaus under different hydrological scenarios. Water samples were collected along Negro River and in small streams known as igarapés. Viruses were concentrated by an organic flocculation method and detected by quantitative PCR. From 272 samples analysed, HAdV was detected in 91.9 %, followed by JCPyV (69.5 %), RVA (23.9 %) and NoV GII (7.4 %). Viral concentrations ranged from 10² to 10⁶ GC L^?1 and viruses were more likely to be detected during the flood season, with the exception of NoV GII, which was detected only during the dry season. Statistically significant differences on virus concentrations between dry and flood seasons were observed only for RVA. The HAdV data provides a useful complement to faecal indicator bacteria in the monitoring of aquatic environments. Overall results demonstrated that the hydrological cycle of the Negro River in the Amazon Basin affects the dynamics of viruses in aquatic environments and, consequently, the exposure of citizens to these waterborne pathogens.     

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

This paper applies the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each scenario, impacts are estimated without and with adaptation in the form of increasing dike heights and nourishing beaches. Before 2050, the level of impacts is primarily determined by socio-economic development. In 2100 and assuming no adaptation, 780?×?10³ people/year are estimated to be affected by coastal flooding under A2 and 200?×?10³ people/year under B1. The total monetary damage caused by flooding, salinity intrusion, land erosion and migration is projected to be about US$ 17?×?10⁹ under both scenarios in 2100; damage costs relative to GDP are highest for the Netherlands (0.3% of GDP under A2). Adaptation reduces the number of people flooded by factors of 110 to 288 and total damage costs by factors of 7 to 9. In 2100 adaptation costs are projected to be US$ 3.5?×?10⁹ under A2 and 2.6?×?10⁹ under B1; adaptation costs relative to GDP are highest for Estonia (0.16% under A2) and Ireland (0.05% under A2). These results suggest that adaptation measures to sea-level rise are beneficial and affordable, and will be widely applied throughout the European Union.     

DNA Heat Treatment for Improving qPCR Analysis of Human Adenovirus in Wastewater

PCR inhibitory substances in complex sample matrices can cause false negatives or under-estimation of target concentration. This study assessed DNA heat treatment for reducing inhibition during qPCR analysis of human adenovirus (HAdV) in wastewater samples. Inhibition was reduced by heat treating DNA, where mean HAdV concentration was increased by 0.71 log₁₀ GC/L (and up to 3.04 log₁₀ GC/L in one case), and replicate variability and false negatives were reduced. DNA heat treatment should be further investigated for improving reliability of HAdV concentration estimates in water, which can support more accurate assessment of health risks associated with viral pathogen exposure.     

CH4 emission model from the waste of Sus Domesticus and Gallus Domesticus in Nigerian local farms: environmental implications and prospects

The potential of CH₄ (methane) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on a model of prevailing behavioural pattern of livestock waste management in Nigerian local farms was investigated in this paper. Livestock waste, from Sus domesticus, pig, and Gallus domesticus, poultry, were employed as substrates in the study which uses water from a fish rearing farm as the matrix medium to simulate wastewater pool/river environment. A substrate to fish-water ratio of 1:3 by mass was used in developed laboratory-size digesting reactor system with U-tube water displacement, to facilitate volumetric readings of gas production, for each mix of the livestock waste. Volumetric readings from these, at ambient temperature conditions in the retention time of 32 days, follow the Normal probability density function, in accordance with Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit criteria. These readings showed that CH₄-containing gas as high as 67.3?×?10^?3 dm³ was produced on the 14th day from the pig and 86.8?×?10^?3 dm³ on the 13th day from the poultry substrates. The overall CH₄-containing gas productions of 255.4?×?10^?3 dm³/kg and 323.58?×?10^?3 dm³/kg were observed for the pig and the poultry substrates, respectively. A 70% scale-up analysis, modelled from these results, for the nation yield potential emission of about 4 kg CH₄ (that could be as potent as 84 kg CO₂-equivalent) annually. The environmental implications on global warming and possible prospects of recoverable domestic benefits from the waste through the adoption of sustainable policy of livestock waste managements for mitigating the CH₄ emissions in Nigerian local farms are presented.     

A 1-Year Study on the Detection of Human Enteric Viruses in New Caledonia

Human enteric viruses occur in high concentrations in wastewater and can contaminate receiving environmental waters. Due to the lack of data on the prevalence of enteric viruses in New Caledonia, the presence and the concentrations of enteric viruses in wastewater and seawater were determined. Untreated wastewater and seawater samples were collected monthly for 1 year from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and from the WWTP’s outlet, located directly on a popular recreational beach. Samples were tested for norovirus genogroups I and II (NoV GI and GII), astroviruses (AsV), sapoviruses (SaV), enteroviruses (EV), hepatitis A viruses (HAV), rotaviruses (RoV), human adenoviruses (HAdV) and human polyomaviruses (HPyV). To support these data, faecal samples from cases of gastroenteritis were tested for the first time for NoV and detected in the population. NoV GI, NoV GII, EV, SaV, HAdV and HPyV were detected in all wastewaters, RoV in 75 % and AsV in 67 %. HAV were not detected in wastewater. Overall, 92 % of seawater samples were positive for at least one virus. HPyV were detected most frequently in 92 % of samples and at concentrations up to 7.7 × 10³ genome copies/L. NoV GI, NoV GII, EV, SaV, RoV and HAdV were found in 33, 66, 41, 33, 16 and 66 % of seawater samples, respectively. AsV were not detected in seawater. This study reports for the first time the presence of NoV and other enteric viruses in New Caledonia and highlights the year-round presence of enteric viruses in the seawater of a popular beach.     

Occurrence of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pepper Mild Mottle Virus</Emphasis> (PMMoV) in Groundwater from a Karst Aquifer System in the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

The Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico hosts a karst aquifer system that is the only source of freshwater for the area; however, it is vulnerable to human-mediated contamination. Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) is one of the most abundant RNA viruses associated with human feces, making it a viable indicator for tracking fecal pollution in aquatic environments, including groundwater. In this study, groundwater samples collected from a karst aquifer from fresh and brackish water locations were analyzed for fecal indicator bacteria, somatic and male F+ specific coliphages, and PMMoV during the rainy and dry seasons. Total coliform bacteria were detected at all sites, whereas Escherichia coli were found at relatively low levels <40 MPN/100 ml. The highest average concentrations of somatic and male F+ specific coliphages were 920 and 330 plaque forming units per 100 ml, respectively, detected in freshwater during the rainy season. PMMoV RNA was detected in 85% of the samples with gene sequences sharing 99–100% of nucleotide identity with PMMoV sequences available in GenBank. Quantification of PMMoV genome copies (GC) by quantitative real-time PCR indicated concentrations ranging from 1.7 × 10¹ to 1.0 × 10⁴ GC/L, with the highest number of GC detected during the rainy season. No significant correlation was observed between PMMoV occurrence by season or water type (p > 0.05). Physicochemical and indicator bacteria were not correlated with PMMoV concentrations. The abundance and prevalence of PMMoV in the karst aquifer may reflect its environmental persistence and its potential as a fecal indicator in this karst aquifer system.     

Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021?×?10⁸ m³ for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18?×?10⁸ m³ when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95?×?10⁸ m³ in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.     

Hepatitis A Virus,Hepatitis E Virus,and Rotavirus in Foods of Animal Origin Traded at the Borders of Brazil,Argentina, and Uruguay

The aim of this study was to investigate hepatitis A virus (HAV), hepatitis E (HEV), and rotavirus (RV) in fresh and processed meat traded on the border of Brazil with Argentina and Uruguay. In total, 159 samples of raw and processed foods of animal origin were collected in Paso de los Libres, Argentina (n?=?53 raw meat, n?=?24 processed meat) and Rivera, Uruguay (n?=?55 raw meat, n?=?18 processed meat), or were seized by the Brazilian International Agricultural Surveillance System—VIGIAGRO (Brazil–Argentina border) (n?=?8 raw meat, n?=?1 bush meat). All samples were tested for the presence of HAV, HEV, and RV genomes. HAV genes were detected in 18.23% of samples and RV genes in 23.89%. No HEV-positive samples were detected. HAV was also detected in two of the VIGIAGRO samples. Processed meats from Argentina and Uruguay had a higher rate of HAV and RV than raw meat (P?>?0.05). The median HAV in the Argentinian and Uruguayan samples was 6.9?×?10⁴ and 3.5?×?10³ copies/g, respectively. The presence of RV viral genes in raw meats from Argentina was significant, and this was not observed in processed meats. The presence of HAV and RV genes in a significant portion of products from Argentina and Uruguay is a potential source of human infection. This also indicates precarious conditions of acquisition, processing, and manipulation, which could be improved by improved regulation of food across borders.     

The use of rice crop residues as a non-commercial energy source in the developing world: The energy and environmental implications

The potential biomass energy that can be derived from the harvest of rice crop residues is calculated for three methods of crop production. The potential energy available amounts to 3.70 × 10¹⁰ J ha^?1 year^?1 for traditional methods, 7.93 × 10¹⁰ J for the labor-intensive and 8.36 × 10¹⁰ J for the capital-intensive methods. The net energy benefits available for cooking, heating and biogasification are calculated on a per hectare basis taking into account the costs of collection, transportation and processing. The amounts of energy available for cooking and heating range from 3.70 × 10⁹ to 8.33 × 10⁹ J ha^?1, and the amounts of energy for methanol use range from 1.85 × 10⁹ to 4.17 × 10⁹ J ha^?1 year^?1.The ecological problems associated with soil erosion, nutrient loss and pesticide use are evaluated in terms of the compensatory energy costs involved, and the resultant net energy balance for each method of rice production is calculated. The net energy available per hectare for the traditional method is 3.43 × 10¹⁰ J, for the labor-intensive method, 7.25 × 10¹⁰ J and for the capital-intensive method, 7.02 × 10¹⁰ J. The harvest of rice crop residues in the developing world could provide up to 5.80 × 10¹⁸ J year^?1.The use of rice crop residues is investigated within the context of the rural village energy system. The prospects for the use of rice crop residues are evaluated in relation to alternative energy sources and it is concluded that regional residue harvest programs should be implemented cautiously, integrating soil management and environmental planning procedures where appropriate.     

Detection of Potential Infectious Enteric Viruses in Fresh Produce by (RT)-qPCR Preceded by Nuclease Treatment

Foodborne illnesses associated with contaminated fresh produce are a common public health problem and there is an upward trend of outbreaks caused by enteric viruses, especially human noroviruses (HNoVs) and hepatitis A virus (HAV). This study aimed to assess the use of DNase and RNase coupled to qPCR and RT-qPCR, respectively, to detect intact particles of human adenoviruses (HAdVs), HNoV GI and GII and HAV in fresh produce. Different concentrations of DNase and RNase were tested to optimize the degradation of free DNA and RNA from inactivated HAdV and murine norovirus (MNV), respectively. Results indicated that 10 µg/ml of RNase was able to degrade more than 4 log₁₀ (99.99%) of free RNA, and 1 U of DNase degraded the range of 0.84–2.5 log₁₀ of free DNA depending on the fresh produce analysed. The treatment with nucleases coupled to (RT)-qPCR was applied to detect potential infectious virus in organic lettuce, green onions and strawberries collected in different seasons. As a result, no intact particles of HNoV GI and GII were detected in the 36 samples analysed, HAdV was found in one sample and HAV was present in 33.3% of the samples, without any reasonable distribution pattern among seasons. In conclusion, RT-qPCR preceded by RNase treatment of eluted samples from fresh produce is a good alternative to detect undamaged RNA viruses and therefore, potential infectious viruses. Moreover, this study provides data about the prevalence of enteric viruses in organic fresh produce from Brazil.     

Quantification and Genotyping of Aichi Virus 1 in Water Samples in the Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

Aichi virus 1 genomes were detected by quantitative PCR in groundwater from shallow dug (10/22) and tube wells (1/15), river water (14/14), and sewage (1/1), with the maximum concentration of 4.0 × 10⁹ copies/l. Nucleotide sequencing analysis demonstrated the prevalence of genotype B in the virus positive samples.     

农药企业场地苯系物污染风险及调控对策

苯系物是一类重要的环境污染物,可通过呼吸道、消化道和皮肤进入人体而产生危害,其毒性主要表现在对人体致畸、致突变和致癌等方面.以河北省某农药企业为例,采用吹扫捕集气质联用、固体吸附/热脱附-气相色谱和EPA健康风险评价模型,对场地内苯系物的分布及人体健康风险进行了综合分析,并据此提出相应的风险调控对策建议.结果表明,厂区内土壤、灰尘、空气、地下水及废水中均不同程度检出苯系物,生产区内灰尘中苯系物含量较高(7.33 mg.kg-1),其中甲苯的含量(5.64 mg.kg-1)超过了加拿大工业用地标准.设定10 a、20 a、30 a这3个工作年限情景,相应的总非致癌危害指数分别为4.19×10-3、8.25×10-3和1.22×10-2,均小于1;苯的致癌危害指数依次是1.70×10-7、3.34×10-7和4.92×10-7,小于10-6,表明该企业场地苯系物对职工尚没有造成明显的致癌和非致癌风险,但是随着工作年限的增加,职工受到健康危害的风险程度加大.基于研究结果,提出了厂区环境质量改善和人员安全防护的风险对策建议.     

北京某小学室内外VOC浓度及有毒害物种识别

采用美国EPA推荐的TO14/15方法定量分析了北京市某小学室内外夏季观测的空气样品,得到82种挥发性有机物（VOCs）的浓度水平及组成特征,对其中可能危害儿童健康的有毒有害物质进行了识别.结果表明,室内总VOCs浓度高于室外,烷烃是含量最丰富物种,平均占室内外空气中定量VOCs总浓度的32.8%.室内外VOCs组成相似,异戊烷、苯、甲苯、丙醛、丙烯和二氯甲烷为浓度优势物种,受到室外源的影响较大,室内的对二氯苯、环己烷及间二氯苯较为特征,前2种物质室内/室外浓度比例平均值分别为65.8和10.5,间二氯苯室内平均浓度为2.02×10^-9（体积分数）,而室外浓度低于检测限,这3种物质可能来自室内源. 1, 3-丁二烯、氯乙烯、苯和氯甲烷4种物质在学校室内、室外及儿童家中都超过1×10^-6的癌症风险值,平均风险值分别为1.3×10^-5、 6.4×10^-6、 5.1×10^-6和3.3×10^-6,小学室外、室内及儿童家中的累积癌症风险超过1×10^-6的癌症风险值24～39倍.丙烯醛未确认具有致癌性,但具有毒有害性,在室内外及儿童家中超过基准浓度13～72倍.     

Prediction of enteric methane emission from cattle using linear and non-linear statistical models in tropical production systems

The objective of this study was to develop linear and nonlinear statistical models to predict enteric methane emission (EME) from cattle (Bos) in the tropics based on dietary and animal characteristic variables. A database from 35 publications, which included 142 mean observations of EME measured on 830 cattle, was constructed to develop EME prediction models. Several extant equations of EME developed for North American and European cattle were also evaluated for suitability of those equations in this dataset. The average feed intake and methane production were 7.7?±?0.34 kg/day and 7.99?±?0.39 MJ/day, respectively. The simple linear equation that predicted EME with high precision and accuracy was: methane (MJ/day)?=?1.29_(±0.906)?+?0.878_(±0.125)?×?dry matter intake (DMI, kg/day), [root mean square prediction error (RMSPE)?=?31.0 % with 92 % of RMSPE being random error; R ²?=?0.70]. Multiple regression equation that predicted methane production slightly better than simple prediction equations was: methane (MJ/day)?=?0.910_(±0.746)?+?1.472_(±0.154)?×?DMI (kg/day) – 1.388_(±0.451)?×?feeding level as a multiple of maintenace energy intake – 0.669_(±0.338)?×?acid detergent fiber intake (kg/day), [RMSPE?=?22.2 %, with 99.6 % of MSPE from random error; R ²?=?0.84]. Among the nonlinear equations developed, Mitscherlich model, i.e., methane (MJ/day)?=?71.47_(±22.14.6)?×?(1 - exp{?0.0156_(±0.0051)?×?DMI (kg/day), [RMSPE?=?30.3 %, with 97.6 % of RMSPE from random error; R ²?=?0.83] performed better than simple linear and other nonlinear models, but the predictability and goodness of fits of the equation did not improve compared with the multiple regression models. Extant equations overestimated EME, and many extant models had low accuracy and precision. The equations developed in this study will be useful for improved estimates of national methane inventory preparation and for a better understanding of dietary factors influencing EME for tropical cattle feeding systems.