COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DROUGHT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Predicting the likelihood of a drought markedly enhances the efficiency of reservoir operations. This study applies the kriging method and time series analysis to predict inflows to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. A subsequent reservoir operation simulation is employed to determine the drought lead time (DLT), the time before the onset of a drought. A more efficient reservoir operational strategy can be established with the aid of DLT and the probability of successful drought prediction (P s). Simulation results of reservoir operation over a period of three decades demonstrate that, at one month DLT, the kriging approach achieves 0.86 of P s for moderate droughts and 0.94 of P s for severe droughts. The kriging approach generally outperformed the time series approach in terms of DLT, P s of drought prediction, and the number of correctly predicted drought events.     

Assessment of public–private–NGO partnerships: Water and sanitation services in slums

The Self‐Employed Women's Association (SEWA) is a trade union founded in 1972 to organize women in the informal sector in the western Indian state of Gujarat for better working conditions and social security provisions. The Gujarat Mahila Housing SEWA Trust (MHT) and the SEWA Bank are independently registered SEWA sister organizations that facilitate self‐employed women's access to housing and financial services, respectively. This paper seeks to document and critically analyze the experiences of MHT and SEWA Bank in partnering with the state, the private sector, funding agencies, urban local bodies and other NGOs in developing and delivering housing, water and sanitation programs for low‐income urban families living in slums. Using MHT as a case study, this paper will shed light upon challenges and opportunities NGOs may face while collaborating with partners with different core philosophies, motivations, working styles, strengths and constraints. The paper also makes recommendations that would enable different actors to play an optimal role in partnerships designed to improve the living and working conditions of the poor.     

The Role of Women in Water Management and Conflict Resolution in Marsabit,Kenya

We employed qualitative methods to explore how conflict over water collection and use impacts women, and the role that women play in water management and conflict resolution in Marsabit, Kenya. Conflicts between domestic and livestock water led to insufficient water for domestic use and intra-household conflict. Women’s contributions to water management were valued, especially through informal initiatives, though involvement in statutory water management committees was not culturally appropriate. Promoting culturally appropriate ways to involve women in water management, rather than merely increasing the percentage of women on water committee, may reduce conflicts and increase women’s access to domestic water supplies.     

Elderly Adi Women of Arunachal Pradesh: “Living Encyclopedias” and Cultural Refugia in Biodiversity Conservation of the Eastern Himalaya, India

Elderly women of a particular socioecological system are considered to be “living encyclopedias” in biocultural knowledge systems. These women play a pivotal role in retaining and passing on biodiversity-related traditional knowledge to the next generations. Unfortunately the fast changing sociocultural values and the impact of modernity have rendered their knowledge somewhat less valuable and they are being treated as “cultural refugia.” Our study on the importance of these women in the conservation of indigenous biodiversity was conducted in 14 randomly selected villages dominated by the Adi tribe of East Siang District, Arunachal Pradesh (northeast India). Data were collected from 531 women (381 elderly and 150 young to middle aged) during 2003–2008 using conventional social science methods and participatory rural appraisal. One innovative method, namely “recipe contest,” was devised to mobilize Adi women of each village in order to energies them and explore their knowledge relating to traditional foods, ethnomedicines, and conservation of indigenous biodiversity. Results indicated that 55 plant species are being used by elderly Adi women in their food systems, while 34 plant species are integral parts of ethnomedicinal practices. These women identified different plant species found under multistory canopies of community forests. Elderly women were particularly skilled in preparing traditional foods including beverages and held significantly greater knowledge of indigenous plants than younger women. Lifelong experiences and cultural diversity were found to influence the significance of biodiversity use and conservation. The conservation of biodiversity occurs in three different habitats: jhum lands (shifting cultivation), Morang forest (community managed forests), and home gardens. The knowledge and practice of elderly women about habitats and multistory vegetations, regenerative techniques, selective harvesting, and cultivation practices contribute significantly to food and livelihood security while sustaining an array of threatened plant species. Basically, knowledge of elderly women on using biodiversity in food and medicinal systems was found in three categories namely: “individual,” “community,” and “refined.” We identified a need to develop holistic policies to recognize and integrate knowledge and practices of elderly women with local level of planning on sustainable conservation of biodiversity as well as community-based adaptations.     

Recent Ogallala Aquifer Region Drought Conditions as Observed by Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies from GRACE

Recent severe drought events have occurred over the Ogallala Aquifer region (OAR) during the period 2011–2015, creating significant impacts on water resources and their use in regional environmental and economic systems. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), as indicated by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), reveals a detailed picture of the temporal and spatial evolution of drought events. The observations by GRACE indicate the worst drought conditions occurred in September 2012, with an average TWS deficit of ~8 cm in the northern OAR and ~11 cm in the southern OAR, consistent with precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Comparing changes in TWS with precipitation shows the TWS changes can be predominantly attributable to variations in precipitation. Power spectrum and squared wavelet coherence analysis indicate a significant correlation between TWS change and the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, and the influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures on TWS change is much stronger in the southern OAR than the northern OAR. The results of this study illustrate the value of GRACE in not just the diagnosis of significant drought events, but also in possibly improving the predictive power of remote signals that are impacted by nonregional climatic events (El Nino), ultimately leading to improved water resource management applications on a regional scale. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Applying Integrated Urban Water Management Concepts: A Review of Australian Experience

This article explores recent Australian experiences in the application of the concept of integrated urban water management (IUWM) to land development sites through the review of 15 case studies. It discusses lUWM’s emergence and comments on the success or otherwise of Australian experience in its application. The understanding of IUWM is maturing within the Australian water industry, an occurrence that has been facilitated by demonstration sites such as those reviewed. Successes include the translation of IUWM concepts into well-functioning operational urban developments, significant reductions in the impact of the urban developments on the total water cycle, and the increasing acceptance of the concept within the water and land development industries. However, there is still room for greater integration of the water supply, stormwater, and wastewater components of the urban water cycle, improved dissemination of knowledge, enhancement of skills in both public and private organisations, and monitoring the performance of systems and technologies.     

Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought1

Polebitski, Austin S. and Richard N. Palmer, 2012. Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00691.x Abstract: This research investigates customer response to demand management strategies during two drought periods in the City of Seattle. An analysis of customer response to voluntary water curtailments is conducted using k‐means clustering to identify like groups of customers and behavior patterns. The clustering method identified important variables (household income, lot size, living space, and family size) useful in determining customer response to water curtailments. Ordinary least squares and spatial lag regression models are estimated using the first and second principal components of variables identified in the clustering analysis. Larger values of income, lot size, and living space enhanced water reductions whereas larger family size tended to reduce the effectiveness of curtailments. Projections of changes in Seattle’s built environment and demographics between 2000 and 2030 were obtained from an urban simulation model (UrbanSim) and were processed through the regression models to investigate changes in future curtailment effectiveness. This research found that increasing household size hardened demands (decreased curtailment effectiveness) whereas decreasing household size increased per‐capita curtailment effectiveness. These results suggest that changes in the number of residents within a home is likely to be the most important factor in determining future curtailment effectiveness.     

Wistful wilderness: communication about ‘new’ nature in the Netherlands

Based on in-depth interviews, this article presents findings of a study centred on public communication regarding Tiengemeten, a Dutch island previously occupied by farmers. An answer is sought to the question of how visitors to Tiengemeten evaluate, according to their own experiences, the discourse of people involved in Tiengemeten from a policy and communication perspective. This study showed that visitors’ experiences do not always match the emotions appealed to in public communication materials. It is also suggested that people involved from a policy and communication perspective should refrain from using ‘heavily value-laden’ phraseology. For reasons of trust, this article suggests aligning public communication with genuine experiences of visitors. This is also necessary for avoiding scepticism of visitors as policy makers and communication professionals run a risk that public communication regarding nature becomes counterproductive.     

Nutritional risks of vegan diets to women and children: Are they preventable?

The potential health risks of vegan diets specifically for women and children are discussed. Women and children are at higher risk of malnutrition from consumption of unsupplemented vegan diets than are adult males. Those who are very young, pregnant, lactating, elderly, or who suffer from poverty, disease or other environmentally induced disadvantages are at special risk. The size of these risks is difficult to quantify from existing studies. Fortunately the risk of dietary deficiency disease can be avoided and the potential health benefits of vegan diets can be realized when diets for these groups are planned in line with theRecommended Dietary Allowances so that nutrient intakes reach or exceed recommended levels, and access to preventive and curative health services is assured.     

Tribal institutions and conservation of the bioculturally valuable ‘tasat’ (Arenga obtusifolia) tree in the eastern Himalaya

This study reports on the biocultural dimensions of the tasat (Arenga obtusifolia Griff.) tree and its conservation by various informal institutions of the Adi tribe of Arunachal Pradesh, India. The study included 240 Adi community members (120 men and 120 women) residing in 12 villages of the East Siang and Upper Siang districts of Arunachal Pradesh. The study was conducted using personal interviews and participatory methods. Results indicated that the stem of tasat is used as a traditional food during droughts and in preparing an ethnic beverage. Tasat is being conserved by the Adi tribe in various habitats. Plant populations of tasat were observed relatively higher in Upper Siang than the East Siang district. The study found differences in the status of biocultural knowledge between genders and different age groups. Kebang and reglep are two indigenous institutions of men and women, respectively, and play leading roles in sustaining tasat plants in various habitats. Women of the Upper Siang district still maintain a knowledge network for diffusing biocultural knowledge related to tasat, among others, through a barter system. Changing land use patterns in agriculture affects tasat conservation. The value addition for tasat based products, and rewarding women who conserve tasat, can enhance the sustainability of tasat based on biocultural knowledge and institutions.     

Empowering Women: A Labor Rights-Based Approach: Case Studies from East African Horticultural Farms

This article discusses the hitherto little-studied question of women workers’ empowerment through access to labor rights in the east African export horticultural sector. It is based on the work carried out by Women Working Worldwide and its east African partners, drawing on primary research on cut-flower farms in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. The focus in discussions of women’s empowerment has tended to be on individual actors rather than collective strategies. We argue that strategies such as action research, education, organization and advocacy focusing on labor rights are effective in gendered empowerment and can bring positive change to women’s working lives on African farms, and beyond.     

The role of personal experience in frequency of rainwater tank maintenance and policy implications

Domestic rainwater tanks have a long history in Australia, although more recently they have been common only in remote and rural areas. However, in some urban areas, recent drought conditions have led to the promotion of rainwater tanks to supplement domestic water supplies. Evidence suggests that water tank maintenance may be insufficient in many cases, leading to problems with water quality and the potential spread of vector-borne disease. Drawing on research into the impact of personal experience (i.e. procedural knowledge) relating to pro-environmental behaviour, a survey of urban residents with mandated rainwater tanks (N?=?746) was conducted. The study assessed whether past personal history of living with a tank influenced the frequency of tank maintenance behaviours. Analyses indicated that both childhood and prior adult experience with rainwater tanks were important in predicting adequate tank maintenance behaviour, particularly among males. The results also showed that attitudinal perceptions of water culture did not influence maintenance behaviour, whereas direct past experiences did, suggesting an important role for procedural knowledge. These results are discussed with reference to the promotion of tank maintenance and other pro-environmental behaviours through the development of future environmental policies designed to foster the development of pro-environmental skills to empower citizens.     

Release,Dispersion, and Resuspension of Escherichia coli From Direct Fecal Deposits Under Controlled Flows1

Abstract: Water‐quality standards have been placed on fecal indicator organisms such as Escherichia coli in an attempt to limit the concentrations in water bodies. Cattle can be a significant source of bacteria to water systems, particularly when they are allowed direct access to streams. A flume study was conducted to quantify the effect and understand the transport of E. coli from directly deposited cattle manure. Five steady‐state flows, ranging from 0.00683 to 0.0176 m³/s, were studied and loads from a single cowpie exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended water‐quality standards (235 CFU/100 ml) at each flow over the hour study period. Average E. coli concentrations ranged from 10² to 10⁵ CFU/100 ml over the hour sampling period for all flows. High spatial variations in E. coli concentrations were often seen at each sampling time, with higher concentrations typically at the bottom of the flume. E. coli resuspension was initially greater at 0.5 min after deposition, for the lowest flow (10⁵ CFU/m²/s); however, resuspension rates became similar over time, on the order of 10³ CFU/m²/s. This study demonstrates that the concentrations of E. coli can vary over the water column, and therefore grab samples may inaccurately measure bacteria concentrations and loads in streams. In addition, resuspension rates were often high, so the incorporation of this process into water‐quality models is important for bacteria prediction.     

Experts and the sense of things

ABSTRACT

In a world, in which measurements, indices and agreed-upon standards are ubiquitous, Bessy and Chateauraynaud’s work on experts and counterfeiters has gained new relevance. The French social scientists provide a rich theory on the sense of things, explaining how experts evaluate the authenticity of objects. Along with the mobilisation of a shared language and stabilised criteria, the sense of things generates from everyday interactions between experts and objects. While social scientists tend to prioritise the study of the commonly-accepted aspects of evaluation, the concept of the sense of things directs attention to the subtle micro interactions and sensory experiences on the ground. This process can initiate shifts in stabilised evaluations of the true and false. This article presents the central theoretical arguments of the book “Experts et Faussaires” (Experts and Counterfeiters) and sketches their relevance for the study of environmental phenomena.     

The relationship between daylight and happiness for women in residential districts of Isfahan,Iran

This study explores the relationship between daylight exposure in urban residential units and the mood/happiness of nonworking female residents (housewives) in Isfahan, Iran. A growing body of evidence points to the physiological and psychological benefits of daylight, yet few studies have focused on the relationship between residential daylight and women's mental health. A cross‐sectional study was conducted using two‐stage random cluster sampling of nonworking female occupants of buildings in four residential districts. Mood/happiness was determined using the Oxford Happiness Inventory and the Fordyce Happiness Inventory. Spearman's rank correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between the variables. A significant relationship was found between residents’ happiness and the amount of daylight in their residential units (Oxford Inventory, r = 0.68, P < 0.05; Fordyce Inventory, r = 0.53, P < 0.05). The findings suggest that features of physical residential environments, such as daylight, may be linked to the happiness of housewives. Persons belonging to various demographic groups who spend the majority of their time indoors (e.g., housewives, children, elderly individuals, and people with disabilities) are most dependent on architecture and environmental design for their well‐being, and therefore, are most affected by design decisions.     

How Good? Ethical Criteria for a ‘Good Life’ for Farm Animals

The Farm Animal Welfare Council’s concept of a Good Life gives an idea of an animal’s quality of life that is over and above that of a mere life worth living. The concept needs explanation and clarification, in order to be meaningful, particularly for consumers who purchase farm animal produce. The concept could allow assurance schemes to apply the label to assessments of both the potential of each method of production, conceptualised in ways expected to enhance consumers’ engagement such as ‘naturalness’ and ‘freedom’; and the concept of a life worth living as a safeguard threshold below which no animal’s actual welfare should fall, based on each animal’s overall affective states. This may provide a framework for development of the Good Life concept, within scientific and sociological fields, in order to allow reliable and influential use by assessors, consumers and retailers.     

Managing Drought Through Water Markets: Farmer Preferences in the Rio Grande Basin1

Abstract: Managing drought in agriculture has taken on growing importance as population growth and environmental concerns place increasing pressures on agricultural water use. One alternative for agricultural water resource management in areas of recurrent drought is allocation through market mechanisms. While past research has aimed to explain why farmers are reluctant to participate in already established water markets, this research seeks to identify the appropriate market mechanism given farmers’ preexisting attitudes toward water markets. Statistical analysis of survey data from 166 farmer interviews in the Rio Grande Basin indicate that farmers are significantly more likely to participate in short‐term water mechanisms, such as spot water markets and water banks than in permanent transfer mechanisms, particularly those that fully separate water rights from land. In sharp contrast to expectations, the choice of market mechanism did not differ significantly between farmers based on their a priori intention to buy, sell or both buy and sell in these markets. Choice of market mechanism also did not differ among farmer types although small, lifestyle or hobby farmers clearly preferred spot water markets to other types of short‐term mechanisms. Evaluating these attitudes a priori may help to design more suitable water market mechanisms for the basin.     

How Green is Too Green? Public Opinion of What Constitutes Undesirable Algae Levels in Streams1

Abstract: A public opinion survey was carried out in Montana to ascertain if the public identifies a level of benthic (bottom‐attached) river and stream algae that is undesirable for recreation. The survey had two parts; an On‐River survey and a By‐Mail survey. The On‐River survey was conducted via 44 trips randomly scheduled throughout the state during which recreators were interviewed in‐person at the stream. Selection of stream segments and survey dates/times was based on known, statewide recreational use patterns. By‐Mail survey forms were sent to 2,000 individuals randomly selected from Montana’s Centralized Voter File (CVF) available from the Montana Secretary of State. The CVF was current through 2004 and represented over 85% of the state’s eligible voting population. In both surveys, eight randomly ordered photographs depicting varying levels of stream benthic algae were presented, and participants were asked if the algae level shown was desirable or undesirable for recreation. Survey form design, selection of photographs, and pretesting followed acceptable protocols that limited unintentional bias through survey execution. There were 433 returned forms (389 complete) for the By‐Mail survey, while the On‐River survey documented 563 interviews. In both surveys, as benthic algal chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels increased, desirability for recreation decreased. (Other measures of benthic algae biomass are presented as well.) For the public majority, mean benthic Chl a levels ≥200 mg/m² were determined to be undesirable for recreation, whereas mean levels ≤150 mg Chl a/m² were found to be desirable. Error rates were within the survey’s statistical design criteria (≤5%). The largest potential error source was nonresponse in the By‐Mail survey; however, the population represented by nonrespondents would have to exhibit profoundly different perceptions of river and stream algae to meaningfully alter the results. Results support earlier work in the literature suggesting 150 mg Chl a/m² represents a benthic algae nuisance threshold.     

Overtown: neighbourhood,change, challenge and “invironment”

This paper explores how residents of Overtown, a low-income neighbourhood in Miami, Florida, view the positive and negative aspects of their neighbourhood “invironment” through photographs taken by residents. The “invironment” [Bell, M., 2004. An invitation to environmental sociology. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press] alludes to the interactions between environment/surroundings and the human body. Residents involved with a community social justice organisation were provided with a photographic workshop and cameras to visually document the positive and negative aspects of their neighbourhood. These participant photographers provided narratives paired with their photographs which were then exhibited at local community events. During the exhibits, community members’ comments on the photographs were recorded. This paper analyses community issues through both photographs and neighbourhood comments inspired by the photographs. The following themes of importance to residents were derived from the photographs and discussion with residents: Housing, Public Space, Neighbourhood Economy, History, Environmental/Invironmental Issues, Human Capital and Power. These themes were all connected by residents’ concerns about inequality in Overtown compared to other neighbourhoods in Miami.