Regionale Klimatrends mit Hilfe der phänologischen Uhr, dargestellt am Beispiel Rheinland-Pfalz

Aims and Scope

Over recent decades, the climate has changed. Up to now this statement has been made predominantly for the global and/or continental area. What, however, is the situation regarding the climatic trend at the regional scale? Is it already possible to show effects of a climate change in small-scale landscape structures? These questions were addressed looking at the example of the situation in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany).

Methods

Phenological data of plants of the last 50 years from a total of 386 stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) were evaluated. The timing of the different plant phases, beginning of the foliation and plant senescence in autumn, flowering and the first ripening of the fruits had to be registered for different agricultural crops, wild plants, ornamental woods as well as fruit trees. The analysed data material was used to develop the threefold phenological clock (DPU).

Results

Summarising the findings of the DPU for the 15 evaluated nature districts of Rhineland-Palatinate according to individual seasons, which were defined in generic terms as spring, summer, autumn and winter, a tendency of a prematuring of the spring, a prolongation of the autumn as well as a shortening of the winter is evident. From a regional point of view, on the other hand, in individual nature districts such as the ‘Westerwald’ and the ‘Bergisch-Sauerländische Gebirge’, winter seasons are getting longer. Thus the effects of a climate change can differ considerably from region to region.

Outlook

The regionally quite different changes of the climatic situation in Rhineland-Palatinate will not remain without an effect on the ecosystems of this federal state. The currently existing biocoenosis will therefore change. The consequences for forestry, agriculture and nature conservation are of special interest in this context.     

Die Kosten des Dieselbooms

Background

In many European states the number of cars equipped with diesel engines has dramatically increased since around ten years. This situation is quantified for Germany. Driven by the political motivation to reduce CO₂-emissions, increase of diesel cars has been stimulated by governmental measures of European as well as state bodies in co-operation with the industry.

Results

Reduction of CO₂-emissions with the help of diesel cars remained relatively small. On contrast, diesel cars are emitting much more of nitric oxides and fine particles compared with gasoline driven cars. Excess emissions by the ‘diesel boom’ are quantified. Health costs and impact on agricultural crops as well as on forestry are estimated with respect to the order of magnitude. Health costs caused by the inhalation of diesel combustion particles emitted by only the excess diesel cars in Germany are in the order of 200 Mio Euro per year. Knowledge gaps of the impact of ultra fine particles as well as of the action of particle traps are demonstrated.

Conclusion and Recommendation

In the public, particle numbers need to be discussed instead of particle emission loads (g km^?1) which have an insufficient correlation to health effects. Much more data are needed as to the toxicologically relevant particle size of <20 nm. Effectiveness and sustainability of a CO₂-reduction strategy by diesel cars are generally questioned.     

Versuchsanlage zur energetischen Beurteilung von Substraten und Kofermentaten für Biogasanlagen

Goal, Scope and Background

Worldwide energy requirements are constantly increasing. Rising prices and the necessity to secure the future energy supply have led the decision-makers in politics and economy to focus on the more intensive use of their own resources. Before the background of possible climatic effects caused by the use of fossil energies, the use of renewable resources as primary energies, with its narrow C-circulation, have gained in importance, particularly in terms of economic aspects. The production of biogas is of specific interest here. It is a sensible ecological investment and a solid source of income for our agriculture.

Material and Methods

The operator uses a complex biological system in a plant with high investment costs. An economic operation is only possible if the process parameters are optimized and the properties of the substrates and the co-ferments are known. For the important determination of the blogas potential, we present an efficient and robust system, which is easy to handle and low cost, that has been developed by the LHL and LLH at the Eichhof. This procedure enables one to make statements on the implementation dynamics and is also suited to judge the fermentation process depending on the size of particles, as the co-ferments are used in a practice-oriented consistency.

Results

With the described fermentation apparatus you can not only assess the potential development of biogas and methane, but also the process of fermentation. The sum-graphs determined allow one to make conclusions on the implementation dynamics and, thus, on the optimization of the process. The advanced equipment makes it possible to determine the process of fermentation and the gas yield under different retention times and digester loads. The determination of the potential of the biogas and also the evaluation of the continuous fermentation are related to a specific correction factor won from the standard.

Discussion

A prerequisite for economic process management is the knowledge of the attainable gas yield and the fermentation process of substrates and co-ferments. A precise calibration is the quality basis for the results achieved with this method, as is the case with other fermentation tests as well. For the tests, a highly homogeneous substrate, which guarantees a continuous biological activity in the digesters, ought to be used. The possibility of determining optimum retention times and digester loads with this equipment makes costly tests with a full scale reactor unnecessary.

Conclusions

All tests run demonstrated that the fermentation apparatus originally developed to determine the biogas yield is absolutely suited to also assess the impact of different digester loads and retention times.

Recommendations

The problem of the suitability and the potential of different materials, the optimum reactor performance and the combination of different processes of energy generation from renewable but also conventional resources will increaseingly become the focus of laboratory tests. The following subjects have to be taken into account:

- Testing different materials on their suitability

- Evaluation security of common and new co-ferments

- Guidelines for mixtures to optimize reactor performance

- Mixtures of different substrates and co-ferments available to a particular operator (also with the help of simulation models)

- Processing changing quantity proportions of plants won from a rotation of crops altered for energy generation

- Other parameters like pre-fermentation, particle size and fer mentation supplements.

Perspective

These tests with a high practical relevance are supposed to contribute to a reliable method of producing biogas, in order to optimize the yield of gas production, but also to find a calibration of less costly procedures like those involving Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS).     

Mapping atmospheric depositions of cadmium and lead in Germany based on EMEP deposition data and the European Moss Survey 2005

Background

The vertical migration of phytoplankton was investigated in natural waters using in situ fluorescence profiling, chlorophyll a concentrations and life counts at two study sites differing in coloured dissolved organic matter (cDOM) concentrations. The data from the corresponding water depths (50-cm intervals down to 10 m) and times (hourly, before dawn to sunset, several days) were related to the highly resolved (2 nm) underwater ultraviolet radiation (UVR)/photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) transparency (290 to 700 nm).

Results

Chlorophyll a maxima of mainly motile dinoflagellates were observed in situ at all days and at both study sites (open marine, brackish waters), independent on prevailing weather conditions or cDOM concentrations. Phytoplankton migration was triggered solely by irradiance in the 400- to 700-nm wavelength range (PAR) at the particular water depth, irrespective of PAR/UVR ratios and surface UVR (290 to 400 nm), after an illumination period of about 40 min. Interestingly, the PAR tolerance levels of the phytoplankton, which have been lower in cDOM-rich waters, matched their light acclimation values determined by parallel PAM measurements.

Conclusions

The response of the phytoplankton to PAR is not a sufficient protection strategy versus increasing UVR levels, which might have wide ecological implications beyond the level of primary producers to impact important ecosystem functions such as the delicate trophic interactions.     

Ansätze zur regionalen Quantifizierung von Methan aus Pflanzen

Background

Methane as a gas influencing our climate is of high importance according to the Kyoto-Protocol. The more precisely we can determine anthropogenic and biogenic sources, the more effective measures we can take to reduce the gas. Direct emission of methane from plants apparently contributes significantly to the total emission but has not been accounted for in emission balances until now.

Methods

A model was created to calculate methane emission for a short time period in regional resolution for Lower Austria and to relate the results to known literature.

Results and Discussion

First model results suggest that the amount of methane released from plants in relation to emissions from other known sources are of importance.

Perspectives

The uncertainties associated with both measurements and quantification require reduction by further research.     

Regionaler Klimawandel Sachsen

Goal and Background

Since consequences of global climate change include even contradicting directions and trends in different regions and seasons, regional studies are a necessity to understand regional problems and risks. Extreme precipitation is a highly variable climate element in time and space with serious economic and ecological impacts. The analysis of changes in the Saxonian precipitation characteristics is one constituent in our understanding of global climate change and regional climate-related risk assessment.

Methods

Changes of regional precipitation patterns and their extremes were analysed based upon data from 21 stations in Saxony from 1934 to 2000. Eighteen stations delivered 50-year data sets (1951–2000) and three stations (Altmörbitz, Chemnitz, Neuhausen) delivered daily precipitation data over 67 years (1934–2000). Differentiated by season and half-year periods, trends were calculated for the relevant parameters by linear regression. The trend significance was determined by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall-trend test.

Results and Conclusion

In the summer half of the year, distinctively more dry conditions developed. Over the same period, the winter half of the year became more wet. Regarding trends of extreme precipitation, a strong dependency to the size of the choosen treshold value exists. During the summer, size and excess frequency of the 90^th and 95^th percentiles have increased, whereas they decreased in the winter. On the other hand, the half year trends of the 99^th percentile are predominantly positive. Particularly the trend towards more dry conditions in summer is of substantial relevance for the economy and water management.

Recommendations and Perspective

The additional analysis of further precipitation data sets, provided by the Saxonion Climate database, will advance the regional accuracy of the presented findings. In addition work on the adjustment of an extreme distribution to daily and monthly precipitation sums is needed, and an effect-related definition of dry periods needs to be developed.     

Spatial impacts of climate factors on regional agricultural and forestry biomass resources in north-eastern province of China

The dynamics of agricultural and forestry biomass are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in high latitude regions. Heilongjiang Province was selected as research area in North-east China. We explored the trend of regional climate warming and distribution feature of biomass resources, and then analyzed on the spatial relationship between climate factors and biomass resources. Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the key indicators of vegetation productivity, and was simulated as base data to calculate the distribution of agricultural and forestry biomass. The results show that temperatures rose by up to 0.37°C/10a from 1961 to 2013. Spatially, the variation of agricultural biomass per unit area changed from -1.93 to 5.85 t·km^–2·a^–1 during 2000–2013. More than 85% of farmland areas showed a positive relationship between agricultural biomass and precipitation. The results suggest that precipitation exerts an overwhelming climate influence on agricultural biomass. The mean density of forestry biomass varied from 10 to 30 t·km^–2. Temperature had a significant negative effect on forestry biomass in Lesser Khingan and northern Changbai Mountain, because increased temperature leads to decreased Rubisco activity and increased respiration in these areas. Precipitation had a significant positive relationship with forestry biomass in south-western Changbai Mountain, because this area had a warmer climate and stress from insufficient precipitation may induce xylem cavitation. Understanding the effects of climate factors on regional biomass resources is of great significance in improving environmental management and promoting sustainable development of further biomass resource use.

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Entscheidungsanalytische Simulation formalisierter Umweltmediationsabläufe

Goal and Scope

During the last 10 years environmental mediation has become a popular instrument in Germany to solve environmental conflicts. Environmental mediation is a voluntary negotiation process that is supported by a neutral third person and in which those involved in a conflict jointly search for solutions that are acceptable to all. The simulation of mediation processes can be used to determine the main factors that influence the progression of the conflict and to assess the potential and limits of environmental mediation.

Methods

In this article a decision-theoretical, dynamic model is discussed which is used to simulate a formalized mediation process. It covers, over and above the standard assumptions, the role of emotions. They are the missing link between a state of conflict, and rational, utility maximizing behavior as it is postulated in standard economics.

Results and Conclusions

With this model, the effects of several different parameter sets have been tested. Here, the willingness of the parties to negotiate and to agree to a compromise solution is discussed as well as the role of the integrated emotions which are envy and anger.

Outlook

Due to the large amount of data produced by the model, the evaluation has so far mainly focused on the results of the mediation process. For future research, a more detailed analysis of the simulation runs as well as experiments can help to make the model more realistic.     

The effect of export to the deep sea on the long-range transport potential of persistent organic pollutants

Background

Export to the deep sea has been found to be a relevant pathway for highly hydrophobic chemicals. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of this process on the potential for long-range transport (LRT) of such chemicals.

Methods

The spatial range as a measure of potential for LRT is calculated for seven PCB congeners with the multimedia fate and transport model ChemRange. Spatial ranges for cases with and without deep sea export are compared.

Results and Discussion

Export to the deep sea leads to increased transfer from the air to the surface ocean and, thereby, to lower spatial ranges for PCB congeners whose net deposition rate constant is similar to or greater than the atmospheric degradation rate constant. This is fulfilled for the PCB congeners 101, 153, 180, and 194. The spatial ranges of the congeners 8, 28, and 52, in contrast, are not affected by deep sea export. With export to the deep sea included in the model, the spatial ranges of the heavier congener are similar to those of the lighter ones, while the intermediate congeners 101 and 153 have the highest potential for long-range transport.

Conclusions

Transfer to the deep ocean affects the mass balance and the potential for LRT of highly hydrophobic chemicals and should be included in multimedia fate models containing a compartment for ocean water.     

Bewertung der Luftqualität in Rheinland-Pflaz mittels verschiedener Luftqualitätsindizes

Goal and Scope

The constant increase of traffic and the rising energy and material consumption both in industry and trade as well as in private households mean a constant challenge to environmental protection and to the air pollution control. With the commencement of the Federal ambient pollution control act in April 1974, the legal basis for the monitoring of air pollution was created. In future, the limit values laid down in the Council Directive 1999/30/EG, 2000/69/EG and 96/62/EG, will be valid. In town and regional planning there is a great demand for a simple index to evaluate the air quality. From the available data of PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃, CO, SO₂, trends of the air quality will be derived.

Methods

The indices LQI and TLQ suggested by Mayer et al. (2002) were calculated for selected stations of the air pollution monitoring network (ZIMEN) in Rhineland-Palatine. All analysis are based on hourly recorded value, Mean values and frequency distributions are used for the interpretation. Furthermore, the characteristics and trends of the indices under different weather conditions were examined and discussed.

Results

The examination figures out that the air pollutions indices at all stations show similar patterns in the period between January 2001 and December 2002. Neither the LQI, nor the TLQ shows an annual variation. Existing variations are mainly controlled by the general weather situation and the air temperature. High values of the indices appear at extremely high or low mean daily air temperature. The absolute value of the air pollution index is determined by local pollution factors.

Outlook and Recommendations

Both indices are well suitable to evaluate the air quality and to assess the effects of state-aided measures for air pollutant control. Therefore, the indices TLQ and LQI should be published as an additional information in the world wide web.     

Pharmazeutisch aktive Substanzen in kleinen Fließgewässern

Background

Current hydrological research is increasingly focusing on pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs). Concerning the issue of quality of drinking water, this problem has also become the focus of public interest. However, in spire of the fact that the fate of chemicals in surface waters has been assessed in great detail, the influence of groundwater-exchange is yet only little known.

Goal

This study gives emphasis to the question of how transport and degradation of PhACs interact with the exchange of surface water with groundwater. Special interest is given to alternating groundwater regimes.

Methods

Based on a small stream system in the north of Berlin, Germany, a one-dimensional compartment-model was established using differential mass-balance. The stream which, at its mouth, discharges 0.3 m³ s^?1 is already well investigated and thus provides a good empirical data basis. The processes taken into account by the model were ‘exchange of surface-water with groundwater’, ‘decomposition’ as well as ‘transport’ of PhACs. Calculations were performed using the commonly used analgesic Diclofenac as an example and defining 81 scenarios by different groundwater regimes. Hasse Diagramm Technique was used to compare the scenarios.

Results

All scenarios show a big influence of groundwater-exchange to the fate and concentration of PhACs in surface waters. In the case of the modelled stream system, dilution by groundwater was more responsible for a decrease in concentration than degradation was. Furthermore, on the background of a standard scenario, the loss due to groundwater by 5.4 percent was in the same magnitude as the loss due to decomposition (9.7 percent). A crucial difference between punctual versus linear afflux of groundwater has not been observed.

Discussion

The alteration of discharge resulted in a big influence of the case differentiation between ‘constant velocity’ and ‘constant cross-section’. Furthermore, the model was based on the assumption that groundwater was unloaded with PhACs or diluted very well in comparison to the stream. In contrast, regarding measurements in the catchment, groundwater could even be a diffuse source of the contamination of the stream.

Conclusions

The fate of PhACs in our model is crucially driven by interactions with groundwater. Therefore, assessing the risk emanating from substances like Diclofenac, it is very important to regard their accessibility to decomposition as well as the morphology of the stream-system and its interactions with the groundwater.

Perspectives

In this model, the process of transport from the surface to groundwater back to the surface was dealt with insufficiently; in order to be able to observe fully developed interaction in a further step of modelling, a groundwater-transportmodel should be coupled completely with a surface-water-model.     

Die Lösung von Nutzungskonflikten aufgrund flächenhafter Bodenkontaminationen mit Hilfe Geografischer Informationssysteme und Mitteln der Geostatistik

Goal and Scope

By means of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and other geostatistical methods, the extensive heterogeneous data materials of large area soil contaminations are re-evaluated to eliminate exploitation conflicts and investment obstacles.

Methods

The mapping of relevant frame criteria generates the basis to solve the conflicts, such as types of exploitation of field areas, development plans, protected areas, flooded areas, etc. as well as their geo-referencing in the Geographical Information System. The critical examination of data age and quality as well as the geostatistical evaluation by means of semivariogram analysis and Kriging technique are essential prerequisites for the determination of areas related to utility and exceeding test values.

Results and Conclusions

As a result, one can modify the hazardous situation and can provide recommendations for an optimal elimination of hazards, mostly in the framework of scheduled measures in terms of town planning.

Outlook

On the basis of the results obtained, further exploitation or monitoring work can clearly be optimized.     

Limits of Concern: suggestions for the operationalisation of a concept to determine the relevance of adverse effects in the ERA of GMOs

Background

The European Food Safety Authority proposed a concept for the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants in the EU that is based on the definition of thresholds for the acceptability of potential adverse effects on the environment. This concept, called Limits of Concern (LoC), needs to be further refined to be implemented in the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified organisms.

Methods

We analyse and discuss how LoC can be defined for the environmental risk assessment for three different types of genetically modified plants. We outline protection goals relevant to the genetically modified plants in question and discuss existing concepts and suggestions for acceptability thresholds from the environmental risk assessment of different regulatory areas. We make specific recommendations for the setting and use of LoC for each type of genetically modified plant.

Results

The LoC concept can be suitably applied for the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified organisms, if the different protection goals in agro-environments are specifically considered. Not only biodiversity protection goals but also agricultural protection goals need to be addressed. The different ecosystem services provided by weeds inside and outside agricultural fields have to be considered for genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops. Exposure-based LoCs are suggested based on knowledge about dose–effect relationships between maize pollen and non-target Lepidoptera for insect-resistant maize. Due to the long-term nature of biological processes such as spread and establishment, LoCs for genetically modified oilseed rape should be defined for the presence of the genetically modified plant or its genetically modified traits in relevant protection goals.

Conclusions

When setting LoCs, the focus should be on protection goals which are possibly affected. Potential overlaps of the LoC concept with the ecosystem service concept have to be clarified to harmonise protection levels in the agro-environment for different stressors. If additional impacts on agro-biodiversity resulting from the cultivation of genetically modified plants are to be avoided, then high protection levels and low thresholds for acceptable effects (i.e. LoC) should be set.

     

Simple model of sludge thickening process in secondary settlers

In wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), a secondary settler acts as a clarifier, sludge thickener, and sludge storage tank during peak flows and therefore plays an important role in the performance of the activated sludge process. Sludge thickening occurs in the lower portions of secondary clarifiers during their operation. In this study, by detecting the hindered zone from the complete thickening process of activated sludge, a simple model for the sludge thickening velocity, u _s = aX ^b (a = 0.9925SSVI _3.5, b = 3.541ln(SSVI _3.5)+12.973), describing the potential and performance of activated sludge thickening in the hindered zone was developed. However, sludge thickening in the compression zone was not studied because sludge in the compression zone showed limited thickening. This empirical model was developed using batch settling data obtained from four WWTPs and validated using measured data from a fifth WWTP to better study sludge thickening. To explore different sludge settling and thickening mechanisms, the curves of sludge thickening and sludge settling were compared. Finally, it was found that several factors including temperature, stirring, initial depth, and polymer conditioning can lead to highly concentrated return sludge and biomass in a biologic reactor.     

Bestimmung des Ferntransports von persistenten organischen Spurenstoffen und der Umweltexposition mittels Modelluntersuchungen

Background, Aim and Scope

Many environmental pollutants are slowly degrading (persistent) and very mobile. They are semivolatile, i.e. they are partitioned between the environmental media of soil, water and air, and undergo long-range transport. The combined action of climate and substance properties determines the distributions and fate of these substances, among them as the persistent organic pollutants (POPs), other pesticides and industrial chemicals.

Main Features

Multicompartment chemistry-transport models are under development in order to study environmental exposure models.

Results

The investigation of transport and fate of some POPs on the global scale has emphasized the significance of historically explicit and geo-referenced simulations for substance distributions, persistence and long-range transport potential. Apart from the substance properties, it is the regional climate which is most important. This was illustrated by studies into the regional cycling of DDT and γ-HCH in selected tropical and extra-tropical regions.

Discussion

The isolation of individual steps of subsequent cycles of emission, transport and deposition (a so-called grasshopper effect) in model experiments shows the potential to elucidate the complex superposition of substance properties and environmental conditions, variable in time and space.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the grasshopper effect enhances the long-range transport potential, but is not required to explain an accumulation in polar regions (at least for γ-HCH).

Perspectives

A number of relevant scientific questions should be addressed by exposure modelling.     

Elbehochwasser 2002 — Ein Rückblick

Objective

Flood sediments were investigated due to the extreme flood situation around Dresden in August 2002

Method

The samples have been analyzed by screening inorganic and organic pollutants.

Results

It was observed that As, Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, B and other heavy metals as well as DDT, PCB and Benzo [a] pyren were significantly enriched.

Conclusion

Depending on geogenic and anthropogenic impacts, the spatial distribution of these contaminants was different. Organic compounds were dislocated down stream from Czech Republic along the Elbe River. Because of the old ore mining, samples near the Mulde and Wei\eritz Rivers showed high metal pollution.

Perspective

More detailed and systematic investigations should be undertaken in the Elbe and Mulde river systems.     

Abschätzung des umweltchemischen und ökotoxikologischen Verhaltens von Stoffen durch computergestützte Analyse von Struktur und Verhalten sowie von Struktur und Wirkung

Risk assessment of chemicals requires comprehensive data material, which often is not available. To provide substitutes for the lacking experimental ecotoxicological and physico-chemical data, a software-system (SAR-System) has been developed comprising more than 90 estimation models for relevant endpoints. The approach is based on quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Two major aspects characterize the SAR-System:

1. The implemented models were tested for their validity and application range.
2. The QSARs are accessible by a menu-driven programme package.

The following endpoints are included: Thysico-Chemical Data: 1-Octanol/water-partition-coefficient log P_ow, vapour pressure, water solubility, pK_a-value, boiling point Biological Data: Toxicity towards fish, daphnia, tetrahymenae, algae, bacteria and mammals, mutagenicity. Distribution: soil sorption, bioconcentration, Henry-Constant, Mackay (Level I). Degradation: photodegradation, biodegradability.     

Gravity currents with double stratification: a numerical and analytical investigation

We consider high-Reynolds-number Boussinesq gravity current and intrusion systems in which both the ambient and the propagating “current” are linearly stratified. The main focus is on a current of fixed volume released from a rectangular lock; the height ratio of the fluids $H$ , the stratification parameter of the ambient $S$ , and the internal stratification parameter of the current, $\sigma $ , are quite general. We perform two-dimensional Navier–Stokes simulation and compare the results with those of a previously-published one-layer shallow-water model. The results provide insights into the behavior of the system and enhance the confidence in the approximate model while also revealing its limitations. The qualitative predictions of the model are confirmed, in particular: (1) there is an initial “slumping” stage of propagation with constant speed $u_N$ , after which $u_N$ decays with time; (2) for fixed $H$ and $S$ , the increase of $\sigma $ causes a slower propagation of the current; (3) for some combinations of the parameters $H,S, \sigma $ the fluid released from the lock lacks initially (or runs out quickly of) buoyancy “driving power” in the horizontal direction, and does not propagate like a gravity current. There is also a fair quantitative agreement between the predictions of the model and the simulations concerning the spread of the current.     

Mikrobiologisch-ökotoxikologische Bodenuntersuchungen von zwei im Pflanzenschutz eingesetzten Öl-Präparaten

Goal and Scope

Since many years mineral and plant oils have been applied with relatively high doses to control noxious insects in sevral agricultural and horticultural crops. In addition they have also been used with low doses as adjuvants (additives) together with herbicides to improve their efficacy. Their ecotoxicological effets on soil microorganisms as an important part of the soil fertility, however, have been insufficiently investigated.

Methods

Under laboratory conditions two agricultural soils were treated with a rapeseed oil and a paraffin oil as well as in some cases with biocidal reference compounds (e.g. dinitrophenol herbicides). The applied dosage were related to the concentrations in soil reached after simulated penetration of practical field amounts into upper soil layers. In some cases green manuring was simulated by adding lucerne meal to the soil. During incubation for several weeks biomass-related microbial activities (dehydrogenase activity, substrate-induced short-term respiration) as well as the mineralization of carbon and nitrogen (including nitrification) were measured. In addition some combinations of these activities were investigated.

Results and Conclusion

As compared to ‘normal’ pesticides both oil products differed in their effects on soil microorganisms. Those effects typical for strongly biocidal compounds including plant protection products, namely a dose-related inhibition of microbial biomass and stimulated mineralization (especially of nitrogen) failed with the tested oily compounds. Depending on the high input of organic carbon by these oils and their rapid decomposition a dose-dependent increase of biomass-related parameters and of the carbon mineralization occurred especially with the high doses, whereas the nitrogen mineralization was reduced or even the available nitrate content was nearly eliminated for some time by microbiological immobilization. In comparison with the reference products the two oil preparations caused only little microbiological-ecotoxicological impacts on the soil and even some stimulations of important microbial soil parameters when tested with the extended test system (including the dosages used).

Recommendation and Perspective

As a result of these investigations and of the existing literature we recommend an extension of the test spectrum for those formulated preparations and adjuvants which should be applied at high dosages or if they contain higher amounts of well decomposable organic substances. This is necessary to distinguish dose-related enhanced activities induced by biocidal effects and the subsequent mineralization of this death material (=indirect effects) from ‘real’ stimulations directly produced by the substrate.     

Investigating the complex relationship between in situ Southern Ocean pCO_{2} and its ocean physics and biogeochemical drivers using a nonparametric regression approach

The objective in this paper is to investigate the use of a non-parametric approach to model the relationship between oceanic carbon dioxide \((pCO_2)\) and a range of ocean physics and biogeochemical in situ variables in the Southern Ocean, which influence its in situ variability. The need for this stems from the need to obtain reliable estimates of carbon dioxide concentrations in the Southern Ocean which plays an important role in the global carbon flux cycle. The main challenge involved in this objective is the spatial limitation and seasonal bias of the in situ data. Moreover, studies have also reported that the relationship between \(pCO_2\) and its drivers is complex. As such, in this paper, we use the non-parametric kernel regression approach since it is able to accurately capture the complex relationships between the response and predictor variables. In this analysis we use the in situ data obtained from the SANAE49 return leg journey between Antarctic to Cape Town. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this data set has been subjected to such analysis. The model variants were developed on a training data subset, and the ‘goodness’ of the models were assessed on an “unseen” test data subset. Results indicate that the nonparametric approach consistently captures the relationship more accurately in terms of mean square error, root mean square error and mean absolute error, over a standard parametric approach (multiple linear regression). These results provide a platform for using the developed nonparametric regression model based on in situ measurements to predict \(pCO_2\) for a larger spatial region in the Southern Ocean based on satellite biogeochemical measurements of predictor variables, given that satellites do not measure \(pCO_2\) .