Risk taking during parental care: a test of three hypotheses applied to the pied flycatcher

According to life-history theory, there will often be a conflict between investment in current versus future reproduction. If a predator appears during breeding, parents must make a compromise between ensuring the growth and survival of offspring (nest defence, feeding and brooding of young), and reducing the risk of predation to ensure their own survival. We model three hypotheses for the outcome of this conflict which are particularly relevant for altricial birds. They are not mutually exclusive, but focus on different costs and benefits. (1) Parental investment is determined by the parents’ own risk of predation. This hypothesis predicts that a lone parent should take smaller risks than a parent that has a mate. (2) Parental investment is related to the reproductive value of the offspring: Parents are predicted to take greater risks for larger broods, larger-sized or older offspring. (3) Finally, we present the new hypothesis that parental investment is related to the harm that offspring would suffer during a period of no parental care (incubation, brooding, feeding). This hypothesis predicts that parents should take greater risks for younger offspring, or for offspring in poorer condition, because the marginal benefit of parental care is largest in such cases. Hence, one may also expect that lone parents should take greater risks than two parents because their offspring are more in need of care. We tested these hypotheses on the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) by presenting a stuffed predator of the parents (a sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus) close to the nest when parents were feeding the young. Risk taking was measured as the time that elapsed until the first visit to the nest. Most support was found for the ‘‘harm to offspring’’ hypothesis. Previous studies have usually measured the intensity of nest defence against typical nest predators, and have found evidence for the ‘‘reproductive value of offspring’’ hypothesis. However, our model predicts that the importance of the reproductive value of the offspring should decrease relative to the harm that offspring would suffer if they were not cared for when the predator type changes from a nest predator to a predator of adults, and when conditions for breeding turn from good to bad. Received: 13 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 March 1996     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

Nest separation and the dynamics of the Gestalt odor in the polydomous ant Cataglyphis iberica (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

In the polydomous ant species Cataglyphis iberica, nests belonging to the same colony are completely separated during hibernation. In order to examine whether this separation induces changes both in the hydrocarbon profile and in recognition ability between adult nestmates, we separated groups of workers for several months under two different conditions: at hibernation temperature and at room temperature. At room temperature, recognition remained unchanged but separation led to longer mutual antennations relative to non-separated controls. When half of a colony was placed under hibernation conditions, antennal interactions also increased in duration and a few aggressive interactions emerged between separated ants. This aggressiveness never reached the intercolonial level observed in this species. In both cases, the hydrocarbon profiles showed differences between individuals after separation while remaining homogeneous within each nest. This chemical modification may induce the longer antennations observed. After separated groups were reunited, individuals recovered their previous antennation pattern and a convergence in hydrocarbon profiles was again observed. These concurrent observations suggest that hydrocarbons are transferred between nestmates. In C. iberica, the formation of the colonial odor seems to follow the “Gestalt” model which allows all satellite nests of a colony to have a common colonial odor. In the field, temporary nest isolation during hibernation may induce divergence between satellites. The role of adult transport in connecting nests during the active season to obtain an efficient Gestalt odor is discussed. Received: 16 June 1997 / Accepted after revision: 25 October 1997     

Semiparametric space–time survival modeling of chronic wasting disease in deer

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric survival model to investigate the pattern of spatial and temporal variation in disease prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild deer in Wisconsin over the years 2002 and 2006. The semiparametric survival model we suggested allows to build a more flexible model than the parametric model with fewer parametric assumptions by modeling the baseline hazard using a Gamma process prior. Based on the proposed model, we investigate the geographical distribution of CWD, and assess the effect of sex on disease prevalence. We use a Bayesian hierarchical framework where latent parameters capture temporal and spatial trends in disease incidence, incorporating sex and spatially correlated random effects. We also propose bivariate baseline hazard which change over age and time simultaneously to adopt different effects of age and time on the baseline hazard. Inference is carried out by using MCMC simulation techniques in a fully Bayesian framework. Our results suggest that disease has been spreaded mainly in the disease eradication zone and male deer show a significantly higher infection probability than female deer.     

Bayesian Joint Estimation of Binary Outcome and Time-to-event Data: Effects of Leaf Quality on Pupal Survival and Time-to-Emergence in the Winter Moth

Plant–herbivore interactions are complex and affect herbivore fitness components and life history traits in many different ways. In this paper, we present results from an experiment studying the effects of leaf quality on pupal survival and duration of pupation (as measured by time-to-emergence) in the winter moth. Because only surviving pupae are at risk of emerging, analysis of time-to-emergence should exclude the dead pupae. However, due to right censoring, the survival status could not be determined for each individual. This failure to determine the group of moths at risk of emerging a priori motivated the development of a joint model of both survival probability and time-to-emergence. We formulate the model in a Bayesian framework and apply Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) to obtain posterior distributions. Time-to-emergence is modeled by a Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model where only the surviving pupae are at risk of emergence. Probability of pupal survival was modeled by a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM). The censored individuals were included in the analysis as a missing value in the GLMM. The GLMM then generated prior distributions of survival probabilties—and thus of the probability of being at risk of emergence—for these 19 individuals, conditional on the model parameters. The CPH model was formulated as a count process and the binary frailty was incorporated as a zero-inflated Poisson model. Zeros in this model represent the non-survivors. Leaf quality did not appear to influence time-to-emergence. Pupal survival was affected in a complex and unexpected way showing opposite effects in males and females. We also explored the robustness of our model against increased levels of censoring. While the degree of censoring was low in our study (< 1%), we artificially increased it to 67%. Although further study is required to study the generality of these results in a theoretical framework, our explorations suggest that the newly proposed technique may be widely applicable in a variety of situations where the identification of the at risk population cannot be done in a straightforward way. Received: January 2005 / Revised: June 2005     

Effects of temperature variation on TSD in turtle (C. picta) populations

We formulate a two-sex model of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) for a freshwater turtle (C. picta) population. The aim is to understand how environmental temperature variations and nest heat conduction properties affect the long term dynamics of the population. This is a key to understanding how global temperature changes may affect their survival. With stochastic inputs of ambient temperature and solar radiation, the model uses the heat equation to determine the temperature in the egg layer in the nest; in turn, this determines the sex ratio in the egg clutch using a variable degree-day model. Finally, a nonlinear Leslie type, stage-based, two-sex model, is used to determine the long term male and female populations. A two-sex model is required because of different development rates for males and females. The model is flexible enough to enable other researchers to examine the effects of temperature variation variations on other species with TSD, e.g., crocodilians, reptilians, as well as other turtle species. It can be adapted to study effects of nest location, soil type, rain events, different incubation periods, and density effects, for example, the dependence of the mating function on the ratio of males to females and each’s contribution to the sex of hatchlings. Modifications can be easily made to fit a specific life history traits. The model is a beginning step in understanding the long term, high fitness shown by many reptile species with TSD, and it may suggest to experimentalists what data may be relevant to these issues; it can also be useful to wildlife managers in developing strategies for intervention if needed. Among the principal findings are that temperature variability and detailed nest heat conduction properties may buffer projected negative effects on a population.     

Brood temperature, task division and colony survival in honeybees: A model

One of the mechanisms by which honeybees regulate division of labour among their colony members is age polyethism. Here the younger bees perform in-hive tasks such as heating and the older ones carry out tasks outside the hive such as foraging. Recently it has been shown that the higher developmental temperatures of the brood, which occur in the centre of the brood nest, reduce the age at which individuals start to forage once they are adult. It is unknown whether this effect has an impact on the survival of the colony. The aim of this paper is to study the consequences of the temperature gradient on the colony survival in a model on the basis of empirical data.We created a deterministic simulation of a honeybee colony (Apis mellifera) which we tuned to our empirical data. In the model in-hive bees regulate the temperature of the brood nest by their heating activities. These temperatures determine the age of first foraging in the newly emerging bees and thus the number of in-hive bees present in the colony. The results of the model show that variation in the onset of foraging due to the different developmental temperatures has little impact on the population dynamics and on the absolute number of bees heating the nest unless we increase this effect by several times to unrealistic values, where individuals start foraging up to 10 days earlier or later. Rather than on variation in the onset of foraging due to the temperature gradient it appears that the survival of the colony depends on a minimal number of bees available for heating at the beginning of the simulation.     

Bayesian Ecological Regression with Latent Factors: Atmospheric Pollutants Emissions and Mortality for Lung Cancer

In this work we propose a Bayesian ecological analysis in which a latent variable summarizes data on emissions of atmospheric pollutants. We specified a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatially structured and unstructured random terms with a nested latent factor model. This can be considered a combination of the convolution spatial model of Besag et al. (1991) and an ecological regression analysis in which a latent variable plays the role of the covariate. The unified approach allows to proper account for the uncertainty in the latent score estimation in the regression analysis. The Bayesian Latent Factor model is used to summarize the information on environmental pressure derived from three stressors: Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen Oxides and Inhalable Particles. We found evidence of positive correlation between Lung cancer mortality and environmental pressure indicators, in males, Tuscany (Italy), 1995–1999. Environmental pressure seems to be restricted to fourteen municipalities (top 5% of the Latent Factor distribution). The model identified two areas with high point source emissions.     

Direct Effects of Cattle on Grassland Birds in Canada

Effects of grazing on grassland birds are generally thought to be indirect, through alteration of vegetation structure; however, livestock can also affect nest survival directly through trampling and other disturbances (e.g., livestock‐induced abandonment). We extracted data on nest fates from 18 grazing studies conducted in Canada. We used these data to assess rates of nest destruction by cattle among 9 ecoregions and between seasonal and rotational grazing systems. Overall, few nests were destroyed by cattle (average 1.5% of 9132 nests). Nest destruction was positively correlated with grazing pressure (i.e., stocking rate or grazing intensity), but nest survival was higher in more heavily grazed areas for some species. Because rates of destruction of grassland bird nests by cattle are low in Canada, management efforts to reduce such destruction may not be of ecological or economic value in Canada. Efectos Directos del Ganado sobre las Aves de Pastizales en Canadá     

Kin discriminators in the eusocial sweat bee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lasioglossum malachurum</Emphasis>: the reliability of cuticular and Dufour’s gland odours

The ability to discriminate degrees of relatedness may be expected to evolve if it allows unreciprocated altruism to be preferentially directed towards kin (Hamilton in J Theor Biol 7:1–16, 1964). We explored the possibility of kin recognition in the primitively eusocial halictid bee Lasioglossum malachurum by investigating the reliability of worker odour cues that can be perceived by workers to act as indicators of either nest membership or kinship. Cuticular and Dufour’s gland compounds varied significantly among colonies of L. malachurum, providing the potential for nestmate discrimination. A significant, though weak, negative correlation between chemical distance and genetic relatedness (r = −0.055, p < 0.001) suggests a genetic component to variation in cuticular bouquet, but odour cues were not informative enough to discriminate between different degrees of relatedness within nests. This pattern of variation was similar for Dufour’s gland bouquets. The presence of unrelated individuals within nests that are not chemically different from their nestmates suggests that the discrimination system of L. malachurum is prone to acceptance errors. Compounds produced by colony members are likely combined to generate a gestalt colony chemical signature such that all nestmates have a similar smell. The correlation between odour cues and nest membership was greater for perceived compounds than for non-perceived compounds, suggesting that variability in perceived compounds is a result of positive selection for nestmate recognition despite potentially stabilising selection to reduce variability in odour differences and thereby to reduce costs derived from excessive intracolony nepotistic behaviour.     

From interference to predation: type and effects of direct interspecific interactions of small mammals

Indirect exploitative competition, direct interference and predation are important interactions affecting species coexistence. These interaction types may overlap and vary with the season and life-history state of individuals. We studied effects of competition and potential nest predation by common shrews (Sorex araneus) on lactating bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in two seasons. The species coexist and may interact aggressively. Additionally, shrews can prey on nestling voles. We studied bank vole mothers’ spatial and temporal adaptations to shrew presence during summer and autumn. Further, we focused on fitness costs, e.g. decreased offspring survival, which bank voles may experience in the presence of shrews. In summer, interference with shrews decreased the voles’ home ranges and they spent more time outside the nest, but there were no effects on offspring survival. In autumn, we found decreased offspring survival in enclosures with shrews, potentially due to nest predation by shrews or by increased competition between species. Our results indicate a shift between interaction types depending on seasonal constraints. In summer, voles and shrews seem to interact mainly by interference, whereas resource competition and/or nest predation by shrews gain importance in autumn. Different food availability, changing environmental conditions and the energetic constraints in voles and shrews later in the year may be the reasons for the varying combinations of interaction types and their increasing effects on the inclusive fitness of bank voles. Our study provides evidence for the need of studies combining life history with behavioural measurements and seasonal constraints.     

Chemical ecology involved in invasion success of the cuckoo bumblebee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Psithyrus vestalis</Emphasis> and in survival of workers of its host <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bombus terrestris</Emphasis>

In bumblebees all species of the subgenus Psithyrus are social parasites in the nests of their Bombus hosts. In the bumblebee B. terrestris we investigated how colony size influences survival rates of nest entering females of the social parasite Psithyrus vestalis. Furthermore, we studied whether the host worker’s dominance status and age are reflected in its individual scent and whether Psithyrus females use volatiles to selectively kill host workers. The survival rate of Psithyrus vestalis females drops from 100%, when entering colonies with five workers, to 0% for colonies containing 50 host workers. Older host workers, born before the nest invasion, were selectively killed when Psithyrus females entered the nest. In contrast, all workers born after the nest invasion survived. The host workers’ dominance status and age are reflected by their individual odours: newly emerged workers produced a significantly lower total amount of secretions than 4-day-old workers. In chemical analyses of female groups we identified saturated and unsaturated hydrocarbons, aldehydes, and unsaturated wax-type esters of fatty acids. In a discriminant function analysis different worker groups were mainly separated by their bouquets of hydrocarbons. Killed workers release significantly more scent and of a different chemical composition, than survivors. Survivors alter scent production and increase it beyond the level of the killed workers within 1 day of the invasion. The Psithyrus female clearly maintains reproductive dominance utilizing these differences in the odour bouquets as criteria for killing workers that compete for reproduction.     

Evolution of within-colony distribution patterns of birds in response to habitat structure

It has long been suggested that habitat structure affects how colonial birds are distributed within their nesting aggregations, but this hypothesis has never been formally tested. The aim of this study was to test for a correlated evolution between habitat heterogeneity and within-colony distributions of Ciconiiformes by using Pagel’s general method of comparative analysis for discrete variables. The analysis indicated that central-periphery gradients of distribution (high-quality individuals occupying central nesting locations) prevail in species breeding in homogeneous habitats. These were mainly ground-nesting larids and spheniscids, where clear central-periphery patterns were recorded in ca. 80 % of the taxa. Since homogeneous habitats provide little variation in the physical quality of nest sites, central nesting locations should be largely preferred because they give better protection against predators by means of more efficient predator detection and deterrence. By contrast, central-periphery gradients tended to be disrupted in heterogeneous habitats, where 75 % of colonial Ciconiiform species showed uniform patterns of distribution. Under this model of distribution, edge nest sites of high physical quality confer higher fitness benefits in comparison to low-quality central sites, and thus, high-quality pairs are likely to choose nest sites irrespectively of their within-colony location. Breeding in homogeneous habitats and uniform distribution patterns were identified as probable ancestral states in Ciconiiformes, but there was a significant transition rate from uniform to central-periphery distributions in species occupying homogeneous habitats.     

Solitary nesting and reproductive success in the paper wasp Polistes aurifer

Female Polistes paper wasps are capable of independent nesting, yet many populations demonstrate a mixture of solitary and cooperative nest foundation. Previous studies of Polistes have found survival and/or productivity advantages of cooperative nest foundation compared to solitary nesting, and reproductive skew models have been designed to predict the dynamics of such flexible cooperation. In this paper, we examine the success of different nesting strategies in a previously unstudied population of Polistes aurifer in southern California. The colony cycle of this population is less synchronous than that of other temperate species, and the frequency of solitary nesting averages 86.2%. Our data suggest that this low rate of cooperative nest founding is adaptive, as demonstrated by the lack of survival or productivity advantages for cooperative foundress associations. Due to foundress turnover and nest foundation later in the season, many nests produce only one set of offspring. This results in a loss of the eusocial nature of some nests in the population. Data from a small sample of multifoundress nests show significant positive reproductive skew, despite concession model predictions that skew should be low in populations with low ecological constraints on independent nesting. This lack of support for the concessions skew model reflects a diminished incentive for cooperation.Communicated by L. Keller     

Use of fecundity measured directly throughout the breeding season to test a source-sink demographic model

Populations of landbirds (bird species that occupy terrestrial habitats for most of their life cycle) are declining throughout North America (north of Mexico) and Europe, yet little is known about how demography is driving this trend. A recent model of 5 geographically separated populations of Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) that was based on within-season sampling of nest survival and fledgling success shows that all populations are sinks (annual reproduction is consistently less than annual adult mortality). I tested this indirect model by directly measuring fecundity (number of female fledglings/female) during the breeding season for 2 years in a Cerulean Warbler population occupying a mature forest in southwestern Michigan (U.S.A.) I determined territories of male birds on the basis of male plumage characters and phases of the nesting cycle (2007) and on uniquely color-banded males (2008). I transferred locations of identified males to topographic maps. I counted all fledglings in territories from May to July each year. The model I tested may apply only to single-brooded species; therefore, I searched the literature to estimate the percentage of single-brooded species in North America. The breeding season of Cerulean Warblers was short- nearly all nests were initiated from mid-May to late June. Nest predation and brood parasitism were primary and rare causes of nest failure, respectively. Significantly fewer Cerulean Warblers fledged from parasitized than from nonparasitized nests. Fledgling survival required to maintain the population size was well above previously published values for Neotropical migrants. Single-brooded species comprise 62% of North American breeding bird species for which the number of broods per year is known; I believe my results may apply to these species. The consistency between identification of populations as sources or sinks on the basis of either model estimates or direct measurements suggests that a demographic model relying on within-season sampling of fecundity is adequate to determine population status of single-brooded avian populations. In addition, on the basis of results of previous studies, annual adult survival rate of the Cerulean Warbler is typical of parulid warblers that are not declining. Thus, low fecundity, here determined with different quantitative methods, can drive status of landbird species with high-observed survival.     

Does egg colour affect predation rate on open passerine nests?

The breeding success of many passerines is strongly reduced by egg predation. The adaptive significance of egg crypsis in open nesters is often taken for granted, but visually searching predators may first detect the nest or adult bird and not the eggs. Götmark predicted that selection should favour egg crypsis in the absence of conspicuous nests, whereas birds with conspicuous nests should have non-cryptic eggs. I compared the effect of egg colour treatment (white, blue, brown-spotted) on nest survival (1) among species characterized by different egg coloration, nest size and nest placement, and (2) between relatively well and poorly concealed nests within species. I used artificial nests (n=1,296) and eggs mimicking (except in egg colour) those of the yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella), blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) and song thrush (Turdus philomelos). Concurrently, I monitored survival of real nests (n=1,106). Nest survival differed among species, increased with nest concealment and throughout the breeding season, but was not significantly related to egg colour in any species. Nevertheless, the data for the yellowhammer suggest a trend in survival rates across the colour treatments. Brown eggs survived better than white eggs by 11% and 4% in 2 years, but this study had insufficient power to detect effects of this size. The results thus suggest that egg coloration in the song thrush and blackcap (shrub nesters) may be a neutral trait with regard to nest predation, whereas egg crypsis may be an anti-predation feature for the yellowhammer (ground/near-ground nester). The role of predation in the evolution of eggshell colour may vary not only between cavity and open nesters, but also across nest sites within the latter group.     

Effects of helpers on breeder survival in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis)

Helpers can gain future indirect fitness benefits by increasing the survival of breeders that produce offspring related to the helper. Helping augments group size through the helper's presence and, in some cases, by increasing fledging success. Breeders may then experience enhanced survivorship because of the benefits of living in large groups. Helping may also reduce the workload of the breeder, which in turn may increase the likelihood that the breeder will survive to breed again. We used Cox's proportional hazards model to examine whether breeders' survival in two populations of the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) was enhanced when group size was increased in the presence of (1) the helper itself, or (2) "extra" fledglings (fledglings produced by the breeder because of helping behavior). We found that in the presence of helpers, the risk of a breeder dying declined by 21–42% for males and 0–14% for females. Our results suggest reduced breeder workload as one mechanism to explain reduced breeder mortality in the presence of helpers: breeders spent less time incubating and provisioning nestlings when assisted by helpers. The risk of a breeder dying declined by 16–42% in males and 26–43% in females in the presence of "extra" fledglings. We speculate on possible mechanisms by which fledglings might affect breeder survival. Our results support the hypothesis that helpers gain future indirect benefits by reducing breeder mortality. Electronic Publication     

Extended family structure in the ant Formica paralugubris: the role of the breeding system

In populations of various ant species, many queens reproduce in the same nest (polygyny), and colony boundaries appear to be absent with individuals able to move freely between nests (unicoloniality). Such societies depart strongly from a simple family structure and pose a potential challenge to kin selection theory, because high queen number coupled with unrestricted gene flow among nests should result in levels of relatedness among nestmates close to zero. This study investigated the breeding system and genetic structure of a highly polygynous and largely unicolonial population of the wood ant Formica paralugubris. A microsatellite analysis revealed that nestmate workers, reproductive queens and reproductive males (the queens' mates) are all equally related to each other, with relatedness estimates centring around 0.14. This suggests that most of the queens and males reproducing in the study population had mated within or close to their natal nest, and that the queens did not disperse far after mating. We developed a theoretical model to investigate how the breeding system affects the relatedness structure of polygynous colonies. By combining the model and our empirical data, it was estimated that about 99.8% of the reproducing queens and males originated from within the nest, or from a nearby nest. This high rate of local mating and the rarity of long-distance dispersal maintain significant relatedness among nestmates, and contrast with the common view that unicoloniality is coupled with unrestricted gene flow among nests. Received: 8 February 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 June 1999 / Accepted: 19 June 1999     

Nest concealment and parental behaviour interact in affecting nest survival in the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla): an experimental evaluation of the parental compensation hypothesis

Nest concealment varies strongly within populations of many species. Although some studies have revealed the beneficial effects of concealment in mitigating predation pressure on nests, other studies were unable to find similar effects. One potential reason for the mixed results is that parental behaviour may compensate for the effects of nest cover, and specifically designed experimental studies are needed to reveal this compensation. I studied the effects of concealment on the probability of nest survival in the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla), by experimentally manipulating the degree of nest-foliage cover. There was a significant effect of the treatment depending on nest type and the phase of nesting. Whereas there was no effect of concealment on nest survival in natural nests, there was a positive effect in real nests baited with plasticine clutches (i.e. without parental activity). Parents probably behaviourally compensated for poor concealment in natural nests (nest guarding, defence). In line with this, there was no effect of concealment on nest survival during incubation, whereas there was probably a positive effect in the nestling phase. Parents spent more time on the nest during incubation (80%) than during the care of nestlings (40%) and, consequently, had more opportunities to compensate for poor cover. In general, we cannot use single measures of behaviours or states (nest concealment) as an indication of predation risk because of the capacity for compensation in other behaviours.Communicated by C. Brown