Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Climatic mapping to identify high-risk areas for Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum leaf blight on eucalypts in mainland South East Asia and around the world

Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum is a pathogen on a wide range of hosts. It affects at least 20 species of eucalypts and is an important causal agent of leaf blight of Eucalyptus camaldulensis in central and southern Vietnam. Results from previous studies and observations of broadscale infection patterns in mainland South East Asia were used to derive simple rules (i.e. mean minimum temperature of coldest month > or =16 degrees C and mean annual precipitation > or =1400 mm) to identify locations which are likely to have a high risk of C. quinqueseptatum leaf blight (CqLB). Climatic mapping programs, which include interpolated climatic data estimated for numerous locations, were used to map these high risk areas in Africa, Australia and Latin America as well as in South East Asia. The predicted high-risk areas included several regions where CqLB has already been reported and the maps generated suggested other areas which may be at risk under present climatic conditions given the presence of C. quinqueseptatum and susceptible hosts. Some simple climate change scenarios were also used to suggest areas in mainland South East Asia which may become vulnerable to CqLB over the next 50 years. It is concluded that climatic mapping programs can assist the broadscale evaluation of risk of CqLB infections, although it is recognised that more detailed models and survey information are also needed.     

Input of trichloroacetic acid into the vegetation of various climate zones--measurements on several continents

Trichloroacetic acid (TCA, CCl(3)COOH) is a phytotoxic chemical. Although TCA salts and derivates were once used as herbicides to combat perennial grasses and weeds, they have since been banned because of their indiscriminate herbicidal effects on woody plant species. However, TCA can also be formed in the atmosphere. For instance, the high-volatile C(2)-chlorohydrocarbons tetrachloroethene (TECE, C(2)Cl(4)) and 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCE, CCl(3)CH(3)) can react under oxidative conditions in the atmosphere to form TCA and other substances. The ongoing industrialisation of Southeast Asia, South Africa and South America means that use of TECE as solvents in the metal and textile industries of these regions in the southern hemisphere can be expected to rise. The increasing emissions of this substance--together with the rise in the atmospheric oxidation potential caused by urban activities, slash and burn agriculture and forest fires in the southern hemisphere--could lead to a greater input/formation of TCA in the vegetation located in the lee of these emission sources. By means of biomonitoring studies, the input/formation of TCA in vegetation was detected at various locations in South America, North America, Africa, and Europe.     

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle

Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated approximately 6000 cal. yr ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 7500-3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions.     

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.     

Trichloroacetic acid in the vegetation of polluted and remote areas of both hemispheres—Part I. Its formation,uptake and geographical distribution

Trichloroacetic acid (TCA; CCl₃COOH) is a phytotoxic chemical. Although TCA salts and derivatives were once deployed as herbicides against perennial grasses and weeds, their use has since been banned because of their indiscriminate herbicidal effects on woody plant species. However, TCA can also be formed in the atmosphere. For instance, high-volatile C₂-chlorohydrocarbons tetrachloroethene (TECE, C₂Cl₄) and 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCE, CCl₃CH₃) can react to TCA and other substances under oxidative conditions here. Owing to further industrialisation of Southeast Asia, South Africa and South America, a rise can be expected in the use of TECE as solvents in the metal and textile industries of these regions in the southern hemisphere (SH). The increasing emissions of this substance—together with the rise in the atmospheric oxidation potential caused by urban activities, slash and burn agriculture and forest fires in the SH—will result in the increased input/formation of TCA in the vegetation located on the lee side of these emission sources. By means of biomonitoring studies, inputs/formation of TCA related to the climatic conditions were detected at various locations in South America, Africa, and Europe.     

Effect of climate change on air quality

Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM–CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1–10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM–CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by ±0.1–1 μg m^?3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.     

Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: a model study

A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe. The model system was able to resolve the climatology of precipitation and chemical properties observed in northern Europe during the 1980s, albeit with some underestimation of the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters and chemical components. The results point toward a substantial increase (30% or more) in nitrogen deposition over western Norway as a consequence of increasing precipitation but more moderate changes for other areas. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen will increase more than the deposition of reduced nitrogen. Over Sweden, oxidized nitrogen will increase only marginally and reduced nitrogen will decrease, although annual precipitation is expected to increase here as well. This is probably because more reduced nitrogen will be removed further west in Scandinavia because of the strong increase in precipitation along the Norwegian coast. The total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Norway is expected to increase from 96 Gg N y(-1) during the current climate to 107 Gg N y(-1) by 2100 due only to changes in climate. The corresponding values for Sweden are more modest, from 137 Gg N y(-1) to 139 Gg N y(-1).     

Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt

This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071–2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08–7.41 °C, 4.55–7.89 °C, and 3.88–7.23 °C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 °C (10 °C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 °C (1.35 °C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.

     

Historical record of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) in marine sediment cores from Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica

This paper describes the first results of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) in sediment cores of Admiralty Bay, Antarctica. These markers were used to assess the local input of anthropogenic materials (particulate and organic compounds) as a result of the influence of human occupation in a sub-Antarctic region and a possible long-range atmospheric transport of combustion products from sources in South America. The highest SCPs and PAHs concentrations were observed during the last 30 years, when three research stations were built in the area and industrial activities in South America increased. The concentrations of SCPs and PAHs were much lower than those of other regions in the northern hemisphere and other reported data for the southern hemisphere. The PAH isomer ratios showed that the major sources of PAHs are fossil fuels/petroleum, biomass combustion and sewage contribution generally close to the Brazilian scientific station.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

Water Planning and Hydro-Climatic Change in the Murray-Darling Basin,Australia

More than a third of humanity lives in regions with less than 1 million liters of fresh water per person per year. Population growth will increase water demand while climate change in arid and semi-arid areas may reduce water availability. The Murray-Darling Basin in Australia is a region where water reform and planning have been used to reduce consumptive extraction to better sustain river ecosystems under climate variability. Using actual data and previously published models that account for climate variability and climate change, the trade-off between water extractions and water essential to the long-term ecological function of river systems is analysed. The findings indicate that better water planning and a more complete understanding of the effects of irrigation on regional climate evapotranspiration could: (1) increase the overall benefits of consumptive and non-consumptive water use; (2) improve riparian environments under climate variability; and (3) be achieved with only small effects on the profits and gross value of food and fiber production.     

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis

Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.     

Soil sensitivity to acidification in Asia: status and prospects

Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0-50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification-related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification.     

Preliminary field study of hepatic porphyrin profiles of Astyanax fasciatus (Teleostei, Characiformes) to define anthropogenic pollution

The implementation of eco-toxicological assessment in South America is presently limited due to significant scientific information gaps concerning native species and their potential use as biomarkers. Recently, a common southern hemisphere fish species, Astyanax fasciatus, has been pointed out as a potential bio-indicator to anthropogenic pollution. This is a small, abundant, Neotropical characid, which is widely distributed from Central America south, to the Rio de la Plata Basin of western Uruguay. Our study found a statistically significant increase of coproporphyrin, uroporphyrin and protoporphyrin concentrations in hepatic tissues of A. fasciatus collected from a stream segment with high anthropogenic disturbance (due mainly to agricultural derivatives and motor vehicle transportation activities). Although the area studied showed differences in up and downstream limno-chemical parameters, these differences were not related to the increase of hepatic porphyrin concentrations. Based on the results of our study, we conclude that A. fasciatus is a good bio-indicator of exposure to environmental contaminants, and we propose that this abundant fish species be considered as a sentinel organism for monitoring potential disturbances to freshwater ecosystems.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

A 700-year record of mercury in avian eggshells of Guangjin Island, South China Sea

Ancient eggshells over the past 700 years were extracted from an ornithogenic sediment profile on Guangjin Island, South China Sea. Based on SEM and nitrogen isotope analyses, we determined that neither post-depositional processes nor seabirds’ dietary changes had a large influence on eggshell Hg levels. The historical change of Hg in these eggshells was reconstructed. Eggshell Hg was a marker for past Hg deposition in marine environment. The eggshell Hg showed three small peaks at around 1300AD, 1600 AD and 1700-1750AD and rapid increase since 1800 AD. Before 1970 AD the Hg deposition in the Xisha area had global distribution characteristics, with increased Hg emissions due to global anthropogenic activities in industrial times. However, after 1970 AD, a further sharp increase up to present day occurred, implying that the Hg production center had gradually shifted from Europe and America to Asia.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

Intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia and its consequences

The intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia is a crucial issue for air quality concerns in countries downwind of the significant emissions and concentrations of pollutants occurring in this important region of the world. Since the lifetimes of some important pollutants are long enough to be transported over long distance in the troposphere, regional control strategies for air pollution in downwind countries might be ineffective without considering the effects of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia. Field campaigns provide strong evidence for the intercontinental transport of Asian pollutants. They, together with ground-based observations and model simulations, show that the air quality over parts of North America is being affected by the pollutants transported from Asia. This paper examines the current understanding of the intercontinental transport of gases and aerosols from Asia and resulting effects on air quality, and on the regional and global climate system.