Economic aspects of global change impacts and response strategies in the coastal zone of The Netherlands

Economic aspects of possible land use strategies and protection measures in coastal zones as a response to global environmental change are examined. First, some key elements are mentioned that are of critical importance for water and land management in coastal zones. Next, various socio-economic repercussions are discussed. In this context, research needs will be addressed. Subsequently, these issues are considered for the case of The Netherlands. It is concluded that integrated modelling and analysis is just starting and needs to receive more attention in order to study long run economic costs, benefits and changes in coastal zones.     

基于密切值法的节能减排评价研究

节能减排是我国应对资源紧缺、减轻环境压力、实现经济可持续发展的必然选择。关于节能减排考核体系的研究,目前多限于广泛的定性论述,定量研究成果尚不多见。为了实现节能减排这一根本目的,需要确立能反映环境、经济、社会发展协调程度的指标体系和评价方法,为我国的发展决策提供科学依据。在遵循构建原则和按照构建方法思路基础上,从资源、环境、管理和经济等4个控制层面构建节能减排的综合评价指标体系。密切值法是多目标决策的一种优选方法,作为一种新的尝试,利用该方法建立起节能减排评价模型。详细阐述了密切值法在节能减排评价中的原理、方法与步骤,并以我国2001—2008年的节能减排情况为例说明了模型的具体应用,评价结果较好地体现了我国节能减排的现状与不足,为今后节能减排工作提供了科学依据。实例应用表明,建立的评价指标体系是可行的和可操作的,该评价模型不需要确定各种主观参量或函数,评价结果客观、可靠,是开展节能减排综合评价的一种简单而有效的方法。     

Ecosystem service value losses from coastal erosion in Europe: historical trends and future projections

Coastal zones experience increased rates of coastal erosion, due to rising sea levels, increased storm surge frequencies, reduced sediment delivery and anthropogenic transformations. Yet, coastal zones host ecosystems that provide associated services which, therefore, may be lost due to coastal erosion. In this paper we assess to what extent past and future coastal erosion patterns lead to losses in land cover types and associated ecosystem service values. Hence, historical (based on CORINE land cover information) and projected (based on Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment - DIVA - simulations) coastal erosion patterns are used in combination with a benefits transfer approach. DIVA projections are based on regionalized IPCC scenarios. Relative to the period 1975–2050, a case study is provided for selected European coastal country member states. For historical (1975–2006) coastal erosion trends, we observe territory losses in coastal agricultural, water body and forest & semi-natural areas – total coastal erosion equaling over 4,500 km². Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease from about €22.3 billion per year in 1975 to about €21.6 billion per year in 2006. For future (2006–2050) coastal erosion projections, total territory losses equal between ~3,700 km² and ~5,800 km² – coastal wetland areas being affected most severely. Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease to between €20.1 and €19.4 billion per year by 2050. Hence, we argue that the response strategy of EU member states to deal with coastal erosion and climate change impacts should be based on the economic as well as the ecological importance of their coastal zones.     

Anthropogenic impacts on sedimentation in Jiaozhou Bay,China

In the last 150 years, China transformed its economy from a feudal system (pre-1911) to a modern market economy. During this time, policy-driven rapid development created a series of ecological and environmental problems, especially in the coastal economic regions. Although the synthetic effects are certainly identifiable, the specific effects of different policies in different developing periods have been difficult to disentangle. Here we show that the footprints of Chinese policies in the last 150 years, and their different influences on coastal environments, were archived in the temporal dynamics of sedimentation in Jiaozhou Bay. Before 1935, natural processes predominantly controlled the sedimentation in Jiaozhou Bay. After the introduction of modern economic policies in 1935, the sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) was overwhelmingly driven by the sea areas of the bay as a result of policy-driven anthropogenic activities (i.e. saltern development, mariculture, and land reclamation). An increasing MAR at the early stage of each policy, followed by a decrease at the late stage was observed. Land reclamation in the 1990s led to a much quicker increase of MAR than the earlier saltern development. Our results demonstrated that marine exploitation, instead of natural processes, are currently regulating the ecological environments of Chinese bays.     

An implicit wetting–drying algorithm for the discontinuous Galerkin method: application to the Tonle Sap,Mekong River Basin

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The accurate simulation of wetting–drying processes in floodplains and coastal zones is a challenge for hydrodynamic modelling, especially for long time...     

ToSIA—A tool for sustainability impact assessment of forest-wood-chains

Within the forest sector, the sustainability concept has evolved from a narrow focus on sustainable wood production to a much broader evaluation of environmental, social, and economic sustainability for whole value chains. A new software tool - ToSIA - has been developed for assessing sustainability impacts of Forest-Wood-Chains (FWCs). In the approach, FWCs are defined as chains of production processes (e.g. harvesting-transport-industrial processing), which are linked with products (e.g. a timber frame house). Sustainability is determined by analysing environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators for all the production processes along the FWC. The tool calculates sustainability values as products of the relative indicator values (i.e. indicator value expressed per unit of material flow) multiplied with the material flow entering the process. Calculated sustainability values are then aggregated for the segments of the FWC or for the complete chain. The sustainability impact assessment requires carefully specified system boundaries. ToSIA uses a data-oriented approach that is very flexible in the focus of the analysis and the selection of indicators of sustainability. An example of alternative Norway spruce management systems in Southern Germany and their effects on six sustainability indicators is presented. The less intensive management system with natural regeneration and motor-manual harvesting shows higher carbon storage and slightly less energy use. It creates more employment and higher labour costs, but the average rate of accidents is also higher. ToSIA offers a transparent and consistent methodological framework to assess sustainability impacts in the forest-based sector as affected, e.g. by changes in policies, market conditions, or technology. The paper discusses strengths and limitations of the approach and provides an outlook on further development perspectives of the methodology.     

An analysis of the developmental differences in Borneo’s Southeastern and Northwestern Coastal Zones

In this research, Landsat TM images were used to extract the land use information for Borneo’s coastal zones (0 to 35 km) during three time periods (1990, 2000, and 2010). Then, in combination with the DEM and shoreline types, the developmental differences under the influences of the geographical boundaries of the Borneo coastal zones were examined from such perspectives as the spatial distribution characteristics of the land development, sea-land gradient variation characteristics, and comparative analyses of the different regions. The results indicated that the geographic boundaries, as well as the different countries, had great influences on the development of the coastal zones. The regions with the most active development in Borneo’s coastal zones were mainly located in the estuary bay, onshore with land on both sides, and the near-shore alluvial plain with DEM?<?50 m. The northwestern coast zone showed relatively flat topography, and was close to an important international waterway. Therefore, the development in this area was found to be more intense than in the southeastern coastal zone, and which was characterized by a long developmental history. On one side of the geographical boundary, the development was also found to differ among the different countries. Malaysia was observed to be dominated by industrial plantations. Meanwhile, the industrial plantations, agriculture, and aquaculture in Indonesia were significantly increased, which was closely linked with the national economic policies. Furthermore, the development of Borneo’s coastal zones has led to vegetation degradation towards a constant inland development, plantation enlargements, agricultural development, and cleared and burnt areas, which have resulted in the land use transfer of 22,000 km² of forest land within the 0 to 35 km range.     

改进遗传算法在污水处理工艺优选决策指标权值确定中的应用

构建了基于模糊聚类的改进遗传算法（简称FMGA）,用于污水处理工艺优选决策指标权值的确定。FMGA的数值仿真结果表明,该算法能有效避免早熟收敛,能在较短时间内获取指标权值并且运算过程稳定。最后,将FMGA用于确定三峡库区城镇污水处理工艺优选决策指标的权值。结果表明,经济（0．2602）〉技术（0．2094）〉能耗（0．...     

Coastal changes in the Ebro delta: Natural and human factors

The development of the delta of the River Ebro (Ebre) has, during recent centuries, been controlled by both natural and man-induced factors. Deforestation by man of the Ebro drainage basin favoured a fast progradation of the deltaic system until this century, when many dams were constructed along the river Ebro and its tributaries. As the sediment load of the river has been retained behind the dams, the river sediment discharge has been drastically reduced and erosive processes have become dominant in the Ebro delta coastal area, changing it from a river-wave to a sea-wave-dominated coast. This situation leads to a reshaping of the nearshore delta area and a redistribution of the pre-existing beach sediment, and significant erosion has already occurred in some zones. If these conditions continue in the future, severe changes will take place in the Ebro delta, in addition to the effects of a relative sea level rise. The future development of this delta may be similar to that of abandoned deltaic lobes, but faster. The present study shows, how coastal changes generated by anthropogenic factors can be faster and more drastic than those induced only by natural factors.     

Globalization of the Amazon Soy and Beef Industries: Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract:  Amazon beef and soybean industries, the primary drivers of Amazon deforestation, are increasingly responsive to economic signals emanating from around the world, such as those associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, "mad cow disease") outbreaks and China's economic growth. The expanding role of these economic "teleconnections" (coupled phenomena that take place in distant places on the planet) led to a 3-year period (2002–2004) of historically high deforestation rates. But it also increases the potential for large-scale conservation in the region as markets and finance institutions demand better environmental and social performance of beef and soy producers. Cattle ranchers and soy farmers who have generally opposed ambitious government regulations that require forest reserves on private property are realizing that good land stewardship—including compliance with legislation—may increase their access to expanding domestic and international markets and to credit and lower the risk of "losing" their land to agrarian reform. The realization of this potential depends on the successful negotiation of social and environmental performance criteria and an associated system of certification that are acceptable to both the industries and civil society. The foot-and-mouth eradication system, in which geographic zones win permission to export beef, may provide an important model for the design of a low-cost, peer-enforced, socioenvironmental certification system that becomes the mechanism by which beef and soy industries gain access to markets outside the Amazon.     

Assigning results of the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to products of a forest-wood-chain

A Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) has been developed for assessing sustainability impacts of forest-wood-chains (FWCs). Sustainability is determined by analysing environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators for all the production processes along the FWC. Results of the tool can be analysed at an aggregated level for complete FWCs, but for some applications it is useful to assign the indicator results to products of the chain.This paper presents a procedure in ToSIA to assign sustainability impacts to multiple output products of FWC. The procedure was tested and demonstrated with an example FWC from Scandinavia that included furniture and bio-energy production. Two different allocation criteria, carbon-based and economic value-based, were applied with different options for assigning the impacts on the sub-products of the chain. Three indicators representing the three pillars of the sustainability were chosen to demonstrate the procedure: production costs (economic), employment (social) and transport intensity (environmental).The results indicated that the allocation criteria greatly affect the indicator results assigned to the different products of FWCs. The selection of the allocation criterion depends on the question approached and on the availability of the needed process related data. The data availability is assured for the carbon-based allocation within ToSIA, as following the carbon flows within the chain is mandatory for any ToSIA application. Economic values of products, on the other hand, are more closely linked to the aims of the production processes of the value chains and are thereby meaningful allocation criteria in many cases. The allocation procedure of ToSIA was proved to be flexible allowing different criteria and still consistent in allocation of the various sustainability impacts of the FWCs.     

秦皇岛近海养殖对潮间带微生物群落多样性的影响

潮间带微生物群落在驱动海岸带生态系统物质循环和能量流动中具有重要作用,近海养殖造成的环境问题日益凸显,但其对潮间带微生物群落结构的影响还缺乏研究。采用变性梯度凝胶电泳（DGGE）和限制性片段长度多态性（RFLP）的分子生物学技术,研究秦皇岛养殖区与旅游区潮间带沉积物中微生物多样性的差异,分析养殖区微生物的16S rRNA基因文库的组成特征。结果表明：养殖区的微生物群落结构与旅游区形成较大的差异,DGGE图谱中养殖区的特有条带主要集中于γ-变形菌纲（γ-proteobacteria）,还分布于α-变形菌纲（α-proteobacteria）,拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）,放线菌门（Actinobacteria）和厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）。影响潮间带微生物的群落结构的主要环境因子包括温度、盐度、pH和NO3-浓度,影响率达55.2%。对差异最大的洋河大桥南养殖区（Q1站）的微生物样品建立克隆文库分析群落结构,变形菌门（Proteobacteria）为优势菌群,占总群落的60%,其中γ-变形菌纲是主要存在的微生物纲,其余菌群包括放线菌门、拟杆菌门、蓝藻菌门（Cyanobacteria）和疣微菌门（Verrucomicrobia）的微生物。养殖区海岸带微生物群落中出现了与环境污染和赤潮密切相关的菌群,如拟杆菌门、肠杆菌属（Enterobacteriaceae）和α-变形细菌红细菌目（Roseovarius）的微生物。     

Development and application of a comprehensive ecological risk assessment indicator system in Xiamen,China

Urban ecological risk is one of the important factors that may restrict the social and economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out a comprehensive assessment of ecological risks so that an ecological risk prevention and control plan can be scientifically formulated. In this paper, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment indicator system of Xiamen was established based on local ecological properties and socioeconomic status. This indicator system covers seven indicators including air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, fresh water consumption, change in land use, occupation of key zones with ecological functions, and road network expansion. Based on this indicator system and in conjunction with the single factor assessment of ecological risks, this study constructed a model of comprehensive ecological risk assessment and forecasted the comprehensive ecological risk of Xiamen in 2020. The results showed that the comprehensive ecological risk level of Xiamen in 2020 is medium and the main stressors are the discharge of air and water pollutants. From the perspective of risk receptors, i.e. the ecosystem services, the risk posed to the ecosystem services associated to the maintenance of air quality and water purification is the highest. Therefore, this study proposed the recommendations on ecological risk prevention and regulation in Xiamen based on the comprehensive assessment of ecological risks, in the hope to provide scientific support for local ecological protection and sustainable development.     

Physical damage to coastal dunes and ecological impacts caused by vehicle tracks associated with beach camping on sandy shores: a case study from Fraser Island,Australia

As coastal populations expand, demands for recreational opportunities on beaches and coastal dunes grow correspondingly. Although dunes are known to be sensitive to direct human disturbance and provide irreplaceable ecosystem services (e.g. erosion control, critical habitat and nesting sites), dunes serve as campsites for large numbers of people (∼90,000 p.a.) on the ocean-exposed shores of Fraser Island, Australia. Campsites are located in the established dunes and can only be accessed with 4WD vehicles along tracks cut directly from the beach through the foredunes. Here we quantified the extent of physical damage to foredunes caused by this practice, and tested whether human-induced physical changes to foredunes translate into biological effects. Of the 124 km of ocean-exposed beaches, 122 km (98%) are open to vehicles driven on the beaches, and camping zones cover 28.7 km or 23% of the dunes. A total of 235 vehicle tracks are cut across the foredunes at an average density of eight tracks per km of beach. These tracks have effectively destroyed one-fifth (20.2%) of the dune front in camping zones, deeply incising the dune-beach interface. There is evidence of accelerated erosion and shoreline retreat centred around vehicle tracks, resulting in a “scalloping” of the shoreline. No dune vegetation remains in the tracks and the abundance of ghost crabs (Ocypode spp.) is significantly reduced compared with the abutting dunes. Because current levels of environmental change caused by dune camping may not be compatible with the sustainable use of coastal resources and conservation obligations for the island (listed as a World Heritage Area and gazetted as a National Park), restoration and mitigation interventions are critical. These will require spatial prioritisation of effort, and we present a multi-criteria ranking method, based on quantitative measures of environmental damage and ecological attributes, to objectively target rehabilitation and conservation measures. Ultimately, coastal management needs to develop and implement strategies that reconcile demands for human recreation, including beach camping, with conservation of coastal dune ecosystems.     

Developments in remote sensing, dynamic modelling and GIS applications for integrated coastal zone management

The International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC) has a research programme that should result in an integrated environmental coastal zone management system through three subprojects. The programme aims to develop methodologies and tools for assessing coastal zone changes, and for the evaluation of scenarios for coastal zone management, based on a spatio-temporal Geographical Information System (GIS) working platform which integrates remote sensing data, physical-morphodynamic and eco-hydrologic modelling, and a decision support system. The first subproject develops methodologies for the generation of optimum Remote Sensing (RS) data sets, leading to better interpretation and complementary use of conventional and new remote sensing imagery. It also integrates RS, GIS, and modelling through hypothesis generation, parameter estimation, evaluation and validation. The second subproject facilitates qualitative and quantitative analysis and prediction of the physical aspects of coastal landscape development under the influence of natural processes and human impacts. This subproject is based on the application of remote sensing and dynamic modelling. The third subproject leads to a spatio-temporal working platform which supports data integration of RS and in-situ measurements, and qualitative and quantitative analysis for the prediction of coastal landscape development. Both support decision making in Integrated Coastal Zone Management.     

Bed load transport of sediments and morphodynamics in the Topolobampo coastal lagoon system,Mexico

The Topolobampo coastal lagoon system, located on the eastern side of the Gulf of California, is a marine zone of considerable economic importance with vessel traffic, dredging operations and aquaculture development. Despite its relevance as a conservation site, this ecosystem has been poorly studied. Since life in marine substrates is abundant, we investigated the capability of tidal hydrodynamics in the lagoon to erode and to accumulate sediment. We calculated the morphodynamics caused by bed load sediment transport applying a two dimensional non-linear hydrodynamic finite difference model. Bed erosion and accretion patterns of sediment (for specific grain size: 170 μm) were determined from the divergence of sediment transport. After a year of numerical simulation of sediment transport the areas of noticeable changes on the bottom of the lagoon have been revealed. Most of sediment accretion took place in the narrow steeped channel connecting the Topolobampo and Ohuira sections. This area appears characterized by the presence of high tidal velocity gradients. Another finding was that accretion areas were coupled with erosion zones in an alternating form. This outcome suggests that sediment do not travel long distances but is deposited nearby the erosion sites. The results are strong evidence of the influence of tidal hydrodynamics on the sediments distribution in the Topolobampo coastal lagoon system and on the generation of substrates where marine life may find protection.     

Sustainable tourism management and development of a Greek coastal municipality

A process is presented to facilitate the sustainable management and development of tourist destinations. Based on a specific reforming of the Limits of Acceptable Change planning system and combined with the Tourism Carrying Capacity concept into a common framework, specific steps are described to integrate environmental, social and economic information of a tourist destination into indicators, which are afterwards compared with reference conditions. The Leopold matrix is applied to identify and classify restrictions of development and provide the basis for negotiations between managers, stakeholders and local communities. Through a feedback process of continuous monitoring and adjustment, the aim is to focus developmental activities on restricting factors until all indicators upgrade to reference. A case study at a Greek coastal municipality (Ilida – western Greece) is applied to demonstrate the process. Activity zones are identified and 18 indicators are selected. Results suggest high potential for tourism development of the area. However, low scores are assigned to 8/18 indicators, reflecting restrictions, requiring priority under a sustainable development plan. The proposed process offers managers and stakeholders the ability to easily visualize/identify restrictions and assign developmental priorities within a step-by-step upgrading process, toward the sustainable management and development of tourist destinations.     

Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.     

Integrated coastal zone management in Italy: a gap between science and policy

This paper introduces the need, in Italian countries, of a real integration of scientific knowledge into coastal policy. Actually, in Italy, still exists a gap between Science and Policy, interfering the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) process, while there is no coordination between local, regional and national authorities. This lack of an overall strategy has induced some regions to adopt regional plans for the sustainable development of their coastal areas, to compensate the shortcomings of a national planning. Besides, along Italian coasts, there is a heavy landscape urbanization producing conditions of environmental decay and highlighting the risk of erosions in littoral areas. In this critical context, it is necessary to adopt an effective Integrated Coastal Zone Management policy, to connect ecosystem and environmental approaches with the social and economic development of coastal areas. So, in Italian landscape, it is necessary to integrate the national cultural heritage into coastal management, joining scientific and cultural issues. In this framework, ICZM process could play an important role connecting scientists and policy makers towards an effective integration for the social and economic growth of local people.