THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

EFFECTS OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SOIL PROPERTIES ON RECHARGE AT TWO SITES IN AN AGRICULTURAL FIELD1

ABSTRACT: Field experiments were conducted from 1992 to 1995 to estimate ground water recharge rates at two sites located within a 2.7‐hectare agricultural field. The field lies in a sand plain setting in central Minnesota and is cropped continuously in field corn. The sites are located at a topographically high (upland) site and a topographically low (lowland) site in an effort to quantify the effects of depression focusing of recharge. Three site‐specific methods were used to estimate recharge rates: well hydrograph analysis, chlorofluorocarbon age dating, and an unsaturated zone water balance. All three recharge methods indicated that recharge rates at the lowland site (annual average of all methods of 29 cm) exceeded those at the upland site (annual average of 18 cm). On an annual basis, estimates by the individual methods ranged from 12 to 44 percent of precipitation at the upland site and from 21 to 83 percent at the lowland site. The difference in recharge rates between the sites is primarily attributed to depression focusing of surface water runon at the lowland site. However, two other factors were also important: the presence of thin lamellae at the upland site, and coarser textured soils below a depth of 1.5 m at the lowland site.     

GROUND-WATER RECHARGE THROUGH ACTWE SAND DUNES IN NORTHWESTERN NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Most water-resouree investigations in semiarid basins of the Great Basin in western North America conclude that ground-water recharge from direct precipitation on the valley floor is negligible. However, many of these basins contain large areas covered by unvegetated, active sand dunes that may act as conduits for ground-water recharge. The potential for this previously undocumented recharge was investigated in an area covered by sand dunes in Desert Valley, northwestern Nevada, using a deep percolation model. The model uses daily measurements of precipitation and temperature th determine energy and moisture balances, from which estimates of long-term mean annual recharge are made. For the study area, the model calculated a mean annual recharge rate of as much as 1.3 inches per year, or 17 percent of the long-term mean precipitation. Model simulations also indicate that recharge would be virtually zero if the study area were covered by vegetation rather than dunes.     

Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.     

IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of a severe sustained drought on Colorado River system water resources were investigated by simulating the physical and institutional constraints within the Colorado River Basin and testing the response of the system to different hydrologic scenarios. Simulations using Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model compared a 38-year severe sustained drought derived from 500 years of reconstructed streamflows for the Colorado River basin with a 38-year streamflow trace extracted from the recent historic record. The impacts of the severe drought on streamflows, water allocation, storage, hydropower generation, and salinity were assessed. Estimated deliveries to consumptive uses in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and northern Arizona were heavily affected by the severe drought, while the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona suffered only slight shortages. Upper Basin reservoirs and streamflows were also more heavily affected than those in the Lower Basin by the severe drought. System-wide, total hydropower generation was 84 percent less in the drought scenario than in the historical stream-flow scenario. Annual, flow-weighted salinity below Lake Mead exceeded 1200 ppm for six years during the deepest portion of the severe drought. The salinity levels in the historical hydrology scenario never exceeded 1100 ppm.     

GEOLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC CONTROLS ON STREAMFLOWS IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents hydrological characteristics of the streamflow of the Dismal, Middle Loup, North Loup, and Cedar Rivers in the Nebraska Sand Hills and their relation to climate and ground water variation. Time series of streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and ground water levels from 1976 to 1998 were used to analyze trends and fluctuations of streamflow and to determine relationships among streamflow, climate, and the ground water system. An increase of precipitation and a decrease of maximum temperature over the period resulted in higher ground water levels and increased streamflow in the region. The high permeability of the soil and the thick unsaturated zone enhance precipitation recharge, limit surface runoff, and prevent ground water losses through evapotranspiration. Thus, an abundance of ground water is stored, supplying more than 86 percent of streamflow in the four rivers. Streamflow is generally more constant in the Sand Hills than elsewhere in the region. The four rivers present different hydrologic characteristics because of the spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic conditions. Streamflow of the Dismal and Middle Rivers, which are less sensitive to climatic variation, is much steadier than that of the North Loup and Cedar Rivers.     

Projections of 21st Century Sierra Nevada Local Hydrologic Flow Components Using an Ensemble of General Circulation Models1

Abstract: Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff is a key source of water for many of California’s 38 million residents and nearly the entire population of western Nevada. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of expected 21st Century climatic changes in the Sierra Nevada at the subwatershed scale, for all hydrologic flow components, and for a suite of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated at 35 unimpaired streamflow sites. Results show that temperatures are projected to increase throughout the Sierra Nevada, whereas precipitation projections vary between GCMs. These climatic changes drive a decrease in average annual streamflow and an advance of snowmelt and runoff by several weeks. The largest streamflow reductions were found in the mid‐range elevations due to less snow accumulation, whereas the higher elevation watersheds were more resilient due to colder temperatures. Simulation results showed that decreases in snowmelt affects not only streamflow, but evapotranspiration, surface, and subsurface flows, such that less water is available in spring and summer, thus potentially affecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Declining spring and summer flows did not equally affect all subwatersheds in the region, and the subwatershed perspective allowed for identification for the most sensitive basins throughout the Sierra Nevada.     

MANAGEMENT ASPECTS OF CYCLIC STORAGE OF WATER IN AQUIFER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Most of California's precipitation falls at the wrong place in the wrong season in relation to the water needs. Redistribution and regulation are essential. Aquifer systems – groundwater basins – can provide a share of the future cyclic storage regulation. There are some differences in management concepts in using a full basin in comparison with a partially dewatered basin. Legal, water quality, and physical impacts on aquifer systems, including subsidence, are concerns. Storage may be for the benefit of overlying water users or for distant areas. Extraction during dry periods or recharge methods will require careful planning. Existing rights and uses and equitable treatment of all parties must be assured. Financial compensation may be involved. Changes in methods of operation or degree of self-determination by affected water agencies will require committed watermanship to resolve. Legislation or amendments to organic acts may be needed but much can be accomplished within existing statutes. Environmental impacts which can be avoided by not using large surface storage sites are important. Energy for pumping will be a key consideration. About 40 percent of California is underlain by aquifer systems. This resource offers major potential in overcoming the maldistribution of natural water resources.     

Snowmelt Runoff and Water Yield Along Elevation and Temperature Gradients in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada1

Hunsaker, Carolyn T., Thomas W. Whitaker, and Roger C. Bales, 2012. Snowmelt Runoff and Water Yield Along Elevation and Temperature Gradients in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 667‐678. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00641.x Abstract: Differences in hydrologic response across the rain‐snow transition in the southern Sierra Nevada were studied in eight headwater catchments – the Kings River Experimental Watersheds – using continuous precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow measurements. The annual runoff ratio (discharge divided by precipitation) increased about 0.1 per 300 m of mean catchment elevation over the range 1,800‐2,400 m. Higher‐elevation catchments have lower vegetation density, shallow soils with rapid permeability, and a shorter growing season when compared with those at lower elevations. Average annual temperatures ranged from 6.8°C at 2,400 m to 8.6 at 1,950 m elevation, with annual precipitation being 75‐95% snow at the highest elevations vs. 20‐50% at the lowest. Peak discharge lagged peak snow accumulation on the order of 60 days at the higher elevations and 20 to 30 days at the lower elevations. Snowmelt dominated the daily streamflow cycle over a period of about 30 days in higher elevation catchments, followed by a 15‐day transition to evapotranspiration dominating the daily streamflow cycle. Discharge from lower elevation catchments was rainfall dominated in spring, with the transition to evapotranspiration dominance being less distinct. Climate warming that results in a longer growing season and a shift from snow to rain would result in earlier runoff and a lower runoff ratio.     

LEAKY ACRES RECHARGE FACILITY: A TEN-YEAR EVALUATION1

From 1971-1980, studies were conducted at Fresno, California, to identify and quantify, where possible, the soil and water chemistry, subsurface geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and operational factors that determine the long term (10-year) effectiveness of basin type artificial ground water recharge through alluvial soils. This paper updates previous findings and refers to publications that describe the geology beneath the basins and regional geology that determine the transmission and storage properties for local ground water management and chemical quality enhancement. High quality irrigation water from the Kings River was used for recharge. Construction and land costs for the present expanded facility 83 ha (205.2 ac) using three parcels of land were $1,457,100. The nine-year annual mean costs for only canal water, maintenance, and operation were $110.42/ha·m ($13.62/ac·ft) based on an average recharge rate of 1338 ha·m/yr (10,848 ac·ft/yr) at 86 percent facility efficiency. The measured end of season recharge rate averaged 14.97 ± 0.24 cm/day. The 10-year mean actual recharge rate based on actual water delivered, total ponded area, and total days of recharge was 12.1 cm/day.     

EVALUATION OF THE MAXEY-EAKIN METHOD FOR ESTIMATING RECHARGE TO GROUND-WATER BASINS IN NEVADA1

AESTRACT An evaluation of the Maxey-Eakin method for calculating recharge to ground-water basins in Nevada was performed. The evaluation consisted of comparing Maxey-Eakin estimates with independent estimates of recharge, and analyzing the nature of the differences between the groups of estimates. In the comparison with the Maxey-Eakin estimates, two different groups of independent estimates were used: (1) 40 recharge estimates that were identified from water budgets contained in reports by the Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and (2) 27 recharge estimates that were identified from previous studies that used models. The results of the comparisons indicate generally good agreement between the Maxey-Eakin estimates and both groups of independent estimates. To quantify this agreement, an analysis was conducted to estimate the uncertainty in the Maxey-Eakin method. The analysis produced an upper bound on the standard deviation of the Maxey-Eakin estimate for a given basin. For the group of 40 water-budget estimates, the upper bound on the standard deviation for an individual basin is 4,800 acre-ft/yr, and the corresponding coefficient of variation of the Maxey-Eakin estimate is no greater than 44 percent. For the group of 27 model estimates, the upper bound on the standard deviation is 4,100 acre-ft/yr, and the corresponding coefficient of variation is no greater than 24 percent.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

Sources and Transport of Phosphorus to Rivers in California and Adjacent States,U.S., as Determined by SPARROW Modeling

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de‐trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small‐ and intermediate‐sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

Relationship of Land‐Use/Land‐Cover Patterns and Surface‐Water Quality in The Mullica River Basin1

Abstract: We describe relationships between pH, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, nitrogen, and phosphorus and land‐use patterns in the Mullica River basin, a major New Jersey Pinelands watershed, and determine the thresholds at which significant changes in water quality occur. Nonpoint sources are the main contributors of pollutants to surface waters in the basin. Using multiple regression and water‐quality data for 25 stream sites, we determine the percentage of variation in the water‐quality data explained by urban land and upland agriculture and evaluate whether the proximity of these land uses influences water‐quality/land‐use relationships. We use a second, independently collected water‐quality dataset to validate the statistical models. The multiple‐regression results indicate that water‐quality degradation in the study area is associated with basin‐wide upland land uses, which are generally good predictors of water‐quality conditions, and that both urban land and upland agriculture must be included in models to more fully describe the relationship between watershed disturbance and water quality. Including the proximity of land uses did not improve the relationship between land use and water quality. Ten‐percent altered‐land cover in a basin represents the threshold at which a significant deviation from reference‐site water‐quality conditions occurs in the Mullica River basin.     

DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSIIED MODELS FOR TWO SIERRA NEVADA BASINS USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Techniques were developed using vector and raster data in a geographic information system (GIS) to define the spatial variability of watershed characteristics in the north-central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada and to assist in computing model input parameters. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed model, simulates runoff for a basin by partitioning a watershed into areas that each have a homogeneous hydrologic response to precipitation or snowmelt. These land units, known as hydrologic-response units (HRU's), are characterized according to physical properties, such as altitude, slope, aspect, land cover, soils, and geology, and climate patterns. Digital data were used to develop a GIS data base and HRIJ classification for the American River and Carson River basins. The following criteria are used in delineating HRU's: (1) Data layers are hydrologically significant and have a resolution appropriate to the watershed's natural spatial variability, (2) the technique for delineating HRU's accommodates different classification criteria and is reproducible, and (3) HRU's are not limited by hydrographic-subbasin boundaries. HRU's so defined are spatially noncontiguous. The result is an objective, efficient methodology for characterizing a watershed and for delineating HRU's. Also, digital data can be analyzed and transformed to assist in defining parameters and in calibrating the model.