Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Institutional innovation in urban governance: The case of climate change adaptation

Urban governance systems need to be adaptive to deal with emerging uncertainties and pressures, including those related to climate change. Realising adaptive urban governance systems requires attention to institutions, and in particular, processes of institutional innovation. Interestingly, understanding of how institutional innovation and change occurs remains a key conceptual weakness in urban climate change governance. This paper explores how institutional innovation in urban climate change governance can be conceptualised and analysed. We develop a heuristic involving three levels: (1) “visible” changes in institutional arrangements, (2) changes in underlying “rules-in-use”, and (3) the relationship to broader “governance dilemmas”. We then explore the utility of this heuristic through an exploratory case study of urban water governance in Santiago, Chile. The approach presented opens up novel possibilities for studying institutional innovation and evaluating changes in governance systems. The paper contributes to debates on innovation and its effects in urban governance, particularly under climate change.     

Linkages between biodiversity conservation and global climate change in small island developing States (SIDS)

Global climate change is an important cause of biodiversity loss. The conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources are key factors that can be effectively used to minimize the adverse impacts of global climate change. Efforts to understand and address the linkages between global climate change and biodiversity loss are both urgent and timely. Integrating responses related to these two global environmental challenges is especially relevant for small island developing States (SIDS) because the adverse impacts of climate change can impose severe stresses on biodiversity resources that are fragile, vulnerable and already under stress and the people who depend upon them. This paper argues that comprehensive assessments of adverse impacts of global climate change on the biodiversity resources of SIDS, and an improved understanding of relevant climate change related adaptation measures and sustainable energy policies (that are based on the principles of conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources) will enable SIDS to become more resilient and to develop better response capacities.     

Governing Climate Adaptation in the Local Arena: Challenges of Risk Management and Planning in Sweden

This paper directs attention to conditions for climate adaptation as an important part of governing climate change in the local arena. Empirical focus is put on attempts to manage flood risks by means of risk management and planning in two Swedish municipalities. Following the need to widen our understanding of how, when and under what conditions climate adaptation occurs, three challenges are particularly emphasized from the case studies: facing the safety vs. scenery conflict where political priorities and reducing societal vulnerabilities prove difficult; the process of deciding what to adapt to, in which the troublesome role of knowledge is striking; and finally, taking responsibility for measures of flood protection. At the end of the paper, analytical generalizations illustrate the need to give increased attention to institutional challenges and challenges emanating from the science-policy interface in order to come to terms with the implementation deficit in governing climate change in the local arena.     

Welfare environmentality and REDD+ incentives in Indonesia

This paper applies the concept of welfare environmentality to analyse Indonesia’s emerging national and project-based incentive frameworks, a key component to the climate programme reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The paper adapts governmentality theory to explore the rationale and design of various incentive instruments, including government institutions to disburse financial payments and co-benefits to multiple recipients, as well as a local demonstration project in Central Kalimantan Province. These REDD+ incentives are often conflated with the neoliberalisation of the climate agenda, focused on the adoption of market instruments and the commodification of forest carbon. However, REDD+ incentives in Indonesia include diverse policy mechanisms and encompass multiple objectives – such as the delivery of social services and employment schemes aimed at improving community livelihoods. These incentives employ a welfare environmentality, where government agencies and their partners deliver certain rights and socio-economic security for communities in return for adopting practices that improve carbon and forest management. The application of welfare environmentality shows how incentive frameworks operate as a state intervention designed to restructure relations between people and environmental resources.     

Governing Climate Adaptation in the Local Arena: Challenges of Risk Management and Planning in Sweden

Abstract

This paper directs attention to conditions for climate adaptation as an important part of governing climate change in the local arena. Empirical focus is put on attempts to manage flood risks by means of risk management and planning in two Swedish municipalities. Following the need to widen our understanding of how, when and under what conditions climate adaptation occurs, three challenges are particularly emphasized from the case studies: facing the safety vs. scenery conflict where political priorities and reducing societal vulnerabilities prove difficult; the process of deciding what to adapt to, in which the troublesome role of knowledge is striking; and finally, taking responsibility for measures of flood protection. At the end of the paper, analytical generalizations illustrate the need to give increased attention to institutional challenges and challenges emanating from the science–policy interface in order to come to terms with the implementation deficit in governing climate change in the local arena.     

我国开发性金融部门绿色投资价值的气候影响和风险研究

为应对气候变化,我国开发性金融部门探索绿色投资倒逼其低碳转型之路,相应的气候变化对其绿色投资的影响和风险值得深入研究。运用气候压力测试模型、WITCH模型和气候VaR对我国开发性金融机构绿色投资的气候冲击影响、气候风险进行实证研究。研究发现,极端气候冲击会对我国的开发性金融机构的投资价值及其投资表现产生负面影响;我国开发性金融机构绿色债券的票面利率受气候变化影响程度各异,国家开发银行随着气温的上升而增加,中国农业发展银行随着气温的下降而减少;我国开发性金融机构绿色投资气候风险各异,中国农业发展银行绿色投资的气候风险相对较大。研究成果为我国开发性金融部门应对气候变化的低碳转型和绿色投资的风险管理提供决策参考。     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management.     

Responding to climate change as a transformative stressor through metro-regional planning

This paper characterises climate change as a “transformative stressor”. It argues that institutional change will become increasingly necessary as institutions seek to reorientate governance frameworks to better manage the transformative stresses created by climate change in urban environments. Urban and metropolitan planning regimes are identified as central institutions in addressing this challenge. The operationalisation of climate adaptation is identified as a central tenet of a comprehensive urban response to the transformative stresses that climate change is predicted to create. Operationalisation refers to climate adaptation becoming incorporated, codified and implemented as a central tenet of urban planning governance. This paper has three purposes. First, it examines conceptual perspectives on the role of transformative stressors in compelling institutional change. Second, it establishes a conceptual approach that characterises climate change as a transformative stressor requiring institutional change within planning frameworks. Third, it reports emergent results and analysis from an empirical inquiry which examines how the metro-regional planning regime of Southeast Queensland has responded to climate change as a transformative stressor via institutional change and the operationalisation of climate adaptation.     

A methodological framework and tool for assessing the climate change related risks in the banking sector

Although climate change risks have been studied for a number of economic sectors, banking has received relatively little attention. The paper proposes a methodology and an associated decision-support tool for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risks for banks from the exposure of their loan recipients and/or applicants to climate change. The framework and tool are applied to a case study based on input from a Greek bank; results indicate that climate change risks for banks are considerable, and thus decision makers need to estimate their magnitude and possibly consider these within the credit management process, and in environmental planning.     

The strategic gap in air-quality management

The successful management of atmospheric pollution is best achieved when the benefits of controls can be clearly demonstrated to those who the controls affect. There is a need to demonstrate to a population that change will benefit the social and biophysical aspects of that population’s environment as a whole. This paper suggests that policy-makers need to demonstrate clearly the advantages of a change in behaviour for the local environment while concurrently minimising the life-style costs of the people whose co-operation is needed to bring that change about. This requires an improved understanding of the activities affected and the message and media by which environmental benefits can be communicated in the light of that understanding.Using the example of tropospheric ozone, this paper argues that air-quality management requires close regional co-ordination which can facilitate the establishment and implementation of local policy options. The ability of the UK National Air Quality Strategy to achieve this in its present form is discussed and the existence of a strategic gap between the current approach to air-quality management and the major issues surrounding air quality considered.     

Nepalganj,the centre of the world: local perceptions of environmental change and the roles of climate-change adaptation actors

This paper explores community perspectives of environmental change and the role development actors in the regional Nepali town of Nepalganj. Understanding these perceptions is crucial for planning future adaptation to climate change and ensuring that these measures are sustainable and in line with community priorities. Firstly, I contend that whilst the local community in Nepalganj may be experiencing the impacts of climate change, they are unfamiliar and disassociated with the concept. Secondly, I identify a number of risks and opportunities around the role of local government, international development organisations and local non-government organisations in future adaptation actions. Participant perceptions of these institutions in their community reinforce a number of established critiques of development around themes such as poor consultation and short project timelines. The long-term success of adaptation actions will be shaped by the ability and willingness of development actors to evolve their practices by listening to local communities.     

Meaning work: reworking institutional meanings for environmental governance

Effective environmental governance requires institutional change. While some actors work to change institutions, others resist change by defending and maintaining institutions. Much of this institutional work is ‘meaning work’, which we define as the practice of crafting, adapting, connecting and performing meanings to purposively create, maintain or disrupt institutions. This paper constructs a concept of meaning work that highlights agency in carrying meanings across scales and between discursive layers, while noting the structuring role of prevailing discourses. It grounds the concept using two environmental governance cases at very different scales: a local democratic innovation employed by Noosa Council in Queensland, Australia; and the international campaign to divest from fossil fuels. The cases demonstrate the diversity of meaning work and the difficulty of achieving deep discursive change. They point to the need for environmental governance practitioners to rework existing meanings to construct compelling stories for change, taking advantage of narrative openings.     

From a culture of fixing to a culture of preventing at arm & hammer brand

Companies with a total quality management program in place are beginning to understand the need for of a fuller integration of environmental and health and safety functions within their overall quality framework. Intense international competition, a flat global economy, and an increasingly stringent environmental and health and safety regulatory climate are forcing management to consolidate whatever gains they have made on the compliance side. At the same time, a total quality approach demands flattening of hierarchies, increased empowerment in divisions and plant floors, and much greater integration through a team approach of most management functions. Making all of this work puts a heavy premium on communication and individual responsibility. As companies that are going through the process now understand, this calls for major changes in corporate culture and a deep commitment from top management. This article describes the quality improvement process at Church & Dwight, makers of the Arm & Hammer line of products, where the TQEM challenge is orchestrated by a triumvirate representing three management functions: engineering, quality, and marketing/public relations.     

PROFILE: Indigenous Institutions and Environmental Assessment: The Case of Ghana

/ The search for sustainable development provides the impetus forexamining the role of indigenous institutions and their ecological knowledgein environmental assessment and local sustainability. This paper attempts totrace the evolution of environmental assessment in Ghana. Focusing on theAshanti Region, the paper further discusses the nature and operations ofindigenous institutions, their ecological knowledge, beliefs, practices, andsocial norms that are relevant to environmental assessment process in thecountry. Some of the challenges that emerge from the discussions arehighlighted. There is a need to establish environmental assessment andcooperative management boards that would include representatives ofindigenous institutions. In addition, the introduction of technicaldictionaries and training manuals based on indigenous ecological knowledgeand their humane environmental practices will further improve theenvironmental assessment process in Ghana.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Indigenous institutions; Indigenousecological knowledge; Sustainable development; Environmental assessmentboards     

Gender aspects in the management of water

Water resources increasingly need to meet the demands and needs of different sectors and to be protected against deteriorating quantity and quality. This paper discusses the different interests of men and women in the use of water resources, and what effects the neglect of female interests in particular, has on development. The authors stress that besides class and ethnic differences, the different interests of men and women also play a role in the cross-sectoral management of water resources. Water pricing, property rights and management structures are three key aspects where a gender approach is required. In the management of water resources in smaller catchment areas, several instruments for a gender approach have been developed. Discussed are gender specific participatory research, planning and tools, gender in management organizations and task divisions and involvement of multidisciplinary teams with a gender orientation.     

Freebies,freedom and fundamental change: resistance to neoliberal environmentalism in large “green” corporations

Despite the professed concern of many governments, businesses and individuals – and the recent publication of another alarming report from the IPCC – inaction on climate change remains a significant concern. For many, the problem is rooted in a neoliberal account of social change. Neoliberal environmentalism is the dominant approach to environmental issues but it is often blamed for the continuing failure of climate change policy in general and behaviour change initiatives in particular. This paper explores the dynamics of this dominant discourse through an examination of environmentalism in the large “green” corporation. Specifically, it uses discourse analysis to investigate so-called “climate champion” schemes and considers examples of resistance to the dominant neoliberal discourse. The paper finds that many of the champions did resist the basic components of neoliberal environmentalism. They challenged the principles of self-interest, self-rule and incremental change, and they talked about the possibility of enforced action. However, this resistance was limited in a number of different ways. The paper suggests that the workplace does play a role in restricting resistance but that there are more fundamental issues that need to be addressed if we hope to pursue an alternative approach to environmental problems such as climate change.     

NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

Managing natural resources in the light of climate variability

Natural resource management is central to global efforts to reduce poverty and environmental degradation, and is one of the principal ways in which countries are seeking to advance sustainable development and the implementation of Agenda 21. But these efforts to advance natural resource management are strongly impacted by climate and by seasonal and inter–annual climate variability.
This article aims to further advance understanding of the relationship between natural resource management and climate variability, with particular attention to ways in which natural resource managers at every level — from the household to the national and international levels — can cope more effectively with such variability. In particular, the article provides an overview of the way in which efforts to manage natural resources to reduce poverty and environmental degradation are impacted by natural climate variability. It examines what natural resource managers are doing to cope with these challenges, and discusses the kinds of new approaches and partnerships that are needed to improve their capacity to cope more effectively with climate variability. In doing so, the article touches on the implications of future climate changes for natural resource managers and the way in which their efforts to cope more effectively with climate variability will provide opportunities to gain experience in identifying and adjusting responses to longer–term climate change.