Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.     

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.     

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate‐induced species’ movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species’ movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving‐window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species’ dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate‐change‐informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present‐day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.     

Land‐use trade‐offs between tree biodiversity and crop production in the Atlantic Forest

Trade‐offs in ecosystem services (ES) have received increasing attention because provisioning services often come at the expense of biodiversity loss. When land‐use patterns are not maximally efficient relative to productivity, provisioning services, such as crop production, can often be increased without losing biodiversity. The Atlantic Forest (AF) encompasses dense, mixed, and seasonal forests and has high levels of endemism and anthropogenic threat. We examined trade‐offs between biodiversity and crop production in the AF to provide insights into land‐use management decisions. We developed a biodiversity metric that combines information on tree species richness, evolutionary distinctiveness, and rarity at the local level. We examined the extent to which the nature of ES trade‐offs differ among the 3 forest types. We assessed how annual deforestation rates and land management practices affect biodiversity and agricultural revenues. Finally, we tested whether it is possible to achieve the same total regional revenue without reducing biodiversity by improving local management practices. The 3 forest types had similar patterns in ES trade‐offs, although within mixed forest patterns differed. Biodiversity appeared to be more sensitive to land‐use change than crop revenues. Certain crops yielded up to 10 times higher values in some sites. Enhanced crop productivity may increase revenues without reducing biodiversity. Our results showed that to enhance human well‐being without further conversion of AF, maximizing crop productivity is needed . Increasing efficiency of management outcomes by maintaining higher biodiversity and increasing provisioning services depends on knowledge of forest type, the comparative advantage of planting crops in the best places, and preserving species in a balanced manner across forests.     

Bird extirpations and community dynamics in an Andean cloud forest over 100 years of land-use change

Long-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce—especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost—a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.     

Site-specific and integrated adaptation to climate change in the coastal mangrove zone of Soc Trang Province, Viet Nam

The dynamic coastline of Soc Trang Province in the Mekong Delta of Viet Nam is in most parts protected from erosion, storms and flooding by a narrow belt of mangroves. However, the unsustainable use of natural resources and development in the coastal zone is threatening the protection function of this forest belt. This situation is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, particularly by the increased intensity and frequency of storms, floods and by rising sea levels. Based on analysis of past experience of mangrove planting and historical changes in mangrove cover, an integrated and site-specific approach to adaptation to climate change has been put in place, which comprises mangrove planting and rehabilitation with emphasis on resilience to climate change, and participatory involvement of local communities in effective mangrove management and protection through co-management. To address uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change, testing of new mangrove planting techniques has started. This includes mimicking successful natural regeneration for small-scale planting in sites with high wave energy and transformation of existing even-aged plantations into more diverse forests—both in terms of structure and species composition. The pre-requisite for mangrove rehabilitation in erosion sites has successfully been put in place: breakwaters made from bamboo have reduced erosion and stimulated sedimentation. The design and construction of the wave-breaking structures, which was based on a numerical model which simulates hydrodynamics and shoreline development, ensures that downdrift erosion can be avoided as far as possible. A comprehensive monitoring program has been established and initial results provide evidence for the effectiveness of the bamboo breakwaters. Early experience shows that co-management is an effective way of maintaining and enhancing the protection function of the mangrove forest belt and at the same time providing livelihood for local communities. Payment for ecosystem services contributes to sustainability of co-management as well as livelihood improvement.     

An economic evaluation framework for land-use-based conservation policy instruments in a changing climate

Climate change is a key threat to biodiversity. To conserve species under climate change, ecologists and conservation scientists suggest 2 main conservation strategies regarding land use: supporting species’ range shifts to enable it to follow its climatic requirements by creating migration pathways, such as corridors and stepping stones, and conserving climate refugia (i.e., existing habitat areas that are somewhat buffered from climate change). The policy instruments that could be used to implement these conservation strategies have yet to be evaluated comprehensively from an economic perspective. The economic analyses of environmental policy instruments are often based on ecological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness criteria. We adapted these general criteria to evaluate policy instruments for species’ conservation under climate change and applied them to a conceptual analysis of land purchases, offsets, and conservation payments. Depending on whether the strategy supporting species’ range shifts or conserving climate refugia is selected, the evaluation of the policy instruments differed substantially. For example, to ensure ecological effectiveness, habitat persistence over time was especially important for climate refugia and was best achieved by a land-purchase policy instrument. In contrast, for the strategy supporting range shifts to be ecologically effective, a high degree of flexibility in the location of conserved sites was required to ensure that new habitat sites can be created in the species’ new range. Offset programs were best suited for that because the location of conservation sites can be chosen comparatively freely and may also be adapted over time.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.     

Rewilding in the face of climate change

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.     

Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model.

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies.     

The theory behind,and the challenges of,conserving nature's stage in a time of rapid change

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation‐planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse “stage” upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time—albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.     

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.     

Woody plant richness and NDVI response to drought events in Catalonian (northeastern Spain) forests

The role of species diversity on ecosystem resistance in the face of strong environmental fluctuations has been addressed from both theoretical and experimental viewpoints to reveal a variety of positive and negative relationships. Here we explore empirically the relationship between the richness of forest woody species and canopy resistance to extreme drought episodes. We compare richness data from an extensive forest inventory to a temporal series of satellite imagery that estimated drought impact on forest canopy as NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) anomalies of the dry summer in 2003 in relation to records of previous years. We considered five different types of forests that are representative of the main climatic and altitudinal gradients of the region, ranging from lowland Mediterranean to mountain boreal-temperate climates. The observed relationship differed among forest types and interacted with the climate, summarised by the Thorntwaite index. In Mediterranean Pinus halepensis forests, NDVI decreased during the drought. This decrease was stronger in forests with lower richness. In Mediterranean evergreen forests of Quercus ilex, drought did not result in an overall NDVI loss, but lower NDVI values were observed in drier localities with lower richness, and in more moist localities with higher number of species. In mountain Pinus sylvestris forests NDVI decreased, mostly due to the drought impact on drier localities, while no relation to species richness was observed. In moist Fagus sylvatica forests, NDVI only decreased in plots with high richness. No effect of drought was observed in the high mountain Pinus uncinata forests. Our results show that a shift on the diversity-stability relationship appears across the regional, climatic gradient. A positive relationship appears in drier localities, supporting a null model where the probability of finding a species able to cope with drier conditions increases with the number of species. However, in more moist localities we hypothesize that the proportion of drought-sensitive species would increase in richer localities, due to a higher likelihood of co-occurrence of species that share moist climatic requirements. The study points to the convenience of considering the causes of disturbance in relation to current environmental gradients and historical environmental constraints on the community.     

Biodiversity Differences between Managed and Unmanaged Forests: Meta-Analysis of Species Richness in Europe

Abstract: Past and present pressures on forest resources have led to a drastic decrease in the surface area of unmanaged forests in Europe. Changes in forest structure, composition, and dynamics inevitably lead to changes in the biodiversity of forest‐dwelling species. The possible biodiversity gains and losses due to forest management (i.e., anthropogenic pressures related to direct forest resource use), however, have never been assessed at a pan‐European scale. We used meta‐analysis to review 49 published papers containing 120 individual comparisons of species richness between unmanaged and managed forests throughout Europe. We explored the response of different taxonomic groups and the variability of their response with respect to time since abandonment and intensity of forest management. Species richness was slightly higher in unmanaged than in managed forests. Species dependent on forest cover continuity, deadwood, and large trees (bryophytes, lichens, fungi, saproxylic beetles) and carabids were negatively affected by forest management. In contrast, vascular plant species were favored. The response for birds was heterogeneous and probably depended more on factors such as landscape patterns. The global difference in species richness between unmanaged and managed forests increased with time since abandonment and indicated a gradual recovery of biodiversity. Clearcut forests in which the composition of tree species changed had the strongest effect on species richness, but the effects of different types of management on taxa could not be assessed in a robust way because of low numbers of replications in the management‐intensity classes. Our results show that some taxa are more affected by forestry than others, but there is a need for research into poorly studied species groups in Europe and in particular locations. Our meta‐analysis supports the need for a coordinated European research network to study and monitor the biodiversity of different taxa in managed and unmanaged forests.     

Predicting landscape-scale biodiversity recovery by natural tropical forest regrowth

Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9–51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth.     

Gradient forests: calculating importance gradients on physical predictors

In ecological analyses of species and community distributions there is interest in the nature of their responses to environmental gradients and in identifying the most important environmental variables, which may be used for predicting patterns of biodiversity. Methods such as random forests already exist to assess predictor importance for individual species and to indicate where along gradients abundance changes. However, there is a need to extend these methods to whole assemblages, to establish where along the range of these gradients the important compositional changes occur, and to identify any important thresholds or change points. We develop such a method, called "gradient forest," which is an extension of the random forest approach. By synthesizing the cross-validated R2 and accuracy importance measures from univariate random forest analyses across multiple species, sampling devices, and surveys, gradient forest obtains a monotonic function of each predictor that represents the compositional turnover along the gradient of the predictor. When applied to a synthetic data set, the method correctly identified the important predictors and delineated where the compositional change points occurred along these gradients. Application of gradient forest to a real data set from part of the Great Barrier Reef identified mud fraction of the sediment as the most important predictor, with highest compositional turnover occurring at mud fraction values around 25%, and provided similar information for other predictors. Such refined information allows for more accurate capturing of biodiversity patterns for the purposes of bioregionalization, delineation of protected areas, or designing of biodiversity surveys.     

Conservation planning on China's borders with Myanmar,Laos, and Vietnam

Transboundary conservation is playing an increasingly important role in maintaining ecosystem integrity and halting biodiversity loss caused by anthropogenic activities. However, lack of information on species distributions in transboundary regions and understanding of the threats in these areas impairs conservation. We developed a spatial conservation plan for the transboundary areas between Yunnan province, southwestern China, and neighboring Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. To identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, we determined species distribution patterns and recent land-use changes and examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the connected natural forest, which supports most species. We assessed connectivity with equivalent connected area (ECA), which is the amount of reachable habitat for a species. An ECA incorporates the presence of habitat in a patch and the amount of habitat in other patches within dispersal distance. We analyzed 197,845 locality records from specimen collections and monographs for 21,004 plant and vertebrate species. The region of Yunnan immediately adjacent to the international borders had the highest species richness, with 61% of recorded species and 56% of threatened vertebrates, which suggests high conservation value. Satellite imagery showed the area of natural forest in the border zone declined by 5.2% (13,255 km²) from 1995 to 2018 and monoculture plantations increased 92.4%, shrubland 10.1%, and other cropland 6.2%. The resulting decline in connected natural forest reduced the amount of habitat, especially for forest specialists with limited dispersal abilities. The most severe decline in connectivity was along the Sino-Vietnamese border. Many priority areas straddle international boundaries, indicating demand and potential for establishing transboundary protected areas. Our results illustrate the importance of bi- and multilateral cooperation to protect biodiversity in this region and provide guidance for future conservation planning and practice.     

4200 years of pine-dominated upland forest dynamics in west-central Mexico: human or natural legacy?

The pine-dominated forests of west-central Mexico are internationally recognized for their high biodiversity, and some areas are protected through various conservation measures including prohibition of human activity. In this region, however, there is evidence for human settlement dating back to ca. AD 1200. It is therefore unclear whether the present forest composition and structure are part of a successional stage following use by indigenous human populations during the past, or due to natural processes, such as climate. We present a study reconstructing the vegetation dynamics of pine-dominated forest over the past 4200 years using paleoecological techniques. Results from fossil pollen and charcoal indicate that, in this region, pine-dominated forests are the native vegetation type and not anthropogenically derived secondary succession. The predominant driving mechanism for the expansion of pine-dominated forest appears to be intervals of aridity and naturally induced burning. A close association is noted between pine abundance and longer-term climatic trends, including intervals of aridity between ca. 4200 and 2500, 1200 and 850, and 500 and 200 cal yr BP and shorter-term trends. Evident periodicity occurs in pine and Poaceae abundance every 80 years. These short-term quasi-periodic oscillations have been recorded in a number of lake and ocean sediments in Mexico and are thought to be linked to solar forcing resulting in drought cycles that occur at approximately the same time intervals.     

Social comfort zones for transformative conservation decisions in a changing climate

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.