Nesting Success of a Neotropical Migrant in a Multiple-Use, Forested Landscape

Abstract: We studied the nesting success of an individually marked population of Kentucky Warblers ( Oporornis formosus ), a species that nests in disturbed and undisturbed forests, in a heterogeneous, managed forest site in the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois from 1992 to 1995. We examined the effects of forest stand type (clearcuts of various ages, tree plantations, and older forest) and distance from habitat edges on rates of nest predation and brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (   Molothrus ater ). Brood parasitism levels gradually decreased from 60% to 3% ( nests) over a distance of 2 km from an agricultural edge proximal to a known cowbird foraging site (a pig feedlot), but they did not vary with distance from any other kinds of edges or with forest stand type. Rates of nest predation ( nests) did not vary with distance from any edges, but they were significantly lower in older forest than within even-aged clearcuts, a tree plantation, and in successional vegetation adjacent to a residential facility. These results suggest that, even in fragmented landscapes with high overall levels of parasitism and nest predation, management practices within and immediately adjacent to forest tracts can affect the nesting success of some species, but not necessarily as a simple function of distance from edge. For the Kentucky Warbler, our results suggest that a management strategy that avoids even-age silviculture and leaves core stands of older forest far from cowbird feeding areas can increase nesting success to levels similar to those measured in more forested landscapes.     

Tests of landscape influence: nest predation and brood parasitism in fragmented ecosystems

The effects of landscape fragmentation on nest predation and brood parasitism, the two primary causes of avian reproductive failure, have been difficult to generalize across landscapes, yet few studies have clearly considered the context and spatial scale of fragmentation. Working in two river systems fragmented by agricultural and rural-housing development, we tracked nesting success and brood parasitism in > 2500 bird nests in 38 patches of deciduous riparian woodland. Patches on both river systems were embedded in one of two local contexts (buffered from agriculture by coniferous forest, or adjacent to agriculture), but the abundance of agriculture and human habitation within 1 km of each patch was highly variable. We examined evidence for three models of landscape effects on nest predation based on (1) the relative importance of generalist agricultural nest predators, (2) predators associated with the natural habitats typically removed by agricultural development, or (3) an additive combination of these two predator communities. We found strong support for an additive predation model in which landscape features affect nest predation differently at different spatial scales. Riparian habitat with forest buffers had higher nest predation rates than sites adjacent to agriculture, but nest predation also increased with increasing agriculture in the larger landscape surrounding each site. These results suggest that predators living in remnant woodland buffers, as well as generalist nest predators associated with agriculture, affect nest predation rates, but they appear to respond at different spatial scales. Brood parasitism, in contrast, was unrelated to agricultural abundance on the landscape, but showed a strong nonlinear relationship with farm and house density, indicating a critical point at which increased human habitat causes increased brood parasitism. Accurate predictions regarding landscape effects on nest predation and brood parasitism will require an increased appreciation of the multiple scales at which landscape components influence predator and parasite behavior.     

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge, USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set (N?=?67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.     

Evidence of an Edge Effect on Avian Nest Success

Abstract:  Habitat fragmentation may modify ecological patterns by increasing the importance of edge effects, including elevating rates of predation on avian nests. Conventional wisdom suggests an increased rate of predation along habitat edges, and previous reviews support this view. These reviews did not apply recent statistical approaches, however, and some were based on a small number of studies. In our meta-analysis of 64 nest-predation experiments, our results supported prior reviews of the general pattern of increased nest predation along habitat edges (  p < 0.01). We separated studies into ecologically relevant categories and found the following patterns: (1) Edge effects were more pronounced in North America and northwestern Europe than in central Europe or Central America. This result may be biased, however, by the different habitats studied in the regions. (2) Marshes and deciduous forests had significant edge effects, whereas edge effects were not apparent in coniferous forests, tropical forests, or fields. (3) Ground and natural nest studies were more likely to exhibit edge effects. (4) Edge effects were detected in studies that used quail eggs and real eggs. (5) Edge effects were not significant when artificial nests were exposed for typical incubation periods, but were significant for shorter exposures. Three alternative hypotheses may explain increased nest predation along edges. The edge-effects hypothesis states that increased nest losses along edges are the result of the habitat discontinuity. The landscape-structure hypothesis states that more fragmented landscapes are more heavily depredated by nest predators. The human-disturbance hypothesis states that near anthropogenic edges increased nest predation is related to human activities. Nest-predation experiments should be placed in a landscape context to reveal differences between the hypotheses.     

Wood Thrush Populations Are Not All Sinks in the Agricultural Midwestern United States

Abstract: Conservation strategies for forest-breeding, Neotropical migratory birds focus on the identification and preservation of source habitats. In sources, populations maintain relatively high levels of reproductive success, whereas in sinks, reproductive success is consistently below net replacement rate. In agricultural regions of the midwestern United States, forest patches of various sizes appear to act as sinks for Neotropical migrants. In 1994–1996 I monitored Wood Thrush (   Hylocichla mustelina ) nests in four forest patches in an agricultural landscape in northern Indiana. Given the prevailing estimates of adult and juvenile survival, I report productivity data that show substantial annual variation and that are sufficient to suggest the maintenance of temporal sources. Indeed, some Wood Thrush populations may act as source habitats in regions with relatively high levels of Brown-headed Cowbird (   Molothrys ater ) parasitism and nest predation because pairs produce multiple clutches and have the ability to fledge cowbirds and their own young from parasitized nests. My results and those from other studies of Wood Thrushes in landscapes with fragmented forests illustrate the variable ways in which source-sink dynamics are affected by habitat fragmentation. In some agricultural regions, populations in small forest patches may act as sources for Wood Thrushes and may be a legitimate focus of conservation efforts aimed at some migratory songbirds.     

Nesting Success of a Disturbance-Dependent Songbird on Different Kinds of Edges

We compared the nesting success of a disturbance-dependent species, the Indigo Bunting ( Passerina cyanea), on different kinds of habitat edges in five sites (225 total nests) in southern Illinois from 1989 to 1993. Nest predation rates along agricultural and abrupt, permanent edges (e.g., wildlife openings, campgrounds) were nearly twice as high as rates along more gradual edges where plant succession was allowed to occur (e.g., treefalls, streamsides, gaps created by selective logging ). Levels of brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater) varied significantly among sites and years, but not among edge types. Clutch sizes, however, were significantly smaller at agricultural edges where nest predation rates were also high, which suggests either decreased food availability or a population dominated by younger and/or lower-quality ( poor condition) birds. The results of this study illustrate the need to reevaluate management practices (e.g., wildlife openings) that are designed to promote populations of disturbance-dependent wildlife.     

An Experimental Test of Matrix Permeability and Corridor Use by an Endemic Understory Bird

Abstract:  Because of widespread habitat fragmentation, maintenance of landscape connectivity has become a major focus of conservation planning, but empirical tests of animal movement in fragmented landscapes remain scarce. We conducted a translocation experiment to test the relative permeability of three landscape elements (open habitat, shrubby secondary vegetation, and wooded corridors) to movement by the Chucao Tapaculo ( Scelorchilus rubecula ), a forest understory bird endemic to South American temperate rainforest. Forty-one radio-tagged subjects were translocated (individually) to three landscape treatments consisting of small release patches that were either entirely surrounded by open habitat (pasture), entirely surrounded by dense shrubs, or linked to other patches by wooded corridors that were otherwise surrounded by open matrix. The number of days subjects remained in release patches before dispersal (a measure of habitat resistance) was significantly longer for patches surrounded by open habitat than for patches adjoining corridors or surrounded by dense shrubs. These results indicate that open habitat significantly constrains Chucao dispersal, in accord with expectation, but dispersal occurs equally well through wooded corridors and shrub-dominated matrix. Thus, corridor protection or restoration and management of vegetation in the matrix (to encourage animal movement) may be equally feasible alternatives for maintaining connectivity.     

Forest Fragmentation Increases Nest Predation in the Eurasian Treecreeper

Abstract:  We used long-term breeding data to monitor the influences of fragmentation and habitat composition at different spatial scales on the reproductive success of Eurasian Treecreepers ( Certhia familiaris ) breeding in nest boxes. We collected data from the same forest patches (2.7–65.1 ha in size) during seven breeding seasons. Nest predation varied considerably over the years and was the primary cause of nesting failure (mean annual rate of 21.6 ± 12.8%). Nest predation explained most of the variation in fledgling production during the study period. Landscape-level fragmentation (radius of 500 m from territory center) affected nest predation more than did fragmentation on the territory scale (radius of 200 m from territory center). In general, nest loss due to predation in fragmented landscapes (32.4%) was almost threefold that of less fragmented (12.0%) landscapes. Of the habitat variables, predation rate correlated positively with the density of edges between forest and open land and with the proportion of sapling stands on the spatial scale of 500 m around a nest. In the core area of a territory (radius of 30 m from territory center), a high density of trees increased the frequency of nest predation. Further, a high proportion of agricultural land close to a nest site increased nest losses of treecreepers, probably because of a high degree of mustelid predation. Our results showed that the spatial scale on which we examined nest predation is important and that even within moderately fragmented landscapes it is possible to detect fragmentation-related nest predation.     

Nesting Success of Neotropical Migrant Songbirds in a Highly Fragmented Landscape

Abstract: Small forests in agricultural landscapes are generally thought to be population sinks where the nesting success of Neotropical migrant songbirds is too low to sustain populations. In 1996 and 1997, we assessed the nesting success and productivity of Wood Thrushes (  Hylocichla mustelina ) and Rose-breasted Grosbeaks (  Pheucticus ludovicianus ) in the Region of Waterloo, a highly fragmented agricultural landscape with 14% forest cover in southwestern Ontario. We located 154 Wood Thrush nests and 63 Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests in 26 small forest fragments (3–14 ha) and 15 large fragments (26–140 ha). We used the Mayfield method to determine nesting success. Across all sites nesting success was 51% for Wood Thrushes and 46% for Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. Nesting success and productivity rates were used in a simple population growth model that suggested that the Wood Thrushes but not the Rose-breasted Grosbeaks were a self-sustaining population. Forest size and distance of nests to the nearest forest edge (measured in five distance classes ranging from 0 to over 100 m) did not significantly affect the nesting success or productivity of either species. Brown-headed Cowbirds (   Molothrus ater ) parasitized 47% of all Wood Thrush nests and 10% of all Rose-breasted Grosbeak nests; parasitism significantly reduced Wood Thrush productivity but not that of Rose-breasted Grosbeaks. Our findings challenge the prevailing notion that small woodlots in a farmed landscape are invariably habitat sinks and offer additional incentive for habitat protection in settled landscapes where small forest fragments are often all that remain for conservation purposes.     

The Use of Corridors by Mammals in Fragmented Australian Eucalypt Forests

We used a replicated sampling program to examine the use of roadside corridors as habitat by native mammals. Our procedure compared the abundance and diversity of mammals in remnant forest, pasture, and two types of roadside corridor. Fixed transects were established in these four habitat types at six replicate sites. Spotlight, live-trap, and daytime observation surveys were used as census techniques. Few mammals were detected in pasture, and spotlighting revealed a higher total density of mammals in corridors than in forests, indicating corridors provide important habitat. Nevertheless, the number of species using corridors distant to forest was less than that in the corridors close to forest and the forest patches. Different species did not utilize corridors in the same way. We also found intraspecific differences in habitat use by one species of small mammal (Antechinus stuartii), which may have implications for the value of corridors to this species. Specifically, there was a higher proportion of males, and individuals of both sexes had lower body weight in corridors than in forests. Our study demonstrates that corridors can provide useful habitat for mammalian assemblages, but may not provide a complete solution to the problem of landscape fragmentation.     

Agricultural Land Use and Grassland Habitat in Illinois: Future Shock for Midwestern Birds?

Populations of many common grassland birds in the midwestern United States have been declining in recent decades. These declines have been particularly pronounced in Illinois, where the prairie has been severely fragmented and disturbed by farming. This article describes transitions in agricultural land use in Illinois since the early 1800s, their effects on grassland habitat, and responses by avifauna. Furthermore, factors affecting nesting by birds are considered from a landscape perspective for a study area in central Illinois during the period (1973–1981) when cropping became so intensive that grassland persisted primarily as linear edges. There was a paucity of avifauna nesting on grassy edge habitats on the study area, with a mean of 2.2 nests per ha, representing only eight species. Nest densities and species diversity were highest on study plots where grassland was nearby, where cover types were heterogeneous, and where there were corridors connecting plots to the surrounding landscape. Nest success was variable from year to year, and for Ring-necked Pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ) the average annual nest success on edge habitats was positively related to the total amount of grassy cover (including hay and small grains) per nesting pleasant. The findings suggest that it is too simplistic to conclude that linear habitats, compared to field settings, are "predator traps." Responses by birds to habitat deteríoration in Illinois may foretell future trends elsewhere in North America where farming practices are becoming more intensive.     

Edge Effects in the Great Tit: Analyses of Long-term Data with GIS Techniques

Abstract:  In contemporary fragmented landscapes, edges are commonplace, and understanding the effects of edge environments is thus essential for the conservation of forest communities. The reproductive output of forest passerines is often reduced close to forest edges. Possible explanations include overcrowding by conspecifics, elevated rates of predation, and the occurrence of lower-quality habitat and/or individuals at forest edges. We attempted to separate these processes by examining edge effects in the absence of nest predation and by effectively controlling for differences in breeding density and the quality of habitats and individuals. We used an edge distance index (EDI), which accounts for the number and distribution of edges in close proximity to a breeding location, to help explain variation in breeding density, nesting success, and reproductive traits of 8308 pairs of Great Tits ( Parus major ) breeding between 1965 and 2005, in Wytham, near Oxford, United Kingdom. Results from linear mixed modeling confirmed higher breeding density and a higher proportion of immigrant individuals at forest edges. Nevertheless, independently of these effects, we also found that birds laying later, with smaller clutches but larger eggs, were typical of edge environments. The number of offspring recruited to the breeding offspring per breeding attempt was also reduced at edges, both directly and mediated through changes in clutch size and laying date. Edge effects on life histories were detectable within individual females and up to 500 m from the woodland edge. Woodland edges are increasingly common in contemporary fragmented landscapes. Therefore these results, which suggest a pervasive effect of edges on reproduction, are of considerable importance to the management and conservation of forest communities.     

Landscape Context Moderates Edge Effects: Nesting Success of Wood Thrushes in Central New York

Abstract:  Despite two decades of research into the effects of habitat fragmentation and edges on nesting birds, critical information about how edges affect the success of natural nests of Neotropical migratory songbirds breeding in heterogeneous landscapes is still missing. We studied abundance and nesting success in Wood Thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) breeding across a heterogeneous landscape in central New York from 1998 to 2000 to test the hypothesis that edge effects on nesting passerines are stronger in fragmented than contiguous landscapes. We monitored nests to estimate nesting success in edge and interior habitats in both fragmented and contiguously forested landscapes. In contiguous landscapes, daily survival rate did not differ between edge nests (0.963) and interior nests (0.968) (χ²= 0.19, p = 0.66). In contrast, in fragmented landscapes, daily survival estimates were higher in interior (0.971) than edge (0.953) nests (χ²= 3.1, p = 0.08). Our study supports the hypothesis that landscape composition moderates edge effects on actual nests of birds but does not determine the mechanisms causing these patterns.     

Song rate as a signal for nest site quality in blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla)

In this study we examine male song output as a measure of nest site quality in blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla). Song rate, breeding success, predation on nests and reaction to playbacks were investigated in individual males. Habitat features determining nest site and song post quality in terms of vegetation cover were compared between successful nests and nests that had suffered predation. We then related song rate of unmated males to habitat factors in territories and nesting sites in order to examine a possible predictor function of blackcap song for habitat quality. Several habitat features are responsible for variation in nesting success. These features also correlate with song rate of unmated males. The study indicates a potential role of song rate in the advertisement of territory quality. Furthermore, the data suggest that females use song rates rather than territory quality in mating decisions. The information females may gain about male quality in relation to territory quality are also discussed.     

Defining Forest Fragmentation by Corridor Width: The Influence of Narrow Forest-Dividing Corridors on Forest-Nesting Birds in Southern New Jersey

In studies of forest fragmentation, a fundamental inconsistency exists in the distance criterion used to define the discreteness of forest fragments. We examined three types of ubiquitous, narrow, forest-dividing corridors for effects that influence the relative abundance and community composition of forest-nesting birds. Fixed-radius (100-meter) point counts were conducted on 54 transects established along three width classes of corridors: unpaved roads (8 meters wide), paved roads (16 meters wide), and powerlines (23 meters wide). Transect locations were distributed equally among corridor edge, forest margin 100 meters from corridor edge, and forest interior 300 meters from corridor edge. Forest-interior species of Neotropical migrants had significantly reduced relative abundances on edge transects along 16- and 23-meter corridors, compared with 8-meter corridors and with forest interior points along all three corridor-width classes. At a landscape scale, the consequences of apparently small reductions in forest area by the presence of narrow forest-dividing corridors may be cumulatively significant for abundances of forest-interior species. Brown-headed Cowbirds were more abundant than 20 of 21 forest-interior Neotropical migrants. We found surprisingly high abundances of cowbirds associated with narrow forest-dividing corridors, especially those with mowed grass. Corridor widths as narrow as 8 meters produce forest fragmentation effects in part by attracting cowbirds and nest predators to corridors and adjacent forest interiors. The most serious implication of this study is that narrow forest-dividing corridors may function as ecological traps for forest-interior Neotropical migrants. We suggest that these widespread corridors may be inconspicuous but important contributors to declines of forest-interior nesting species in eastern North America.     

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: habitat-based approach for endangered greater sage-grouse.

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern.     

Reproductive Investment of a Lacertid Lizard in Fragmented Habitat

Abstract:  We studied the effect of habitat fragmentation on female reproductive investment in a widespread lacertid lizard (  Psammodromus algirus ) in a mixed-forest archipelago of deciduous and evergreen oak woods in northern Spain. We captured gravid females in fragments (≤10 ha) and forests (≥ 200 ha) and brought them to the laboratory, where they laid their eggs. We incubated the eggs and released the first cohort of juveniles into the wild to monitor their survival. Females from fragments produced a smaller clutch mass and laid fewer eggs (relative to mean egg mass) than females of similar body size from forests. Lizards did not trade larger clutches for larger offspring, however, because females from fragments did not lay larger eggs (relative to their number) than females from forests. Among the first cohort of juveniles, larger egg mass and body size increased the probability of recapture the next year. Thus, fragmentation decreased the relative fecundity of lizards without increasing the quality of their offspring. Reduced energy availability, increased predation risk, and demographic stochasticity could decrease the fitness of lizards in fragmented habitats, which could contribute to the regional scarcity of this species in agricultural areas sprinkled with small patches of otherwise suitable forest. Our results show that predictable reduction of reproductive output with decreasing size of habitat patches can be added to the already known processes that cause inverse density dependence at low population numbers.     

Parasitic common goldeneye (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bucephala clangula</Emphasis>) females lay preferentially in safe neighbourhoods

Nest predation has been suggested as an explanation of the adaptive significance and evolution of conspecific brood parasitism, an alternative reproductive tactic pursued by females in several animal taxa. I used new nest boxes that contained only decoy eggs and were erected on lakes differing in real nest predation risk to test this hypothesis in the common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula), a hole-nesting duck. I used broken eggs to simulate predation risk of the boxes to determine if parasites having no previous experience with the boxes discriminate between seemingly safe and risky nest sites. Parasites laid eggs in the experimental boxes independently of the simulated predation risk, suggesting that they do not use broken eggs or nest disarray as indicators of predation intensity. Parasites preferred experimental boxes on lakes where real nest predation risk was low, supporting the nest predation risk hypothesis. Assuming that females in high risk areas have had experience of nest predation, they may take this into account in selecting host nests.     

Dune vegetation fertilization by nesting sea turtles

Sea turtle nesting presents a potential pathway to subsidize nutrient-poor dune ecosystems, which provide the nesting habitat for sea turtles. To assess whether this positive feedback between dune plants and turtle nests exists, we measured N concentration and delta15N values in dune soils, leaves from a common dune plant (sea oats [Uniola paniculata]), and addled eggs of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) across a nesting gradient (200-1050 nests/km) along a 40.5-km stretch of beach in east central Florida, USA. The delta15N levels were higher in loggerhead than green turtle eggs, denoting the higher trophic level of loggerhead turtles. Soil N concentration and delta15N values were both positively correlated to turtle nest density. Sea oat leaf tissue delta15N was also positively correlated to nest density, indicating an increased use of augmented marine-based nutrient sources. Foliar N concentration was correlated with delta15N, suggesting that increased nutrient availability from this biogenic vector may enhance the vigor of dune vegetation, promoting dune stabilization and preserving sea turtle nesting habitat.     

Patterns of Nest Predation on Artificial and Natural Nests in Forests

Abstract:  Artificial nest experiments have been used in an attempt to understand patterns of predation affecting natural nests. A growing body of literature suggests that neither relative rates nor patterns of predation are the same for artificial and natural nests. We studied nest predation and daily mortality rates and patterns at real and artificial ground and shrub nests to test the validity of artificial nest experiments. We monitored 1667 artificial and 344 natural nests, over seven trials, in three regions, across 58 sites in Ontario. We controlled for many of the factors thought to be responsible for previously reported differences between predation rates on natural and artificial nests. Although artificial nests in our study resembled natural nests, contained eggs of appropriate size, shape, and color of target bird species, and were placed in similar microhabitats as natural nests, the rates of predation on these nests did not parallel rates on natural nests for any region in terms of absolute rate or pattern. Predation rates on artificial nests did not vary between years, as they tended to for natural nests, and the magnitude of predation pressure on artificial ground nests compared with shrub nests did not show the same pattern as that on natural nests. In general, rates of predation on artificial nests were significantly higher than on natural nests. Our results suggest that conclusions derived from artificial nest studies may be unfounded. Given that many influential ideas in predation theory are based on results of artificial nest experiments, it may be time to redo these experiments with natural nests.