河网城镇水环境设计流量

河网系统中河流环境容量研究的基本困难除流量、流向复杂多变外,在密布的河流控制断面上缺少长系列流量资料是普遍存在的问题.本文以河网地区典型河段为例,基于对邻近地区水文站的水位系列资料及残缺不全的流量资科进行各种有效的关联分析,解决短时段实测资料水文概率的基础上,提出了通过不同水位概率的历史同水位对应流量的加权平均方法,推算环境设计流量及各支流断面流量分解的工程算法,为水环境容量研究及水资源规划提供参考依据.     

常州平原河网水动力模型构建

针对平原河网水动力状况的特点,利用MIKE11软件包建立了常州市河网水动力模型,并利用常州市13个水文站点1997、1999和2009年实测水位和流量资料对模型参数进行率定与验证.结果表明,河道糙率值在0.020～0.035之间,模型计算值和实测值吻合良好,能够反映河道的主要水动力特征.     

城市路面径流污染负荷及采样次数对其估算准确性的影响

在西安市城市主干道南二环路建立路面径流原位采样站,利用自制流量等比例采样装置,采集2009年3月-2010年2月的36场降雨径流,测试各场次径流SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH4-N、Pb、Zn和溶解态Pb、Zn的事件平均浓度(EMC),计算径流年污染负荷,并采用随机抽样方法研究采样次数对污染负荷估算准确性的影响.结果...     

近10年中国典型农田生态系统水体pH和矿化度变化特征

选取中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)12个典型农田生态系统,2004—2006年和2014—2016年降水、地表水、地下水pH和矿化度的监测数据,分析中国典型农田生态系统10年间pH和矿化度的变化特征.结果表明,红壤丘陵区降水、地表水、地下水pH最低.10年间桃源、千烟洲降水pH显著降低,且2014—2016年pH5.60,为酸沉降;地表水pH为红壤丘陵区(6.33—6.89)低于其余地区(7.61—8.19),10年间桃源、海伦地表水pH降低1.39和0.35,而鹰潭、千烟洲地表水pH升高0.77和1.19;地下水pH为南方红壤丘陵区(5.55—7.45)、东北平原(6.71—7.46)低于其余地区(7.62—8.27).10年间栾城地下水pH降低0.60,而盐亭、千烟洲地下水pH增加0.47和0.78;地表水矿化度为黄淮海平原黄土高原东北平原长江三角洲川中丘陵红壤丘陵区.其中禹城(936—1183 mg·L~(-1))最高,鹰潭和千烟洲最低(25—87 mg·L~(-1)).10年间桃源和千烟洲地表水矿化度降低138 mg·L~(-1)和62 mg·L~(-1),其余农田生态系统变化不显著;地下水矿化度禹城(1594—2094 mg·L~(-1))最高,为Ⅳ类地下水(1000—2000 mg·L~(-1));封丘、栾城、安塞、常熟、盐亭、沈阳(319—750 mg·L~(-1))其次,为Ⅲ类(500—1000 mg·L~(-1))或Ⅱ类(300—500 mg·L~(-1));其余生态系统达Ⅰ类(300 mg·L~(-1))地下水标准.10年间禹城地下水矿化度增加500 mg·L~(-1),沈阳、长武、盐亭、千烟洲、常熟站、桃源降低102—384 mg·L~(-1).不同空间格局、地质结构差异、化石燃料燃烧、人类活动(耕作、施肥、灌溉)是造成农田生态系统各水体pH和矿化度变化的主要原因.本研究结果为生态系统水体酸碱度、矿化度评估及其长期动态变化提供数据依据.     

动胶菌接触氧化法处理含油废水的工艺设计基础

根据动胶菌接触氧化法处理含油废水中试结果，为日处理１ ０００ ｍ３ 含油废水的生物接触氧化池进行了工艺设计，按负荷法（ 二种） 和降解动力学模型（ 三种） 进行了池容的计算，评价了它们的合理性．发现，其中以中试为基础的三种计算方法：一种降解动力学模型（ 据中试结果计算油去污系数） 、二种负荷法（ 据中试中填料容积负荷、从中试扩大为生产规模的入流流量） 较为合理，可作为设计池容的推荐方法．     

基于多元统计技术的赣江沉积物重金属污染评价

赣江是鄱阳湖重要入湖河流,为了解赣江流域沉积物重金属空间分布及污染状况,本文布设了29个采样点,对赣江沉积物重金属(Cu、As、Cd、Pb、Hg、W、Cr、Mn、Zn)含量和序列组分进行了测定及分析,并运用污染负荷指数(PLI)、地累积指数(Igeo)和潜在生态风险(RI)指数评价沉积物重金属污染程度.结果 表明,Mn、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、W、Hg和Pb的平均浓度分别超出本底3.8、4.1、5.2、3.0、22.7、5.0、11.8、1.6倍.其中,章江(Z)分布较高的Cu、As、Cd、Pb、Hg、W;桃江(T)分布较高的Cr和Mn;赣江(G)分布较高的Zn.所有采样点的PLI值均大于1,表明所有采样点均受到重金属污染;Igeo评价结果表明,赣江沉积物重金属Igeo依次为Cd(3.4)＞Hg(1.7)＞Zn(1.6)＞Cu(1.2)＞Mn(1.0)＞As(0.4)＞W(0.3)＞Pb(-0.1)＞Cr(-3.7);其中Cd的污染程度最高,Zn、Hg、 Cu,As、W、Pb为轻度污染,沉积物中Cr的Igeo＜0,表明赣江未受到Cr的污染.RI均值均大于150,表明赣江水系沉积物重金属均存在潜在风险,且赣江沉积物重金属污染对鄱阳湖构成严重威胁.     

基于变异性范围法（RVA）的河流生态流量估算

河流生态系统的生物组成、结构和功能依赖于河流水流的天然动态变化特征,即河流水文情势。变异性范围法（Range of Variability Approach,RAV）被广泛应用于评估河流生态系统是否得到维护。将RVA法的思路扩展到生态流量的计算,提出了一种简便、立足整体河流水文情势的生态流量估算方法。该方法使用均值与RVA阈值差计算了生态流量值,为维持河流健康生态系统提供支持。将该方法应用于南水北调西线一期工程中泥曲河的生态流量估算,得到引水坝址仁达处年可调径流量为6.44亿m3,与其他生态需水估算方法的结论基本一致。另提出了可支配系数反映河流流量可调用状况。南水北调西线一期工程计划从泥曲调水8亿m3·a-1,从RVA法的理念来看,该方案对仁达至朱巴河段的生态系统将构成威胁,需谨慎实施。     

山西省城市发展对昼夜环境温度影响

利用1970-2004年山西省71个气象观测站02:00时、14:00时平均温度资料,分析全省昼、夜温度气候倾向率,选取具有代表性的7个城市站和7个乡村站,研究热岛效应对城市昼夜温度的影响.结果表明:(1)近35年来,山西省各站气温倾向率多为正,即呈增温的趋势,但空间分布不均.(2)夜间气温倾向率城市站大于乡村站,白天气温倾向率城市站小于乡村站.(3)城市效应对城市昼、夜增温贡献率分别为-16.15%、33.01%.山西省城市发展对昼夜环境温度影响是不对称的.     

乌江流域水沙特性变化分析

对乌江流域水沙特性变化进行分析,是解决长江上游泥沙问题、提高水资源利用率和防灾减灾的根本出发点,同时可为喀斯特地区水土流失治理和生态恢复提供理论依据.文章通过对乌江流域主要水文站鸭池河站、乌江渡站和思南站的降雨-径流-泥沙随时间的变化、降雨-径流和径流-泥沙的相关性和双累积曲线进行分析,研究结果为:降雨量、径流模数和输沙模数随时间的变化无明显趋势,历年输沙模数是鸭池河>乌江渡>思南.1980年以后由于实施了大量水土保持工程使得输沙模数大量减少.在年均径流模数相同的情况下,1971-1979年这一时期的产沙量要高于1961-1970年.从1971年开始输沙模数相对于径流而言出现趋势性增多,这主要是由人类活动造成.三个站点的双累积曲线变化趋势相似,说明人类活动对河流泥沙的影响,既取决于人类活动的方式、程度,也受制于流域环境条件.     

浅水流动有限体积法/Osher格式的二维水流-水质模拟

应用无结构网格有限体积法 /Osher格式的二维水流 -水质耦合数值模型 ,采用黎曼近似解计算模拟区域水量、动量及污染物输送通量。通过对长江南京八卦洲江段浓度场的模拟计算 ,其结果与遥感卫星图片确定的污染带分布相吻合 ,证实了模型的合理性和模拟能力     

人工湿地中试系统基质中藻类组成的研究

从2003年3月到2004年2月，在水力负荷为600mm／d的条件下研究了人工湿地中试系统（medium scale plot，MSP）基质中藻类的组成．结果表明，栅藻、小球藻、盘星藻、空星藻、纤维藻、舟行藻、小环藻、平裂藻和颤藻属的一些种类在下行池基质各层不同季节均有出现，下行池表层藻类较丰；上行池基质中不同季节的藻类组成中念珠藻和鱼腥藻均为固氮种类，菱板藻、舟行藻和卵形藻属的一些种类在上行池表层出现较多，上行池藻类组成较下行池少．本实验探讨了在人工湿地基质中存在的藻类组成，为湿地除藻机理和评估系统的稳定性提供参考．图1表2参10     

Potential shifts in dominant forest cover in interior Alaska driven by variations in fire severity

Large fire years in which >1% of the landscape burns are becoming more frequent in the Alaskan (USA) interior, with four large fire years in the past 10 years, and 79 000 km2 (17% of the region) burned since 2000. We modeled fire severity conditions for the entire area burned in large fires during a large fire year (2004) to determine the factors that are most important in estimating severity and to identify areas affected by deep-burning fires. In addition to standard methods of assessing severity using spectral information, we incorporated information regarding topography, spatial pattern of burning, and instantaneous characteristics such as fire weather and fire radiative power. Ensemble techniques using regression trees as a base learner were able to determine fire severity successfully using spectral data in concert with other relevant geospatial data. This method was successful in estimating average conditions, but it underestimated the range of severity. This new approach was used to identify black spruce stands that experienced intermediate- to high-severity fires in 2004 and are therefore susceptible to a shift in regrowth toward deciduous dominance or mixed dominance. Based on the output of the severity model, we estimate that 39% (approximately 4000 km2) of all burned black spruce stands in 2004 had <10 cm of residual organic layer and may be susceptible a postfire shift in plant functional type dominance, as well as permafrost loss. If the fraction of area susceptible to deciduous regeneration is constant for large fire years, the effect of such years in the most recent decade has been to reduce black spruce stands by 4.2% and to increase areas dominated or co-dominated by deciduous forest stands by 20%. Such disturbance-driven modifications have the potential to affect the carbon cycle and climate system at regional to global scales.     

Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

Social and Ecological Change over a Decade in a Village Hunting System,Central Gabon

Despite widespread recognition of the major threat to tropical forest biological diversity and local food security posed by unsustainable bushmeat hunting, virtually no long‐term studies tracking the socioecological dynamics of hunting systems have been conducted. We interviewed local hunters and collected detailed hunting data to investigate changes in offtake and hunter characteristics over 10 years (2001–2010) in Dibouka and Kouagna villages, central Gabon, in the context of hunter recollections of longer term trends since the 1950s. To control for changes in hunter behavior, such as trap location and characteristics, we report hunting offtake data per trap. Our results suggest the hunting area was already highly depleted by 2001; local hunters reported that 16 large‐bodied prey species had become rare or locally extirpated over the last 60 years. Overall, we observed no significant declines in hunting offtake or changes in species composition from 2001 to 2010, and offtakes per trap increased slightly between 2004 and 2010. However, trapping distance from the villages increased, and there was a switch in hunting techniques; a larger proportion of the catch was hunted with guns in 2010. The number of hunters declined by 20% from 2004 to 2010, and male livelihood activities shifted away from hunting. Hunters with the lowest hunting incomes in 2004 were more likely than successful hunters to have moved away from the village by 2010 (often in response to alternative employment opportunities). Therefore, changes in trap success (potentially related to biological factors) were interacting with system‐level changes in hunter number and composition (related to external socioeconomic factors) to produce a relatively static overall offtake. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the small‐scale context of hunting to correctly interpret changes or apparent stasis in hunting effort and offtake over time. Cambio Social y Ecológico a lo Largo de Una Década en un Sistema de Cacería Aldeana, Gabón Central     

Biosafety principles for GMOs in the context of sustainable development

If genetically modified organisms are to contribute to welfare they must be considered in the context of sustainable development. Biosafety implies considering the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development. These dimensions can be interpreted through the principles of precaution, polluter pays and public participation. In this article, these key biosafety principles are operationalised and ways of implementing them in society are discussed. A comparison is made between the principles and the present EU law for deliberate release of GMOs. It is concluded that several improvements in EU policy are necessary to ensure sustainable development really is promoted.     

Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions.

Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska, the western Gulf of Alaska and eastern Aleutians show a similar pattern of declining pup fraction with no increase in the juvenile, or pre-breeding, fraction. This suggests that declining birth rate may be a problem for western Steller sea lions across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Aleutian Islands.     

Trend analyses of hierarchical pin-point cover data

The use of state-space models for analyzing longitudinal hierarchical pin-point plant cover data is demonstrated. The main advantages of using a state-space model are (1) that the observed variance is separated into sampling variance and the more interesting structural variance which are needed for quantifying prediction uncertainty, (2) that missing values or an unbalanced sampling design readily may be accounted for, and (3) that the structural equation easily may be expanded and made as complex as necessary for modeling longitudinal pin-point cover data, thus allowing the incorporation of the most important ecological processes in the state-space model without technical difficulties. Typically, there is considerable spatial variation in plant abundance, and this variation is modeled using the Pólya-Eggenberger distribution (a generalization of the beta-binomial distribution). To illustrate this method, longitudinal hierarchical pin-point data of Erica tetralix in wet Danish heathlands were analyzed, including and excluding autocorrelation and an environmental covariable in the state-space model. The pin-point plant cover data showed a significant decrease in the plant cover of E. tetralix in the period from 2004 to 2009, with an annual decrease of about 10% in the logit-transformed cover. The distribution of predicted plant cover at a given site the following year was calculated, including and excluding the information of an environmental covariable.     

Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20‐year trends in captive collections

Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence‐based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed.     

Chaotic genetic patchiness and high relatedness of a poecilogonous polychaete in a heterogeneous estuarine landscape

The genetic structure of benthic marine invertebrates is often described as “chaotic” when genetic structure cannot be explained and barriers to dispersal and gene flow cannot be identified. Here, chaotic patterns of genetic structure for the polychaete Pygospio elegans (Claparède) sampled at 16 locations from the heterogeneous Isefjord–Roskilde Fjord estuary complex in Denmark were found. There was no isolation by distance, and the geography of the estuary complex did not seem to pose a barrier to dispersal and gene flow in this species. We investigated whether characteristics of the environment could be related to the genetic structure and possibly restrict gene flow in this species. Additionally, since P. elegans is poecilogonous, producing larvae with different pelagic developmental periods, we investigated whether observed developmental modes in the samples might clarify the genetic patterns. None of the tested factors explained the population genetic structure. However, a high degree of relatedness among individuals in almost all samples was found. Samples with a larger percentage of young individuals had more related individuals, suggesting that different cohorts could be comprised of individuals with different degrees of relatedness. Relatedness within a site could be increased by limited larval dispersal, collective dispersal of related larvae, sweepstakes reproductive success, or asexual reproduction, but distinguishing between these requires further study. Using a “seascape genetics” approach allowed us to investigate some of the numerous potential factors that could influence population genetic structure in a poecilogonous species.     

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data.

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.