政府在环保产业发展中的地位和作用

环保产业是保护环境,实施可持续发展战略的重要物质基础和技术保障,是我国未来的投资重点以及最具潜力的经济增长点之一.根据目前我国环保产业发展的现状,深入剖析了我国环保产业发展中存在的问题及其影响因素,提出了政府作为环保市场的重要主体,应在加快环境法律制度创新、环境科技体制改革、促进产业管理的规范化和投资的多元化以及环保企业的集团化方面充分发挥其主导作用.     

Suggested policies to encourage coalbed methane development in China

The development of coalbed methane in the People's Republic of China has been selected by the Ministry of Coal Industry as a key strategic project within the coal industry. However, before the recovery of coalbed methane can reach its full economic potential, a number of constraints need to be overcome. Such constraints include the lack of policy framework, and of capital for project investments and equipment. Also needed is additional information on and experience with relevant technologies. Market mechanisms in China are not yet perfected during this initial period of transition to a market economy. In particular, artificially low gas prices and difficulties with repatriation of profits, discourage foreign direct investment and joint ventures. This paper examines internationally adopted, or proposed, policies that promote coalbed methane recovery; it then describes international activities that promote coalbed methane development in China; and finally presents China's options particularly suitable for expanding coalbed methane development .     

我国ESG投资基金发展趋势分析与展望

ESG投资作为基于企业社会价值投资的投资策略,已逐渐成为国际投资市场的焦点。国内ESG投资尚处于快速发展阶段,市场规律研究及监管机制建设尚处于探索发展阶段。本文系统分析了我国当前ESG投资实践发展进展及其创新,剖析了ESG投资基金相关政策进展、发展方向,以及ESG投资基金行业发展面临的关键问题,提出了促进投资理念渗透、提升信息披露质量、加快投资方式创新等对策建议,并就探索统一估值体系、深化ESG货币化测量研究等进行了展望。     

Assessing the value of CO2 capture ready in new-build pulverised coal-fired power plants in China

Making new plants CO₂ capture ready (CCR) would enable them to retrofit to capture CO₂ at a later date at lower cost when the appropriate policy and/or economic drivers are in place. In order to understand the economic value and investment characteristics of making new plants CCR in China, a typical 600 MW pulverised coal-fired ultra-supercritical power plant, locating in Guangdong province, was examined. Combined with an engineering assessment, costs were estimated for different CCR scenarios. To analyze CCR investment opportunities, the paper applies a cash flow model for valuing capture options and CCR investment. Results were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation, based on engineering surveys and an IEA GHG CCR study, as well as plant performance information and expert projections on carbon prices, coal prices and electricity prices.CCR investments are justified by factors such as higher retrofitting probabilities, lower early closure probabilities and fair economic return. However, the economic case for CCR largely depends on two factors: (a) whether the original plant is retrofittable without CCR; and (b) the type of investments made, for example, investments essential to CCR tend to be more economic than additional non-essential CCR features such as clutched low pressure turbines. The carbon price and discount rate were found to have significant impacts on the economics of CCR. Overall, it appears that the value of the ‘capture options’ that CCR generates for retrofitting CCS is significant, and so could justify a modest CCR investment, even assuming the original plant is retrofittable without CCR. It was also found the value of CCR might be significantly understated if the range of potential retrofitting dates is artificially constrained.     

我国土壤修复产业的资金瓶颈及对策分析

我国土壤修复产业市场潜力巨大,但资金投入不足、来源单一以及分配不合理等问题引起的资金匮乏一直是困扰该产业发展的最主要瓶颈。现行的相关土壤环境保护法律不完善、政策缺失、资金渠道单一以及技术相对落后导致我国土壤修复产业的资金瓶颈问题亟待解决。本文从政府-企业-市场三个层面出发,系统地分析了构建我国土壤修复产业在立法、政策、技术和资金等方面突破资金瓶颈的综合对策方案,对于逐步形成更完善的土壤修复产业,推进我国土壤修复产业稳步前进具有重大意义。     

我国文化和旅游产业融合效率的时空动态演化及其驱动机理

采用仁慈型交叉DEA效率模型、冷热点分析、Tobit模型等方法对2010—2019年我国文化产业和旅游产业融合效率的时空动态演化及驱动机理进行了全面探析,结果发现:①2010—2019年我国文化产业和旅游产业融合效率呈波动上升趋势。②研究期内,文化和旅游产业融合效率呈“东部—中部—西部”依次递减,而融合效率增长率呈“东部—西部—中部”依次递减,但融合增长率都不高。③研究期内,文化产业和旅游产业融合效率呈区域差异性和集聚性。④从文化和旅游产业融合效率驱动机制剖析来看,经济发展、居民消费水平、地区城市化水平、信息发达程度、创新能力、政府政策支持力度是我国文化和旅游产业融合效率的驱动因素,促使效率时空动态演化。     

Rural industries and water pollution in China

Water pollution from small rural industries is a serious problem throughout China. Over half of all river sections monitored for water quality are rated as being unsafe for human contact, and this pollution is estimated to cost several per cent of GDP. While China has some of the toughest environmental protection laws in the world, the implementation of these laws in rural areas is not effective. This paper explains the reasons for this implementation gap. It argues that the factors that have underpinned the economic success of rural industry are precisely the same factors that cause water pollution from rural industry to remain such a serious problem in China. This means that the control of rural water pollution is not simply a technical problem of designing a more appropriate governance system, or finding better policy instruments or more funding. Instead, solutions lie in changes in the model that underpins rural development in China.     

美国环保产业发展政策对我国的启示

当今环保产业作为新兴战略产业在世界范围内迅速成长。美国作为全球环保产业的领头羊,其环保产业的发展离不开政府行之有效的发展政策。美国政府主要通过法律法规、税收、贷款、债券、基金、放宽出口管制、以外交促贸易等政策措施,促进了美国环保产业的技术创新、投融资及国际贸易。借鉴美国政策经验,我国应在环保产业管制政策、技术创新政策、财税政策、国际贸易政策上做出相应改进,以促进我国环保产业积极健康发展。     

Mine capacity and mineral price

The loss of foreign mineral supplies may affect domestic supply and price. To investigate the assumption that prices, a simple mine investment model that relates mine capacity to deposit attributes is used. A test of the model to see how well it approximates industry investment practice illustrates its accuracy. The model suggests that price changes can substantially affect the optimal capacity of planned or existing mines as well as the mineral supply in the USA.     

环保中的博弈论

环境保护是我国的基本国策 ,采取何种措施保护环境使之更为有效是一个值得探讨的问题。应用博弈论分析了排污收费制度的可行性 ,指出此制度的不足之处 ,最后分析了新兴起的产业———环保产业投资中出现的一些特点 ,目的在于指出影响各环保措施效果的因素。     

Market imperfections in recycling markets: conceptual issues and empirical study of price volatility in plastics

The effectiveness of recycling depends upon efficient functioning of secondary material markets. This paper focus on the role that price volatility can play in slowing investment and market development. However, a statistical analysis of the relative volatility of secondary and primary material prices does not confirm the widely-held belief that relative price volatility is higher in secondary than in primary materials, at least at national levels.An econometric estimation of the determinants of plastic recovery volumes in Seattle contributes to the literature in four ways: the use of monthly (as opposed to annual) data; the use of local (as opposed to national) data; the use of an explanatory variable to reflect price volatility; and, the focus on plastics, which have not been examined previously. Some tentative conclusions can be made: the results generally support the principal hypothesis that price volatility has a negative effect on recovery of secondary materials; in addition, and consistent with previous studies, price elasticities are low and insignificant; and finally, policy factors are clearly important. The concluding section treats the economic and policy implications of market inefficiency in secondary material markets.     

我国大气污染治理产业发展因素分析

分析了我国大气污染治理产业的发展现状,根据波特的"钻石模型",重点讨论影响我国大气污染治理产业竞争力的生产要素、需求条件、企业战略和同业竞争、相关支撑产业等发展因素及政府、机会这两大变数对产业发展的影响,提出我国应从政策支持、技术发展、开展国际交流与合作、优化产业布局等角度促进大气污染治理产业的发展。     

我国土壤环境修复咨询服务业发展研究

2019年是《中华人民共和国土壤污染防治法》实施的第一年,2020年我国迎来了《土壤污染防治行动计划》的大考,“十三五”期间我国土壤环境修复产业市场规模接近6900亿元,下达中央土壤污染防治专项资金259.13亿元,主要用于示范性农田和工业场地修复、全国土壤环境调查以及土壤污染防治先行区建设等,资金整体落实情况较好。土壤环境修复产业是支撑我国土壤污染防治目标指标和各项任务完成的重要支撑和物质保障,产业发展状况和水平直接决定了目标和任务的完成水平。本文基于土壤环境修复政策指南和招投标数据库,从政策、市场、队伍、项目、模式、问题、展望等方面系统分析了2019年我国土壤环境修复咨询服务业发展状况、水平与特点,提出了修复咨询服务业发展中存在的主要问题,对未来发展趋势进行了预测分析,以期为全面了解我国土壤环境修复咨询服务市场、开展土壤环境管理和社会投资提供参考。     

Private capital: What impedes its entry into China's minerals industry

The paper commences with an analysis of the nature and status of private capital investment in the minerals industry in China. Based on the analysis, the authors examine the main barriers in terms of the mineral rights market, industry access and investment security that impede the participation of private capital into exploration and development of China's mineral resources. The discussion addresses how to encourage the participation of private capital into mining investment and it concludes that it is of significant importance to ensure the soundness of mineral rights market, impartiality of industry access, and security of mineral rights.     

推动我国消费绿色转型的路径研究——基于多重外部影响因素视角

绿色消费是我国推动经济高质量发展,实现绿色发展和2030年可持续发展目标的关键领域之一。目前我国绿色消费意愿正不断上升,绿色产业迅速兴起;从市场机制来看,绿色消费通过供求关系变化影响经济绿色发展。特别是在建设绿色“一带一路”的进程中,以更大力度在更广范围推动绿色消费正当其时。分析发现,影响绿色消费的因素主要包括消费观念,以绿色标准和认证制度、政府绿色采购制度、税收和绿色激励机制为代表的公共政策以及绿色供给产品和服务的质量等。当前中国消费者的绿色消费观念和意识仍旧淡薄,公共政策制定仍不完善,在引导绿色消费方面的作用仍旧较弱,同时还存在绿色产品供应不足、绿色技术创新不足等方面的问题,影响了绿色消费理念向实际绿色消费行为的转化。对此政府可以通过完善绿色采购制度、推动出台绿色采购法、扩大绿色消费品的财政补贴范围、扩大开放等方式推动我国消费向绿色转型。     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

From exogenous to endogenous development in Scottish forestry: the feasibility of small-scale wood energy enterprise

This paper presents a change in the Scottish forestry policy from the exogenous to the endogenous development approach, and feasibility of heat entrepreneurship based on locally produced woodfuels in the Highlands of Scotland. The cost structure and heat pricing in the case of an 800 kW solid fuel boiler is presented, and the profitability of local heat entrepreneurship is analysed with scenarios of different investment costs and fuel prices. The results indicate that a district heating (DH) system, using locally produced woodchips, could produce heat at a lower price than single-house heating systems using light fuel oil. The profitability of replacing existing heating units by investing in a new district heating (DH) scheme is very dependent on the available investment support, price level of woodchips and substituted light fuel oil, and the amount of sold energy. In the case of an 800 kW DH scheme, and woodchip prices of 14 and 22 €/MWh, investments should remain under break-even points of 280 and 420 €/kW of heating power (230,000–335,000€).     

生态环境导向的开发(EOD)投融资模式创新需求

生态环境导向的开发模式是解决传统生态治理项目公益性强而经济效益较差的重要手段。本研究总结了“EOD+PPP”模式、投资人+EPC模式、ABO模式、政府专项债券和创新型贷款模式等五项模式的特点与应用案例,并从地方政府支出角度剖析了各种模式的适用条件。本文认为,当前 EOD模式的运行难点包括:产业培育周期较长,投资回报不确定性较大;开发存在诸多风险因素,缺少标准化制度体系;金融机构缺乏积极性,配套投融资考评体系建设不足。最后提出 EOD模式创新的政策建议,通过关联产业一体化实施、协同生态价值实现机制、强化风险管控评估、规范应用投融资模式为完善EOD投融资模式创新提供思路。     

长吉图开发开放先导区固定资产投资效益及其滞后效应分析

随着国家对长吉图先导区经济发展支持力度的加大,对其固定资产投资将会进入一个高速增长时期。因此,通过切实提高长吉图先导区域的固定资产投资效益,对化解长吉图先导区乃至整个吉林省潜在的资金风险,实现区域经济的可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。在分析长吉图先导区固定资产投资与经济增长相关性的基础上,通过建立区域固定资产投资效益模型,全面系统地研究长吉图先导区固定资产的投资效益,并进一步建立投资效益的一期滞后模型。研究结果表明,长吉图先导区的经济增长与固定资产投资额之间密切相关,且滞后一期固定资产投资对长吉图先导区GDP增量的滞后效应最为显著。在实证研究的基础上,提出解决问题的有效措施以及具体的政策建议。     

我国开发性金融部门绿色投资价值的气候影响和风险研究

为应对气候变化,我国开发性金融部门探索绿色投资倒逼其低碳转型之路,相应的气候变化对其绿色投资的影响和风险值得深入研究。运用气候压力测试模型、WITCH模型和气候VaR对我国开发性金融机构绿色投资的气候冲击影响、气候风险进行实证研究。研究发现,极端气候冲击会对我国的开发性金融机构的投资价值及其投资表现产生负面影响;我国开发性金融机构绿色债券的票面利率受气候变化影响程度各异,国家开发银行随着气温的上升而增加,中国农业发展银行随着气温的下降而减少;我国开发性金融机构绿色投资气候风险各异,中国农业发展银行绿色投资的气候风险相对较大。研究成果为我国开发性金融部门应对气候变化的低碳转型和绿色投资的风险管理提供决策参考。