An Air Pollution Modeling Study Using Three Surface Coverings Near the New International Airport of Mexico City

Abstract

The dry lakebed of what once was the lake of Texcoco is the location selected for the New International Airport of Mexico City. This project will generate an important urban development near the airport with regional implications on air quality. Using a prognostic air quality model, the consequences of photochemical air pollution in the metropolitan area of Mexico City resulting from three possible coverings for the areas of the lakebed that are not occupied by the runway and terminal building are investigated. These coverings are desert, grassland, and water and occupy an area of 63 km². This study is based on a representative high pollution episode. In addition to reducing the emission of primary natural particles, the water covering generates a land-water breeze capable of maintaining enough ventilation to reduce pollutant concentrations over a localized region of the metropolitan area and may enhance the wind speed on the coasts of the proposed lake.     

Air Quality Impact of Aircraft at Ten U.S. Air Force Bases

Data on visits to New York City metropolitan area hospital emergency rooms for asthmatic attacks were analyzed to identify asthma “events”: days when the number of such visits was unusually high. In the fall season such days tended to occur simultaneously at all hospitals of the study, and thus can be plausibly associated with some environmental agent acting simultaneously throughout the city. Data on sulfur dioxide and particulate concentrations from the 40-station New York City Aerometric Network were used as pollution measures, and a search for a relationship between asthma “events” and air pollution levels on the same day and on the preceding day was made using standard statistical techniques. No relationship was found.     

An air pollution modeling study using three surface coverings near the New International Airport of Mexico City

The dry lakebed of what once was the lake of Texcoco is the location selected for the New International Airport of Mexico City. This project will generate an important urban development near the airport with regional implications on air quality. Using a prognostic air quality model, the consequences of photochemical air pollution in the metropolitan area of Mexico City resulting from three possible coverings for the areas of the lakebed that are not occupied by the runway and terminal building are investigated. These coverings are desert, grassland, and water and occupy an area of 63 km2. This study is based on a representative high pollution episode. In addition to reducing the emission of primary natural particles, the water covering generates a land-water breeze capable of maintaining enough ventilation to reduce pollutant concentrations over a localized region of the metropolitan area and may enhance the wind speed on the coasts of the proposed lake.     

Air Pollution Patterns In New York City

Some preliminary analyses of data selected from three years of smoke shade and sulfur dioxide measurements from the forty air monitoring stations in New York City are presented. The purpose of these analyses is to investigate the spatial-temporal variation in concentration of these pollutants throughout the five boroughs of the city. Air pollution health effects studies in New York City have often used city-wide daily morbidity or mortality statistics and related them to air pollution levels obtained from a single monitoring station. The question of whether readings at one station in New York City can adequately represent the air pollution exposure for the population in the five boroughs is examined in this paper. Some samples of correlation matrices of daily pollution averages obtained from the forty air monitoring stations are presented to illustrate the day-to-day variation in pollution in various sections of New York City. It was found that interstation correlations are not high enough to justify the use of one central pollution measuring station as representative of a large metropolitan area. Sulfur dioxide correlates better between stations than smoke shade; this may reflect the different nature and spatial distribution of sources of the two pollutants. Close proximity of stations, or the fact that they were at similar heights above street or sea level did not necessarily lead to higher correlation coefficients.     

Comments On “Particulate Pollutants in the Air of the United States”

This study was undertaken to identify seasonal and source effects on the par-ticulate contaminants of the New York City atmosphere and ultimately to relate the concentrations of these contaminants to the tissue concentrations in residents of New York City. Continual weekly samples of particulates have been collected at three stations in the New York area on 8 by 10 in. glass fiber filters at a flow rate of 20 cfm.

The sample is ashed with a Tracerlab Low Temperature Asher and leached with nitric acid. Metals analyzed by the Atomic Absorption method include Pb, V, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn. Lead-210, total particulate, and benzene and acetone soluble organic material are also determined.

The data have been related to various meteorological parameters over a one year period to define significant seasonal and source influences, as well as site to site variations. Very significant inverse correlations to temperature are obtained for suspended particulates, vanadium, and nickel at both Manhattan and Bronx sites. Particulates show a less significant inverse correlation to temperature In lower Manhattan. Oil-fired space heating sources appear to account for as much as 50% of the particulates in the Bronx at the peak demand period.

Lead, copper, and cadmium show a general inverse correlation to average wind speed, and a direct correlation to temperature. The latter is most likely due to an inverse relation between wind speed and temperature. The heating season input for particulates, vanadium, and nickel is so great as to overcome most of the dilution effect due to winds. The other elements having more constant nonseasonal inputs, definitely reflect the effects of the wind.

The most significant site effect occurs with cadmium, which has a concentration in lower Manhattan three times that of the Bronx over a period of six to seven months in the summer and fall. The differences observed for cadmium and particulates may be explained by emission source factors which have not as yet been studied.     

developing a practical dispersion model for an air quality region

A series of computer models have been developed to predict air quality in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region. Efforts have been directed at models which have a shorter time scale than climatological models, and which are capable of providing better recommendations for effective abatement and planning, but use input data presently available.

The basic dispersion model for these investigations is a steady-state,nondivergent Gaussian-type model. A modified inventory of SO₂ sources,based on published data for the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality Region, was prepared for use with the model. The basic model has been subjected to various internal sensitivity analyses, in which was isolated the variation produced in the pollutant concentration by a given change in each of the factors that contribute, e.g., wind speed, wind direction,mixing depth, stability conditions, source strengths, and grid size for the area sources.

To date, validation tests of the model have been made against the July and August 1969 data for the ten telemetering stations of the New York City Aerometric Network. Hourly as well as averaged concentrations were considered. Various sets of meteorological data from the network stations and the three area airports, were compared and tested. Additional tests, particularly for the winter season, are needed to substantiate the preliminary conclusions suggested by the results to date.

Considerable insight into the relative importance of model components has been acquired from the sensitivity studies. Furthermore the validation results lend support to the belief that a reasonably simple, practical dispersion model can be developed for the region.     

Measurement and modeling of urban atmospheric PCB concentrations on a small (8 km) spatial scale

Atmospheric transport and deposition of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) is an important problem for ecosystems around the world. Data from several monitoring networks demonstrate that atmospheric PCB concentrations are dramatically elevated in urban areas compared to rural or background regions, such that these urban emissions of PCBs support the regional and global transport and deposition of PCBs to more remote areas. Identifying and controlling the sources of urban atmospheric PCBs is thus essential in minimizing the regional and global transport and deposition of these compounds. From December 1999 to November 2000, gas-phase PCB concentrations were measured at two monitoring locations, 8 km apart, within the New York City metropolitan area, at Jersey City and Bayonne, NJ. Concentrations, congener patterns, and temporal patterns of PCBs differ dramatically at the two sites, suggesting that a significant source of atmospheric PCBs exists within 8 km of the Bayonne site, resulting in spikes in gas-phase PCB concentration at Bayonne that are not observed at Jersey City. The Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS) coupled with the Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport model (HYPACT) was used to estimate that the PCB source near Bayonne emits a flux of ΣPCBs on the order of 100 g d⁻¹. Extrapolation of this source magnitude to the area of New York City suggests that this urban area emits at least 300 kg yr⁻¹ ΣPCBs to the regional atmosphere, similar in magnitude to the flow of ΣPCB out of the Upper Hudson River into the New York/New Jersey Harbor.     

Measurements of Morbidity and Mortality Related to Air Pollution

Examination of total deaths in New York City by day of occurrence shows periodic peaks in mortality which are associated with periods of high air pollution. These peaks are usually associated with periods of low wind speed and temperature inversion conditions which permit air pollution to build up to high levels. Unlike the experience of London, fog is not a necessary part of this picture, and therefore the presence of these episodes is often not apparent at the time to most inhabitants. A characteristic feature of these episodes is the immediate rise in mortality occurring on the same day as the peaks of pollution. A second characteristic is their frequent influence on death rates in the 45–64 year age group as well as in those over 65. These characteristics suggest that if these excess deaths are related to air pollution (as we believe to be highly likely) the mechanism is probably protean and pervasive affecting the course of a variety of different diseases through a basic physiologic effect. The relationship of morbidity in a normal urban population to air pollution is also demonstrated by time series analysis of correlation coefficients. The relation of two symptoms (cough and eye irritation) in a group of 1090 persons observed for three years is compared with two measures of air pollution (SO₂ and particulate density) to which they were exposed. Time lags of up to 28 days were introduced and a constant relationship between air pollution levels and those symptoms was demonstrated.     

Spatial and temporal variability in urban fine particulate matter concentrations

Identification of hot spots for urban fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) concentrations is complicated by the significant contributions from regional atmospheric transport and the dependence of spatial and temporal variability on averaging time. We focus on PM(2.5) patterns in New York City, which includes significant local sources, street canyons, and upwind contributions to concentrations. A literature synthesis demonstrates that long-term (e.g., one-year) average PM(2.5) concentrations at a small number of widely-distributed monitoring sites would not show substantial variability, whereas short-term (e.g., 1-h) average measurements with high spatial density would show significant variability. Statistical analyses of ambient monitoring data as a function of wind speed and direction reinforce the significance of regional transport but show evidence of local contributions. We conclude that current monitor siting may not adequately capture PM(2.5) variability in an urban area, especially in a mega-city, reinforcing the necessity of dispersion modeling and methods for analyzing high-resolution monitoring observations.     

Particle count and black carbon measurements at schools in Las Vegas,NV and in the greater Salt Lake City,UT area

As part of two separate studies aimed to characterize ambient pollutant concentrations at schools in urban areas, we compare black carbon and particle count measurements at Adcock Elementary in Las Vegas, NV (April–June 2013), and Hunter High School in the West Valley City area of greater Salt Lake City, UT (February 2012). Both schools are in urban environments, but Adcock Elementary is next to the U.S. 95 freeway. Black carbon (BC) concentrations were 13% higher at Adcock compared to Hunter, while particle count concentrations were 60% higher. When wind speeds were low—less than 2 m/sec—both BC and particle count concentrations were significantly higher at Adcock, while concentrations at Hunter did not have as strong a variation with wind speed. When wind speeds were less than 2 m/sec, emissions from the adjacent freeway greatly affected concentrations at Adcock, regardless of wind direction. At both sites, BC and particle count concentrations peaked in the morning during commute hours. At Adcock, particle count also peaked during midday or early afternoon, when BC was low and conditions were conducive to new particle formation. While this midday peak occurred at Adcock on roughly 45% of the measured days, it occurred on only about 25% of the days at Hunter, since conditions for particle formation (higher solar radiation, lower wind speeds, lower relative humidity) were more conducive at Adcock. Thus, children attending these schools are likely to be exposed to pollution peaks during school drop-off in the morning, when BC and particle count concentrations peak, and often again during lunchtime recess when particle count peaks again.

Implications: Particle count concentrations at two schools were shown to typically be independent of BC or other pollutants. At a school in close proximity to a major freeway, particle count concentrations were high during the midday and when wind speeds were low, regardless of wind direction, showing a large area of effect from roadway emissions even when the school was not downwind of the roadway. At the second school, which sits in an urban neighborhood away from freeways, high particle counts occurred even though solar radiation was low during wintertime conditions, meaning that exposure to high particle counts can occur throughout the year.     

Lead Concentrations in Detroit,New York,and Los Angeles Air

Lead concentrations in air were measured at 12 sites in Detroit, New York and Los Angeles as part of a program to relate automobile emissions and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in air. The information on lead is reported separately because of the current interest in lead as an air pollutant. Sampling was conducted by means of a large “absolute” filter and equipment contained in a step-van truck. A portion of the filter was macerated in nitric acid and the lead determined spectrographically. The combined annual average lead concentration for four sites in metropolitan Los Angeles was approximately 40% higher than the combined averages of either the five sites in metropolitan New York or the three sites in metropolitan Detroit. Concentrations ranged from 0.4 ug/M³ at Santa Monica, to 18.4 ug/M³ at a Los Angeles Freeway Interchange. Concentrations were generally highest in freeway areas, intermediate in commercial areas, and lowest in residential areas. They were about 40% higher in daytime than at night. Average lead concentrations were highest during autumn in New York and winter in Los Angeles reflecting an inverse relationship with wind speed. Correlation coefficients between lead and carbon monoxide, at all sites, were statistically non-zero with 99% confidence and varied from 0.75 to 0.96. Lead concentrations in this study were higher than concentrations reported by others for Detroit, New York, and Los Angeles, presumably because sampling in this study was closer to traffic. However, concentrations in this study were lower than in-traffic concentrations given in the literature.     

Declining metal levels at Foundry Cove (Hudson River, New York): response to localized dredging of contaminated sediments

This study examines the effectiveness of remediating a well-recognized case of heavy metal pollution at Foundry Cove (FC), Hudson River, New York. This tidal freshwater marsh was polluted with battery-factory wastes (1953-1979) and dredged in 1994-1995. Eight years after remediation, dissolved and particulate metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Ag) were found to be lower than levels in the lower Hudson near New York City. Levels of metals (Co, Ni, Cd) on suspended particles were comparatively high. Concentrations of surface sediment Cd throughout the marsh system remain high, but have decreased both in the dredged and undredged areas: Cd was 2.4-230mg/kg dw of sediment in 2005 vs. 109-1500mg/kg in the same area in 1983. The rate of tidal export of Cd from FC has decreased by >300-fold, suggesting that dredging successfully stemmed a major source of Cd to the Hudson River.     

Spatial and temporal variations in traffic-related particulate matter at New York City high schools

Relatively little is known about exposures to traffic-related particulate matter at schools located in dense urban areas. The purpose of this study was to examine the influences of diesel traffic proximity and intensity on ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and black carbon (BC), an indicator of diesel exhaust particles, at New York City (NYC) high schools. Outdoor PM_2.5 and BC were monitored continuously for 4–6 weeks at each of 3 NYC schools and 1 suburban school located 40 km upwind of the city. Traffic count data were obtained using an automated traffic counter or video camera. BC concentrations were 2–3 fold higher at urban schools compared with the suburban school, and among the 3 urban schools, BC concentrations were higher at schools located adjacent to highways. PM_2.5 concentrations were significantly higher at urban schools than at the suburban school, but concentrations did not vary significantly among urban schools. Both hourly average counts of trucks and buses and meteorological factors such as wind direction, wind speed, and humidity were significantly associated with hourly average ambient BC and PM_2.5 concentrations in multivariate regression models. An increase of 443 trucks/buses per hour was associated with a 0.62 μg/m³ increase in hourly average BC at an NYC school located adjacent to a major interstate highway. Car traffic counts were not associated with BC. The results suggest that local diesel vehicle traffic may be important sources of airborne fine particles in dense urban areas and consequently may contribute to local variations in PM_2.5 concentrations. In urban areas with higher levels of diesel traffic, local, neighborhood-scale monitoring of pollutants such as BC, which compared to PM_2.5, is a more specific indicator of diesel exhaust particles, may more accurately represent population exposures.     

Assessing the effects of transboundary ozone pollution between Ontario,Canada and New York,USA

We investigated the effects of transboundary pollution between Ontario and New York using both observations and modeling results. Analysis of the spatial scales associated with ozone pollution revealed the regional and international character of this pollutant. A back-trajectory-clustering methodology was used to evaluate the potential for transboundary pollution trading and to identify potential pollution source regions for two sites: CN tower in Toronto and the World Trade Center in New York City. Transboundary pollution transport was evident at both locations. The major pollution source areas for the period examined were the Ohio River Valley and Midwest. Finally, we examined the transboundary impact of emission reductions through photochemical models. We found that emissions from both New York and Ontario were transported across the border and that reductions in predicted O3 levels can be substantial when emissions on both sides of the border are reduced.     

An Advective Model for Predicting Air Pollution within an Urban Heat Island With Applications to New York City

A simple air pollution model has been tested for New York City with data from five mornings which were characterized by urban heat island effects. The model is nondiffusive and relies primarily upon conservation of mass. The correlation coefficient between over 400 predicted and observed values of SO₂ mixing ratio was 0.83.     

Injury by Sulfur Dioxide,Hydrogen Fluoride,and Chlorine As Observed and Reflected On Vegetation in the Field

Plants were examined at three different locations in the eastern part of the United States to determine whether damage from air pollution had occurred. This paper discusses sulfur dioxide damage in the metropolitan New York City area; hydrogen fluoride damage near a glass fiber manufacturing plant in the midwest; and hydrochloric acid mist and chlorine damage from a manufacturing operation in an eastern state. The symptoms that developed in vegetation were often found to be similar. Chemical and microscopical analyses were helpful in diagnosing the toxicants.     

Evaluation of PM10 forecasting based on the artificial neural network model and intake fraction in an urban area: A case study in Taiyuan City,China

Primary fine particulate matters with a diameter of less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) are important air emissions causing human health damage. PM₁₀ concentration forecast is important and necessary to perform in order to assess the impact of air on the health of living beings. To better understand the PM₁₀ pollution health risk in Taiyuan City, China, this paper forecasted the temporal and spatial distribution of PM₁₀ yearly average concentration, using Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) model with various air quality parameters. The predicted results of the models were consistent with the observations with a correlation coefficient of 0.72. The PM₁₀ yearly average concentrations combined with the population data from 2002 to 2008 were given into the Intake Fraction (IF) model to calculate the IFs, which are defined as the integrated incremental intake of a pollutant released from a source category or a region over all exposed individuals. The results in this study are only for main stationary sources of the research area, and the traffic sources have not been included. The computed IFs results are therefore under-estimations. The IFs of PM₁₀ from Taiyuan with a mean of 8.5 per million were relatively high compared with other IFs of the United States, Northern Europe and other cities in China. The results of this study indicate that the artificial neural network is an effective method for PM₁₀ pollution modeling, and the Intake Fraction model provides a rapid population risk estimate for pollutant emission reduction strategies and policies.

Implications The PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) yearly average concentration of Taiyuan, with a mean of 0.176 mg/m³, was higher than the 65 μg/m³ recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The spatial distribution of PM₁₀ yearly average concentrations showed that wind direction and wind speed played an important role, whereas temperature and humidity had a lower effect than expected. Intake fraction estimates of Taiyuan were relatively high compared with those observed in other cities. Population density was the major factor influencing PM₁₀ spatial distribution. The results indicated that the artificial neural network was an effective method for PM₁₀ pollution modeling.     

Ozone Transport

Elevated concentrations of ozone, often above the national ambient air quality standard for photochemical oxidants, have been measured in both urban and rural areas of Connecticut. One such episode took place on June 10, 1974. Ozone levels, after stabilizing at values slightly above the standard (i.e., 80 to 110 ppb; Connecticut generated ozone concentrations), rose sharply late in the afternoon reaching concentrations as high as 310 ppb (almost 4 times the standard) in Hartford. The trajectory of the air mass, which arrived in Hartford at the time of maximum O₃ occurence, had its origin in the metropolitan New York area during the early morning rush hour on the episode day. This illustrates that the advective transport of O₃ and O₃ precursors into Connecticut from New York are probably responsible for a significant portion (approximately two-thirds) of the elevated O₃ concentrations measured throughout Connecticut on days when winds are from the south-southwest direction. The fact that peak O₃ levels occur late in the afternoon, several hours after maximum sunlight intensity, reinforces the conclusion that excessive O₃ concentrations developed as O₃ and ozone precursors were generated in the vicinity of New York City and then drifted inland into Connecticut on the afternoon sea breeze.

It appears to be unrealistic to develop a hydrocarbon control strategy for Connecticut in order to meet the photochemical oxidant ambient air quality standard when O₃ and/or ozone precursors ad-vectively transported into the State cause oxidant levels to exceed the standard. The complete cessation of all anthropogenic hydrocarbon emissions in Connecticut would not necessarily assure that the standard would be attained here. The implication is that a regional (i.e., the eastern part of the United States) hydrocarbon control strategy is needed to reduce adequately ozone formation and transport so as to allow Connecticut to meet the current oxidant standard.     

Statistical Analysis of Trends in Urban Ozone Air Quality

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of some statistical methods for examining trends in ambient ozone air quality downwind of major urban areas. To this end, daily maximum 1 -hr ozone concentrations measured over New Jersey, metropolitan New York City and Connecticut for the period 1980 to 1989 were assembled and analyzed. This paper discusses the application of the bootstrap method, extreme value statistics and a nonparametric test for evaluating trends in urban ozone air quality. The results indicate that although there is an improvement in ozone air quality downwind of New York City, there has been little change in ozone levels upwind of New York City during this ten-year period.     

On ground truth in cross-border ozone transport

Cross-border transport of ozone is one of the most contentious issues of air pollution management in the U.S. Yet, both the modeling and observational studies are lacking. Models are normally validated by comparing predicted and observed ozone concentrations. However, proper validation of cross-border transport model requires a comparison of predictions against observation-based benchmarks of cross-border ozone transport. Such benchmarks are unavailable, as published observation-based studies always deal only with a combination of local production and cross-border transport, not a cross-border transport itself. We show how to extract necessary benchmarks from observations of rural monitoring sites near state borders. On example of the western border of New York, we find that in about two-thirds of the most polluted days all the ozone came in a steady cross-border inflow after previously passing over one or more large urban areas to the west. In all the enumerated days with direct cross-border inflow, daily maximum 8-hr concentrations of ozone just upwind of the border were over 60 ppb, with an average value of 68 ppb, just short of the 70 ppb ozone regulatory threshold, information also useful to state air pollution authorities.

Implications: The purpose of the cross-border ozone pollution models is to predict cross-border transport of ozone, so the ability of the model to accurately represent observed ozone concentrations is necessary but not sufficient for model validation. The accuracy of predicted ozone concentrations is not necessarily the same as the accuracy of the predictions of ozone transport. Proper model validation requires comparisons against observation-based benchmarks of cross-border transport. Such observations, so far absent, can be obtained from rural monitoring sites near state borders, as illustrated by the example of western New York.