A Technique for Sizing Electrostatic Precipitators for Highly Variable Fuels

Costs for as many as seven SO₂ control technologies were determined for each of the 66 existing or planned coal-fired utility units in the state of Illinois, and projected operations for each unit from 1983 through the year 2000 were obtained from production cost modeling runs or other data. The Sulfur Dioxide Emission Reduction Optimization Program (SEROP), a utility-specific marginal cost pollution control model developed at Wisconsin Power and Light Co., was used to calculate annual marginal control cost data for each individual utility, and statewide aggregate data. The potential market in emission reduction credits (ERC) was then analyzed for three acid deposition control strategies. It was determined that emissions trading sufficient to meet targeted emission levels for acid deposition control in an economically efficient manner will not occur under any of the strategies unless the desire for utilities to maintain control of their ERCs in future years is taken into account. This can only be accomplished in one of two ways: 1) leasing of ERCs, or 2) a “contingent” sale where the buyer agrees to sell back the ERC after a specified period of time. Other factors affecting the feasibility of ERC leasing are discussed.     

The Cost of Stack Gas Cleaning in New York State

A cost estimating methodology has been applied to an emission point inventory to estimate the capital and operating costs of stack gas cleaning in the manufacturing sector of New York State. The study represents the first major attempt to estimate control costs on a source by source basis for a large region. The various control cost components are presented for each of the twenty manufacturing industry groups and the usefulness of the estimates for an abatement planning model is outlined.

In recent years a number of heroic efforts have been made to estimate the cost of air pollution abatement on a national or regional basis. Unfortunately, these studies have relied almost entirely upon emission factors, cost engineering functions, pilot plant operations, and average or ideal firms, because of the paucity of primary data.^1-6

In the estimates of capital and operating costs presented below, an attempt has been made to improve on previous research by making extensive use of primary data. The data were taken from an emission inventory of over 20,000 sources of air contamination in New York State. A cost estimating methodology was applied to engineering parameters of existing control operations on a source by source basis. The results have been aggregated to the two-digit SIC level.     

Conjunctive Use of Models to Design Cost-Effective Ozone Control Strategies

Abstract

The management of tropospheric ozone (O₃) is particularly difficult. The formulation of emission control strategies requires considerable information including: (1) emission inventories, (2) available control technologies, (3) meteorological data for critical design episodes, and (4) computer models that simulate atmospheric transport and chemistry. The simultaneous consideration of this information during control strategy design can be exceedingly difficult for a decision-maker. Traditional management approaches do not explicitly address cost minimization. This study presents a new approach for designing air quality management strategies; a simple air quality model is used conjunctively with a complex air quality model to obtain low-cost management strategies. A simple air quality model is used to identify potentially good solutions, and two heuristic methods are used to identify cost-effective control strategies using only a small number of simple air quality model simulations. Subsequently, the resulting strategies are verified and refined using a complex air quality model. The use of this approach may greatly reduce the number of complex air quality model runs that are required. An important component of this heuristic design framework is the use of the simple air quality model as a screening and exploratory tool. To achieve similar results with the simple and complex air quality models, it may be necessary to “tweak” or calibrate the simple model. A genetic algorithm-based optimization procedure is used to automate this tweaking process. These methods are demonstrated to be computationally practical using two realistic case studies, which are based on data from a metropolitan region in the United States.     

Conjunctive use of models to design cost-effective ozone control strategies

The management of tropospheric ozone (O3) is particularly difficult. The formulation of emission control strategies requires considerable information including: (1) emission inventories, (2) available control technologies, (3) meteorological data for critical design episodes, and (4) computer models that simulate atmospheric transport and chemistry. The simultaneous consideration of this information during control strategy design can be exceedingly difficult for a decision-maker. Traditional management approaches do not explicitly address cost minimization. This study presents a new approach for designing air quality management strategies; a simple air quality model is used conjunctively with a complex air quality model to obtain low-cost management strategies. A simple air quality model is used to identify potentially good solutions, and two heuristic methods are used to identify cost-effective control strategies using only a small number of simple air quality model simulations. Subsequently, the resulting strategies are verified and refined using a complex air quality model. The use of this approach may greatly reduce the number of complex air quality model runs that are required. An important component of this heuristic design framework is the use of the simple air quality model as a screening and exploratory tool. To achieve similar results with the simple and complex air     

Status of the DOE/GEESI In-Duct Scrubbing Pilot Study

The recent promulgation of stack height regulations and possible changes in the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for sulfur dioxide and the associated dispersion model methodologies, could require older power plants to develop new compliance strategies and upgrade emission control systems. In such situations, an inexpensive, moderate removal efficiency flue gas desulfurization technology could maintain the cost effectiveness of these plants. Such a technology was selected by the Department of Energy for demonstration in its Acid Rain Precursor Control Technology Initiative. The process applies the rotary atomizer techniques developed for lime slurry dry flue gas desulfurization spray absorbers, and utilizes existing ductwork and particulate collectors. This induct scrubbing technology is anticipated to result in a dry desulfurization process of moderate removal efficiency. The critical elements for successful application are (i) adequate mixing for efficient reactant contact, (ii) sufficient residence time to produce a non-wetting product, and (iii) appropriate ductwork cross sectional areas to prevent deposition of reaction products before drying. The ductwork in many older power plants, previously modified to meet 1970 Clean Air Act requirements for particulate control, usually meets these criteria. A pilot study of the process is now in design-construct phase. Testing will start in 1987 and determine conditions under which the technology would be a cost effective approach to meeting emission reduction design criteria     

Determining the Costs of Air Pollution Control

A general procedure has been described that can be followed for estimating the cost of reducing air pollution emissions within a metropolitan region. The six step procedure examines emission inventories, regional trends, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness. The procedure is illustrated for one emission source in the Delaware Valley. By application of “feasible controls,” automobile emissions were shown to be reduced from 4.5 billion pounds per year in the Region during 1968 to 1.5 billion pounds in the year 2000. Annual control costs during the same period will increase from $30 million to over $300 million per year. This represents a cost increase from $15 per registered vehicle in 1968 to about $58 per vehicle per year in 2000. A method was illustrated for determining minimum cost to achieve any desired degree of emission reduction where alternate feasible control schemes are available. This method is especially useful where the allocation of scarce resources is involved. The general procedure is applicable to any number of pollutants and emission sources, and may be useful for calculations in any metropolitan area. The objectives of the present study are to apply this method to other sources within the Delaware Valley and to determine total regional costs for various levels of emission reduction. As one example of a practical application for this type of analysis, the economic impact of regulatory schemes can be evaluated on a cost-effectiveness basis     

Reducing Air Pollutant Emissions at Airports by Controlling Aircraft Ground Operations

Potential reductions in air pollutant emissions were determined for four strategies to control aircraft ground operations at two case study airports, Los Angeles and San Francisco International Airports. Safety, cost, and fuel savings associated with strategy implementation were examined.

Two strategies, aircraft towing and shutdown of one engine during taxi operations, provided significant emission reductions. However, there are a number of safety problems associated with aircraft towing. The shutdown of one engine while taxiing was found to be the most viable strategy because of substantial emission reductions, cost benefits resulting from fuel savings, and no apparent safety problems.     

Multi-criteria analysis for PM10 planning

To implement sound air quality policies, Regulatory Agencies require tools to evaluate outcomes and costs associated to different emission reduction strategies. These tools are even more useful when considering atmospheric PM10 concentrations due to the complex nonlinear processes that affect production and accumulation of the secondary fraction of this pollutant. The approaches presented in the literature (Integrated Assessment Modeling) are mainly cost-benefit and cost-effective analysis. In this work, the formulation of a multi-objective problem to control particulate matter is proposed. The methodology defines: (a) the control objectives (the air quality indicator and the emission reduction cost functions); (b) the decision variables (precursor emission reductions); (c) the problem constraints (maximum feasible technology reductions). The cause-effect relations between air quality indicators and decision variables are identified tuning nonlinear source–receptor models. The multi-objective problem solution provides to the decision maker a set of not-dominated scenarios representing the efficient trade-off between the air quality benefit and the internal costs (emission reduction technology costs). The methodology has been implemented for Northern Italy, often affected by high long-term exposure to PM10. The source–receptor models used in the multi-objective analysis are identified processing long-term simulations of GAMES multiphase modeling system, performed in the framework of CAFE-Citydelta project.     

Cooperation control strategies for China’s cross-region pollution in a lake basin based on green reduction cost

The cross-region water pollution issue has always been the widespread concern around the world. It becomes especially critical for China due to the imbalance relates to environmental costs that have accompanied rapid growth of economy. Though the government makes great efforts to improve it, the potential for water pollution conflict is still great. We consider the problem of determining combined control strategies for China’s cross-region lake pollution based on the environmental green costs. The problem is first formulated as a generalized bilevel mathematical program where the upper level consists in each region that reduces environmental green costs including three parts: the reduction cost, pollution permit trade cost and cost of environment damage, while the lower level is represented by pollution permit equilibrium market. Finally, we take an empirical analysis in Taihu lake. The numerical study shows that the minimum costs of both total and regional are obviously superior to the current processing costs, which provides theoretical basis for the price of emission permits.

Implications: Today, China’s rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth has come at a very high cost, as real estate prices have skyrocketed, the wealth gap has widened, and environmental pollution has worsened. China’s central government is urged to correct the GDP-oriented performance evaluation system that is used to judge administrative region leaders. The cross-region water pollution issue has become a troubling issue that urgently needs to be resolved in China. This paper will not only actively aid efforts to govern Lake Taihu and other cross-region valleys, but it will also provide a supplement for theoretical research on cross-region pollution issues.     

An Appraisal of Epidemiologic Data Concerning the Effect of Oxidants,Nitrogen Dioxide and Hydrocarbons upon Human Populations

A procedure is developed for determining costs to reduce air pollution emissions in a metropolitan area. Methods are. sufficiently general to be applicable in any region and sufficiently comprehensive to include analysis of all major sources, future trends, control limitations, and other factors of importance in a dynamic community. The analytical procedure examines relationships among emission inventories, regional growth, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness.

The cost analysis procedure is tested by application to the Delaware Valley. Costs are determined for reducing emissions to various levels between the years 1960 and 2000. Emissions from private automobiles are projected to decrease below the 1960 emission rate by 1980, at a cost of 150 million dollars per year. Stationary source emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulates can be reduced to 1960 levels by 1980 for 37 million dollars per year if "least cost" procedures are used (selective abatement). Uniform conversion to 0.5% sulfur fuel oil (equiproportional abatement) can effect a similar reduction in emissions for about 94 million dollars per year in 1980. Other cost analysis comparisons are made and projections to the year 2000 are included.     

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network systems for air quality control

In order to define efficient air quality plans, Regional Authorities need suitable tools to evaluate both the impact of emission reduction strategies on pollution indexes and the costs of such emission reductions. The air quality control can be formalized as a two-objective nonlinear mathematical problem, integrating source–receptor models and the estimate of emission reduction costs. Both aspects present several complex elements. In particular the source–receptor models cannot be implemented through deterministic modelling systems, that would bring to a computationally unfeasible mathematical problem. In this paper we suggest to identify source–receptor statistical models (neural network and neuro-fuzzy) processing the simulations of a deterministic multi-phase modelling system (GAMES). The methodology has been applied to ozone and PM10 concentrations in Northern Italy. The results show that, despite a large advantage in terms of computational costs, the selected source–receptor models are able to accurately reproduce the simulation of the 3D modelling system.     

A Preliminary Study of Particulate Emissions from Small Wood Stoves

This paper summarizes the methodology developed to analyze alternative oxidant control strategies of the 1979 Air Quality Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area. The analysis of alternative oxidant control strategies is a complex task, particularly when a grid-based photochemical model is the primary analysis tool. To handle quantitatively spatial and temporal variations in emissions under both existing and projected future conditions, as well as to simulate the effects of a wide variety of control strategies, a system of computer-based models was assembled. The models projected and distributed a number of variables in space and time: population, employment, housing, land use, transportation, emissions, and air quality. Given time and budget constraints, an approach to maximizing the information return from a limited number of model runs was developed. The system was applied in three sequences to determine (1) what future air quality would be if no further controls were implemented, (2) the degree of hydrocarbon and NO_x emission control necessary to attain the oxidant standard, and (3) the effectiveness of alternative stationary source, mobile source, transportation and land use control strategies in contributing to attainment and maintenance of the oxidant standard.

A number of significant modeling assumptions had to be developed in order properly to interpret the modeled results in the context of the oxidant standard. In particular, a Larsen-type analysis was used to relate modeled atmospheric conditions to “worst case” conditions, and a proportional assumption was made to compensate model results for an imperfect validation. The specification of initial and boundary conditions for future year simulations was found to be a problem in need of further research.     

Evaluation of the optimum volatile organic compounds control strategy considering the formation of ozone and secondary organic aerosol in Seoul, Korea

The characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and their annual trends in Seoul, Korea were investigated, with their optimal control strategy suggested. The annual concentration of VOCs (96.2–121.1 ppbC) has shown a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2008, suggesting the control strategy via the “Special Measures for Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement,” which was implemented in 2005, has been successful. The contributions of individual VOC to the production of ambient ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are discussed to assess the adequacy of current control strategies. The contribution of aromatics (C6–C10) to the production of ozone accounted for 38.7–46.3 % of the total ozone production, followed by low carbon alkanes (C2–C6) (27.0–35.9 %). The total SOA formation potential of VOCs was found to range from 2.5 to 3.5 μg m^?3, mainly as a result of aromatics (C6–C10) (over 85 %). Considering the contributions from ozone and SOA production, it was concluded that solvent use was the most important emission source, followed by vehicle exhaust emissions. Thus, the current emission control strategy focused on these two emission sources is appropriate to reduce the VOCs related pollution level of the Seoul Metropolitan Region. Still, an additional control strategy, such as controlling the emissions from meat cooking, which is an emission source of high carbon alkanes (C7–C10), needs to be considered to further reduce the VOCs related pollution level in Seoul.     

Transferable Discharge Permits for Control of SO2 Emissions from Illinois Power Plants

A large scale simulation model was employed in evaluating various policy alternatives for reducing SO₂ emissions from Illinois electric power plants for a broad range of nuclear power capacity addition scenarios. A dynamic simulation of a transferable discharge permit (TDP) program suggests a market oriented management system can assure an acceptable level of environmental quality while achieving typical cost savings of 40-60 percent over a program based on uniform decreases in existing emission standards. This cost advantage can be realized without any major decline in the demand for coal generally or indigenous coals in particular. Several options for initiating the TDP market are evaluated. The analysis concludes that initiating the market by government sales may not constitute a major financial burden on the electric utilities or their customers.     

Preparation and Use of Spatially and Temporally Resolved Emission Inventories in the San Francisco Bay Region

Three regional agencies recently prepared an Air Quality Maintenance Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area oxidant problem. An Eulerian, photochemical model, LIRAQ, provided the technical basis for the plan recommendations. A major LIRAQ input is an emission inventory accurately resolved to one kilometer and one hour increments. The cooperating agencies prepared such inventories, covering 20,000 sq km, for one base and two future years. Several manual and computer-assisted techniques were developed to utilize a variety of independent data bases. Population, land use, employment and transportation data were oganized into a common system of coordinates and units to produce the needed spatial input. Estimates of hourly variation were made by source category based on production rates, fuel use, traffic patterns, flight schedules, and other factors. The result was a series of consistent, detailed inventories which provide a powerful air quality modeling and planning tool. The detail is attained at considerable expense, but the cost is easily justifiable when compared to implementation costs for control strategies.     

Compilation of a database on the composition of anthropogenic VOC emissions for atmospheric modeling in Europe

To analyse and generate air pollution control strategies and policies, e.g. efficient abatement strategies or action plans that lead to a fulfilment of air quality aims, atmospheric dispersion models (CTMs) have to be used. These models include a chemical model, where the numerous volatile organic compounds (VOCs) species are lumped together in classes. On the other hand, emission inventories usually report only total non-methane VOC (NMVOC), but not a subdivision into these classes. Thus, VOC species profiles are needed that resolve total NMVOC emission data. The objective of this publication is to present the results of a compilation of VOC species profiles that dissolve total VOC into single-species profiles for all relevant anthropogenic emission source categories and the European situation. As in atmospheric dispersion models usually modules for generating biogenic emissions are directly included, only anthropogenic emissions are addressed. VOC species profiles for 87 emission source categories have been developed. The underlying data base can be used to generate the data for all chemical mechanisms. The species profiles have been generated using recent measurements and studies on VOC species resolution and thus represent the current state of knowledge in this area. The results can be used to create input data for atmospheric dispersion models in Europe.The profiles, especially those for solvent use, still show large uncertainties. There is still an enormous need for further measurements to achieve an improved species resolution. In addition, the solvent use directive and the DECOPAINT directive of the European Commission will result in a change of the composition of paints; more water-based and high-solid paints will be used; thus the species resolution will change drastically in the next years. Of course, the species resolution for combustion and production processes also requires further improvement.     

Estimation of economic costs of particulate air pollution from road transport in China

Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost–benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004–2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US$ (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM₁₀ emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US $/number and 3584 US $ t^?1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.     

Future year ozone source attribution modeling study using CMAQ-ISAM

ABSTRACT

To achieve the current United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) attainment level for ozone or particulate matter, current photochemical air quality models include tools to determine source apportionment and/or source sensitivity. Previous studies by the authors have used the Ozone and Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology and Higher-order Decoupled Direct Method probing tools in CAMx to investigate these source-receptor relationships for ozone. The recently available source apportionment for CMAQ, referred to as the Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM), was used in this study to conduct future year (2030) source attribution modeling. The CMAQ-ISAM ozone source attribution results for selected cities across the U.S. showed boundary conditions were the dominant contributor to the future year highest July maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations. Point sources were generally larger contributors in the eastern U.S. than in the western U.S. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were around 5 ppb at most of the cities selected for analysis. Off-road mobile source contributions were around 20 ppb or nearly 30%. Since boundary conditions play an important role in future year ozone levels, it is important to characterize future year boundary conditions accurately. The current implementation of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, making it difficult to conduct long-term simulations for large domains. The computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM. If an efficient version of ISAM becomes available, it could be used in long-term ozone and PM2.5 studies. Implications: Ozone source attribution results provide useful information on important emission source contribution categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. This study explains a new source apportionment technique, CMAQ-ISAM, and compares it to CAMx OSAT. The techniques have similar results: ozone’s highest source contributor is boundary conditions, followed by point sources, then off-road mobile sources. The current version of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, while the computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM.     

Acid Rain Emission Allowances and Future Capacity Growth in the Electric Utility Industry

While the new source emission offset provision contained in recent acid rain proposals would result in increasing utility costs over time, the demand for emission offsets from new powerplant units should be satisfied even under conditions of high future growth in electrical generating capacity. This is because the amount of emissions from new generating units will be small relative to the quantity of offsets that could be made available in the emission “allowance” market.

Under the President’s July 1989 proposal, most utilities would be able to reduce their emissions well below their allowance levels via fuel switching, the installation of control technology, or the use of other emission reduction techniques, in order to create more “headroom” for the construction of new generating units. Retirements and decreasing utilization of existing power plants over time would liberate other emission allowances for use by new units. Industrial sources could “opt in” to the acid rain program and provide allowances for new generating units as well. A number of provisions in the recently passed Senate and House bills would make still further sources of allowances available to offset emissions from new generating capacity.

Hoarding of allowances by utilities is unlikely to be a problem since allowances would be distributed to at least 88 utilities in 34 states, and many of these utilities would have the ability to cost-effectively free up more allowances through “overcontrol” than they would need to cover their own future growth. Even a relatively small number of utilities in a limited number of states would have the ability to supply all of the allowances needed to cover new capacity growth from those entities that could not otherwise provide their own offsets. At projected prices of up to $800/ton, the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would be considerable. Moreover, if hoarding did begin to occur, the price of allowances would respond by rising to higher levels and the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would become even more compelling, as greater opportunities would develop for reducing costs (and electricity rates).