An exploratory look at hydrocarbon data from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations network

This paper describes some characteristics of speciated nonmethane organic compound (NMOC) data collected in 1994 at five Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) and archived in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS). Topics include data completeness, distribution of individual NMOCs in concentration categories relative to minimum detectable levels, percentage of total NMOC associated with the sum of the 55 PAMS target compounds, and use of scatterplots to diagnose chromatographic misidentification of compounds. This is an early examination of a database that is expanding rapidly, and the insights presented here may be useful to both the producers and future users of the data for establishing consistency and quality control.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.     

An examination of the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. measurements of ozone precursors in the New York City metropolitan area

In recent years, ambient measurements of hourly ozone precursor concentrations, namely speciated and total nonmethane organic compounds (NMOCs), have become available through the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) program. Prior to this, NMOCs were measured in the central business district using a canister to obtain the 3-hr integrated sample for the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. period. Such sampling had been carried out annually for nearly a decade at three locations in the New York City metropolitan area. The intent of these measurements, along with measurements of the other ozone precursor, NO(x), was to provide an understanding of ozone formation and the emissions loading and mix in the urban area. The analysis of NMOC and NO(x) measurements shows a downward trend in the case of NMOC. In addition, we compared the canister-based NMOC concentrations with data obtained from the PAMS program for the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. period. Analysis of the NMOC concentrations reveals poor spatial correlation between the various monitors, reflecting the effect of localized emissions. This suggests that NMOC measurements made at a single location cannot be viewed as representative of the entire region. On the other hand, correlations were found to be higher among the NO(x) monitors, indicating the commonality of emission     

Determination of Motor Vehicle Profiles for Non-Methane Organic Compounds in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

ABSTRACT

Non-methane organic compound (NMOC) profiles for on-road motor vehicle emissions were measured in a downtown tunnel and parking garages in Mexico City during 1996. Hydrocarbon samples from the tunnel and ambient air samples (C2-C12) were collected using stainless steel canisters, and carbonyl compounds were collected using 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine (DNPH) impregnated cartridges. Canister samples were analyzed by gas chromatog-raphy/flame ionization detection (GC/FID) to ascertain detailed hydrocarbon composition. DNPH samples were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). NMOC source profiles were quantified for evaporative emissions from refueling, cold start, and hot soak, and on-road operating conditions. The ultimate purpose will be to determine the apportionment of ambient NMOC concentrations using the Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) model. The tunnel profile contained 42.3 ppbC% of alkanes, 20.6 ppbC% of unsaturated compounds, and 22.4 ppbC% of aromatics. The most abundant species were acetylene with 7.22 ppbC%, followed by ipentane with 5.69 ppbC%, and toluene with 5.42 ppbC%. These results were compared with those from studies in the United States. The cold start profile was found to be similar to the tunnel profile, although there were differences in the content of acetylene, isopentane, and oxygenates. The abundance of saturated NMOC in the hot soak profile was similar to gasoline head space profiles; it was also much larger than saturated NMOC in the roadway profile.     

NMOC,ozone, and organic aerosol in the southeastern United States, 1999–2007: 1. Spatial and temporal variations of NMOC concentrations and composition in Atlanta,Georgia

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted from anthropogenic and natural (biogenic) sources into the atmosphere. Characterizing their ambient mixing ratios or concentrations is a challenge because VOCs comprise hundreds of species, and accurate measurements are difficult. Long-term hourly and daily-resolution data have been collected in the metropolitan area of Atlanta, Georgia, a major city dominated by motor vehicle emissions. A series of observations of daily, speciated C₂–C₁₀ non-methane organic compounds (NMOC) and oxygenated hydrocarbons (OVOC) in mid-town Atlanta (Jefferson Street, JST) are compared with data from three urban-suburban sites and a nearby non-urban site. Annual-average mixing ratios of NMOC and OVOC at JST declined from 1999 through 2007. Downward trends in NMOC, CO, and NO_y corroborate expected emission changes as reflected in emission inventories for Atlanta’s Fulton County. Comparison of the JST NMOC composition with data from roadside and tunnel sampling reveals similarities to motor vehicle dominated samples. The JST annual average VOC-OH reactivities from 1999 to 2007 were relatively constant compared with the decline in annual-average NMOC mixing ratios. Mean reactivity at JST, in terms of concentration*k_OH, was approximately 40% alkenes, 22% aromatics, 16% isoprene and 6% other biogenics, 13% C₇–C₁₀ alkanes and 3% C₂-C₆ alkanes, indicating that biogenic NMOCs are important but not dominant contributors to the urban reactive NMOC mix. In contrast, isoprene constituted ～50% of the VOC-OH reactivities at two non-urban sites. Ratios of 24-hour average CO/benzene, CO/isopentane, and CO/acetylene concentrations indicate that such species are relatively conserved, consistent with their low reactivity. Ratios of more-reactive to less-reactive species show diurnal variability largely consistent with expected emission patterns, transport and mixing of air, and chemical processing.     

Development of Instrumentation for Continuous On-line Monitoring of Non-Methane Organic Carbon in Air Emissions

ABSTRACT

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) is a measure of total organic carbon in an air emission, excluding that from methane. Thus, it measures the total amount of carbon, irrespective of the structure and functional groups in the molecule. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 25 is used for quantification of NMOC in emission sources and in ambient air. This method involves laboratory analysis of collected air samples and cannot be used for real-time measurements. It is prone to interferences from CO₂, CH₄, and CO, as well as moisture. In this paper, a novel method for continuous, on-line monitoring of NMOC in air emissions and ambient air is presented. Detection limits are at ppb levels, and interference of permanent gases have been eliminated.     

A comparison of PAMS and air toxics measurements

One of the requirements of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAA) is that 1-h ozone nonattainment areas that are classified severe or higher category are required to operate a network of photochemical assessment monitors (PAMS) to provide hourly measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) comprising of Carbon number <12 (C2–C12), along with carbonyl measurements at 3-h intervals during the summer ozone season. Often collocated with PAMS are 24-h-integrated canister and cartridge-based measurements of selected air toxic compounds, thereby providing an opportunity for inter-comparison and validation of both sets of data. In this study, we report such a comparison and estimates of trend for benzene, m-, p- and o-xylene, toluene, ethylbenzene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde at Bronx, NY. The analysis shows that hourly PAMS and 24-h-integrated air toxics are in good agreement with each other exhibiting similar trends and that the PAMS with the higher temporal resolution offers information on excursions of the toxic compounds that would be quite useful in assessment of acute health effects. These findings were also found to be applicable to other locations such as South De Kalb, GA; Gary, IN and Lynn, MA.     

Receptor Model Evaluation of the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study Ambient NMOC Measurements

Abstract

Large-scale studies like the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study (SEMOS) have focused attention on quantifying and spedating inventories for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). One approach for evaluating the accuracy of a VOC emission inventory is the development of a chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model for ambient non-methane organic compound (NMOC) measurements. CMB evaluations of ambient hydrocarbon data provide a sample-specific allocation of emissions to individual source categories. This study summarizes the results of an application of the CMB model to the NMOC data from the SEMOS study. Comparison of CMB results with emission inventory values for the Detroit area show that vehicle emissions are well represented by the inventory, as are architectural coatings and coke ovens. Estimated emissions from petroleum refineries and graphic arts industries are much lower in the inventory than determined from the receptor allocation. Under-reporting of fugitive VOC emissions from petroleum refineries is an ongoing problem. Emissions from graphic arts industries are underestimated in the inventory partly because of the broad characterization of the emission factor (i.e., mass emitted/capita), which may be less useful when specific locations and days are under consideration. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of the CMB approach when used prospectively to track the implementation of emission control strategies. While vehicle emission concentrations were unchanged from 1988 to 1993, measurement-based CMB results suggest a decrease in evaporative emissions during this time period resulting from Reid vapor pressure (RVP) reductions (from 11.0 psi in 1988 to 8.6 psi in 1993) and fleet turnover. Changes in emissions from coke plants and petroleum refineries were also seen in the CMB allocations for these sources.     

Nonmethane Organic Compound to Nitrogen Oxide Ratios and Organic Composition in Cities and Rural Areas

The observed ranges in nonmethane organic compound (NMOC) concentrations, NMOC composition and nitrogen oxides (NO_X) concentrations have been evaluated for urban and nonurban areas at ground level and aloft of the contiguous United States. The ranges in NMOC to NO_X ratios also are considered. The NMOC composition consistently shifts towards less reactive compounds, especially the alkanes, in air parcels over nonurban areas compared to the NMOC composition near ground level within urban areas. The values for the NMOC to NO_X ratios, 1.2 to 4.2, in air aloft over nonurban areas are lower than in air at ground level urban sites, ≥8, and much lower than in air at ground level nonurban sites, ≥20.

The layers of air aloft over a number of nonurban areas of the United States tend to accumulate NO_X emissions from the tall stacks of large fossil fuel power plants located at nonurban sites. During the night into the morning hours, the air aloft is isolated from any fresh NMOC emissions predominately coming from near surface sources. Conversely, during this extended period of restricted vertical mixing, air near the surface accumulates NMOC emissions while this air is isolated from the major NO_X sources emitting aloft. These differences in the distribution of NMOC and NO_X sources appear to account for the much larger NMOC to NO_X ratios reported near ground level compared to aloft over nonurban areas.

Two types of experimental results are consistent with these conclusions: (1) observed increases in surface rural NO_X concentrations during the morning hours during which the mixing depth increases to reach the altitude at which NO_X from the stacks of fossil fuel power plants is being transported downwind; (2) high correlations of total nitrate at rural locations with Se, which is a tracer for coal-fired power plant NO_X emissions.

The implications of these conclusions from the standpoint of air quality strategies are suggested by use of appropriate scenarios applied to both urban and regional scale photochemical air quality models. The predictions from urban model scenarios with NMOC to NO_X ratios up to 20 are that NO_X control will result in the need for the control of more NMOC emissions than necessary in the absence of NO_X control, in order to meet the O₃ standard. On a regional scale, control of NO_X emissions from fossil fuel power plants has little overall effect regionally but does result on a more local scale in both small decreases and increases in O₃ concentrations compared to the baseline scenario without NO_X control. The regional modeling results obtained to date suggest that NO_X control may be effective in reducing O₃ concentrations only for a very limited set of conditions in rural areas.     

Speciated non-methane organic compounds emissions from food cooking in Mexico

Non-methane organic compound (NMOC) emissions from different sorts of food preparation sites, were quantified for the first time in Mexico, in order to develop emission profiles for further application in the chemical mass balance receptor model (CMB). Restaurants using charcoal grills and LP gas stoves, “tortillerı́as”, food frying places and rotisseries were sampled using SUMMA^® stainless-steel canisters to analyse NMOC by high-resolution gas chromatography. The results obtained show that profiles determined from food cooking processes have similarities to those found in LP gas combustion, which is the most common fuel in Mexico used for this purpose, although there were differences in the relative composition of propane and butane in both cases. This suggests that, the rates of combustion of propane and butane are different. It has also been detected that propene, a reactive olefin is produced during the combustion process. The obtained profiles of restaurants, rotisseries and fried food show an important contribution of two carbon compounds (ethane, ethylene and acetylene) that can be attributed to the complex process of grease and meat cooking. The presence of these compounds cannot be attributed to vehicular sources since the concentrations are higher than in ambient air. These were also determined from aromatic compounds such as benzene, toluene and xylene in the combustion of vegetal charcoal. The measured concentrations indicate that NMOC emissions from cooking may become an important indoor source of NMOC under crowded conditions in closed places.     

The Effect of NMOC and Ozone Aloft on Modeled Urban Ozone Production and Control Strategies

Carbon bond (CB-III) fractions for non-methane organic carbon compounds (NMOC) measured in the background alrmass adverted into several urban areas in the eastern and southern United States are reported. These, together with ozone measured aloft, were used In an Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) to model urban ozone production and urban ozone control strategies.

Over a range of zero to double the mean of the measured NMOC concentrations aloft (0 to 70 ppbC) and zero to the highest ozone levels recorded aloft (0 to 65 ppb), it was found that urban ozone production and control strategies were relatively insensitive to NMOC from aloft. However, urban ozone production was sensitive to ozone from aloft, while ozone control strategies were insensitive to ozone from aloft.     

Careers in Air Pollution Control Plant Pathology

ABSTRACT

Profiles of the sources of nonmethane organic compounds (NMOCs) were developed for emissions from vehicles, petroleum fuels (gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas [LPG], and natural gas), a petroleum refinery, a smelter, and a cast iron factory in Cairo, Egypt. More than 100 hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons were tentatively identified and quantified. Gasoline-vapor and whole-gasoline profiles could be distinguished from the other profiles by high concentrations of the C₅ and C₆ saturated hydrocarbons. The vehicle emission profile was similar to the whole-gasoline profile, with the exception of the unsaturated and aromatic hydrocarbons, which were present at higher concentrations in the vehicle emission profile. High levels of the C₂-C₄ saturated hydrocarbons, particularly n-butane, were characteristic features of the petroleum refinery emissions. The smelter and cast iron factory emissions were similar to the refinery emissions; however, the levels of benzene and toluene were greater in the former two sources. The LPG and natural gas emissions contained high concentrations of n-butane and ethane, respectively. The NMOC source profiles for Cairo were distinctly different from profiles for U.S. sources, indicating that NMOC source profiles are sensitive to the particular composition of petroleum fuels that are used in a location.     

NMOC,ozone, and organic aerosol in the southeastern United States, 1999–2007: 2. Ozone trends and sensitivity to NMOC emissions in Atlanta,Georgia

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) measurements made in Atlanta, Georgia from 1999–2007 are used with nitrogen oxide (NO_x or NO_y) and ozone (O₃) data to investigate relationships between O₃ precursors and peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in the city. Data from a WNW-to-ENE transect of sites illustrate that the mean urban peak 8-hour O₃ excess constitutes about 20% of the peak 8-hour O₃ measured at the area-wide maximum O₃ site when air-mass movement is from the northwest quadrant; local influence is potentially greater on days with more stagnation or recirculation. The peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in Atlanta increase as (1) surface temperature (T), ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, and previous-day peak O₃ concentrations increase, and as (2) relative humidity, surface wind speeds, and ratios of NMOC-to-NO_y decrease. An observation-based statistical model is introduced to relate area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations to ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, while accounting for the non-linear dependences of peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations on meteorological factors. On the majority of days when the area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ exceeds 75 ppbv, meteorologically-adjusted peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations increase as ambient NMOC concentrations increase (NMOC sensitive) and ambient NO_y concentrations decrease. This result contrasts with regional conditions in which O₃ formation appears to be NO_x-sensitive in character. The results offer observationally-based information of relevance to O₃ management strategies in the Atlanta area, potentially contributing to “weight-of-evidence” assessments.     

The Chemical and Meteorological Conditions Associated with High and Low Ozone Concentrations in Southeastern Michigan and Nearby Areas of Ontario

This analysis represents the first characterization of the photochemistry and transport of ozone in the Detroit metropolitan area and provides a basis for comparing data for Detroit to that for other cities. The characterization is based on a comprehensive set of meteorological and chemical measurements obtained at a site in the urban core of Detroit during the summer of 1981, together with measurements of O₃, nitrogen oxides (NO _X ), and nonmethane organic compounds (NMOC) from rural, suburban, and urban areas in southeastern Michigan and adjacent areas of Ontario.

For the quartile (23 days) with highest ozone maxima (97-180 ppb), the maxima occurred 10-70 km north-northeast of the city on days that were warm and hazy with light southsouthwest winds. On such days there was a marked accumulation of ozone precursors (NMOC and NO_X) in the early morning, as well as a rapid chemical removal of NO _X (NO _X half-life of ～5 h) from morning to midday. The timing of the daily ozone increase across the study region suggests that local photochemical generation in a moving plume was responsible for more than half of the ozone measured downwind. However, there was also evidence that ozone transported into Detroit as part of the regional background was a significant part of the O₃ maxima on high ozone days. The average contributions of photochemistry and transport for the 23 days with the highest ozone maxima were estimated to be 57 ppb and 47 ppb, respectively.     

Weekday/Weekend Differences in OH Reactivity with VOCs and CO in Baltimore,Maryland

ABSTRACT

This study compared the first-order frequencies for OH associated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and CO (hereafter called OH reactivity with VOCs or CO), the product of the VOC or CO concentration, and their respective k_OH value, on an average weekday with that on an average weekend day at a core urban site in Baltimore, MD. The average daytime concentrations were calculated for each of the 55 available Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station (PAMS) VOCs using data from the Baltimore site. The data were sorted in descending order to highlight the important species based on concentration. The OH reactivity with VOCs was sorted in descending order to identify the important species based on the magnitude of the OH reactivity. A similar process was followed for the OH reactivity with CO. The contribution of the significant species to the weekday/weekend difference in OH reactivity was examined.

The OH reactivity with C₅H₈ was the largest among the OH reactivity with the PAMS' VOCs and was the same on the weekday and weekend. The weekday/weekend difference in OH reactivity with VOCs was entirely due to differences in concentrations of the anthropogenic VOCs. The OH reactivity with VOCs was 11% larger on the weekday. When OH reactivity with CO was included, the OH reactivity was 13% larger on the weekday.     

Statistical Assumptions Matter in Data Analysis for Texas Ozone Nonattainment Sites

Strategies for control of ozone aim at regulation of its chemical precursors, non-methane organic compounds (NMOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). It is therefore important to analyze how these precursors vary temporally and geographically. This study finds significant and important differences among four Texas ozone nonattainment sites, Dallas, Ft. Worth, El Paso, and Houston, for 1984, 1985, and 1986 for NMOC, NOx, and their ratio NNR. These differences were detected through nonparametric analysis of variance and Student-New-man-Keuls’s test for multiple comparisons on rank-transformed data. A noteworthy feature of the data analysis is its attention to the assumptions underlying the statistical methods. Classical models based on normal or lognormal theory had to be abandoned for lack of realism. It is demonstrated how alternative models may be applied to yield appropriate, rather than inappropriate, conclusions.     

Comparison of Nonmethane Organic Compound Concentration Data Collected by Two Methods in Atlanta

Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 calls for “enhanced monitoring” of ozone, which is planned to include measurements of atmospheric non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs). NMOC concentration data gathered by two methods in Atlanta, Georgia during July and August 1990 are compared in order to assess the reliability of such measurements in an operational setting. During that period, automated gas chromatography (GO) systems (Field systems) were used to collect NMOC continuously as one-hour averages. In addition, canister samples of ambient air were collected on an intermittent schedule for quality control purposes and analyzed by laboratory GC (the Lab system). Data from the six-site network included concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone, total NMOC (TNMOC), and 47 identified NMOCs. Regression analysis indicates that the average TNMOC concentration from the Lab system is about 50 percent higher than that from the Field system, and that the bulk of the difference is due to unidentified NMOCs recorded by the Lab system. Also, there are substantial uncertainties in predicting a single Field TNMOC concentration from a measured Lab concentration. Considering individual identified NMOCs, agreement between the systems is poor for many olefins that occur at low concentrations but may be photochemically important. Regressions of TNMOC against CO and NOX lead to the conclusion that the larger unidentified component being reported by the Lab system is not closely related to local combustion or automotive sources.     

Application and field validation of a continuous nonmethane organic carbon analyzer.

Nonmethane organic carbon (NMOC) is a measure of total organic carbon except for that from CH4. We recently reported the development of online instrumentation for continuous NMOC monitoring. This instrument, referred to as C-NMOC, uses a microsorbent trap in combination with a gas-sampling valve as the sampling interface. A conventional oxidation/reduction NMOC detector is used for quantitation. In addition to being an online concentrator and an injector, the microtrap serves as a separator that isolates NMOC from H2O, CO, CO2, CH4, and other background gases. Therefore, the C-NMOC is able to handle high concentrations of background gases commonly found in stack emissions and has detection limits in the ppb levels. This paper reports the results of field validation and testing of a C-NMOC analyzer at a coatings facility in the eastern United States. The instrument was able to monitor the process transients in real time, based on which corrective actions could be taken. It demonstrated good accuracy, high precision, and long-term stability.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

The use of conditional probability functions and potential source contribution functions to identify source regions and advection pathways of hydrocarbon emissions in Houston,Texas

In this study, we demonstrate the utility of conditional probability functions (CPFs), potential source contribution functions (PSCFs), and hierarchical clustering analysis (HAC) to identify the source region and transport pathways of hydrocarbons measured at five photochemical assessment monitoring stations (PAMS) near the Houston Ship Channel from June to October 2003. In contrast to scatter plots, which only show the pair-wise correlation of species, commonality in CPF figures shows both correlation and information on the source region of the species in question. In this study, we use over 50 hourly volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and surface wind observations to show that VOCs with similar CPF patterns likely have common transport pathways. This was established with the multivariate technique, which uses the hierarchical clustering analysis to define clusters of VOCs having similar CPF patterns. This method revealed that alkenes, and in particular those with geometric isomers such as cis-/trans-2-butene and cis-/trans-2-pentene, have similar CPF patterns and hence, a common area of origin. The alkane isomers often show CPF patterns among themselves, and similarly, aromatic compounds often show similar patterns. We also show how calculated trajectory information can be used in the PSCF analysis to produce a graphic picture that identifies specific geographic areas associated with a given VOC (or other pollutant). The use of these techniques in the chemically and meteorologically complex environment of Houston, Texas, suggests its further utility in other areas with relatively simpler conditions.