Review of Statistics of Extreme Values with Applications to Air Quality Data Part I. Review

In the field of air pollution control, the rare event is often of more significance than the common event. This is evidenced by the content of air quality standards which define acceptable upper limits of air pollution concentrations and acceptable frequencies with which such concentrations can be exceeded. The principles of extreme value statistics provide important tools for analyzing air quality data in an appropriately significant context.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First the principles of extreme value statistics are reviewed. The presentation is decidedly utilitarian; no attempt is made to derive more than the simplest propositions. The underlying assumptions of the theory are carefully pointed out and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on the second largest value and its relation to the largest value. Exact probability distributions, and approximations to them, are derived in terms of the total population probability function. The more familiar and useful asymptotic distributions and their uses are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper will present applications of the theory to air quality data.     

Evaluation of Episode Control Schemes Through Air Quality Data Analysis

Prediction performance of various air pollution episode models are first compared with that of a persistence model which is based on the assumption that present concentrations persist to a future time. The comparisons are made by computing a correlation coefficient for different lead times between the observed and predicted values, and an auto-correlation function of the air quality data to which the episode model is applied. The persistence of high levels of air pollution is next examined, using existing air quality data, by constructing frequency distributions of air pollution episode duration for various concentration thresholds. Based on the results of persistence analysis, the flaws of currently used episode management schemes are discussed and some alternative episode management schemes are presented. Methodologies and parameters to evaluate the anticipated performances of episode management schemes are developed and some examples are worked out. In conclusion, it is suggested that a combination of episode persistence analysis and air pollution meteorological forecasting could lead to a workable air pollution episode management scheme.     

California Experience with Air Quality Standards

Air quality standards have existed in California for almost six years. They have become an important part of the State’s air pollution control program.

The two principal uses of the standards have been to establish the goals for controlling motor vehicle emissions and to provide a basis for evaluating air quality throughout the State. The standards have also proved to be valuable as a means of communicating on air pollution problems with legislators, administrators, the press, the public, and dischargers of pollutants.

Lack of adequate data on the effects of varying concentrations of contaminants of concern in air pollution is a serious limitation in any effort to establish air quality standards.It is important that this data be obtained.

The concept of employing air quality standards as administrative goals is not unique to the air pollution field but is part of a broad trend to utilize standards for insuring a satisfactory environment. Those engaged in the air pollution field can expect to see increasing emphasis on such standards.

Air quality standards do not provide a magic formula for eliminating air pollution; they are but one element in a comprehensive program. They have limitations and are no better than the data upon which they are based. The standards, however, can play an important role in preserving satisfactory air quality and protecting man’s health.

In using air quality standards, one should keep in mind the comments of H. W. Streeter⁵ on water quality standards—“Let us devise them, try them, revise them, and apply them, but also remember that they are but ’feeble instruments of the human will’ and like all other such tools are made to be discarded for better ones when they become worn out.“     

一次光化学污染过程中O3和NOx的垂直梯度观测研究

为了研究2008年北京奥运会前期污染物浓度变化特征,对北京气象塔3层高度上的大气污染物（NO2和O3）进行加强观测,分析其变化特征。观测结果表明,由于北京奥运会前期采取了严格的空气质量控制措施,NO2浓度相对车辆限行前下降了45.3%,且随着高度递增逐渐降低;O3浓度最大值和日均值有所降低,其最大值出现时间较10年前提前了12 h,且有4 h左右处于相对平稳状态。O3浓度峰值主要是受NO2的控制,O3浓度峰值出现时间提前反映出北京大气氧化效率不断提高。对于观测期间出现光化学污染事件,利用同期气象资料和大气污染监测数据分析,发现造成这次大气污染的主要原因是气象因子：地面多处于弱高压场控制中,大气层结稳定,风力较弱（小于2 m/s）,并伴随着连续高温、强辐射和低湿。     

Air pollution modeling at road sides using the operational street pollution model--a case study in Hanoi, Vietnam

In many metropolitan areas, traffic is the main source of air pollution. The high concentrations of pollutants in streets have the potential to affect human health. Therefore, estimation of air pollution at the street level is required for health impact assessment. This task has been carried out in many developed countries by a combination of air quality measurements and modeling. This study focuses on how to apply a dispersion model to cities in the developing world, where model input data and data from air quality monitoring stations are limited or of varying quality. This research uses the operational street pollution model (OSPM) developed by the National Environmental Research Institute in Denmark for a case study in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. OSPM predictions from five streets were evaluated against air pollution measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and benzene (BNZ) that were available from previous studies. Hourly measurements and passive sample measurements collected over 3-week periods were compared with model outputs, applying emission factors from previous studies. In addition, so-called "backward calculations" were performed to adapt the emission factors for Hanoi conditions. The average fleet emission factors estimated can be used for emission calculations at other streets in Hanoi and in other locations in Southeast Asia with similar vehicle types. This study also emphasizes the need to further eliminate uncertainties in input data for the street-scale air pollution modeling in Vietnam, namely by providing reliable emission factors and hourly air pollution measurements of high quality.     

Coupling air quality and land use modeling within an optimization framework

Land use regulations and air quality standards can be effective tools to control air pollution. Atmospheric transport/chemistry simulation models could be used to develop suitable regulations and standards; however, these models are not as efficient as air quality management models developed from embedding governing equations for atmospheric transport/chemistry into an optimization framework. Formulations of two steady-state air quality management models are presented to facilitate the development or evaluation of land use strategies to protect regional air quality from pollution generated from distributed point or nonpoint sources. Both models are linear programs constructed with equations that describe steady-state atmospheric pollutant fate and transport. The first model determines feasible pollutant loading patterns for multiple land use activities to accommodate the greatest regional population. The second model ascertains patterns of expanded land use which have a minimum impact on air quality. The primary goal of this paper is to explain how air pollution and land use modeling may be coupled to create an effective management tool to aid scientists and engineers with decisions affecting air quality and land use. The secondary goal is to show the types of air quality and regulatory information which could be obtained from these models. This latter goal is attained with general conclusions as consequence of applying ‘duality theory.’     

一次光化学污染过程中O_3和NOx的垂直梯度观测研究

为了研究2008年北京奥运会前期污染物浓度变化特征,对北京气象塔3层高度上的大气污染物(NO2和O3)进行加强观测,分析其变化特征。观测结果表明,由于北京奥运会前期采取了严格的空气质量控制措施,NO2浓度相对车辆限行前下降了45.3%,且随着高度递增逐渐降低;O3浓度最大值和日均值有所降低,其最大值出现时间较10年前提前了1~2 h,且有4 h左右处于相对平稳状态。O3浓度峰值主要是受NO2的控制,O3浓度峰值出现时间提前反映出北京大气氧化效率不断提高。对于观测期间出现光化学污染事件,利用同期气象资料和大气污染监测数据分析,发现造成这次大气污染的主要原因是气象因子:地面多处于弱高压场控制中,大气层结稳定,风力较弱(小于2 m/s),并伴随着连续高温、强辐射和低湿。     

Problems of Relating Atmospheric Analyses to Effects of Air Pollution on Agriculture

Relating of air pollution concentrations to effects on agriculture is hampered by deficiencies in present methods of atmospheric analysis and by inadequate knowledge about how various factors modify the effects. Analytical methods frequently lack sufficient sensitivity or specificity to determine accurately the substances involved. Typical examples include the difficulty of distinguishing among fluoride compounds with loidely differing phytotoxic activity, the serious interference from concomitant air pollutants with the usual methods of determining ozone, and the common failure or inability to detect short interval concentration extremes which may cause acute injury. The interrelationship of pollutant concentration and length of exposure in determining plant injury is poorly understood, as are the modifying effects of environmental conditions and age of tissue. The identity of some of the phytotoxic components of the urban photochemical pollution complex is still uncertain, making it difficult to select appropriate analytical methods. Caution should be exercised in using atmospheric analysis data to predict effects of air pollution on agriculture until these deficiencies in analytical methods and understanding of the problem are overcome.     

Review of Singapore's air quality and greenhouse gas emissions: current situation and opportunities

Singapore has many environmental accomplishments to its credit. Accessible data on air quality indicates that all criteria pollutants satisfy both U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards and guidelines, respectively. The exception is PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm), which is not currently considered a criteria pollutant in Singapore but may potentially be the major local air pollution problem and cause for health concern. Levels of other airborne pollutants as well as their physical and chemical processes associated with local formation, transformation, dispersion, and deposition are not known. According to available emission inventories, Singapore contribution to the total atmospheric pollution and carbon budget at the regional and global scales is small. Emissions per unit gross domestic product (GDP) are low compared with other countries, although Singapore's per-capita GDP and per-capita emissions are among the highest in the world. Some information is available on health effects, but the impacts on the ecosystem and the complex interactions of air pollution and climate change at a regional level are also unknown. This article reviews existing available information on atmospheric pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a multipollutant approach to greenhouse gas mitigation and local air quality. Singapore, by reducing its per-capita emissions, increasing the availability of information (e.g., through regularly publishing hourly and/or daily PM2.5 concentrations) and developing a research agenda in this area, would likely be seen to be a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions worldwide.     

Analysis of the impact of the forest fires in August 2007 on air quality of Athens using multi-sensor aerosol remote sensing data,meteorology and surface observations

Data from multiple satellite remote sensors are integrated with ground measurements and meteorological data to study the impact of Greek forest fires in August 2007 on the air quality in Athens. Two pollution episodes were identified by ground PM₁₀ measurements between August 23 and September 4. In the first episode, Evia and Peloponnese fires contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. In the second episode, transport of industrial pollution from Italy and Western Europe as well as forest fires in Albania contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. Local air pollution sources also contributed to the observed particle levels during these episodes. Satellite data provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of particle concentrations, thus they can be used identify pollution sources. In spite of a few weaknesses in current satellite data products identified in this analysis, combining satellite aerosol remote sensing data with trajectory models and ground measurements is a powerful tool to study intensive particle pollution events such as forest fires.     

A modeling study of coarse particulate matter pollution in Beijing: regional source contributions and control implications for the 2008 Summer Olympics

In the last 10 yr, Beijing has made a great effort to improve its air quality. However, it is still suffering from regional coarse particulate matter (PM10) pollution that could be a challenge to the promise of clean air during the 2008 Olympics. To provide scientific guidance on regional air pollution control, the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) air quality modeling system was used to investigate the contributions of emission sources outside the Beijing area to pollution levels in Beijing. The contributions to the PM10 concentrations in Beijing were assessed for the following sources: power plants, industry, domestic sources, transportation, agriculture, and biomass open burning. In January, it is estimated that on average 22% of the PM10 concentrations can be attributed to outside sources, of which domestic and industrial sources contributed 37 and 31%, respectively. In August, as much as 40% of the PM10 concentrations came from regional sources, of which approximately 41% came from industry and 31% from power plants. However, the synchronous analysis of the hourly concentrations, regional contributions, and wind vectors indicates that in the heaviest pollution periods the local emission sources play a more important role. The implications are that long-term control strategies should be based on regional-scale collaborations, and that emission abatement of local sources may be more effective in lowering the PM10 concentration levels on the heavy pollution days. Better air quality can be attained during the Olympics by placing effective emission controls on the local sources in Beijing and by controlling emissions from industry and power plants in the surrounding regions.     

Nomograms for calculating pollution within street canyons

The Environment Act 1995 has introduced the notion of local air quality management which requires that air quality in towns be reviewed and assessed. There is a need to identify those streets that are worst affected by vehicular pollutants. Such worst cases are likely to be narrow congested streets with tall buildings on each side. A nomogram presented here allows rapid screening of pollution in congested street canyons. The strong dependence on wind direction is reduced to the two extremes, namely wind along and wind across the canyon. Then canyon concentrations are estimated according to street geometry and traffic flow. The nomogram is designed for use by local authorities, is quick and easy to use, and paper or computer versions are available. It is suggested that detailed monitoring or modelling may only be required when simple screening methods predict high air pollution.     

Cleaning of Stack Gases Containing High Concentrations of Nitrogen Oxides

Multistage gas absorption of 1–50% nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen tetraoxide from air with water or caustic solutions can produce colorless stack discharges. The rate at which NO is oxidized to No₂ in the gas phase and the solubility rate of No₂ in water or solution are highly concentration dependent so that reductions of stack gas concentrations of nitrogen oxides below approximately 200 ppm appear to be impractical. High efficiency absorption combined with elevated discharge of the cleaned, colorless gases is an acceptable method of air pollution control for many troublesome operations. Experiences in the fields of rocketry and nuclear energy are cited. Engineering modifications of metal pickling operations have been found especially helpful in producing effective control at an acceptable cost.     

A Cost-Benefit Approach to Air Pollution Control

Air pollution has plagued the urban areas of our Nation for many years, both as a serious health hazard and as a costly economic burden. Users of the air as a waste disposal medium have treated it as a free resource with no regard for the damages incurred by receptors of the dirty air. Unfortunately, no self-regulating market forces exist that will bring this diseconomy into an acceptable equilibrium. An outside regulating force, which can affect abatement of air pollution, is needed to achieve control of air pollution to a level acceptable to a community. A prerequisite of any proposed regulatory action to be applied by an outside force, however, is the need to define an acceptable level of pollution. One means of accomplishing the task is to apply an economic evaluation, in the form of a cost-benefit analysis, to the problem. Previous analyses of the economic aspects of air pollution have stressed only one side of the problem. That is, they have dealt only with the cost of control or the damages caused by air pollution. No analysis has combined both aspects into a meaningful analysis of the overall economic impact. The objective of this paper is to present a technique that can be used to find the level of pollution abatement in an area that balances the cost of controlling pollution with the benefits received from its control. To present a clearer picture of this technique and its results, it has been applied to the Washington, D. C. area to find the optimum level of particulate abatement. This method is generally applicable to any area, in which an air pollution problem exists.     

Characterization of urban air quality using GIS as a management system

Keeping the air quality acceptable has become an important task for decision makers as well as for non-governmental organizations. Particulate and gaseous emissions of pollutant from industries and auto-exhausts are responsible for rising discomfort, increasing airway diseases, decreasing productivity and the deterioration of artistic and cultural patrimony in urban centers. A model to determine the air quality in urban areas using a geographical information system will be presented here. This system permits the integration, handling, analysis and simulation of spatial and temporal data of the ambient concentration of the main pollutant. It allows the users to characterize and recognize areas with a potential increase or improvement in its air pollution situation. It is also possible to compute past or present conditions by changing basic input information as traffic flow, or stack emission rates. Additionally the model may be used to test the compliance of local standard air quality, to study the environmental impact of new industries or to determine the changes in the conditions when the vehicle circulation is increased.     

Author’s Reply

A technique is developed to compute precision requirements for component parts of an emissions inventory to ensure (at a given confidence level) an overall acceptable precision in the estimate of total emissions. Since the emissions inventory is a basic requirement of air quality control implementation plans and provides a valuable management tool for planning air pollution control activities, it isi appropriate to state in quantitative terms the confidence that can be associated with each inventory. The approach reported here uses weighted sensitivity analysis methods to distribute both percentage and physical errors in source class emissions according to their contribution to the total emissions, and utilizes Chebyshev’s inequality to establish confidence levels for total emissions. The analysis has been extended to cover the case where one or more of the error components in a given inventory source class can be fixed by the analyst. The utility of the technique is manifold and several practical applications are reported. In particular, it serves to establish percentage error requirements for source categories to satisfy given error bounds for the overall emissions inventory at a given level of statistical confidence. The weighted sensitivity analysis technique possesses a high degree of generality, being applicable to compute component error requirements for any kind of data inventory which exhibits a hierarchical (tree-like) structure, as exemplified by NEDS Emissions Summary Reports. This work should be of interest to air pollution control planners at all levels of government and to anyone responsible for the air pollution portion of environmental impact statements.     

Another Look at New York City’s Air Pollution Problem

An analysis of the ambient air quality in New York City over the past several years has been made. The various sources of the contaminants are identified and evaluated as to their effects on ambient air quality. Meteorological data have been analyzed to develop insight into the influence of weather conditions upon ground level pollution concentrations. The results of these analyses are employed to indicate the approaches that will be most effective in improving air quality.     

Review of Singapore's air quality and greenhouse gas emissions: Current situation and opportunities

Singapore has many environmental accomplishments to its credit. Accessible data on air quality indicates that all criteria pollutants satisfy both U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards and guidelines, respectively. The exception is PM_2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm), which is not currently considered a criteria pollutant in Singapore but may potentially be the major local air pollution problem and cause for health concern. Levels of other airborne pollutants as well as their physical and chemical processes associated with local formation, transformation, dispersion, and deposition are not known. According to available emission inventories, Singapore's contribution to the total atmospheric pollution and carbon budget at the regional and global scales is small. Emissions per unit gross domestic product (GDP) are low compared with other countries, although Singapore's per-capita GDP and per-capita emissions are among the highest in the world. Some information is available on health effects, but the impacts on the ecosystem and the complex interactions of air pollution and climate change at a regional level are also unknown. This article reviews existing available information on atmospheric pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a multipollutant approach to greenhouse gas mitigation and local air quality. Singapore, by reducing its per-capita emissions, increasing the availability of information (e.g., through regularly publishing hourly and/or daily PM_2.5 concentrations) and developing a research agenda in this area, would likely be seen to be a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions worldwide.

Implications Singapore is widely recognized for its environmental achievements and often cited as a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city. This article reviews available information with the aim to provide a reference for future scientific research of strategic relevance for Singapore's air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation management under a multipollutant framework. However, the limited publicly accessible data and little scientific information prevent a comprehensive assessment of the local air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Singapore's dynamic economy and strong profile in advanced science and technological innovation have the potential to enhance the research agenda in this area, which is not yet well developed in tropical cities.     

Frank A. Chambers

Abstract

This work assessed the usefulness of a current air quality model (American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model [AERMOD]) for predicting air concentrations and deposition of perfluorooctanoate (PFO) near a manufacturing facility. Air quality models play an important role in providing information for verifying permitting conditions and for exposure assessment purposes. It is important to ensure traditional modeling approaches are applicable to perfluorinated compounds, which are known to have unusual properties. Measured field data were compared with modeling predictions to show that AERMOD adequately located the maximum air concentration in the study area, provided representative or conservative air concentration estimates, and demonstrated bias and scatter not significantly different than that reported for other compounds. Surface soil/grass concentrations resulting from modeled deposition flux also showed acceptable bias and scatter compared with measured concentrations of PFO in soil/grass samples. Errors in predictions of air concentrations or deposition may be best explained by meteorological input uncertainty and conservatism in the PRIME algorithm used to account for building downwash. In general, AERMOD was found to be a useful screening tool for modeling the dispersion and deposition of PFO in air near a manufacturing facility.     

Pennsylvania’s Compuiterized Air Monitoring System

The Pennsylvania Air Pollution Commission has developed a regulatory program based upon the control of local air pollution problems and reduction of pollutant levels in air basins. The geographical boundaries of 10 air basins have been established. The Commission’s air basin regulations will provide for the reduction of over-all pollutant levels and for emergency procedures in the event of adverse meteorological conditions. The paper discusses the format and objectives of the program.

In order to effectively enforce the air basin regulations and maintain the necessary surveillance of the state’s air quality, a "computerized real time on-line integrated air monitoring-data handling system" has been designed. The system will incorporate a network to constantly monitor the air in each air basin.The primary objectives of the system are: 1. Constant surveillance of air pollution in the air basins.

2. Provide information on air pollution potential alerts.

3. Aid in further development of air quality criteria and regulations.

The air monitoring network is estimated to include approximately 25 remote stations. Each remote will contain air pollution and meteorological sampling equipment and hardware to telemeter to a central station. The data will be transmitted over leased telephone lines. The central station in Harrisburg will contain the necessary hardware to receive and process data, calculate and display results and permit supervisory control of the network. Output options will include immediate display of edited data, command and alarm information, and presentation of statistical results.

Although the air monitoring system is one of the principle ingredients of the program, the air basin concept encompasses other component systems designed to knit together the entire air pollution control program in Pennsylvania.