Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.     

Industrial pollution and social deprivation: Evidence and complexity in evaluating and responding to environmental inequality

The local impacts of industrial pollution can take many forms and—whilst uncertain in their scale, severity and distribution—are widely recognised. The question of who in society potentially experiences these impacts through living near to emission sources has been little explored, at least in the UK. This paper reports on a study carried out for the Environment Agency, which examined the distribution of sites coming within the Industrial Pollution Control (IPC) regime against patterns of deprivation. Our analysis provides evidence of a socially unequal distribution of IPC sites in England, with sites disproportionately located and clustered together in deprived areas and near to deprived populations. In discussing these results we emphasise the methodological limitations of this form of environmental justice analysis and the crucial differences between proximity, risk and impact. We also consider the distinction between inequality and injustice and the difficult policy questions which arise when evaluating evidence of environmental inequality, including potential grounds for policy intervention.     

“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF FLOODING DAMAGE ON A USA/QUEBEC RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin, located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec, Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods, for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However, a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event, and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends, this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact, what is now considered a 100‐year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten‐year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers, land planners, and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process.     

Public perceptions and attitudes towards an established managed realignment scheme: Orplands,Essex, UK

Where appropriate, managed realignment is the preferred policy option for sustainable coastal defences in the UK, since it provides both economic and ecological advantages. Until recently however, research has failed to address the social implications of this policy option having only acknowledged that communities in general, show reluctance in conceding land to the sea. Orplands managed realignment scheme is the third in a series of case studies to address a variety of social issues, but with a particular focus on the public acceptance of schemes and public confidence in the Environment Agency. It is hypothesised that local residents will be more accepting of a realignment scheme the longer it is in the public domain, rather than at its inception or construction. This paper presents findings from the Orplands scheme and demonstrates that overall scheme acceptance was greater at this site in comparison to previous case studies. Despite this, respondents did not show any more confidence in the Environment Agency and this has been attributed to their general scepticism towards a statutory body and the lack of recent contact between the various stakeholders. It is suggested that the development of criteria for consultation and public participation would facilitate public acceptance of managed realignment schemes.     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

Method for Rapidly Assessing the Overtopping Risk of Bridges Due to Flooding over a Large Geographic Region

Hydraulic events are a leading cause of bridge failures. While these hydraulic events are accounted for in bridge design, changing environmental and land use conditions require continual updating of this risk. For example, after a bridge has been constructed, streamflow can change in unanticipated ways as a result of land use changes, geomorphic changes, and climate change. The objective of this research was to create a screening method able to quickly and inexpensively estimate overtopping risk across a collection of bridges based on the current streamflow conditions. The method uses a geographic information system, nationally available and standardized datasets, and recent regression equations to quantify bridge vulnerability to overtopping for flooding with varying return periods. This screening method could also be used to assist decision makers in updating the Waterway Adequacy field in the National Bridge Inventory, which indicates the overtopping risk of bridges. The method was applied to a portion of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, United States that includes 475 bridges. The results of the analysis, when combined with transportation data for bridges, aid decision makers to assign further resources to complete more detailed analyses of bridges identified as being at risk for overtopping.     

USING GEOLOGY TO IMPROVE FLOOD HAZARD MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS ‐ AN EXAMPLE FROM LAUGHLIN,NEVADA1

A study of the piedmont of the Newberry Mountains near Laughlin, Nevada, demonstrates that geologic information can improve the scientific basis of flood‐hazard management on alluvial fans in desert areas. Comparison of geologic information against flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs) reveals flaws in conventional methods for flood hazard delineation in this setting. Geologic evidence indicates that large parts of the Newberry piedmont have been isolated from significant flooding for at least the past 10,000 years. This contrasts with existing FIRMs that include large tracts of nonflood prone land in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood hazard zones and exclude areas of indisputably flood prone land from the regulatory flood plain. From the basis of the geology, flood hazards on at least one‐third of the piedmont are mischaracterized on the regulatory maps. The formal incorporation of geologic data into flood hazard studies on desert piedmonts could significantly reduce this type of discrepancy and substantially reduce the scope, hence cost, of more elaborate engineering studies and hazard mitigation strategies. The results of this study affirm the value of new Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommendations for characterizing alluvial fan flood hazards and support an argument for mandating geological studies in the regulatory process.     

ARTIFICIAL GROUND WATER RECHARGE BY FLOODING DURING GRAPEVINE DORMANCY1

ABSTRACT: The potential for artificial ground water recharge by continuous flooding of dormant grapevines was evaluated in the San Joaquin Valley of California using the cultivar Thompson Seedless. The study was started in 1982 and was completed in 1985 after three complete flooding cycles during dormancy. An average daily rate of recharge of 80 mm/thy for a 32-day period each year was achieved through a clay loam soil. There were no adverse effects on the grapevines and yields in the flooded plots in any of the growing seasons following recharge periods. Yields were higher in the recharge plots than in the control plots in the last year of the study. We conclude that artificial ground water recharge by continuous flooding during grapevine dormancy is a viable recharge method.     

The Axford Debate Revisited: A Case Study Illustrating Different Approaches to the Aggregation of Benefits Data

Recent debate following the rejection of the Environment Agency case regarding an application for water abstraction at Axford on the River Kennet has focused upon the benefits procedure employed for aggregating non-user benefits which underpinned the economic case put forward by the Agency (although this was not the reason cited by the inquiry for rejection of the case). Commentators have seen this case as setting an unfortunate precedent for the use of economic assessments in such resource management issues. The paper presents a number of highly tractable alternative methods for the aggregation of benefits estimates designed to address the central problems of the definition of a relevant aggregation population and a potential decay of values with increasing distance from a given valuation site. These methods are tested using data obtained from a national survey of non-users of a specific natural area. Results from this application indicate that simpler approaches such as that used at the Axford inquiry may result in aggregate benefits estimates which are very substantially larger than those produced by our proposed alternative approaches to aggregation.     

Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Experience,Exposure, and Concern

With growing urban populations and climate change, urban flooding is an important global issue, even in dryland regions. Flood risk assessments are usually used to identify vulnerable locations and populations, flooding experience patterns, or levels of concern about flooding, but rarely are all of these approaches combined. Furthermore, the social dynamics of flood concerns, exposure, and experience are underexplored. We combined geographic and survey data on household‐level measures of flood experience, concern, and exposure in Utah's urbanizing Wasatch Front. We asked: (1) Are socially vulnerable groups more likely to be exposed to flood risk? (2) How common are flooding experiences among urban residents, and how are these experiences related to sociodemographic characteristics and exposure? and (3) How concerned are urban residents about flooding, and does concern vary by exposure, flood experience, and sociodemographic characteristics? Although floodplain residents were more likely to be White and have higher incomes, respondents who were of a racial/ethnic minority, were older, had less education, and were living in floodplains were more likely to report flood experiences and concern about flooding. Flood risk management approaches need to address social as well as physical sources of vulnerability to floods and recognize social sources of variation in flood experiences and concern.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development: An initiative by the International Atomic Energy Agency

Since 1999, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been leading a multinational, multi‐agency effort to develop a set of energy indicators useful for measuring progress on sustainable development at the national level. This effort has included the identification of major relevant energy indicators, the development of a framework for implementation and the testing of the applicability of this tool in a number of countries. To achieve these goals, the IAEA has worked closely with other international organizations, leaders in energy and environmental statistics and analysis including the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Eurostat and the European Environment Agency (EEA). Also, the IAEA completed a three‐year coordinated research project for the implementation and testing of the original set of indicators in seven countries — Brazil, Cuba, Lithuania, Mexico, the Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic and Thailand. This article provides an overview of the IAEA programme on Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development (ISED) and highlights its experiences and accomplishments.     

Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.     

AN INTEGRATED ONE‐DIMENSIONAL AND TWO‐DIMENSIONAL URBAN STORMWATER FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Flash flooding is the rapid flooding of low lying areas caused by the stormwater of intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs in many urban areas with relatively flat terrain and can result in severe property damage as well as the loss of lives. In this paper, an integrated one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic simulation model has been established to simulate stormwater flooding processes in urban areas. With rainfall input, the model simulates 2‐D overland flow and 1‐D flow in underground stormwater pipes and drainage channels. Drainage channels are treated as special flow paths and arranged along one or more sides of a 2‐D computational grid. By using irregular computation grids, the model simulates unsteady flooding and drying processes over urban areas with complex drainage systems. The model results can provide spatial flood risk information (e.g., water depth, inundation time and flow velocity during flooding). The model was applied to the City of Beaumont, Texas, and validated with the recorded rainfall and runoff data from Tropical Storm Allison with good agreement.     

A Framework to Develop Nationwide Flooding Extents Using Climate Models and Assess Forecast Potential for Flood Resilience

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high‐resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national‐level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100‐year floodplains and estimated 100‐ and 10‐year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these “hot spots” could be repurposed for near–real‐time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near–real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.     

Addressing environmental inequalities in UK policy: An action research perspective

In the UK there has been a serious attempt under the current government to foster policy making which is evidence-based and therefore more likely to deliver its intended results. In this article we consider the types of evidence and evidence making that might be required to build effective policy for addressing environmental inequalities. We draw on our experiences of developing an action research approach to policy making in the Environment Agency over a two year period from July 2002 to August 2004. We conclude that an action research approach is well suited to policy making within this new but rapidly growing area of sustainable development policy and urge further exploration of such approaches as a means of better connecting the relevant research, policy making and practitioner communities.     

Evaluation of US EPA Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program's (EMAP)-Wetlands sampling design and classification

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) will monitor the nation's resources by evaluating the status and trends of selected indicators of condition using a probability-based sampling design. The EMAP-Wetlands program will monitor the condition of the nation's wetlands. The EMAP classification system is an aggregation of the many subclasses of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) classification system. This aggregation results in fewer wetland classes with more wetlands per class than the NWI system. Aggregation of the NWI classification was based primarily on dominant vegetation cover, flooding regimes, dominant water source, and adjacency to rivers and lakes. We evaluated the EMAP classification system and sampling design using NWI digital wetlands data for portions of Illinois, Washington, North Dakota, and South Dakata. Relative numbers of wetlands, total areas, average areas, and common versus rare classes were compared between the EMAP and NWI classification systems. As expected, the EMAP classification provided fewer wetland polygons, each with larger areas, without altering total wetland area. Summary statistics comparing sample estimates to true population parameters (represented by the NWI data) demonstrated the effectiveness of the EMAP sampling design with the exception of rare EMAP classes in the selected regions. Although simple random sampling is inadequate for both large and small wetlands, the EMAP sampling design is readily adapted to provide better estimates for these categories. Aggregating the NWI classification to the EMAP classification provides fewer wetland classes, with more wetlands per class, for EMAP's annual reports and statistical summaries. The research in this report has been funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under contracts 68-C8-0006 to ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc. and 68-03-3532 to The Bionetics Corporation. Mention of trade names does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Derelict land: the case for a strategic approach

This paper examines the rationale underlying the ‘strategic approach’ to the prevention and reclamation of derelict land proposed in research recently published by the Department of the Environment. It outlines the main features and the processes involved in this approach and indicates the form and content of the documentation which might accompany its adoption. The paper focuses upon the tasks involved in the preparation of strategies for derelict land but the principles it examines will have wider application in other policy fields. It concludes with an examination of the practical problems which the adoption of a strategic approach may entail and the ways in which it would enhance the activities of the recently announced Urban Regeneration Agency for England.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

SUMMER FLOODING AT CHICAGO AND POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS TO URBAN-INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: : Studies of two measures of flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area reveal a wide range of floods with the magnitude related to recurrence interval expressions of rain intensity. Minor type floods (in basements and underpasses) usually result from localized heavy rains (≤ 3-hour duration) with return intervals of 1 to 2 years, and more major floods result from rains with return intervals of 2 to 5 years (or more). Urban-factors help lead to increases in warm season rain events in Chicago with 1- to 4-year return intervals. These apparently help lead to 10 to 100 percent more flooding events in Chicago than expected. The range of increase varies depending on locale and type of flood, but the increases in storms should be accounted for in drainage designs.