Water Use Efficiency and Storage Capacity in South Asia by 2050

More than one billion South Asians are affected by water scarcity. Pressure on water resources is likely to grow as a result of population growth, urban expansion, and climate change. This paper assesses the impacts of these effects on the historical hydrological baseline, with particular focus on irrigation. A geospatial water balance model was developed for this purpose based on geo‐referenced information available in scientific public domain databases. Annual water supply and demand for a baseline period 1950–2000 were calculated and projected to 2050 using (1) outputs from 19 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; (2) population projections to 2050; and (3) historical land‐use patterns at the country level. Improvements in water use efficiency and storage capacity were analyzed using the Modified Water Scarcity Index of the baseline and the projected water balance in 2050 at the watershed scale.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

Water Access, Water Scarcity, and Climate Change

This article investigates the approaches of the various discourses operating in the water sector and how they address the issues of scarcity and equitable access under projected climate change impacts. Little synergy exists between the different approaches dealing with these issues. Whilst being a sustainable development and water resources management issue, a holistic view of access, scarcity and the projected impacts of climate change is not prevalent in these discourses. The climate change discourse too does not adequately bridge the gap between these issues. The projected impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problems of scarcity and equitable access unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted and resilience is built. The successful delivery of accessible water services under projected climate change impacts therefore lies with an extension of the adaptive water management approach to include equitable access as a key driver.     

Arctic Climate Impacts: Environmental Injustice in Canada and the United States

The current and projected future physical impacts of climate change are most extreme in the northern latitudes. The indigenous peoples in the North American arctic and sub-arctic rely on the availability of natural resources in mixed subsistence economies for nutritional and cultural survival and thus experience disproportionate burdens with respect to our changing climate. Arctic climate impacts exemplify how global phenomena and activities can significantly affect people locally in remote regions. These impacts are largely consistent throughout the region, irrespective of national boarders; however, indigenous peoples in Canada are better positioned than those in the United States to shape policy in a way that would ensure their adaptation to climate change. Political and industrial activity on national and global scales can have significant environmental, social and cultural repercussions on the local scale in remote areas. Remedies for environmental injustice will thus require strong cross-scale political and institutional linkages.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Predicting the Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise on an Endangered Lagomorph

Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

Using a social learning configuration to increase Vietnamese smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity to respond to climate change

Social learning is crucial for local smallholder farmers in developing countries to improve their adaptive capacity and to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. While it is widely acknowledged that social learning is a necessary condition for adaptation, few studies have systematically investigated under which conditions particular forms of social learning are most successful in improving adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable groups. This study aims to design, implement and evaluate a social learning configuration in a coastal community in Vietnam. We make use of various methods during four workshop-based interventions with local smallholder farmers: interviews with key farmers and commune leaders, farmer-to-farmer learning, participatory observations and focus group discussions. The methods for evaluation of social learning configuration include in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and structured survey interviews. Our findings show that the social learning configuration used in this study leads to an increased problem ownership, an enhanced knowledge-base with regard to climate change impacts and production adaptation options, improved ability to see connections and interdependencies and finally, strengthened relationships and social cohesion. The results suggest that increased social learning in the community leads to increase in adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers and improves both their economic and environmental sustainability. We discuss the key lessons for designing learning configurations that can successfully enhance adaptive capacity and smallholder farmers’ agency and responsiveness to the challenges posed by climate change impacts.     

Changing Human Landscapes Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for Climate Assessments

Climate change is a fundamental aspect of the Anthropocene. Climate assessments are frequently undertaken to evaluate climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Assessments are complex endeavors with numerous challenges. Five aspects of a climate assessment that can be particularly challenging are highlighted: choice of assessment strategy, incorporation of spatial linkages and interactions, the constraints of climate observations, interpretation of a climate projection ensemble, uncertainty associated with weather/climate dependency models, and consideration of landscape–climate influences. In addition, a climate assessment strategy that incorporates both traditional “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods is proposed for assessments of adaptation options at the local/regional scale. Uncertainties associated with climate observations and projections and with weather/climate dependency (i.e., response) models are incorporated into the assessment through the “top-down” component, and stakeholder knowledge and experience are included through the “bottom-up” component. Considerable further research is required to improve assessment strategies and the usefulness and usability of assessment findings. In particular, new methods are needed which better incorporate spatial linkages and interactions, yet maintain the fine grain detail needed for decision making at the local and regional scales. Also, new methods are needed which go beyond sensitivity analyses of the relative contribution of land use and land cover changes on local/regional climate to more explicitly consider landscape–climate interactions in the context of uncertain future climates. Assessment teams must clearly communicate the choices made when designing an assessment and recognize the implications of these choices on the interpretation and application of the assessment findings.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

Risk and vulnerability analysis: A feasible process for local climate adaptation in Sweden?

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.     

Adaptive capacity and climate change: the role of community opinion leaders

The contribution of the informal community sector to the development of collective response strategies to socioecological change is not well researched. In this article, we examine the role of community opinion leaders in developing and mobilising stocks of adaptive capacity. In so doing, we reveal a largely unexplored mechanism for building on latent social capital and associated networks that have the potential to transcend local-scale efforts – an enduring question in climate change adaptation and other cross-scalar sustainability issues. Participants drawn from diverse spheres of community activity in the Sunshine Coast, Australia, were interviewed about their strategies for influencing their community objectives and the degree to which they have engaged with responding to climate change. The results show community opinion leaders to be politically engaged through rich bridging connections with other community organisations, and vertically with policy-makers at local, state, national and international levels. Despite this latent potential, the majority of community opinion leaders interviewed were not strategically engaged with responding to climate change. This finding suggests that more work is needed to connect networks knowledgeable about projected climate change impacts with local networks of community opinion leaders. Attention to the type of community-based strategies considered effective and appropriate by community opinion leaders and their organisations also suggests avenues for policy-makers to facilitate community engagement in responding to climate change across sectors likely to be affected by its impacts. Opportunities to extend understanding of adaptive capacity within the community sector through further research are also suggested.     

Questioning the local: environmental regulation,shale gas extraction,and the politics of scale

ABSTRACT

The exploration and potential extraction of shale gas – better known as fracking – has emerged as one of the most contentious dimensions to local environmental politics in the UK. Local residents and environmental activists have raised concerns about health, noise, ground water contamination, seismicity, environmental amenity, and other impacts of the industry on communities. Despite the complexities of shale gas extraction, an emphasis on the local has shaped key dimensions of the debate around the appropriate location for well pads to the relative exclusion of other issues. This paper draws on fieldwork in Lancashire, UK, to reflect on the political construction of scale in order to explore how an emphasis on “the local” can restrict political debate over shale gas to narrow concerns with land-use planning thereby obviating a fuller engagement with wider questions concerning risk, energy policy, and climate change. It is concluded that a more nuanced conception of scale is necessary for understanding how concerns with shale gas are diminished rather than strengthened through the current planning policy and regulatory regime operating in the UK.     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds1

Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.     

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.     

Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or manage the effects of climate change traditionally focus on management or policy options that promote single outcomes (e.g., either benefiting ecosystems or human health and well-being). In contrast, co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation address climate change impacts on human and ecological health in tandem and on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The article engages the concept of co-benefits through four case studies. The case studies emphasize co-benefits approaches that are accessible and tractable in countries with human populations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. They illustrate the potential of co-benefits approaches and provide a platform for further discussion of several interdependent principles relevant to the implementation of co-benefits strategies. These principles include providing incentives across multiple scales and time frames, promoting long-term integrated impact assessment, and fostering multidimensional communication networks.