Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

Does More Storage Give California More Water?

Increasing reservoir storage is commonly proposed to mitigate increasing water demand and provide drought reserves, especially in semiarid regions such as California. This paper examines the value of expanding surface reservoir capacity in California using hydroeconomic modeling for historical conditions, a future warm‐dry climate, and California's recently adopted policy to end groundwater overdraft. Results show expanding surface storage capacity rarely provides sizable economic value in most of California. On average, expanding facilities north of California's Delta provides some benefit in 92% of 82 years modeled under historical conditions and in 61% of years modeled in a warm‐dry climate. South of California's Delta, expanding storage capacity provides no benefits in 14% of years modeled under historical conditions and 99% of years modeled with a warm‐dry climate. Results vary across facilities between and within regions. The limited benefit of surface storage capacity expansion to statewide water supply should be considered in planning California's water infrastructure.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Groundwater Level Trends and Drivers in Two Northern New England Glacial Aquifers

We evaluated long‐term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well‐studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992‐2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979‐2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well‐month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month‐end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management1

Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x Abstract: This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.     

Clogging of an Effluent Dominated Semiarid River: A Conceptual Model of Stream‐Aquifer Interactions1

Abstract: Water managers in arid and semiarid regions increasingly view treated wastewater (effluent) as an important water resource. Artificial recharge basins allow effluent to seep into the ground relieving stressed aquifers, however these basins frequently clog due to physical, chemical, and biological processes. Likewise effluent is increasingly used to maintain perennial base flow for dry streambeds, however, little is known about the impact of effluent on streambed hydraulic conductivity and stream‐aquifer interactions. We address this issue by investigating: if a clogging layer forms, how the formation of a clogging layer alters stream‐aquifer connections, and what hydrologic factors control the formation and removal of clogging layers. We focused on the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona where effluent from the Nogales International Waste Water Treatment Plant sustains perennial flow. Monthly sampling, along a 30 km river reach, was done with two foci: physical streambed transformations and water source identification using chemical composition. Historical dataset were included to provide a larger context for the work. Results show that localized clogging occurs in the Upper Santa Cruz River. The clogging layers perch the stream and shallow streambed causing desaturation below the streambed. With these results, a conceptual model of clogging is established in the context of a semiarid hydrologic cycle: formation during the hot premonsoon months when flow is nearly constant and removal by large flood flows (>10 m³/s) during the monsoon season. However, if the intensity of flooding during the semiarid hydrologic cycle is lessened, the dependent riparian area can experience a die off. This conceptual model leads us to the conclusion that effluent dominated riparian systems are inherently unstable due to the clogging process. Further understanding of this process could lead to improved ecosystem restoration and management.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

Seasonal and Flood‐Induced Variations in Groundwater–Surface Water Exchange in a Northern Coldwater Fishery

Groundwater upwelling is important to coldwater fisheries survival. This study used stable isotopes to identify upwelling zones within a watershed, then combined isotope analyses with reach‐scale monitoring to measure surface water–groundwater exchange over time. Research focused on Amity Creek, Minnesota, a basin that exemplifies conditions limiting coldwater species survival along Lake Superior's North Shore where shallow bedrock limits groundwater capacity, lowering baseflows and increasing temperatures. Groundwater‐fed reaches were identified through synoptic isotope sampling, with results highlighting the importance of isolated shallow surficial aquifers (glacially derived sands and gravels) for providing cold baseflow waters. In an alluvial reach, monitoring well results show groundwater was stored in two reservoirs: one that reacts quickly to changes in stream levels, and one that remained isotopically isolated under most flow conditions, but which helps sustain summer baseflows for weeks to months. A 500‐year flood demonstrated the capacity of high‐flow events to alter surface water–groundwater connectivity. The previously isolated reservoir was exchanged or mixed during the flood pulse, while incision lowered the water table for years. The results here provide insight for streams that lack substantial groundwater inputs yet maintain coldwater species at risk in a warming climate and an approach for managers seeking to protect cold baseflow sources.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.     

Assessment of Groundwater Depletion and Implications for Management in the Denver Basin Aquifer System

The Denver Basin Aquifer System (DBAS) is a critical groundwater resource along the Colorado Front Range. Groundwater depletion has been documented over the past few decades due to the increased water use among users, presenting long‐term sustainability challenges. A spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis is used to estimate potentiometric surfaces and evaluate groundwater storage changes between 1990 and 2016 in each of the four DBAS aquifers. Several key depletion patterns and spatial water‐level changes emerge in this work. Hydraulic head changes are the largest in the west‐central side of the DBAS and have decreased in some areas by up to 180 m since 1990, while areas to the northwest show increases in hydraulic head by over 30.5 m. The Denver and Arapahoe aquifers show the largest groundwater storage losses, with the highest rates occurring in the 2000s. The results highlight uncertainty in the volumetric predictions under various storage coefficient calculations and emphasize the importance of representative aquifer characterization. The observed groundwater storage depletions are due to a combination of factors, which include population growth increasing the demand for water, variable precipitation, and drought influencing recharge, and increased groundwater pumping. The methods applied in this study are transferable to other groundwater systems and provide a framework that can help assess groundwater depletion and inform management decisions at other locations.     

Implications of Upstream Flow Availability for Watershed Surface Water Supply across the Conterminous United States

Although it is well established that the availability of upstream flow (AUF) affects downstream water supply, its significance has not been rigorously categorized and quantified at fine resolutions. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a nationwide inventory of AUF and local water resource, and assessing their roles in securing water supply across the 2,099 8‐digit hydrologic unit code watersheds in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We investigated the effects of river hydraulic connectivity, climate variability, and water withdrawal, and consumption on water availability and water stress (ratio of demand to supply) in the past three decades (i.e., 1981–2010). The results show that 12% of the CONUS land relied on AUF for adequate freshwater supply, while local water alone was sufficient to meet the demand in another 74% of the area. The remaining 14% highly stressed area was mostly found in headwater areas or watersheds that were isolated from other basins, where stress levels were more sensitive to climate variability. Although the constantly changing water demand was the primary cause of escalating/diminishing stress, AUF variation could be an important driver in the arid south and southwest. This research contributes to better understanding of the significance of upstream–downstream water nexus in regional water availability, and this becomes more crucial under a changing climate and with intensified human activities.     

Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City,China

Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

DROUGHT,TREE RINGS,AND RESERVOIR DESIGN1

Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration, severity, and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or stream‐flow. Under suitable conditions, and with proper analysis, tree rings obtained from long living, climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree‐ring “reconstructions” provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene, and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence, a brief review of the basic theory of tree‐ring reconstructions, and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree‐ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability.     

Federal Decentralization and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Reservoir Reallocation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Reservoir operations must respond to changing conditions, such as climate, water demand, regulations, and sedimentation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) can reallocate reservoir storage to respond to such changes. We assembled and analyzed a database of reservoir reallocations implemented and proposed by the Corps. While only a small portion of total reservoir storage nationwide has been reallocated, there are substantial differences in reallocation frequency and magnitude across the nation: some Corps Districts and Divisions use reallocation while others do not, relying more on discretion and small‐scale adaptation of operations. This difference illustrates how water resource agencies like the Corps decentralize management decisions to allow responding to disparate conditions. Decentralized decision‐making provides a responsive approach to water management, while centralized and hierarchical decision‐making is a slower, more deliberative approach. Decentralized decision‐making may lead to the accumulation of short‐term, local decisions over time to the point that the system is managed differently than anticipated. Reallocation, which is a form of planned adaptive management, can be accommodating of multiple competing demands and different stakeholders, yet expensive and less temporally responsive. The challenge for any large water resource management agency is to balance between local‐level, responsive discretion vs. centralized, planned decision‐making.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON URBAN WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHWES THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT1

ABSTRACT: Stresses on water resources in the Southwest take many forms and emanate from many different sources, among which are complex institutional arrangements, significant areal and temporal climatic variability, and high urban growth rates. Further challenges to managing supply and demand in this water‐scarce region are posed by environmental, social, and legal differences within and between the individual urban areas. Analysis of the sensitivity of the urban water sector in the Southwest to climatic variability requires careful consideration of these factors. Such analysis, in turn, provides an essential foundation for effective evaluation of the region's sensitivity to longer term climate change.