Using OpenMI and a Model MAP to Integrate WaterML2 and NetCDF Data Sources into Flood Modeling of Genoa,Italy

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as flash floods have caused considerable loss of life and damage to infrastructure over recent years. Flood events in the Mediterranean region between 1990 and 2006 caused over 4,500 fatalities and cost over €29 billion in damage, with Italy one of the worst affected countries. The Distributed Computing Infrastructure for Hydro‐Meteorology (DRIHM) project is a European initiative aiming at providing an open, fully integrated eScience environment for predicting, managing, and mitigating the risks related to such extreme weather phenomena. Incorporating both modeled and observational data sources, it enables seamless access to a set of computing resources with the objective of providing a collection of services for performing experiments with numerical models in meteorology, hydrology, and hydraulics. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how this flexible modeling architecture has been constructed using a set of standards including the NetCDF and WaterML2 file formats, in‐memory coupling with OpenMI, controlled vocabularies such as CF Standard Names, ISO19139 metadata, and a Model MAP (Metadata, Adaptors, Portability) gateway concept for preparing numerical models for standardized use. Hydraulic results, including the impact to buildings and hazards to people, are given for the use cases of the severe and fatal flash floods, which occurred in Genoa, Italy in November 2011 and October 2014.     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Transboundary River Floods and Institutional Capacity1

Abstract: While transboundary flood events have become more frequent on a global scale the past two decades, they appear to be overlooked in the international river basin (IRB) cooperation and management arena. The present study therefore combined geopolitical measures with biophysical and socioeconomic variables in an attempt to identify the IRBs with adequate institutional capacity for management of transboundary floods. It also classified basins that would possibly benefit from enlarging the institutional capacity related to transboundary floods. Of the 279 known IRBs, only 78 were represented by a transboundary rivers institution. A mere eight of the 153 identified institutions had transboundary flooding listed as an issue in their mandate. Overall, 43 basins, where transboundary floods were frequent during the period 1985‐2005, had no institutional capacity for IRBs. The average death and displacement tolls were found to be lower in the 37 basins with institutional capacity, even though these basins experienced twice as much transboundary floods with significant higher magnitudes than those in basins without institutional capacity. Overall, the results suggested that institutional capacity plays a role in the reduction of flood‐related casualties and affected individuals. River basins such as the Juba‐Shibeli, Han, Kura‐Araks, Ma, Maritsa, Po, Coco/Segovia, Grijalva, Artibonite, Changuinola, Coatan Achute, and Orinoco experienced more than one transboundary river flood, but have not yet set up any institutions for such events, or signed any appropriate treaties focused on floods. These basins were therefore recommended to consider focusing attention on this apparent lack of institutional capacity when it comes to managing transboundary flood events.     

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF FATALITIES AND INJURIES DUE TO FLOODS IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: This paper provides a framework for analyzing flood fatalities and injuries, and it describes the derivation of a generalized flood risk (i.e., flood consequences and their probabilities) function by introducing an integrated index (the number of residential buildings affected by a flood) that represents the major change in the power relation among the flood intensity, regional vulnerability, and resilience. Both the probabilities and the numbers of fatalities and injuries clearly increase significantly after the flood severity (in terms of the number of inundated buildings) passes a branch point. Below the branch point, it is still possible for fatalities and injuries to occur because of the variability in the data and the uncertainty in the predicted fatality values. The empirical models of fatalities and injuries due to floods in Japan suggested the usefulness in predicting fatalities and injuries and evaluating the efficacy of the warning or other emergency response measures.     

The AVI project: A bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy

The AVI project was commissioned by the Minister of Civil Protection to the National Group for Prevention of Hydrogeologic Hazards to complete an inventory of areas historically affected by landslides and floods in Italy. More than 300 people, divided into 15 research teams and two support groups, worked for one year on the project. Twenty-two journals were systematically searched for the period 1918–1990, 350,000 newspaper issues were screened, and 39,953 articles were collected. About 150 experts on mass movement and floods were interviewed and 1482 published and unpublished technical and scientific reports were reviewed. The results of the AVI project, in spite of the limitations, represent the most comprehensive archiving of mass movement and floods ever prepared in Italy. The type and quality of the information collected and the methodologies and techniques used to make the inventory are discussed. Possible applications and future developments are also presented.     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

SEDIMENT DISPERSION IN SALMON SPAWNING STREAMS: THE INFLUENCE OF FLOODS AND SALMON REDD CONSTRUCTION1

ABSTRACT: Magnetically tagged particles were used to investigate the effects of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and floods on the dispersion of coarse bed material in the Stuart‐Takla region, British Columbia, Canada. The dominant annual sediment transporting event in the channels is the snowmelt flood events, with lesser activity usually accomplished during summer floods. Annually in August, the channel bed material is reworked by the Early Stuart sockeye salmon spawning, as the fish excavate the streambed to deposit and bury their eggs. These nesting cavities are called redds. Results from 67 tracer recovery experiments over five years were highly variable, subject to the magnitude of floods and the returning population of salmon. Overall, the depositional pattern from nival flood events usually demonstrated a high degree of clast mobilization, long travel distances (up to 150 m), and mean depths of burial up to 18 cm. Summer flood events showed somewhat lower rates of mobilization, distances of travel, and depths of burial. Although the fish did not move the tracers very far, their effect on the bed was generally quite pervasive ‐ up to 100 percent of the clasts were mobilized, and the depth of burial was considerable (mean burial depths up to 14 cm). The amount of vertical mixing of sediment by salmon was often on the same order of magnitude as flood events. The significant vertical mixing of sediments by the fish has important implications for the mobility of sediment in the stream. Since any armoring layer formed during high flows throughout the year is subject to the bioturbation of salmon, this suggests that the transport threshold in the creeks remains relatively low. Salmon likely play an integral role in the sediment transport dynamics and annual sediment budget of the lower reaches of these creeks.     

Analysis of Damaging Hydrogeological Events: The Case of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

A period of bad weather conditions due to prolonged intense rainfall and strong winds can trigger landslides, floods, secondary floods (accumulation of rain on surfaces with low permeability), and sea storms, causing damage to humans and infrastructure. As a whole, these periods of bad weather and triggered phenomena can be defined as damaging hydrogeological events (DHEs). We define a methodological approach based on seven simple indexes to analyze such events. The indexes describe the return period (T) and trend of rainfall, the extent of hit areas, and the level of damages; they can be considered attributes of georeferenced features and analyzed with GIS techniques. We tested our method in an Italian region frequently hit by DHEs. In a period of 10 years, 747 damaging phenomena (landslides, 43%; floods, 38%) and 94 DHEs have been classified. The road network and housing areas are the most frequently damaged elements, threatened by all types of damaging phenomena. T classes are almost in accordance with the level of damage. These results can be used to outline warning levels for civil protection purposes, to forecast the areas most likely to be hit and the potential ensuing damage, to disseminate information concerning vulnerable areas, and to increase people’s awareness of risk.     

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment and Validation in the Framework of Municipal Planning in Portugal: The Case of Loures Municipality

The legislation that demands the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Portugal at the municipal level is the National Ecological Reserve (NER). A methodology for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility to be used in municipal planning is applied in Loures Municipality (169.3?km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal). A landslide inventory was made for the whole area interpreting orthophoto maps and aerial photographs and using standard geomorphologic techniques in field work. It consists of 686 polygons, each polygon representing a rotational, a deep translational or a shallow translational slide, and is integrated into a GIS database. Landslide susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Information Value Method) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. Three susceptibility models are elaborated independently according to the type of slide (rotational, deep translational, shallow translational). The landslide susceptibility maps are prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. The robustness and accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models are evaluated by prediction-rate curves, which are used for the quantitative interpretation of the landslide susceptibility maps. Unstable slopes that have to be included into the National Ecological Reserve are extracted from the three susceptibility maps following the general rules to draw the NER that state that the area to be included in the NER should guarantee the inclusion of at least 70?% of the landslides identified in the landslide inventory. The obtained results allow us to conclude that 70?% of the future landslides should occur in these areas, classified as most susceptible to landslides corresponding to 20.3?% of the total area of Municipality. Thus, the consideration of these 20.3?% as regards prevention and protection of landslide risk could potentially reduce damage resulting from 70?% of future landslides in the Loures Municipality.     

Comparing Landslide Maps: A Case Study in the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy

/ The preparation of landslide maps is an important step in any landslide hazard assessment. Landslides maps are prepared around the world, but little effort is made to assess their reliability, outline their main characteristics, and pinpoint their limitations. In order to redress this imbalance, the results of a long-term research project in the Upper Tiber River basin in central Italy are used to compare reconnaissance and detailed landslide inventory maps, statistical and geomorphologically based density maps, and landslide hazard maps obtained by multivariate statistical modeling. An attempt is made to discuss advantages and limitations of the available maps, outlining possible applications for decision-makers, land developers, and environmental and civil defence agencies. The Tiber experiment has confirmed that landslides can be cost-effectively mapped by interpreting aerial photographs coupled with field surveys and that errors and uncertainties associated with the inventory can be quantified. The experiment has shown that GIS makes it easy to prepare landslide density maps and facilitates the production of statistically based landslide hazard models. The former supply an overview of the distribution of landslides that is easily comprehended but do not provide insight on the causes of instability. The latter, giving insight into the causes of instability, are diagnostically powerful, but are difficult to prepare and exploit.     

Climate Change Impacts and Uncertainties on Spring Flooding of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River

The source of the Richelieu River is Lake Champlain, located between the states of New York, Vermont, and Québec. In 2011, the lake and the Richelieu River reached historical flood levels, raising questions about the influence of climate change on the watershed. The objectives of this work are to model the hydrology of the watershed, construct a reservoir model for the lake and to analyze flooding trends using climate simulations. The basin was modeled using the HSAMI lumped conceptual model from Hydro‐Québec with a semi‐distributed approach in order to estimate the inflows into Lake Champlain. The discharge at the Richelieu River was computed by using a mass balance equation between the inputs and outputs of Lake Champlain. Future trends were estimated over the 2041‐2070 and 2071‐2100 periods using a large number of outputs from general circulation models and regional climate models downscaled with constant scaling and daily translation methods. While there is a certain amount of uncertainty as to future trends, there is a decreasing tendency in the magnitude of the mean spring flood. A flood frequency analysis showed most climate projections indicate the severity of most extreme spring floods may be reduced over the two future periods although results are subject to a much larger uncertainty than for the mean spring flood. On the other hand, results indicate summer‐fall extreme events such as caused by hurricane Irene in August 2011 may become more frequent in the future.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

Application of Likelihood Ratio and Logistic Regression Models to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using GIS

For landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified a Bayesian probability model, a likelihood ratio and statistical model, and logistic regression to Janghung, Korea, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of IRS satellite imagery and field surveys; and a spatial database was constructed from topographic maps, soil type, forest cover, geology and land cover. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect, and curvature of topography, were calculated from the topographic database. Soil texture, material, drainage, and effective depth were extracted from the soil database, while forest type, diameter, and density were extracted from the forest database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite imagery using unsupervised classification. The likelihood ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid to determine each factors rating for landslide susceptibility mapping. Then the landslide susceptibility map was verified and compared with known landslide locations. The logistic regression model had higher prediction accuracy than the likelihood ratio model. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

Flash Flood Occurrences Since the 17th Century in Steep Drainage Basins in Southern Italy

The historical floods that have occurred since the seventeenth century were collected for a study area in southern Italy. Damages caused by floods, rainfall and the main anthropogenic modifications are discussed all together. The aim was to assess whether the frequency of floods is changing and, if so, whether these changes can be attributed to either rainfall and/or anthropogenic modifications. In 4?% of cases, mainly occurred in past centuries, floods damaged people. Hydraulic works, roads and private buildings were the more frequently damaged elements (25, 18 and 14?% of the cases, respectively). The annual variability of rainfall was discussed using an annual index. Short duration-high intensity rainfalls were characterized considering time series of annual maxima of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24?h and daily rainfall. The rainfall shows a decreasing trend, in terms of both the annual maximum of short duration and the annual amount. The population has been progressively increasing since the sixteenth century, except during the years following the catastrophic 1908 earthquake. The rate of population growth has been very high since the second half of the twentieth century; the urbanized areas greatly increased, especially following the second half of the twentieth century. At the same time, the trend of damaging floods has been increasing, especially since the seventies. The analysis indicates that, despite a rainfall trend favourable towards a reduction in flood occurrence, floods damage has not decreased. This seems to be mainly the effect of mismanagement of land use modifications.     

From Resistance to Resilience: Media Discourses on Urban Flood Governance in Mexico

This article examines the continuities and changes in newspaper coverage of urban flood governance in Tabasco, southeastern Mexico, where highly destructive floods have made flood risks a socially sensitive and politically contested public issue. The analysis draws upon post-Foucauldian critical discourse analysis, paying special attention to different actors’ discursive strategies to further their agendas amid the shifting forms of environmental governance. We argue that in recent years, discourses that promote integrated flood governance, based on cultural adaptation and social resilience instead of technological control, have become prominent in the media presentation of flood governance. These discourses endorse neoliberal views of flood governance as an issue of public–private co-governance and civil self-responsibility while being reluctant to consider flood risk from the perspective of the uneven distribution of vulnerabilities or as an issue of human rights.     

Historical and Geological Evidence for Seismic Origin of Newly Recognized Landslides in Southeastern Sicily, and Its Significance inTerms of Hazard

Old, large, and dormant landslides were unexpectedly found in southeastern Sicily, a territory of known seismicity but commonly considered as landslide-free or almost so. Purposely undertaken investigations revealed that: (1) these landslides are scarcely compatible with the local geoclimatic environment; (2) they usually show low-angle basal shear surfaces, despite the fact that the properties of the forming material are generally good; (3) they fulfill the known relationships between earthquake magnitude and epicenter–landslide distance; (4) sources coeval with high-energy historical earthquakes occurred in 1169, 1542 and 1693 testify to the occurrence of earthquake-triggered landsliding; and (5) documentary material (presented here for the first time) correlates with certainty a specific landslide to the 1693 earthquake. This geological and historical evidence, accompanied by the absence of contrasting elements, leads us to conclude that these landslides are earthquake-triggered. Because of their typological and geometrical characteristics, nearly all landslides can be reactivated, which has serious implications in terms of hazard, particularly with respect to lines of communication. Obviously, every action aimed at preventing or mitigating risks must start from the awareness of the causative processes, a condition substantially unsatisfied at the moment in SE Sicily. The paper concludes by emphasizing the opportunity not to trust excessively beliefs that, although shared, have never been really checked.     

Climate Change,Atmospheric Rivers,and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes1

Dettinger, Michael, 2011. Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):514‐523. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00546.x Abstract: Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.     

Land Management Versus Natural Factors in Land Instability: Some Examples in Northern Spain

The objective of this work is to test a hypothesis formulated on the basis of former results which considers that there might be a “global geomorphic change,” due to activities related to land management and not determined by climate change, which could be causing an acceleration of geomorphic processes. Possible relationships between some geomorphic processes related to land instability (landslides or sediment generation) and potential triggering factors are analyzed in study areas in northern Spain. The analysis is based on landslide inventories covering different periods, as well as the determination of sedimentation rates. Temporal landslide and sedimentation rate trends are compared with different indicators of human activities (land-use change, logging, forest fires) and with potential natural triggers (rainfall, seismicity). The possible influence of the road network in the distribution of landslides is also analyzed. Results obtained show that there is a general increase of both landslide and sedimentation rates with time that cannot be explained satisfactorily by observed rainfall trends and even less by seismicity. Land-use change appears to be by far the main factor leading to land instability, with some changes producing up to a 12-fold increase of landslide rate. A relationship between road network and the spatial distribution of landslides has also been observed. These results do confirm the existence of an acceleration of geomorphic processes in the region, and also suggest that climate-related factors play a limited role in the changes observed.     

Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.