北京城区长期避难场所空间布局研究

城市应急避难所是灾难或灾害发生后人员安置和救助的重要载体,其布局合理与否直接影响到它为市民提供避难服务的效果。以北京城区长期避难场所为研究对象,利用ArcGIS软件的空间分析模块,结合城区人口数据,以1 000 m和2 000 m为避难场所理论服务半径的分界点,筛选数据,计算得到相应避难场所的实际服务半径分别为2 000 m、3 000 m和5 000 m,绘制缓冲区,获得避难场所的实际服务区域;并与城区数据进行叠加,计算各区域避难场所的服务面积比、服务人口比、服务重叠率和避难人口配置缺口等指标;应用最小距离法计算城区各街道对避难场所的可达性。结果表明:北京城区长期避难场所空间布局不均衡,局部过于密集,服务重叠率严重;五环以内区域基本可满足居民的长期避难需求,但五环以外绝大部分区域为避难盲区;已建成避难场所仅能供城区16%的人口进行避难,人口配置缺口较大,总体上不能满足居民的避难需求。     

基于应急避难空间的矿山安全防护体系研究

提出以应急避难空间为基础的煤矿新型安全防护体系,通过在井下布置救生舱、避难所与矿井各系统结合形成救援网络,可在煤矿事故中为被困作业人员提供应急避难空间避难,降低煤矿事故死亡率。提出了救生舱、避难所在矿井中的基本布置原则,并以山西某煤矿为实例进行安全体系建设研究,指出避难室、救生舱在矿井实际条件中的设置原则和方法,以及新型安全防护体系的发展方向,为我国煤矿新型安全防护体系构建提出指导性依据。     

基于文献计量分析的应急避难所救援系统综述

为完善应急避难所救援功能,借助中国知网(CNKI)核心期刊库和Web版引文数据库(WOS),筛选出355篇中英文文章,展开文献计量、网络分析和主题分析。采用文献计量和可视化工具,梳理受欢迎的研究成果和具有影响力的研究人员,阐述目前已形成的4个研究集群,包括灾民避难需求、应急避难所选址、应急疏散行为和应急避难救援网络,并分析各研究主题之间的相互联系。从灾民需求、资源协调整合以及大数据和信息技术应用等方面,提出避难所救援系统研究未来发展方向。研究结果表明：1996—2021年,应急避难所救援系统的研究受到越来越多学者的关注,中文文献以应急避难所选址为主,而英文文献还关注到应急疏散行为;针对4个研究集群展开详细的主题分析,便于审查相关文献,有助于发现仍需关注的避难需求,加强资源利用,探索优化方法。     

汶川地震前成都市避难场所应急能力评估

为判断地震避难场所紧急避难能力是否满足居民灾后紧急避难阶段的需求,提出基于L-A模型的避难场所应急能力评估方法。该方法充分考虑紧急避难场所容纳能力、居民空间分布状况、紧急疏散路径因素,采用空间网络分析方法确定避难场所服务范围,将区域未能接纳人数及地震避难场所利用率作为避难场所评估分析的重要因素,并综合运用GIS技术实现评估分析的可视化。最后以成都市现有避难场所布局为例进行分析,结果表明:在震后紧急避难阶段成都中心城区有一定数量的人群未能安全避难且紧急避难场所资源分布不均衡。     

基于后悔值模型的化工园区应急避难场所选址分析

化工园区内危险源数量多,分布广,易发生火灾爆炸等突发性灾害事故,人员应急避难场所选址相对复杂。以后悔值理论为基础,结合效用函数,构建了后悔值模型对化工园区内避难场所选址问题进行研究。主要考虑了园区内各化工企业区域分布、事故影响范围、避难人数需求、事故发生概率等因素对避难所选址的影响,结合灾害时避难人数分布情况和从聚集点向避难所转移实际所需时间提出了等效时间的概念。最后将模型应用于小虎岛化工园区避难所的选址问题,并对模型中表征风险规避程度的参数θ和后悔遗憾程度的参数δ的敏感性进行了分析。     

身边的应急避难场所,你找到了吗

平静的生活总会遭遇意外,如台风、地震、战争……。这些最不想遇到的事如果遇到了,你可以就近躲藏到哪里去?楼宇、空地、广场还是医院?应急避难场所是指在城市中人口集聚地附近,以应对地震灾害为主,兼顾其他灾害事故,用于接纳受灾居民紧急疏散、临时或较长时间避难及生活,确保避难居民安全,避免灾后次生灾害危害.     

基于有界数据包络分析(DEA)模型的应急避难场所效率评价

应用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,针对应急避难场所规划建设和运营维护两种情况,分别建立以建设成本和运营成本为输入指标,以服务性、可达性、安全性为输出指标的效率评价指标体系,并选择有界DEA模型,分层次对应急避难场所的投入产出效率进行评价。实证案例表明,临时和中长期避难场所比短期避难场所更容易获得较高的DEA效率;位于区域内部、交通便利的应急避难场所DEA效率较高;提高应急避难场所的综合利用水平,更有利于提高其DEA效率。     

灾难降临,我们可以去哪儿?

<正>汶川、玉树抗震救灾的经验证明,紧急疏散和安置受灾民众已经成为政府应对突发灾害事件不容忽视的重要环节。灾难降临,如何为人们提供一个相对安全并且有保障的地点作为临时住所,保证基本的生活需求?本刊特邀国家地震局震灾应急救援司应急协调处侯建盛处长为您详细介绍应急避难场所的建设。     

基于混合决策的城市固定避难所选址优化

为了提高震后城市避难资源供需匹配效率，根据应急避难灾民的需求特征，分析了避难人员分层疏散和不同类型避难所规划布局，提出了基于模糊集理论、多属性妥协解决策(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, VIKOR)方法和双目标机会约束模型的混合决策方法。根据定性因素评价结果优化开放避难所的适宜性，并最小化避难所开放数量。通过加权ε-约束、中心极限定理和分段线性函数逼近得到近似单目标混合整数线性规划模型，借助实例验证模型的有效性。对比确定性和机会约束性模型得到的优化结果，为考虑避难所选址问题中的需求多样性和不确定性提供依据。结果表明，该方法不仅可以从多个决策者的专业知识中受益，还能更好地对冲震后需求的不确定性，确保在时间、空间有限的情况下，避难救援行动有序和高效开展。     

社区尺度的北京中心城区应急避难场所布局合理性研究

应急避难场所是应对城市突发公共事件的重要灾民安置设施,应急避难场所的布局合理性直接影响城市应急防灾能力与效果.基于社区尺度、入口供给、分段阈值,采用高斯两步移动搜寻法和反向高斯两步移动搜寻法,研究北京中心城区应急避难场所的可达性与拥挤度,并结合服务面积比、服务人口比、服务人口缺口等指标评价北京中心城区应急避难场所的布局合理性.结果表明,对避难场所可达性好的社区连片存在于首都功能核心区及其临近区域,呈蘑菇形分布,东城区全域可享受避难服务;对避难场所不具可达性的社区主要存在于中心城区边缘地带,但西城、海淀相邻地区也有部分社区对避难场所不具可达性.中心城区避难场所的拥挤度也存在较大差异,城区避难场所拥挤度均值为16.17,避难服务竞争激烈.总体上,北京中心城区的避难场所布局上仍然存在不均衡性,不能完全满足城区居民的避难需求.建议合理利用已有绿地、学校、广场等资源规划建设新的避难场所,或改扩建已有避难场所,以满足更多居民的避难需求.     

Explosion of ammonium nitrate solutions,two case studies

Two ammonium nitrate solution explosion accidents are analyzed in terms of the boiling point and solubility data. Both accidents occurred following a prolonged stoppage. In both cases a local increase in concentration and/or crystallization of ammonium nitrate has been suspected. In the first case this has been due to loss of temperature control with consequent evaporation under vacuum. In the second case crystal formation was attributed to cooling crystallization owing to poor insulation. Other conditions increasing the likelihood of the explosion were also satisfied. These include lack of flow, increase in temperature, and catalysis by both increased solution acidity and the presence of stainless steel corrosion products.     

大长径比油气管道空间爆炸事故分析——以中国石油新疆油田分公司"8·7"稠油热采井口爆炸事故为例

为分析大长径比管道内气体爆炸事故的原因,以新疆克拉玛依油田克浅10井区"8·7"23123井口爆炸事故为例,进行物理爆炸和化学爆炸的理论计算,并分析井口爆炸事故过程.物理爆炸计算与分析表明,爆炸可产生的压力为18.46 MPa,小于采油(气)井口装置105 MPa的爆破压力,因此,该爆炸不属于蒸汽过热引起的物理爆炸.化学爆炸计算表明,油管内发生化学爆炸产生的高温达到2 666.7 ℃,可以使钢材强度受到破坏;化学爆炸的爆轰压力为122.4 MPa,大于井口装置能承受的爆破压力,说明是化学爆炸产生的爆轰压力摧毁了井口装置.计算与分析的结果可以为防止类似事故的发生提供参考.     

Pedestrian crashes at priority-controlled junctions,roundabouts, and signalized junctions: The UK case study

Objectives: Over half of pedestrians killed and seriously injured in Great Britain in 2015 were involved in crashes at junctions. This study investigates the nature of these crashes.

Methods: A study was conducted into pedestrian casualty crashes at priority controlled junctions, roundabouts and signalised junctions in England between 2005 and 2015 using information from the UK STATS19 accident database, the UK National Travel Survey and the UK National Census. Consideration was given to coding frequencies of contributory factors, exposure (in terms of miles walked or driven) as well as age, gender and the resident deprivation index of the road users involved.

Results and Conclusions: In terms of indicative blame, the coding frequencies of subjectively determined pedestrian actions and behaviour factors which might have contributed to pedestrian casualty crashes were found to be between 1.6 and 2.8 times the frequencies of driver actions and behavioural factors. Substantial social gradients were found in pedestrian casualty rates per miles walked and in the driver involvement rates per mile driven with those from the most deprived quintile having higher rates. In addition, it was found that female pedestrians, aged 60 years and over, had higher pedestrian casualty rates, per billion miles walked, for all three junction types, when compared with males and females under the age of 60 years, apart from male pedestrians aged 16 years and younger at priority controlled junctions.     

A case study analysis to examine motorcycle crashes in Bogota,Colombia

IntroductionContributory factors to motorcycle crashes vary among populations depending on several aspects such as the users' profiles, the composition and density of traffic, and the infrastructure features. A better understanding of local motorcycle crashes can be reached in those places where a comprehensive analysis is performed. This paper presents the results obtained from a case study analysis of 400 police records of accidents involving motorcycles in Bogota.MethodTo achieve a deeper level of understanding of how these accidents occur, we propose a systemic approach that uses available crash data. The methodology is inspired by accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for analysis developed in France.ResultsWhen grouping cases we identified three categories: solo motorcycle accidents, motorcyclist and pedestrian accidents, and accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle. Within these categories we undertook in-depth analyses of 32 groups of accidents obtaining valuable information to better comprehend motorcyclists' road crashes in a local context. Recurrent contributory factors in the groups of accidents include: inexperienced motorcyclists, wide urban roads that incite speeding and risky overtaking maneuvers, flowing urban roads that encourage high speed and increased interaction between vehicles, and lack of infrastructure maintenance.Practical ApplicationsThe results obtained are a valuable asset to define measures that will be conveniently adapted to the group of accident on which we want to act. The methodology exposed in this paper is applicable to the study of road crashes that involve all types of actors, not only the motorcyclists, and in contexts different than those presented in Bogota.     

Off-site emergency scenario, a case study from a LPG Bottling Plant

After Bhopal disaster, emergency planning in an industrial area has become inevitable. The off-site emergency plan is an integral part of any major hazard control system. Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) leads to fatal consequences. This paper highlights some salient features of the emergency scenario, which ultimately leads to fireball with enormous pressure wave all around.     

A case study: An explosion in a milk spray dryer,CAPSA, NW Spain

European Standard EN 14491 (2006): “Dust explosion venting protective systems”, based on German Standard VDI 3673 (2002): “Pressure venting of dust explosions”, Verein Deustcher Ingenieure, specifies the basic design requirements for the selection of dust explosion venting protection systems.In this study an investigation into the efficiency of venting surfaces in accordance with Standard EN 14491 has been undertaken to check the validation of the same. Thus, the application of the standard to an actual case of an explosion in a milk spray dryer has been studied, taking into consideration the explosive characteristics of products treated in this type of installation and their venting requirements.The results obtained indicate that, in specific situations – such as the effects of turbulence, particularly in the cone, or dust layer self-ignition – the European Standard could underestimate the venting surface requirements needed to alleviate possible excess internal pressure in order to avoid injury or structural damage to spray dryers.     

Stressful work characteristics,health indicators and work behavior: the case of machine operators

This article shows the results of research on psychosocial risks for a group of machine and plant operators (n?=?1014) from the construction, chemical, energy, mining, metal and food industries in Poland. The Psychosocial Risk Scale designed in Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine (NIOM) by Moscicka-Teske and Potocka was used to indicate the occurrence of general and specific occupational stressors and the level of their stressfulness. The results revealed that the studied machine and plant operators experience job context stress – related to working environment features concerning work organization – more frequently than job content stressors – related to the type of tasks they perform. Moreover, a correlation analysis between work features and the health and occupational functioning of the respondents revealed significant but weak relationships between the variables (from ?0.08 to ?0.23). Comparative analysis revealed the differences between the studied sectors. Such a comparison makes it possible to set goals for each sector and to attempt to improve the distinctive areas.     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式，选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标，以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标，综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地，利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正，采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取，构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2，占新区土地总面积的313%，主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域；新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎，大部分区域阻力值较低，间或分布高阻力值；新区生态廊道总长度18586 km，呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布，所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

Self-ignition in stone wool insulation contaminated with fatty acid (fundamentals,case study,analysis methodology)

A combination of a residual film of flammable organic substance, air and porous structures like insulation material (e.g. stone wool) may result in a fire. The initiating self-heating process depends on the substance (reactivity, volatility), amount of accumulated liquid, volume and temperature. Specific information is given for application and extension of the Thomas criterion with a 2nd order reaction. The experimental part includes new experimental techniques to determine heat transfer and formal reaction kinetic data. The applied self-ignition temperature (SIT) simulation model relies on liquid film volume and not on liquid film surface reaction. As a further result of the studies detailed working procedure of three simplified methodologies for estimation of SITs in technical scale are presented. New techniques to determine parameters necessary for SIT prediction, especially in combination with Methodology III, have the power to reduce the costs for estimating the SIT up to 80%.     

云南个旧多金属矿区农田土壤-作物系统重金属污染现状——以乍甸镇为例

对云南个旧市乍甸镇农田土壤和农作物重金属污染现状进行了野外调查及评价。结果表明:农田土壤Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd、As质量比均超出GB 15618—1995《土壤环境质量标准》二级标准,Hg未检出,该地区农田呈现以As、Cd为主多种重金属复合污染。Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd、As土壤有效态质量比与土壤全量呈极显著正相关(p<0.01)。农作物中Cu、As质量比与土壤有效态Cu、As质量比无显著相关,Zn质量比与土壤有效态Zn呈极显著负相关(p<0.01),Cd、Pb质量比与土壤有效态Cd、Pb呈显著正相关(p<0.05)。89%的农作物As超标,油菜籽(Brassica napusL.)As质量比最高,均值达(23.04±14.33)mg/kg(鲜重,下同)。Pb超标率达72%,油菜籽Pb质量比最高,平均为(5.55±2.53)mg/kg。Zn、Cd超标率均为11.11%,超标最严重的油菜籽Zn质量比为(46.65±13.61)mg/kg,Cd质量比为(0.24±0.10)mg/kg。Cu超标率为5.55%,油菜籽Cu质量比最高,达(16.02±2.75)mg/kg。油菜籽对As、Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd的转移系数(农作物可食部分重金属质量比(鲜重)与土壤重金属质量比的比值)远高于其他作物。农作物对Pb、Zn、Cd、As的转移顺序依次为果实类、叶菜类、根茎类,对Cu的转移顺序为果实类、根茎类、叶菜类。农作物以As、Pb污染为主,总体属重度污染。聚类分析得出:油菜籽、青蒜(Allium ampeloprasumL.)和生菜(Lactuca sativaL.var.ramosaHort.)重金属污染严重,不适合在该地区继续种植和食用。