农民工创业意愿影响因素的实证研究

在多数农民工流入城市的同时,也有一部分农民工选择返乡。回流农民工创业对增收减贫及农村经济发展具有深远意义。本文通过对四川省的调研研究了农民工创业意愿的影响因素。实证结果表明,家庭打工人口数越少、务农时间越短的农民工创业意愿越高。同时,结果也发现户耕地面积越小的农民工创业意愿较高。受教育程度对农民工创业意愿也具显著影响,研究表明,受教育程度较高的农民工创业意愿较强。此外,男性相比女性更具创业意愿,但该变量统计上不显著。     

少数民族聚集区乡村空间重构的影响机理——以新疆和田地区为例

乡村空间重构不仅是农村现代化的必由之路,还是实现土地集约利用的重要途径。和田地区,经济发展缓慢,其村庄基础设施差,而且由于人口迅速发展,其人地矛盾突出,因此对和田地区进行乡村空间重构势在必行。基于此,本文依据2015年对和田地区入户调查的1 162份问卷,选取了农户的个体特征、家庭特征、职业特征和居住环境特征四个方面的19个影响因素作为自变量,选取农户是否愿意整治作为因变量,运用二元Logistic模型对农户迁居至中心村的影响因素和迁居意愿进行了回归分析。对问卷的统计可知,有64%的被调查者表示接受整治。通过与其他区域的调查对比可知,经济越是发达的地区,其中心村整治的进展越快,农民接受整治的意愿也越强烈。相反,经济越不发达的地区,其中心村整治的进展越缓慢,农民接受搬迁的意愿越低。农户是否愿意接受乡村重构,是农户家庭特征、居民点的基础设施和农户的职业特征共同作用的结果。就农户的家庭特征来看,家庭劳动力数量偏少、家庭年收入越高、耕地面积适中的农户,其搬迁意愿是最强烈的。在农户的职业特征中,愿意参与土地流转、有外出务工经验的农户,其搬迁意愿是最强烈的。在环境特征中,若农户对居住环境和现居住村的建设越不满意、居住环境中需要改善的项目越多,农户的搬迁意愿越强烈。因此,对于和田地区来说,在引导居民集中居住的同时,要引导农户流转土地,促进更多人就业,积极推动特色农业的发展,走农业现代化的道路,以促进农民收入的持续增长。此外,农户对于整治的一个很重要的期望就是改善居住环境,因此在未来的村庄总体建设和规划中,应积极改善村庄内基础设施,并与居住建设同步进行。一直以来,对少数民族聚集区的乡村空间重构的研究比较少。本文对和田地区中心村的研究,是对少数民族地区乡村空间重构研究的重要补充。     

农户分化、土地退出意愿与农民的选择偏好

近年来,工业化城镇化的提速发展加快了我国农户的分化。分化产生的异质性农户对土地有不同的依赖程度、价值认知和产权偏好,也就必然具有不同的土地退出意愿。本文立足于农户人口分化、职业分化和经济分化的现实背景,运用全国23个省(市、区)647户农户的调查数据,把农户退出农村土地的方式分为长期出租、政府征用、宅基地换城镇房和承包地换养老保险等四种,在多重共线性和模型适当性检验的基础上,通过构建二元Logistic回归模型,计量分析人口、职业和经济因素对农户土地退出意愿及方式选择偏好的影响。研究发现:除年龄、性别、受教育程度和耕地亩均收入外,劳动供养率、脱离农业的程度、成员在城镇定居、参与土地流转等因素,都会显著影响农户的土地退出意愿,而且不同类型农户有不同的土地退出方式偏好。具体来看,年龄越大的受访者,越愿意以承包地换养老保险;受教育程度和兼业化程度较高的受访者,更愿意以宅基地换城镇房;有成员在城镇定居的农户,对除政府征用之外的其他三种退出方式都比较支持;与流出土地的农户相比,没有参与土地流转和流入土地的农户,对任何方式的土地退出都更为排斥。结论表明,为了加快推进新型城镇化、提高土地资源的利用效率,政府要根据异质性农户的不同需求,为农户有偿退出农村宅基地和承包地提供差异化的制度安排。     

推拉理论视角下的农村宅基地退出机制研究——基于南京市栖霞区农户意愿调查

以推拉理论为视角,分别从农村宅基地作为资源和资产属性以及拥有农村宅基地使用权的农民迁移到城市这两个角度,重新梳理影响农户宅基地退出意愿的因素,建立了农村宅基地退出影响因素的推拉分析框架。在理论分析的基础上,利用在南京市栖霞区农村实地调查得到的数据,建立二元Logistic模型归纳主要影响农户退出意愿的推力和拉力因素。研究发现,受教育水平、农户年总收入、家庭居住人口数和农户是否参加农村养老保险是宅基地退出的主要推动因素;而非农业收入占比、外出务工人口数、是否参加城镇养老保险、是否拥有城镇住所、是否有宅基地产权证书以及宅基地抵押权认知情况是影响宅基地退出的主要拉力因素。基于以上的影响因素分析,提出完善农村宅基地退出机制的政策建议。     

基于农户调查的农村居民点整理意愿及影响因素分析

农村居民点整理是促进节约集约用地的重要举措。以抽样调查获取的424份调查问卷为基础,构建了包括农户个人特征、家庭经济状况、家庭住房状况、其它因素在内的Logistic模型,分析了农户居民点整理意愿及影响因素。研究显示:(1)研究区域农村居民点整理意愿不强烈,仅41.5%的农户愿意居民点整理,其主要原因是担心生活成本增加、失去生活保障以及恋土情结等;(2)农户住房套数、与邻居血缘关系、家庭承包经营耕地面积、家庭收入、农户职业类型等都是影响农村居民点整理意愿的主要因素,其中家庭住房套数越多、收入越高、与邻居血缘关系越远的农户整理意愿越强烈,而年龄越大、家庭人口越多、以农业为主的农户则越不愿意整理搬迁;(3)为有效推进居民点整理工作,应切实从农民利益角度出发,努力提高拆迁补偿标准,建立健全社会保障机制,同时加大农村土地制度改革探索。     

非市场价值认知、社会资本对农户耕地保护合作意愿的影响

全面改善耕地质量,充分释放耕地社会生态效益是落实乡村振兴战略"生态宜居"的内在要求。小农经营下,农户耕地保护合作是实现耕地质量全面改善的可行路径,但往往因缺乏动力和"搭便车"行为而陷入集体行动困境。本文从集体行动视角出发,结合嵌入性社会结构理论,分别以非市场价值认知和社会资本表征自主因素和嵌入因素,理论上分析了两类因素对农户耕地保护合作意愿的影响;进一步,运用张掖市718户农户微观数据进行了实证检验。结果显示:①耕地非市场价值认知是影响农户耕地保护合作意愿的自主因素,对农户耕地保护合作意愿具有正向影响;农户的耕地生态服务价值认知、耕地对当代人的社会保障价值认知和对后代人的社会保障价值认知水平越高,其耕地保护合作意愿越强。②社会资本是影响农户耕地保护合作意愿的嵌入因素,通过信息传递、信任机制和规范约束等改变农户选择决策环境中的不确定性,影响农户参与耕地保护合作意愿;人际信任有利于提高农户耕地保护合作意愿,但制度信任对农户耕地保护合作意愿影响不显著;社会规范和社会网络均有利于提高农户耕地保护合作意愿,且强连接网络的边际效用大于弱连接网络。③性别和受教育水平也会显著影响农户参与耕地保护合作意愿,相对于女性和受教育程度低的农民而言,男性、受教育程度高的农民更愿意参与耕地保护合作。最后,针对研究结论提出了开展社会化的耕地非市场价值教育以提高农民耕地非市场价值认知,培育农村社会资本以营造良好的集体行动环境,通过农村基层组织分批有序引导农户参与耕地保护合作等政策建议。     

基于农户调查的农村居民点整理意愿及影响因素分析

农村居民点整理是促进节约集约用地的重要举措。以抽样调查获取的424份调查问卷为基础,构建了包括农户个人特征、家庭经济状况、家庭住房状况、其它因素在内的Logistic模型,分析了农户居民点整理意愿及影响因素。研究显示：(1)研究区域农村居民点整理意愿不强烈,仅41.5%的农户愿意居民点整理,其主要原因是担心生活成本增加、失去生活保障以及恋土情结等;(2)农户住房套数、与邻居血缘关系、家庭承包经营耕地面积、家庭收入、农户职业类型等都是影响农村居民点整理意愿的主要因素,其中家庭住房套数越多、收入越高、与邻居血缘关系越远的农户整理意愿越强烈,而年龄越大、家庭人口越多、以农业为主的农户则越不愿意整理搬迁;(3)为有效推进居民点整理工作,应切实从农民利益角度出发,努力提高拆迁补偿标准,建立健全社会保障机制,同时加大农村土地制度改革探索     

农户分化、城镇住房对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响

通过对武汉城市圈9市10个乡镇16个行政村483名农户的调查,运用描述性统计分析方法和Logistic模型分析法,深入分析农户分化、城镇住房对宅基地有偿退出意愿的影响规律.研究结果表明:(1)农户分化对宅基地退出意愿具有促进作用,且随着农户分化程度深化,其影响效果逐步加强;(2)城镇住房居住效应对农户宅基地退出意愿具有正向影响,财富效应表现为负向影响,总效应为正向促进作用;(3)城镇住房对不同分化程度农户宅基地退出意愿的影响存在显著差异,由纯农型农户向非农型农户转型过程中,城镇住房促进作用逐步加强,但在部分特征样本群中其影响效果存在"瓶颈期".鉴于此,为促进农户参与宅基地有偿退出,应继续推进农村非农经济发展,提升农户非农就业水平,同时将住房保障政策与宅基地退出制度安排长期有效匹配,在通过社会整体制度安排为农户家庭提供非农经济基础与社会保障条件的基础上,有序开展和推进宅基地退出工作.     

区域分异视角下进城居民再迁意愿分析

本文利用浙江、河南、四川三省960份已从农村迁移到城镇的居民的入户调查数据,建立二元Logistic回归模型进行验证,分析居民再迁移倾向。研究结果表明:(1)从描述性统计看,69.69%已进城居民不愿再迁,主要是生活原因,而30.31%的居民愿意再迁,主要是经济原因。(2)从三省总样本上看,一是女性较男性有更强的迁移意愿。二是年龄对再次迁移意愿有负向显著影响,年龄越大的进城居民更倾向"安土重迁"。三是家庭类型中三代同堂较单身家庭有更强的迁移意愿,因为养老难、子女教育难。四是手工业工人较村组干部更不愿意迁移,技能优势使其在城里更有保障。五是家庭年总收入对再迁意愿有正向显著影响。六是浙江、四川与河南三地的差异显著,因为三地分属于我国东中西部,社会经济、居民收入和文化观念存在显著差异。(3)从分省比较上看,一是性别、打工年限、家庭类型在浙江省和四川省模型中均有显著影响,但方向相反。二是工作类型在三省都有一定的影响,但存在差异。三是家庭年总收入在河南省不显著,而在四川省和浙江省均是正向显著。四是搬迁到城镇的年数在河南省是正向显著,而在浙江省和四川省是负向显著。五是浙江省和四川省模型都说明对政府越满意,居民越不愿意迁移。基于以上研究结论,本文认为在推进以人为核心的新型城镇化进程中,政府应发挥重要的引导作用,关注已进城居民对经济、生活、教育、社会保障等方面的合理需求,重视不同区域社会经济和文化观念的差异性,健全人口迁移的相关体制,落实各项相关保障政策。     

农户宅基地流转意愿的影响因素分析——基于湖北二县市的农户调查研究

通过对湖北省二县市农户宅基地流转意愿的抽样调查,采用Logistic回归模型,分析农户宅基地流转意愿与区位条件、农户家庭属性特征及经济发展水平等的关系,找出影响农户宅基地流转意愿的主要因素。研究结果表明：目前愿意将自家宅基地进行流转的农户所占比例略高于50%。按作用程度排序,影响农户宅基地流转意愿的因素依次为非农收入占总收入的比重、距县城距离、对政策了解程度、户主年龄、户主学龄;其中,距县城距离和户主年龄的影响方向为负,其它因素的作用方向为正。从区域角度来看,经济较发达地区农户非农收入已占据主导地位,农户的流动性较强,愿意流转的农户所占比例高于社会经济欠发达地区的比例;影响农户宅基地流转意愿的因素及其作用程度也存在一定的区域差异。     

Population,development,and environment in India

High population growth and continued economic development have caused serious environmental damage in the Asia Pacific region.However,the recent experience is that the pace of environmental degradation is faster in developing countries than in developed countries.To this end,the study seeks to assess the impact of population pressure on India’s environment,with particular reference to the degradation of natural endowments like land and water resources and the resultant environmental pollution in the six regions of India.The rapid economic growth and expansion of infrastructure development in recent decades have not come without serious environmental consequences particularly in the southern,northern,and western regions.But in the eastern,north-eastern,and central regions of the country,environmental damage has been mainly due to rapid population growth.     

Radioactivity in fungi in Slovenia,Yugoslavia, following the Chernobyl accident

Caesium (¹³⁷Cs and ¹³⁴Cs) concentrations in higher fungi (Basidiomycetes) from Slovenia, north-west Yugoslavia, are reported following the Chernobyl accident. Special attention was paid to the Cortinariaceae, already known as Cs accumulators. The highest levels were found in Cortinarius armillatus, C. traganus (both inedible species) and Rozites caperata. The median concentration of ^137,134Cs in R. caperata from over 40 sampling sites was about 22 kBq/kg dry weight. High levels were also found in Xerocomus badius and Laccaria amethystina.From the ¹³⁷Cs/¹³⁴Cs ratios, which reflect the depth of the mycelium and the excess ¹³⁷Cs from historic pre-Chernobyl fallout, it may be surmised that radiocaesium levels in certain species will probably increase further next year and subsequently as Cs migrates down the soil profile.In addition, ^110mAg was found at concentrations up to 500 Bq/kg dry weight in certain species known to be Ag accumulators, particularly Agaricaceae and Lycoperdaceae.     

Wildfire,climate, and perceptions in Northeast Oregon

Regional Environmental Change - Wildfire poses a rising threat in the western USA, fueled by synergies between historical fire suppression, changing land use, insects and disease, and shifts toward...     

Blood cadmium,mercury, and lead in children: An international comparison of cities in six European countries,and China,Ecuador, and Morocco

Children's blood-lead concentration (B-Pb) is well studied, but little is known about cadmium (B-Cd) and mercury (B-Hg), in particular for central Europe. Such information is necessary for risk assessment and management. Therefore, we here describe and compare B-Pb, B-Cd and B-Hg in children in six European, and three non-European cities, and identify determinants of these exposures. About 50 school children (7–14 years) from each city were recruited (totally 433) in 2007–2008. Interview and questionnaire data were obtained. A blood sample was analyzed: only two laboratories with strict quality control were used. The European cities showed only minor differences for B-Cd (geometric means 0.11–0.17 μg/L) and B-Pb (14–20 μg/L), but larger for B-Hg (0.12–0.94 μg/L). Corresponding means for the non-European countries were 0.21–0.26, 32–71, and 0.3–3.2 μg/L, respectively. For B-Cd in European samples, traffic intensity close to home was a statistically significant determinant, for B-Hg fish consumption and amalgam fillings, and for B-Pb sex (boys higher). This study shows that European city children's B-Cd and B-Pb vary only little between countries; B-Hg differs considerably, due to varying tooth restoration practices and fish intake. Traffic intensity seemed to be a determinant for B-Cd. The metal concentrations were low from a risk perspective but the chosen non-European cities showed higher concentrations than the cities in Europe.     

Formaldehyde in China: Production, consumption, exposure levels, and health effects

Formaldehyde, an economically important chemical, is classified as a human carcinogen that causes nasopharyngeal cancer and probably leukemia. As China is the largest producer and consumer of formaldehyde in the world, the Chinese population is potentially at increased risk for cancer and other associated health effects. In this paper we review formaldehyde production, consumption, exposure, and health effects in China. We collected and analyzed over 200 Chinese and English documents from scientific journals, selected newspapers, government publications, and websites pertaining to formaldehyde and its subsequent health effects.Over the last 20 years, China's formaldehyde industry has experienced unprecedented growth, and now produces and consumes one-third of the world's formaldehyde. More than 65% of the Chinese formaldehyde output is used to produce resins mainly found in wood products — the major source of indoor pollution in China. Although the Chinese government has issued a series of standards to regulate formaldehyde exposure, concentrations in homes, office buildings, workshops, public places, and food often exceed the national standards. In addition, there have been numerous reports of formaldehyde-induced health problems, including poisoning and cancer. The lack of quality epidemiological studies and basic data on exposed populations emphasizes the need for more extensive studies on formaldehyde and its related health effects in China.     

Occurrence of 222Rn, 226Ra, 228Ra and U in groundwater in Fujian Province, China

222Rn, 226Ra, 228Ra and U were determined in a total of 552 groundwater samples collected throughout Fujian Province of China. The geometric mean concentrations of 222Rn, 226Ra, 228Ra and total U in the groundwater were 147.8 kBq m-3, 12.7 Bq m-3, 30.2 Bq m-3 and 0.54 microgram kg-1, respectively. High groundwater 222Rn was explained by the predominantly granitic rock aquifers in Fujian. A lifetime risk of 1.7 x 10(-3) was estimated for the ingestion of groundwater 222Rn. High ratios of 228Ra to 226Ra contents (geometric mean of 2.4) and their disproportion suggest that 228Ra should also be measured in the assessment of population doses from drinking water in the regions of high rock or soil 232Th. No significant correlation between the 222Rn concentrations in groundwater and air was found.     

Climate change,food stress,and security in Russia

Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.”     

A study of radium bioaccumulation in freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, in the Magela Creek catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

Freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, along Magela Creek in Australia’s Northern Territory were examined to study radionuclide activities in mussel flesh and to investigate whether the Ranger Uranium mine is contributing to the radium loads in mussels downstream of the mine. Radium loads in mussels of the same age were highest in Bowerbird Billabong, located 20 km upstream of the mine site. Variations in the ratio of [Ra]:[Ca] in filtered water at the sampling sites accounted for the variations found in mussel radium loads with natural increases in calcium (Ca) in surface waters in a downstream gradient along the Magela Creek catchment gradually reducing radium uptake in mussels. At Mudginberri Billabong, 12 km downstream of the mine, concentration factors for radium have not significantly changed over the past 25 years since the mine commenced operations and this, coupled with a gradual decrease of the ²²⁸Ra/²²⁶Ra activity ratios observed along the catchment, indicates that the ²²⁶Ra accumulated in mussels is of natural rather than mine origin. The ²²⁸Th/²²⁸Ra ratio has been used to model radium uptake and a radium biological half-life in mussels of approximately 13 years has been determined. The long biological half-life and the low Ca concentrations in the water account for the high radium concentration factor of 30,000-60,000 measured in mussels from the Magela Creek catchment.     

Arsenic exposure,hyperuricemia, and gout in US adults

BackgroundThere is very limited information on the association between arsenic and serum uric acid levels or gout. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of arsenic with hyperuricemia and gout in US adults.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted in 5632 adults aged 20 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2010 with determinations of serum uric acid and urine total arsenic and dimethylarsinate (DMA). Hyperuricemia was defined as serum uric acid higher than 7.0 mg/dL for men and 6.0 mg/dL for women. Gout was defined based on self-reported physician diagnosis and medication use.ResultsAfter adjustment for sociodemographic factors, comorbidities and arsenobetaine levels, the increase in the geometric means of serum uric acid associated with one interquartile range increase in total arsenic and DMA levels was 3% (95% CI 2–5) and 3% (2–5), respectively, in men and 1% (0–3) and 2% (0–4), respectively, in women. In men, the adjusted odds ratio for hyperuricemia comparing the highest to lowest quartiles of total arsenic was 1.84 (95% CI, 1.26–2.68) and for DMA it was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.01–1.96). The corresponding odds ratios in women were 1.26 (0.77, 2.07) and 1.49 (0.96, 2.31), respectively. The odds ratio for gout comparing the highest to lowest tertiles was 5.46 (95% CI, 1.70–17.6) for total arsenic and 1.98 (0.64–6.15) for DMA among women older than 40 years old. Urine arsenic was not associated with gout in men.ConclusionLow level arsenic exposures may be associated with the risk of hyperuricemia in men and with the prevalence of gout in women. Prospective research focusing on establishing the direction of the relationship among arsenic, hyperuricemia, and gout is needed.