Benefit–Cost Analysis of StormwaterQuality Improvements

The major purpose of this paper is to explore the potential value of benefit–cost evaluation for stormwater quality management decisions at a local level. A preliminary benefit–cost analysis (BCA) screening method is used for maximum extent practicable (MEP) analysis, identifying promising management practices, and identifying societal and economic tradeoffs for local stormwater problems. Ballona Creek, a major urban storm drain in Los Angeles, California, USA, is used to illustrate the practicality of the benefit–cost evaluation. The Ballona Creek example demonstrates the economic limits of stormwater management in an urban region and attests to the value of coordinated basinwide management compared to uncoordinated management by individual landowners. Evaluation results suggest that in urban areas, the benefit of stormwater quality improvements might be far greater if accompanied by comprehensive redesign of drainage networks and neighboring land uses. In this case, benefit–cost analysis is found to be useful for evaluating and understanding stormwater management alternatives despite the uncertainties in characterizing stormwater quality and the effects of stormwater management on improving receiving water quality.     

DRY AND WET WEATHER FLOW NUTRIENT LOADS FROM A LOS ANGELES WATERSHED1

Effective watershed management requires an accurate assessment of the pollutant loads from the associated point and nonpoint sources. The importance of wet weather flow (WWF) pollutant loads is well known, but in semi‐arid regions where urbanization is significant the pollutant load in dry weather flow (DWF) may also be important. This research compares the relative contributions of potential contaminants discharged in DWF and WWF from the Ballona Creek Watershed in Los Angeles, California. Models to predict DWF and WWF loads of total suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate‐nitrogen, nitrite‐nitrogen, ammonia‐nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the Ballona Creek Watershed for six water years dating from 1991 to 1996 were developed. The contaminants studied were selected based on data availability and their potential importance in the degradation of Ballona Creek and Santa Monica Bay beneficial uses. Wet weather flow was found to contribute approximately 75 percent to 90 percent of the total annual flow volume discharged by the Ballona Creek Watershed. Pollutant loads are also predominantly due to WWF, but during the dry season, DWF is a more significant contributor. Wet weather flow accounts for 67 to 98 percent of the annual load of the constituents studied. During the dry season, however, the portion attributable to DWF increases to greater than 40 percent for all constituents except biochemical oxygen demand and total suspended solids. When individual catchments within the watershed are considered, the DWF pollutant load from the largest catchment is similar to the WWF pollutant load in two other major catchments. This research indicates WWF is the most significant source of nonpoint source pollution load on an annual basis, but management of the effects of the nonpoint source pollutant load should consider the seasonal importance of DWF.     

CHANGING WATER BALANCE OVER TIME IN RUSH CREEK,EASTERN CALIFORNIA, 1860–19921

ABSTRACT: Rush Creek, the principal tributary to Mono Lake, has undergone profound hydrologic modifications as a result of flow regulation for hydroelectric generation and irrigation, diversions for irrigated agriculture, and diversions for water export to the City of Los Angeles. Lower Rush Creek (the lowermost 13 km downstream of Grant Lake Reservoir) was dry by 1970, but now receives flow as a result of court-ordered efforts to restore former ecological conditions. Using available historic data and recent field measurements, we constructed the water balance for Lower Rush Creek, identifying six distinct historical periods characterized by very different patterns of gain and loss. The hydrologic patterns must be understood as a basis for modeling ecosystem response to stream-flow alteration. A gradually gaining stream under natural conditions, the advent of irrigation diversions caused the middle reaches of Lower Rush Creek to be often completely dry, while irrigation-recharged springs still maintained a baseflow in the downstream “Meadows” ranch. Increased water exports from the basin subsequently reduced irrigation and dried up the springs.     

Policy Frameworks Influencing Outdoor Water‐use Restrictions

Water‐use efficiency in the United States (U.S.) has improved in recent years. Yet continued population growth coupled with increasingly conservation‐oriented regulatory frameworks suggest that residential water suppliers will have to realize additional efficiency gains in coming decades. Outdoor water‐use restrictions (OWRs) appear to be an increasingly prevalent demand‐side management policy tool. To date little research has investigated the policy mechanisms that govern OWR adoption and influence the prevalence of OWRs. This article fills this gap with an assessment of state‐level policies influencing local‐level restrictions on residential outdoor water use in each of the 48 contiguous U.S. states, and with a detailed illustration of the cross‐scalar dynamic of one state's policy framework in practice. An examination of the implementation of OWRs in 24 neighboring towns in Massachusetts across the 2003‐2012 period indicates the interplay between state‐level and local‐level policies leads to OWRs implementation over extended time‐periods, even when drought conditions are not present. This finding suggests OWRs are being used as a tool for general‐purpose water conservation rather than as a stopgap measure justified by temporary water shortage conditions. Future research should investigate how local‐level water savings vary with differing state‐level approaches.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.     

Residents’ Assessment of an Urban Outdoor Water Conservation Program in Guelph,Ontario1

Abstract: Many municipalities have implemented demand management of outdoor water use. Measures such as restrictions on lawn watering and promotion of xeriscaping are effective in reducing water demand during summer months, especially during dry spells. However, little research examines a key factor shaping the success of these programs: residents’ perceptions of and satisfaction with such conservation measures. This article describes an urban outdoor water conservation program in Guelph, Ontario, assesses that program from the perspective of residents, and explores socio‐economic, attitudinal and other factors associated with residents’ assessment of the program. A survey of Guelph residents revealed broad support for the program, which includes restrictions on various outdoor water uses and, under certain circumstances, a ban on lawn watering. However, there was much uncertainty among residents about the effectiveness of the program in reducing water use and the effectiveness of program enforcement. Key factors influencing residents’ assessment of the program were neighborhood, gender and environmental attitude. Implications for the design and implementation of outdoor water conservation programs are discussed, including the importance of better communication of information on program effectiveness and enforcement.     

Water Balances of Two Piedmont Headwater Catchments: Implications for Regional Hydrologic Landscape Classification

In the Piedmont of North Carolina, a traditionally water‐rich region, reservoirs that serve over 1 million people are under increasing pressure due to naturally occurring droughts and increasing land development. Innovative development approaches aim to maintain hydrologic conditions of the undisturbed landscape, but are based on insufficient target information. This study uses the hydrologic landscape concept to evaluate reference hydrology in small headwater catchments surrounding Falls Lake, a reservoir serving Raleigh and the greater Triangle area. Researchers collected one year of detailed data on water balance components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and shallow subsurface storage from two headwater catchments representative of two hydrologic landscapes defined by differences in soils and topographic characteristics. The two catchments are similar in size and lie within the same physiographic region, and during the study period they showed similar water balances of 26‐30% Q, ?4 to 5% ΔS, 59‐65% evapotranspiration, and 9‐10% G. However, the steeper, more elevated catchment exhibited perennial streamflow and nongrowing season runoff ratios (Q/P) of 33%, whereas the flat, low‐lying stream was drier during the growing season and exhibited Q/P ratios of 52% during the nongrowing season. A hydrologic landscape defined by topography and soil characteristics helps characterize local‐scale reference hydrology and may contribute to better land management decisions.     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

Stormwater Control Measures for Runoff and Water Quality Management in Urban Landscapes

This study develops and tests a novel optimization method for optimally selecting and sizing stormwater control measures (SCMs) in urban landscapes for selected design storms. The developed methodology yields SCMs that capture and retain stormwater via onsite percolation, remove stormwater pollutants, and minimize stormwater control expenditures. The resulting environmental optimization problem involves integer and real variables imbedded in an objective function that is subjected to multiple constraints. This study's methodology aims at practicality and ease of implementation in the solution of the SCM sizing and selection optimization problem while taking into account the main factors that govern stormwater management in urban landscapes. The near‐optimal global solution of the SCM selection and design problem is obtained with nonlinear programming and verified with the average of multiple solutions calculated with multiple runs of an optimization evolutionary algorithm. The developed methodology is illustrated with one stormwater project in the City of Los Angeles, California.     

Situational Waste in Landscape Watering: Residential and Business Water Use in an Urban Utah Community1

Abstract: Landscape water conservation is an important issue for municipalities throughout the Western United States, and especially in Utah as rapid growth strains existing water supplies. We conducted interdisciplinary research in Layton, Utah, that aimed at understanding patterns of landscape water use among households and businesses. The research project involved three basic tasks. First, a landscape “water budget” was developed by producing a calibrated and classified mosaic of landscape type and area from airborne multispectral digital imagery, integrating this information with Layton City parcel boundary data to determine landscape vegetated areas per lot, and estimating irrigation needs derived from reference evapotranspiration (ETo) obtained using weather data for the Salt Lake City metropolitan region. Second, utilizing Layton water billing data, water use for each household and business was identified and categorized as “conserving,”“acceptable” or “wasteful” by determining how much the water applied varied from actual landscape plant need. Third, surveys were administered to a random stratified sample of households and businesses in the study area to investigate various factors that were hypothesized to be predictive of wasteful watering practices. This paper primarily focuses on analysis of the household and business survey data, which explores factors affecting urban landscape water use from a human behavioral perspective. We found that the most significant factors predicting actual water use were the type of irrigation system and whether the location was a household or business. Attitudinal and motivational characteristics were not consistently associated with water use. We found that wasteful watering is the result of many factors embedded in the complex context of urban landscapes. This implies that water conservation programs should identify potential wasteful users through analyses of water billing data and direct water conservation measures at these users by focusing on site‐specific evaluations and recommendations. Water audits or water checks are one such tool that some communities have employed to help people understand and assess the quantity of water needed by and applied to their landscapes. This approach provides an opportunity to evaluate situational constraints at particular locations and design appropriate strategies for reducing water waste.     

ONTARIO'S WATER TAKING PERMIT PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT. Most water takings in Ontario in excess of 10,000 gallons per day for purposes other than domestic, farm, or fire fighting require authorization by permit by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. The legislation imposes control beyond that under common law, but does not remove common-law obligations. Permits may not be assigned without the Ministry's consent and do not create property rights in water. Permits to take ground-water require permittees to ensure that sufficient water is made available for the needs of prior users who suffer serious water-supply interference due to the taking, or to reduce the rate and amount of taking. Permits to take surface water require permittees to maintain sufficient downstream flow to protect downstream uses of water and natural functions of streams. Specific permit requirements for city wells in the rural Hunsburger Creek basin protect existing well supplies and require maintenance of streamflow for pond levels and fish. Tobacco irrigation in the Big Creek basin reduced streamflow significantly and requires development of more detailed water-management plans for years of extreme demand. Ontario's permit program serves to resolve water-use conflicts, furnishes information on use and provides one means for implementing management plans.     

The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho1

Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.     

THE LEGALIZATION OF GROUNDWATER STORAGE1

ABSTRACT: California's courts have recently recognized the existence of underground aquifer storage rights that permit public agencies to (1) store imported waters in aquifers; (2) prevent others from expropriating that water; and (3) recapture the stored water when it is needed. The article describes the two appellate decisions that represent the common-law development of aquifer storage rights. Each decision related to separate aquifers that were subject to separate types of groundwater management programs. One decision involved an aquifer under the southeastern San Francisco Bay area that was managed under statutory authority and is entitled, Niles Sand and Gravel Co. v. Alameda County Water District 37 C.A.3d 924 (1974); cert. denied 419 US 869. The other decision involved an aquifer under Southern California's San Fernando Valley that was managed under judicial authority and is entitled, City of Los Angeles v. City of San Fernando 14 Cal.3d 199 (1975). The two decisions provide separate, but complimentary, public interest rationales for aquifer storage rights: (1) to protect water supplies necessary for the overlying community; and (2) to increase water supply efficiencies by using natural underground reservoirs wherever practicable. The Article reviews the relationship of aquifer storage rights to conventional groundwater rights and indicates aspects of the storage right that may need additional development.     

Water Prism: A Tool to Assess Water Availability Risk and Investigate Water Management Strategies

Water availability risk is a local issue best understood with watershed‐scale quantification of both withdrawal and consumptive demands in the context of available supply. Collectively, all water use sectors must identify, understand, and respond to this risk. A highly visual and computationally robust decision support tool, Water Prism, quantitatively explores mitigation responses to water risk on both a facility‐level and basin‐aggregated basis. Water Prism examines a basin water balance for a 40‐ to 60‐year planning horizon, distinguishes among water use sectors, and accounts for ecosystem water needs. The 2012 Texas State Water Plan was used to apply Water Prism to the Big Cypress‐Sulphur Basin (Texas). The case study showed Water Prism to be an accurate and convenient tool to provide fine‐scale understanding of water use in the context of available supply, evaluate multi‐sector combinations of conservation strategies, and quantify the effects of future demands and water availability. Analyses demonstrated water availability risks for rivers and reservoirs can vary within a basin and must be calculated independently, simulation of water balance conditions can help illuminate potential impacts of increasing demands, and scenario simulations can be used to evaluate relative conservation efficacy of different water resource management strategies for each sector. Based on case study findings, Water Prism can serve as a useful assessment tool for regional water planners.     

A SUCCESSFUL WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAM IN A SEMIARID REGION OF NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Ground water irrigation pumpage of the High Plains Aquifer is controlled at the state level in Texas and Oklahoma but at the regional level in Kansas and Nebraska. Critical declines in the aquifer that threatened the reliability of local public water supply wells prompted Nebraska's Upper Republican Natural Resources District (URNRD) to mandate water restrictions in 1978. Under current regulations, irrigators may not extract more than 1,842 millimeters of water per certified hectare (ha) in any five‐year period. Meter monitoring ensures that irrigators comply with restrictions. Farmers now incorporate irrigation scheduling into their cropping practices in order to meet URNRD controls. This study examines whether irrigators are using ground water efficiently while complying with pumpage limits. Crop irrigation requirements (CIR) from 1986 to 1999 were derived from a water balance approach incorporating Penman‐Monteith evapotranspira‐tion (ET) calculations from weather data supplied by the High Plains Climate Center automated weather station network. A ratio of average water pumped per well to the CIR was developed to verify irrigation efficiency. Results indicate that irrigation applications were less than CIR during most irrigation seasons. Irrigation efficiency increases can be attributed to crop rotations, favorable growing season precipitation, use of ET estimates to schedule irrigation, and water allocations limited to less than all certified hectares.     

Climatic Fluctuations and Forecasting of Streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin1

Abstract:  Water‐resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water‐resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25‐ to 30‐year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R² value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R² value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15.