流域管理体制研究

一个科学、合理的流域管理体制，是对流域的开发、利用和保护活动进行有效管理的先决条件，是实施流域可持续发展战略目标的基本组织保证。对我国现行的流域管理体制及其存在的问题作了较为深入的分析和研究，在此基础上提出了建立统一管理、垂直领导的流域管理新体制的主张，并对流域管理新体制的形成和运行提出了具体的建议。文章旨在为我国建立一个科学的流域管理体制提供一些研究意见。     

Providing sound theoretical roots to sustainability science: systems science and (second-order) cybernetics

After its infant stage, a new science usually starts reflexing on its identity and theoretical roots. Sustainability science is not an exception, and the needs of self-reflection are even more pressing because of its inter- and trans-disciplinary characters, which involve a plenty of different approaches, theories and practices. In fact, such a variety does not provide a consistent ground for its future development. Without a solid grounding on a reliable base, the plethora of different theories that currently crowds its arena could in the near future produce a rejection from disciplinary specialized researchers, thus confining sustainability science to a scientific fad. Convincing theoretical roots can be found in systems science and cybernetics, and in particular second-order cybernetics, once amended from autopoiesis theory and radical constructivism, which raise serious doubts of validity and applicability. If sustainability science acknowledged its systemic and cybernetic nature and adopted second-order cybernetics in its amended version, it would gain a powerful reference paradigm and a theoretical common denominator and language to support its researchers and facilitate their knowledge exchange. From their part, systems science and cybernetics would be better understood and embraced as powerful sources of knowledge for understanding modern challenging problems, and second-order cybernetics, after decades of scarce relevance for other scientific disciplines, would be revitalized and would finally evolve adequately in a promising science and social practice.     

构建人类命运共同体、应对气候变化与生态文明建设

全球气候变化给人类社会文明带来严峻挑战,需要人类社会采取共同措施和行动积极应对。应对全球气候变化是当今世界最能体现人类共同命运的领域,深度参与并积极推动全球气候治理体系改革和建设是中国推动构建人类命运共同体的重要实践,也是生态文明理论和实践的重要方面。应对气候变化是我国生态文明建设的重要内容和内在要求;以共同价值理念构建人类命运共同体,凝聚各国力量携手合作应对全球气候变化,是全球生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也为应对全球气候变化提供了良好载体和国际平台。文章通过分析可知,应对气候变化、生态文明建设与构建人类命运共同体三者之间,呈现出相互促进、和谐共生的"三位一体"特征;人与自然共生的生命共同体是前提条件,人类的任何实践活动都要以自然生态系统为基础和前提;人类命运共同体在整合各国力量方面,为生态文明建设提供了社会基础;生态文明包容各国文明,凝聚价值共识,成为生命共同体和人类命运共同体的价值导向。中国倡导人类命运共同体理念,是全球生态文明和人类命运共同体的积极倡导者、推动者和践行者,既为应对全球气候变化提供了价值基础,也提供了强有力的实践支撑;应对气候变化是全球生态文明建设和人类命运共同体构建的生动实践。因此,加强生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体,为全球应对气候变化提供了理论基础和国际平台,也将为全球可持续发展贡献中国智慧和中国案例。     

Site selection for a data centre – a multi-criteria decision-making model

IT data centres (DCs) are a huge investment and most mid-size companies need to set up their own DCs to run their business operations. Building new DCs is a time-consuming effort needing millions of dollars and months of planning. Companies cannot afford to make a wrong decision when designing and setting up a new DC as these need to build for a life of around 20 years. In this paper, we studied the challenges and issues faced by enterprise DCs and explored various criteria which can be used for selecting a site for a new DC. We use a hierarchical model to look into various financial, environmental, social, political and geographical factors which an organisation need to look into when choosing a city for their DC. The model discussed in the paper provides a general framework and can be adopted by a company operating in any industry and any country.     

Probabilistic risk assessment's use of trees and distributions to reflect uncertainty and variability and to overcome the limitations of default assumptions

Probabilistic risk assessment is an emerging approach to exposure assessment and quantitative cancer and non-cancer risk characterizations. The approach is easily extended to other types of risks and outcomes. A tree, like a decision tree or probability tree, encourages the evaluation of not only the default assumptions but also alternatives to those defaults, and reflects the uncertainty in the current state of knowledge. Trees are used in both the characterization of the dose received by individuals in a potential exposure situation and the characterization of the dose-response relationship for a specified response of concern. Probability distributions are used to reflect the variability in exposure, dose, and dose-response relationships among individuals and over time within individuals. Distributions incorporating variabilities, uncertainties, subjective probabilities, and expert judgments are used to characterize the probabilities of observing an individual in a population with a specified dose from exposure, with a specified probability of a certain adverse health effect for a designated dose, and with a specified probability of a certain adverse health effect (i.e., a specified risk). Some suggestions are given on how a risk manager can incorporate a distributional risk characterization into decision making. Some discussion is included concerning sensitivity analyses and path analyses. The major finding is methodology to explicitly incorporate variability, uncertainty, and alternatives to defaults into exposure, dose-response, and risk characterizations.     

基于二元水循环理论的水资源承载力质量能综合评价

水资源承载力是影响社会经济可持续发展的一个重要因素，水资源承载力的合理评定对于水资源的可持续利用及社会经济的发展规划具有重要指导意义。在“二元水循环”理论的基础上，提出了承载单元的概念，认为水资源是通过承载单元来实现对社会经济和自然环境的承载能力的。承载单元具有系统响应的特点，水资源在承载单元内将经过社会的外体循环及自然的内体循环，之后其水质、水量、水能3个方面的状态都会发生改变，其承载能力也会相应地发生改变。因此，以承载单元为研究对象，建立了质量能构架下水资源承载力的评价指标体系，并对水资源承载力进行了综合评价。最后以昆明市水资源承载力的分析评价为例，说明了该方法的实际应用     

Sustainable Development and Strategic Thinking

From an economic point of view, the industrial economy is efficient to overcome situations of a scarcity of goods. From a technological point of view, the resource efficiency of the manufacturing processes of the industrial economy has been permanently improved during the last 200 years. In addition, cleaner processes have been developed. However, from an ecologic point of view, an increasing world population with increasing consumption has produced a ＂global footprint＂ which approaches the carrying capacity of the planet. A circular economy and its high-value spin-offs-a lake economy and a performance or functional service economy-can fulfil customers＇ needs with considerably less resource consumption, less environmental impairment in production and considerably less end-of-life product waste, especially in situations of affluence, when a considerable stock of physical goods and infrastructures exists. Also, in situations of a scarcity of natural resources, both energy and materials, often characterised by rapidly rising resource prices, the economic actors of a circular economy have a high competitive advantage over the actors of the industrial economy, due to much lower procurement costs for materials and energy. From a social point of view, a circular economy increases the number of skilled jobs in regional enterprises. However, the shift from a linear manufacturing economy to a circular or service economy means a change in economic thinking from flow （throughput） management to stock （asset） management： in a manufacturing economy with largely unsaturated markets, total wealth increases through accumulation as resource throughput （flow） is transformed into a higher stock of goods of better quality （but in a manufacturing economy with largely saturated markets, wealth represented by the stock of goods will no longer increase）; in a circular or service economy, total wealth increases through a smart management of existing physical assets （stock） that are adapted to changes in both technology and customer demand. This second approach not only applies to physical capital but equally to social capital, such as health and education and green GDP. To measure the social wealth of a population, it is not the amount of money spent on schools and hospitals that matters, butif this expenditure has led to a better education of the students, and a better health of the people.     

An exploration of the potential for re-distributed manufacturing to contribute to a sustainable,resilient city*

Abstract

Re-distributed manufacturing (RDM), broadly described as manufacturing done at a smaller-scale and locally, could be beneficial to business and urban society through creating jobs, reducing the environmental impacts of production, and improving resilience to future disturbances. Consideration of RDM within a city-region requires the consideration of a wide range of issues – societal, technical, economic and environmental. This paper presents the results of a study into the potential for RDM to contribute to a sustainable, resilient city in the face of a range of expected future disturbances on the city and on manufacturing sectors. The study took an integrated assessment approach which incorporated the development of a conceptual framework; a ‘strawman’ causal loop diagram which was reviewed by participants in a workshop; and a stock and flow system dynamics model that represents our understanding about the structure and behaviour of urban manufacturing. Several key themes emerged: similarities between RDM and traditional manufacturing, availability of physical space for RDM to be done, achieving urban resilience through RDM by enabling responsiveness to disturbances, changes in environmental impacts from production, additions or losses in jobs, the competitiveness of local manufacturing, and skills and innovation for RDM technologies. Further work is recommended.     

Scientific understanding of stakeholders’ behavior in mining community

We attempt to understand, scientifically, how different members of the mining concession, impacted communities, and government authorities behave when a conflicting situation arises. The main purpose of our effort is to start developing a framework for the scientific modeling of stakeholders’ behavior, and we create a reality-driven generic scenario of conflict. We assume that the managers and superintendants of a mining operation currently envision a problem; one that tests the limits of the commitment of the company’s mission statement, and of the spectrum of actions taken which are embedded in the “culture” of the company’s corporate social responsibility. It is an “event” that highlights the nature of an overall problem that the company would like to predict and act proactively: the integration of scientific tools, sustainability, and cultural realities within a mining framework. We adapt an agent-based modeling approach and start with a theoretical understanding of certain social behavior, build a model, and simulate “what if” scenarios to understand its dynamics to gain a better insight of the complexity of a seemingly simple social system of interest.     

Culture,Progress and the Media: The Shad as Synecdoche in Environmental News Coverage

This essay examined the use of synecdoche in newspaper coverage of a dispute over water rights between the Mattaponi Indians and the city of Newport News, Virginia. The Mattaponi used the shad as a rhetorical trope to explain the tribe's relationship to the river and their fears about the reservoir's impact. The reservoir proponents, however, treated the shad as a representation of the conflict surrounding the reservoir, and this construction was reflected in articles that appeared in The Daily Press, a local daily newspaper. This essay argued that, ultimately, the treatment of a single species as a synecdoche in environmental disputes undermined the Mattaponi's position. The media which are instrumental in defining environmental issues for the public, misinterpreted a rhetorical trope that was proffered as a representation for a complex set of values and instead focused attention on the species itself rather than the values that it represented.     

Environmental Communication as a Discipline of Crisis

This essay interprets Cox's keynote as a call for environmental communication to reorient itself as a form of ideological criticism and identifies the potential pitfalls of heeding that call. First, the author revisits key arguments surrounding the practice of ideological criticism in Communication Studies and articulates their relevance to discussions about the mission and purpose of environmental communication. Second, he suggests that an uncritical embrace of the rationale for a “crisis discipline” may perpetuate problematic assumptions about communication, both as a social practice and as a scholarly discipline. Third, he argues that such problems may be sidestepped by making environmental crisis itself a central concept and object of environmental communication inquiry, such that environmental communication does not merely respond to crisis but becomes a discipline of and about crisis. A focus on the dynamics of crisis, the author concludes, entails a persistent concern with judgment in its political, scholarly, and pedagogical contexts.     

Mapping large areas of radioactively contaminated land with a self adapted, handheld, GPS coupled, scintillation detector

In Belgium, during several decennia, a phosphate plant discharged radium chloride containing waste water into two small rivers. One of those is part of a hydrographically very complex ecosystem with lots of small tributaries and hundreds of hectares of flooding zones. Hence, the river banks and large parts of these flooding zones have become contaminated with radium, heavy metals and chlorides. During a foot campaign, using a home made portable data logging system, consisting of a commercial 2.5 kg NaI detector, a computer mouse sized GPS, and a small pocket PC, the radioactive contamination of about 600 ha of sometimes very rough terrain was measured and mapped. The resulting very detailed radium contamination maps shed a whole new light on the water flow patterns of the ecosystem. The apparatus can also be used for efficiently guiding sampling campaigns for investigating other types of contamination. The ground maps are also compared to existing maps from helicopter measurements, evaluating strengths and weaknesses from both methods.     

近50年来鄱阳湖流域降雨多时间尺度变化规律研究

利用鄱阳湖流域16个气象站1960~2008年共49 a的月降雨资料，采用Morlet小波函数，对该流域降雨季节变化、年际和年代际时间序列进行小波分析，揭示了流域降雨变化的多时间尺度特征，分析了不同时间尺度下降雨序列变化的周期和突变点。研究表明：①1960~1990年，年降雨量呈明显年际和代际振荡，并无显著趋势；进入90年代以后，年降雨呈现显著上升趋势；进入21世纪，尤其从2002年开始，年降雨量开始减少；②流域季节降雨和年降雨都存在多时间尺度特征，夏季降雨、冬季降雨和年降雨都存在18 a的第一主周期；春季、冬季和年降雨存在6 a次主周期；此外，春季、秋季、冬季和年降雨均存在3 a次主周期；③夏季降雨在18 a时间尺度上与年降雨变化具有相同的趋势和相位，春季降雨在3 a和6 a时间尺度上与年降雨变化具有相似趋势和相位变化     

Induction of EROD activity in European eel (Anguilla anguilla) experimentally exposed to benzo[a]pyrene and beta-naphthoflavone

The induction of liver ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity was investigated in the European eel, Anguilla anguilla, collected from a Mediterranean brackish environment and experimentally exposed to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) and beta-naphthoflavone (BNF). Eels were injected intraperitoneally at increasing doses (0.1, 1, 10, and 50 mg/kg wet body weight) using corn oil as a carrier and sacrificed after 7 days. The main objectives of the present study are: (1). to assess of the sensitivity of EROD induction as a biomarker to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure; (2). to determine an EROD dose-response relationship of the contaminants used; and (3). to compare the efficiency of B[a]P and BNF as inducers of EROD activity. Results showed that both chemicals resulted in a dose-dependent EROD induction, but increases were not linear. EROD activity seemed to reach a plateau at the exposure of 10 mg/kg in both treatment groups; B[a]P was a more potent inducer than BNF was at the higher doses (10 and 50 mg/kg), while the opposite result was observed at the lower ones (0.1 and 1 mg/kg). The greatest induction occurred in eels treated with 10 mg/kg B[a]P, in which a 261-fold increase in EROD activity was observed. Results showed that EROD activity in A. anguilla is significantly induced by B[a]P and BNF exposure, responding to a wide range of concentrations of these contaminants. We infer that this tool may be suited as a diagnostic biomarker for biomonitoring PAHs pollution in Mediterranean brackish environments and further field research is suggested.     

Hierarchical priority setting for restoration in a watershed in NE Spain, based on assessments of soil erosion and ecosystem services

Maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services through the restoration of degraded ecosystems have become an important biodiversity conservation strategy. Deciding where to restore ecosystems for the attainment of multiple services is a key issue for future planning, management, and human well-being. Most restoration projects usually entail a small number of actions in a local area and do not consider the potential benefits of planning restoration at broad regional scales. We developed a hierarchical priority setting approach to evaluate the performance of restoration measures in a semiarid basin in NE Spain (the Martín River Basin, 2,112 km²). Our analysis utilized a combination of erosion (a key driver of degradation in this Mediterranean region) and six spatially explicit ecosystem services data layers (five of these maps plotted surrogates for soil retention and accumulation, water supply and regulation, and carbon storage, and one plotted a cultural service, ecotourism). Hierarchical maps were generated using a geographic information system that combined areas important for providing a bundle of ecosystem services, as state variables, with erosion maps, as the disturbance or regulatory variable. This was performed for multiple scales, thereby identifying the most adequate scale of analysis and establishing a spatial hierarchy of restoration actions based on the combination of the evaluation of erosion rates and the provision of ecosystem services. Our approach provides managers with a straightforward method for determining the spatial distribution of values for a set of ecosystem services in relation to ecological degradation thresholds and for allocating efforts and resources for restoration projects in complex landscapes.     

Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

The cradle of the city: the environmental imprint of Brussels and its hinterland in the High Middle Ages

As a popular assumption, the cities are considered to exert a major impact on their hinterland. In fact, little is known about this imprint on the earlier period. This paper will thus try to delineate as far as possible urban and rural contributions to the imprint by using a cause and effect analysis. The paper argues that the birth of second generation cities like Brussels is the result of a demographic and economic process occurring in the rural environment. Above all in a second phase, once the process of human concentration within the city initiated and the town became a market center and a consumer power, rural developments changed under the urban imprint: at that moment the city imposed a certain spatial structure on the rural system with intensive and high profitability cultures replacing extensive practices.     

大庆市城市经济系统可持续性评价

三角模型作为一种直观的平台能够很好地图解区域可持续综合发展状况及长期趋势.由于具有直观性和简明性,三角模型易于被不同层次的学者和政策制定者理解和应用.根据经济发展、资源-能源消耗及环境污染的相互关系,结合生态学表现,利用三角模型工具分析评估区域经济可持续发展状况和长期趋势.本文选择我国最大的石油资源型城市--大庆市作为典型案例.大庆市位于黑龙江省西部,下辖5个区和4个县,2006年全市土地总面积为2.1219万hm2,总人口269.3万.结果表明,大庆市经济系统可持续性状况不容乐观,"八五"、"九五"时期处于不可持续和弱可持续性状态,"十五"中后期才缓慢进入一般可持续性状态;"八五"时期大庆市经济系统具有一般可持续性发展趋势,"九五"时期呈现强可持续性发展趋势,进入新世纪后却呈现出由强可持续性向一般可持续性的发展趋势.     

我国荒漠化基本特点及加快荒漠化地区发展的意义

我国是世界上受荒漠化危害最严重的国家之一，荒漠化面积大、分布广、程度重、扩展快，危害深。虽然荒漠化治理取得了一定成就，但只是局部地区得到了治理，荒漠化整体上仍在扩展，这些严重制约了荒漠化地区乃至我国人口、资源与环境的协调发展。荒漠化地区在我国国民经济、社会发展和环境保护等方面具有举足轻重的地位，防治荒漠化对于缩小东西部差距、消除贫困、促进荒漠化地区以及整个中国经济的腾飞具有重要意义。     

Radioprotection of nonhuman biota

Radioprotection has historically focused on humans with the assumption that human protection confers protection of nonhuman biota. However, there is a need to scientifically and independently demonstrate protection of nonhuman biota. Approaches to address impacts of radiation on nonhuman biota include applying an ecological risk assessment paradigm, setting dose limits, defining reference organisms, and assessing a geographic region. Recommendations include harmonization of a radioprotection framework for both humans and nonhuman biota, a consistent methodology to evaluate radionuclide and nonradionuclide contaminants, a graded assessment approach, development of dosimetric models for reference organisms, compilation of a radiological effects database, and periodic expert review of methodology.