Impact of Dredging on Phosphorus Transport in Agricultural Drainage Ditches of the Atlantic Coastal Plain1

Abstract: Drainage ditches can be a key conduit of phosphorus (P) between agricultural soils of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and local surface waters, including the Chesapeake Bay. This study sought to quantify the effect of a common ditch management practice, sediment dredging, on fate of P in drainage ditches. Sediments from two drainage ditches that had been monitored for seven years and had similar characteristics (flow, P loadings, sediment properties) were sampled (0‐5 cm) after one of the ditches had been dredged, which removed fine textured sediments (clay = 41%) with high organic matter content (85 g/kg) and exposed coarse textured sediments (clay = 15%) with low organic matter content (2.2 g/kg). Sediments were subjected to a three‐phase experiment (equilibrium, uptake, and release) in recirculating 10‐m‐long, 0.2‐m‐wide, and 5‐cm‐deep flumes to evaluate their role as sources and sinks of P. Under conditions of low initial P concentrations in flume water, sediments from the dredged ditch released 13 times less P to the water than did sediments from the ditch that had not been dredged, equivalent to 24 mg dissolved P. However, the sediments from the dredged ditch removed 19% less P (76 mg) from the flume water when it was spiked with dissolved P to approximate long‐term runoff concentrations. Irradiation of sediments to destroy microorganisms revealed that biological processes accounted for up to 30% of P uptake in the coarse textured sediments of the dredged ditch and 18% in the fine textured sediments of the undredged ditch. Results indicate that dredging of coastal plain drainage ditches can potentially impact the P buffering capacity of ditches draining agricultural soils with a high potential for P runoff.     

Water-Quality Performance of a Constructed Stormwater Wetland for All Flow Conditions1

Wadzuk, Bridget M., Matthew Rea, Gregg Woodruff, Kelly Flynn, and Robert G. Traver, 2010. Water-Quality Performance of a Constructed Stormwater Wetland for All Flow Conditions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):385-394. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00408.x Abstract: Results from a multiyear study demonstrate that a constructed stormwater wetland (CSW) improves urban stormwater runoff quality mitigating downstream impacts. Best management practices, such as CSWs, can comprehensively treat the various scales of stormwater runoff issues. Discrete sample analysis was used to investigate the CSW effect for storm events and base-flow periods on water-quality parameters [i.e., total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, total nitrogen, phosphorous (total and reactive), chloride, heavy metals (zinc, lead, and copper), and Escherichia coli]. The primary finding was that stormwater sediment load was removed through the CSW for all flow conditions during all seasons. The mechanisms responsible for the removal of suspended solids, including slower flow velocity, longer retention times, and vegetative contact, also reduced the mass of nutrients discharged downstream throughout the year. Exceedance probabilities were used to evaluate the expected pollutant reductions of nutrients and to incorporate the effect of natural flow variation on quality. Other findings included the observation that there was no significant difference in the performance of the CSW over two-year-long periods four years apart, indicating that a CSW is effective for an extended period.     

Variation of Nitrogen Concentrations in Stormpipe Discharge in a Residential Watershed1

Abstract: Use of lawn chemicals in residential areas may contribute nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants, such as nutrients, pesticides, and herbicides to streams. We conducted a 2‐year screening study of discharge in stormwater pipes in the Wissahickon Valley Watershed (suburban Philadelphia) using nitrogen as an indicator of lawn chemical use. Stormwater samples representing first flush and composite runoff were collected approximately twice a month using automatic samplers triggered by rise in water level during storms. The runoff collected by the stormpipes was from neighborhoods with 15‐100 residences, and from 2 to 18 ha (5‐45 acres). Several factors were examined to evaluate the effects on nitrate concentration. These factors included time of sampling (season), number of homes, total area, size of the storm, and time since last storm. Nitrate levels were generally less than 5 mg/l, but still above background in typical undeveloped areas. Concentrations were slightly higher in the first summer than during a drought in the second year, but the difference was not statistically significant. There was a positive correlation between size of the neighborhood (capture area) and peak concentration of nitrate. Storm characteristics (size of storm and time since last storm) did not correlate with nitrate concentrations. The variation in both space and time suggests that a more local control may be a factor. Although individual lawn chemical applications were not monitored, they may influence the timing of increased loading. Furthermore, the variability indicates that quarterly monitoring will not capture discharge characteristics of storm basins.     

WATER QUALITY CONCERNS AND REGULATORY CONTROLS FOR NONSTORM WATER DISCHARGES TO STORM DRAINS1

ABSTRACT: Nonstorm water discharges to municipal separate storm sewer systems (MS4s) are notable for spatial and temporal variability in volume, pollutant type, pollutant concentration, and activity of origin. The objective of this paper was to determine whether current technical knowledge and existing U.S. policy support an improved regulatory approach. The proposed policy would use type of discharge as a regulatory basis, merging the concepts of allowability of de minimis discharges and type-based statewide consistent rules. Specific research objectives were to comprehensively identify discharge types, characterize their prevalence in California, analyze relevant local and regional regulatory guidelines, and systematically evaluate opinions of experts about potential water quality impacts. Results demonstrate nonstorm water discharges were widespread in at least one sector, industrial facilities subject to a state permit; one discharge for every four facilities was reported in 1995, even though the permit explicitly prohibits such discharges. Clear consensus exists for minimal water quality concern for some discharge types when considering both municipal guidelines and experts’ opinions. In particular, condensate from a wide range of equipment and discharges from fire fighting equipment testing were found to be of low concern. Discharge types with consensus high concern were largely limited to discharges prohibited under other regulations, such as wastewater and hazardous waste management controls. Some discharge types where no consensus was identified, such as landscape irrigation, nevertheless generated concern for water quality impacts and appear to be relatively widespread. Available information supports technical feasibility of the proposed policy because at least some discharge types show strong consensus for de minimis impacts among regulatory guidelines and opinions of technical experts.     

Review of Urban Stormwater Quality Models: Deterministic,Stochastic, and Hybrid Approaches1

Abstract: The growing impact of urban stormwater on surface‐water quality has illuminated the need for more accurate modeling of stormwater pollution. Water quality based regulation and the movement towards integrated urban water management place a similar demand for improved stormwater quality model predictions. The physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect stormwater quality need to be better understood and simulated, while acknowledging the costs and benefits that such complex modeling entails. This paper reviews three approaches to stormwater quality modeling: deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid. Six deterministic, three stochastic, and three hybrid models are reviewed in detail. Hybrid approaches show strong potential for reducing stormwater quality model prediction error and uncertainty. Improved stormwater quality models will have wide ranging benefits for combined sewer overflow management, total maximum daily load development, best management practice design, land use change impact assessment, water quality trading, and integrated modeling.     

A MODELING APPROACH FOR STORM WATER QUANTITY AND QUALITY CONTROL VIA DETENTION BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Storm water detention basins have historically been employed for quantity (i.e., flooding) control only. However, recently it has been suggested that these basins may also provide a practical means of storm water quality control. This paper presents the formulation of a mathematical modeling approach which may be used by professionals to simultaneously design detention basins for the dual purpose of storm water quantity and quality control. Model simulations demonstrate that for a given basin, pollutant removal increases as storm frequency increases. The importance of particle size distribution and settling velocity for net pollutant removal is illustrated, The design procedure is demonstrated, and pollutant loading diagrams for estimating pollutant removal as a function of storm size are developed.     

REEXAMINING BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR IMPROVING WATER QUALITY IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Municipalities will be implementing structural best management practices at increasing rates in their effort to comply with Phase II of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). However, there is evidence that structural best management practices (BMPs) by themselves may be insufficient to attain desired water quality standards. This paper reports on an analysis of the median removal efficiencies of structural BMPs and compares them to removal efficiencies estimated as being necessary to attain water quality standards in the Rouge River in Detroit, Michigan. Eight water quality parameters are reviewed using data collected from 1994 to 1999 in the Rouge River. Currently, five of the eight parameters in the Rouge River including bacteria, biochemical oxygen demand, and total suspended solids (TSS) exceed the required water quality standards. The reported analysis of structural BMP efficiencies reveals that structural BMPs appear capable of reducing only some of the pollutants of concern to acceptable levels.     

WATER QUALITY TRAP EFFICIENCY OF STORM WATER MANAGEMENT BASINS1

ABSTRACT: While the quality of rivers has received much attention, the degradation of small streams in upland areas of watersheds has only recently been recognized as a major problem. A major cause of the problem is increases in nonpoint source pollution that accompany urban expansion. A case study is used to examine the potential for storm water detention as a means of controlling water quality in streams of small watersheds. The storm water management basin, which is frequently used to control increases in discharge rates, can also be used to reduce the level of pollutants in inflow to receiving streams. Data collected on a 148-acre site in Maryland shows that a detention basin can trap as much as 98 percent of the pollutant in the inflow. For the 11 water quality parameters, most showed reductions of at least 60 percent, depending on storm characteristics.     

Linking Nitrogen Export to Landscape Heterogeneity: The Role of Infrastructure and Storm Flows in a Mediterranean Urban System

Urban ecosystems are often sources of nonpoint source (NPS) nitrogen (N) pollution to aquatic ecosystems. However, N export from urban watersheds is highly variable. Examples of densely urbanized watersheds are not well studied, and these may have comparatively low export rates. Commonly used metrics of landscape heterogeneity may obscure our ability to discern relationships among landscape characteristics that can explain these lower export rates. We expected that differences not often captured by these metrics in the relative cover of vegetation, structures, and impervious surfaces would better explain observed variation in N export. We examined these relationships during storms in residential watersheds. Contrary to expectations, land cover did not directly predict variation in N or water export. Instead, N export was strongly linked to drainage infrastructure density. Our research highlights the role of fine‐scaled landscape attributes, mainly infrastructure, in explaining patterns of N export from densely urbanized watersheds. Changes to hydrologic flow paths by infrastructure explained more variation in N export than land cover. Our findings support further development of landscape ecological models of urban N export that focus on hydrologic modification by infrastructure rather than traditional landscape measures such as land use, as indicators for evaluating patterns of NPS nitrogen pollution in densely urbanized watersheds.     

Weighting Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pixel Pollutant Loads to Represent Runoff and Buffering Likelihoods

Watershed models often estimate annual nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) pollutant loads in rural areas with export coefficient (EC) (kg/ha/yr) values based on land cover, and in urban areas as the product of spatially uniform event mean concentration (EMC) (mg/L) values and runoff volume. Actual N and P nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant loading has more spatial complexity due to watershed variation in runoff likelihood and buffering likelihood along surface and subsurface pathways, which can be represented in a contributing area dispersal area (CADA) NPS model. This research develops a CADA NPS model to simulate how watershed properties of elevation, land cover, and soils upslope and downslope of each watershed pixel influence nutrient loading. The model uses both surface and subsurface runoff indices (RI), and surface and subsurface buffer indices (BI), to quantify the runoff and buffering likelihood for each watershed pixel, and generate maps of weighted EC and EMC values that identify NPS pollutant loading hotspots. The research illustrates how CADA NPS model maps and pixel loading values are sensitive to the spatial resolution and accuracy of elevation and land cover data, and model predictions can represent the lower and upper bounds of NPS loading. The model provides managers with a tool to rapidly visualize, rank, and investigate likely areas of high nutrient export.     

A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States1

García, Ana María, Anne B. Hoos, and Silvia Terziotti, 2011. A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):991‐1010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00517.x Abstract: We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land‐to‐water transport variables are significant (p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long‐term log‐transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land‐to‐water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land‐to‐water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land‐to‐water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state‐developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil‐parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.     

Stormwater Runoff Quality and Quantity From Traditional and Low Impact Development Watersheds1

Abstract: The quality and quantity of residential stormwater runoff from a control, traditional, and low impact development (LID) watershed were compared in a paired watershed study. A traditional neighborhood was built using typical subdivision standards while a LID design was constructed with best management practices including grass swales, cluster housing, shared driveways, rain gardens, and a narrower pervious concrete‐paver road. Weekly, flow‐weighted, composite samples of stormwater were analyzed for nitrate + nitrite‐nitrogen (NO₃ + NO₂‐N), ammonia‐nitrogen (NH₃‐N), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended solids (TSS). Monthly composite samples were analyzed for total copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). Mean weekly storm flow increased (600x) from the traditional watershed in the postconstruction period. Increased exports of TKN, NO₃ + NO₂‐N, NH₃‐N, TP, Cu, Zn, and TSS in runoff were associated with the increased storm flow. Postconstruction storm flow in the LID watershed was reduced by 42% while peak discharge did not change from preconstruction conditions. Exports were reduced from the LID watershed for NH₃‐N, TKN, Pb, and Zn, while TSS and TP exports increased.     

HERBICIDES AND DEGRADATES IN SHALLOW AQUIFERS OF ILLINOIS: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRENDS1

ABSTRACT: During the fall of 2000, the occurrence was examined of 16 herbicides and 13 herbicide degradates in samples from 55 wells in shallow aquifers underlying grain producing regions of Illinois. Herbicide compounds with concentrations above 0.05 μg/L were detected in 56 percent of the samples. No concentrations exceeded regulatory drinking water standards. The six most frequently detected compounds were degradates. Water age was an important factor in determining vulnerability of ground water to transport of herbicide compounds. Unconsolidated aquifers, which were indicated to generally contain younger ground water than bedrock aquifers, had a higher occurrence of herbicides (73 percent of samples) than bedrock aquifers (22 percent). Temporal analysis to determine if changes in concentrations of selected herbicides and degradates could be observed over a near decadal period indicated a decrease in detection frequency (25 to 18 percent) between samplings in 1991 and 2000. Over this period, significant differences in concentrations were observed for atrazine (decrease) and total acetochlor (increase). The increase in acetochlor compound concentrations corresponds to an increase in acetochlor use during the study period, while the decrease in atrazine concentrations corresponds to relatively consistent use of atrazine. Changes in frequency of herbicide detection and concentration do not appear related to changes in land use near sampled wells.     

Model Calculations of Total Maximum Daily Loads of Mercury for Drainage Lakes1

Abstract: The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework watershed model was enhanced to simulate the transport and fate of mercury and to calculate the fish mercury concentrations (FMC) attained by fish through the food web. The model was applied to Western Lake Superior Basin of Minnesota, which has many peat lands and lakes. Topographic, land use, and soil data were used to set up the model. Meteorology and precipitation chemistry data from nearby monitoring stations were compiled to drive the model. Simulated flow and mercury concentrations for several stream stations were comparable to available data. The model was used to perform mercury total maximum daily load calculations for two contrasting drainage lakes (Wild Rice Lake and Whiteface Reservoir). The model results for wet deposition, dry deposition, evasion, watershed yield, and soil sequestration of mercury were comparable with available actual data. The model predicted lake ice cover from November to April and weak stratification in summer, typical of shallow lakes in cold regions. The simulated sulfate decrease and methylmercury increase near the lake bottom in late summer are caused by sulfate reduction and mercury methylation that occur in the surficial sediment. Simulated FMC were within the range of observed values and the R² of correlation between the simulated and observed FMC was 0.77. Under the 1989‐2004 base condition, the average simulated FMC of four‐year‐old walleye was 0.31 μg/g for Whiteface Reservoir and 0.15 μg/g for Wild Rice Lake. The FMC criterion in Minnesota is 0.2 μg/g. Wild Rice Lake already meets this criterion without any load reduction. The model showed that a 65% reduction in atmospheric mercury deposition will not, by itself, allow Whiteface Reservoir to meet the criterion in 15 years. Additional best management practices will be needed to reduce 50% of the watershed input.     

Variations in Base‐Flow Nitrate Flux in a First‐Order Stream and Riparian Zone1

Abstract: Nonpoint source pollution, which contributes to contamination of surface waters, is difficult to control. Some pollutants, particularly nitrate (), are predominantly transmitted through ground water. Riparian buffer zones have the potential to remove contaminants from ground water and reduce the amount of that enters surface water. This is a justification for setting aside vegetated buffer strips along waterways. Many riparian zone hydrologic models assume uniform ground‐water flow through organic‐rich soil under reducing conditions, leading to effective removal of ground‐water prior to discharge into a stream. However, in a small first‐order stream in the mid‐Atlantic coastal plain, base‐flow generation was highly variable (spatially and temporally). Average base‐flow loads were greater in winter than summer, and higher during a wetter year than in dryer years. Specific sections of the stream consistently received greater amounts of high ground water than others. Areas within the riparian zone responsible for most of the exported from the watershed are termed “critical areas.” Over this 5‐year study, most of the exported during base flow originated from a critical area comprising less than 10% of the total riparian zone land area. Allocation of resources to address and improve mitigation function in critical areas should be a priority for continued riparian zone research.     

Thermal Characteristics of Stormwater Runoff from Asphalt and Sod Surfaces1

Abstract: Urban impervious surfaces absorb and store thermal energy, particularly during warm summer months. During a rainfall/runoff event, thermal energy is transferred from the impervious surface to the runoff, causing it to become warmer. As this higher temperature runoff enters receiving waters, it can be harmful to coldwater habitat. In an urban watershed, impervious asphalt surfaces (roads, parking lots, and driveways) and pervious residential lawns comprise a significant portion of the watershed area. A paired asphalt‐turfgrass sod plot was constructed to compare the thermal runoff characteristics between asphalt and turfgrass sod surfaces, to identify meteorological variables that influence these thermal characteristics, and to evaluate evaporative heat loss for runoff from asphalt surfaces. Rainfall simulations were conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 under a range of climatic conditions. Asphalt surface temperatures immediately prior to rainfall simulations averaged 43.6°C and decreased an average of 12.3°C over 60 min as rain cooled the surface. In contrast, presimulation sod surface temperatures averaged only 23.3°C and increased an average of 1.3°C throughout the rainfall events. Heat transferred from the asphalt to the runoff resulted in initial asphalt runoff temperatures averaging 35.0°C that decreased by an average of 4.1°C at the end of the event. Sod runoff temperatures averaged only 25.5°C and remained fairly constant throughout the simulations. Multivariable regression equations were developed to predict (1) average asphalt surface temperature (R² = 0.90) and average asphalt runoff temperature (R² = 0.92) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, and wind speed, and (2) average sod surface temperature (R² = 0.85) and average sod runoff temperature (R² = 0.94) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, rain intensity, and wind speed. Based on a heat balance analysis, existing evaporation equations developed from studies on lakes were not adequate to predict evaporation from runoff on a heated impervious surface. The combined heat from the asphalt and sod plots was an average of 38% less than the total heat had the total area consisted solely of asphalt.     

MODELING THE BUILDUP AND WASHOFF OF POLLUTANTS ON URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for urban stormwater quality was developed in this study. The basis for the model is the process by which pollutants build up on the watershed surface. For the wet climate of the study site, it was assumed that there exists an interval of time over which the pollutant buildup equals the pollutant washoff (no accumulation of pollutant). The buildup model was represented by a linear function of the antecedent dry time. The buildup function was then linked with a pollutant washoff model represented by a power function of the storm runoff volume. Various time intervals for no net accumulation were tested to calibrate the model. The model was calibrated to observed data for two small urban basins in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and model results were used to analyze the behavior of phosphorus concentrations in storm runoff from these basins over a long period of time.     

Release,Dispersion, and Resuspension of Escherichia coli From Direct Fecal Deposits Under Controlled Flows1

Abstract: Water‐quality standards have been placed on fecal indicator organisms such as Escherichia coli in an attempt to limit the concentrations in water bodies. Cattle can be a significant source of bacteria to water systems, particularly when they are allowed direct access to streams. A flume study was conducted to quantify the effect and understand the transport of E. coli from directly deposited cattle manure. Five steady‐state flows, ranging from 0.00683 to 0.0176 m³/s, were studied and loads from a single cowpie exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended water‐quality standards (235 CFU/100 ml) at each flow over the hour study period. Average E. coli concentrations ranged from 10² to 10⁵ CFU/100 ml over the hour sampling period for all flows. High spatial variations in E. coli concentrations were often seen at each sampling time, with higher concentrations typically at the bottom of the flume. E. coli resuspension was initially greater at 0.5 min after deposition, for the lowest flow (10⁵ CFU/m²/s); however, resuspension rates became similar over time, on the order of 10³ CFU/m²/s. This study demonstrates that the concentrations of E. coli can vary over the water column, and therefore grab samples may inaccurately measure bacteria concentrations and loads in streams. In addition, resuspension rates were often high, so the incorporation of this process into water‐quality models is important for bacteria prediction.     

Toward an Alignment of Stormwater Flow and Urban Space

Urban stormwater practices are individually diverse, but they are components of an overall urban watershed system. This study proposes a conceptual model of that system, including its component spatial areas, their arrangement along the flow route, and their associations with urban land uses and values. The model defines three spatial areas along the flow route which have evolved over time into their present forms: (1) the source area, which is arranged and furnished primarily or entirely for human use, accommodation, and comfort; (2) the perimeter area, where specialized stormwater facilities carry away source‐area runoff or buffer downstream areas from its impacts; and (3) the downstream area, which receives the discharges from the perimeter or directly from the source area. Each area presents a specific combination of stormwater features and human interactions, and excludes others. Considering stormwater flows and functions in the context of physical urban spaces brings into view the spaces’ urban structures and interacting agendas. This model allows practitioners to navigate conceptually through the system, and to focus appropriate objectives and structures on each project site.     

Dry Weather Water Quality Loadings in Arid,Urban Watersheds of the Los Angeles Basin,California, USA1

Abstract: Dry weather runoff in arid, urban watersheds may consist entirely of treated wastewater effluent and/or urban nonpoint source runoff, which can be a source of bacteria, nutrients, and metals to receiving waters. Most studies of urban runoff focus on stormwater, and few have evaluated the relative contribution and sources of dry weather pollutant loading for a range of constituents across multiple watersheds. This study assessed dry weather loading of nutrients, metals, and bacteria in six urban watersheds in the Los Angeles region of southern California to estimate relative sources of each constituent class and the proportion of total annual load that can be attributed to dry weather discharge. In each watershed, flow and water quality were sampled from storm drain and treated wastewater inputs, as well as from in‐stream locations during at least two time periods. Data were used to calculate mean concentrations and loads for various sources. Dry weather loads were compared with modeled wet weather loads under a range of annual rainfall volumes to estimate the relative contribution of dry weather load. Mean storm drain flows were comparable between all watersheds, and in all cases, approximately 20% of the flowing storm drains accounted for 80% of the daily volume. Wastewater reclamation plants (WRP) were the main source of nutrients, storm drains accounted for almost all the bacteria, and metals sources varied by constituent. In‐stream concentrations reflected major sources, for example nutrient concentrations were highest downstream of WRP discharges, while in‐stream metals concentrations were highest downstream of the storm drains with high metals loads. Comparison of wet vs. dry weather loading indicates that dry weather loading can be a significant source of metals, ranging from less than 20% during wet years to greater than 50% during dry years.