多风机多级机站通风系统优化的模糊群体决策法

矿井通风系统是一个复杂的非线性系统，具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性特征。为了实现矿井通风的系统安全，对系统的安全性进行了定性、定量的预测分析和安全评价。按目标分层，用分层模糊优选理论对矿井通风系统设计方案进行优选，分层时允许评价因素重叠，从而便于确定目标与评价因素的权重。对矿井通风系统建立了多个设计方案的评判指标体系，并应用模糊群体决策确定矿井通风系统方案评判指标的权值，研究成果已应用于中条山有色金属公司胡家峪铜矿通风系统优化研究中，获得了满意的结果。     

GIS在化工园区事故应急救援辅助决策中的应用

采用GIS平台与应急决策支持技术相结合,以园区高危工艺和重大危险源作为分析对象,开发化工园区安全管理系统中的应急救援辅助决策模块,针对园区内高危工艺或重大危险源事故后果预测与事故应急救援管理的科学性和有效性,扩展为对整个化工园区的事故风险管理与事故应急救援辅助决策支持。运用该模块可实现园区内突发事故后果预测、最优救援和疏散路径规划、应急辅助决策方案生成,有效提高化工园区事故救援的科学性和效率,减少人员伤亡和财产损失,提高化工园区安全管理水平。     

Stress and team performance: principles and challenges for intelligent decision aids

Advances in computer technology and artificial intelligence are providing powerful capabilities for developing intelligent decision aids (IDAs) to support operating teams in managing complex systems. Early system designs, which acted as independent computer advisors, constrained human decision making, were brittle and encountered problems of user acceptance. As a result, there has been a shift towards making IDAs more cooperative in assisting users to make decisions under stress. Although there is a growing body of research on how to design IDAs as collaborate team players, this article provides additional insights by focusing on the competencies manifested by efficient teams in adapting to stress. To this extent, a survey of how teams adapt their decision-making strategies, cooperation patterns and team structure has provided a good basis for proposing design principles for collaborative IDAs. The article concludes with some challenges for further developments in information technology and research needs in the area of teamwork under stress.     

Investing in safety an analytical precautionary principle

PROBLEM: Governments and businesses must respond to increasing safety requirements and balance the associated costs with productivity and competing pressures. METHOD: A real options approach has been introduced for decision making in the private sector; this approach is adapted for regulatory decisions that can involve irreversible and uncertain safety impacts, social costs that differ from private costs, and differences in perception among the stakeholders. RESULT AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT: The outcome is an economic decision gage that determines if it is optimal to invest in safety even if the estimated costs significantly exceed the estimated benefits. Applications potentially include safety decisions related to aviation, ground transportation, pipelines, nuclear facilities, natural disaster planning, and terrorism, among others.     

The politics of employment liability

Employment liability is an important check and balance against employee harm at work. In practice, however, an inadvertent consequence of employment liability is a potential shift in power from organizations to employees that affects subsequent managerial decision making. In this Incubator, we discuss behavioral and attitudinal ramifications of employment liability at work. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relocation decision‐making and couple relationships: a quantitative and qualitative study of dual‐earner couples

We present the results of two empirical studies of the relocation decision‐making process of dual‐earner couples. The first study is a quantitative survey of 155 management‐level employees and focuses on the variables likely to moderate the influence of the spouse (partner) on the probability of accepting or turning down geographical mobility. The second complementary study is qualitative, consisting of 11 in‐depth interviews of dual‐earner couples; it attempts to identify the dynamics within the couple when making relocation decisions. We found that the couple's decision‐making process in the face of a transfer proposition is above all a search for compromise solutions that are a function of the respective occupational and family roles within the couple as well as their expectations of how to organize their life as a couple. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

Information processing style and decision making

Information processing style, often termed cognitive style, has gained prominence in the organizational behavior literature as researchers use it as a basis for studying decision making behavior, conflict, strategy development, and group processes. However, the many operational definitions and measures of cognitive style have produced inconsistent and confusing results. This study tested the interrelationship among four measures of this construct: the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator, the Group Embedded Figures Test, the Learning Styles Inventory, and the Decision Style Inventory. Measures that appeared to be conceptually linked through their underlying theories were compared. Results indicate that the various measures are not strongly interrelated and appear to be measuring different aspects of information processing and decision making. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于LCS的应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型

作为应急管理中的主要工作内容,应急决策在整个应急管理工作中具有战略意义,为了对危机情境下的应急决策主体进行聚类分析,定量计算不同决策主体之间相应决策文本的区别。借鉴最长公共子序列模型（LCS）的原理,从决策文本中提取主题词,根据决策文本的特点将其分为“目标”和“行动”2级,结合样本总体确定替换矩阵、空位罚分规则和目标函数,构建高层应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型;运用Needleman Wunsch算法对该模型进行求解;通过对得到的地震情景下的高层应急决策文本的分析,证明模型的有效性和可行性;为了避免序列长度差过大对聚类分析的结果影响,在此基础上提出相对相似性得分的概念,并通过与VSM算法得到的结果进行比较,证明该模型在应急决策文本相似性分析中的优越性。     

灾难事件后继风险决策

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。     

基于演练决策文本分析的决策者分类及应急决策差异研究

为研究特大地震初期的高层决策行为，通过演练模拟决策者在可得灾情信息下进行决策部署的情形，采集参演决策者独立确认的最终决策文本为样本，对比分析样本对草案修改的方式和程度，将决策者分为独立型、合作型和依赖型。结构化处理提取样本的决策任务，分析与灾情信息及决策建议的相关性。结果表明:在高层决策者中合作型人数比例最高，群组内决策差异较小，质量相对稳定；独立型决策者偏好主观判断，对灾情的关注以及草案漏洞的审查等指标明显低于其他类型；依赖型决策者在使用合理化建议的前提下易做出高质量决策，但在决策支持失误而非漏洞的条件下，能否保证决策质量有待进一步验证。     

Not all is fair in love and work: coworkers' preferences for and responses to managerial interventions regarding workplace romances

This article proposes a model of coworkers' preferences for and responses to managerial interventions regarding workplace romances (WRs). Specifically, the model examines the antecedents of coworkers' preferences for managerial intervention in WRs and the consequences of whether their preferred intervention is congruent with the actual managerial intervention. According to the model, coworkers' preferences for managerial intervention are influenced by their perceptions of the impact of the WR on the work environment, including perceptions of whether it represents a conflict of interest for the two participants and whether it disrupts the functioning of the work group. These perceptions are affected by factors pertaining to the romance itself, the coworkers themselves, and the organizational context in which the romance occurs. Next, consistent with the organizational justice literature, we propose that coworkers will evaluate the distributive and procedural justice of the managerial intervention according to (a) the congruence between the severity of their preferred managerial action and the severity of the actual managerial action and (b) the congruence between their beliefs about a just process for managerial decision making about WRs and the actual process. Finally, we propose that coworkers who perceive the managerial intervention process and outcomes as unjust will exhibit negative work‐related attitudes (e.g., decreased job satisfaction and organizational commitment) and behavior (e.g., decreased productivity and organizational citizenship behaviors). Implications of the model for future research and organizational practice are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thinking,feeling and deciding: The influence of emotions on the decision making and performance of traders

We report on a qualitative investigation of the influence of emotions on the decision making of traders in four City of London investment banks, a setting where work has been predominantly theorized as dominated by rational analysis. We conclude that emotions and their regulation play a central role in traders' decision making. We find differences between high and low performing traders in how they engage with their intuitions, and that different strategies for emotion regulation have material consequences for trader behavior and performance. Traders deploying antecedent‐focused emotional regulation strategies achieve a performance advantage over those employing primarily response‐focused strategies. We argue that, in particular, response‐focused approaches incur a performance penalty, in part because of the reduced opportunity to combine analysis with the use of affective cues in making intuitive judgments. We discuss the implications for our understanding of emotion and decision making, and for traders' practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐acquisition integration processes in publicly owned professional service companies: Senior professional behaviour and company performance

The client relationships and tacit knowledge of professionals are professional service firms' (PSFs') major value creating resources producing challenges in generating post‐merger and acquisition value and risks of reducing the productivity or losing key professionals and their clients. The recent emergence of publicly owned PSFs and rapid growth through consolidating smaller privately owned firms potentially increases this risk by integrating small firms and their professionals into large public companies that may be governed very differently. This study explores post‐acquisition integration processes: professional behaviours and associated performance implications in two highly acquisitive publicly owned accounting companies. In one company, the integration process was rapid and heavily directed by senior management, while in the second company, integration was more gradual, initially undirected but then facilitated by senior management. The findings suggest that integration processes can impact the behaviour of professionals and acquiring firm performance. This research contributes to the understanding of post‐acquisition integration processes in PSFs and decision‐making and professional behaviour in recently emerged publicly owned PSFs. The study contributes to knowledge‐based theory by identifying factors that can affect the decision authority of executives and how organisational behaviour can constrain the implementation of executive integration decisions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于区间直觉模糊信息TODM法的水利工程应急决策研究

为更合理地进行应急方案比选,减少不确定因素和决策者偏好对决策结果的影响,构造了1种更加适应水利工程应急决策的模型。针对应急决策环境的模糊性和不确定性,引入区间直觉模糊集表达评价信息,采用区间直觉模糊熵计算各指标权重;通过构造备选方案两两比较矩阵,运用区间直觉模糊距离测度公式计算方案间的损益值;结合TODIM法计算各方案相对占优度并进行比较排序,确定最优方案。研究结果表明:在损失规避系数确定的前提下,选择任一区间直觉模糊距离公式都不影响方案的优劣排序,决策模型具有一定的可靠性和稳定性。     

Risk informed optimization of a hazardous material multi-periodic transportation model

This paper presents a systematic framework toward the development of a Transportation Model for Hazardous Materials (HazMat). In practice, the proposed modeling framework is realized through an appropriate generalization of the traditional transportation network problem in the presence of safety constraints that need to be satisfied. The objective is to minimize transportation cost while reducing risks at the desired levels.In particular, the present research study identifies and evaluates different risk factors that influence the HazMat transportation network. Next, the transportation model is depicted graphically using nodes and arcs and optimal conditions are identified by solving the associated minimum cost flow network problem. The results show safety levels that help making informed decisions on choosing the optimal transportation configuration for hazardous material shipments.Within the proposed methodological context, appropriately parameterized simulation studies elucidate the effects of occurrence probabilities of the different risk events on transportation cost. Furthermore, as the appropriate management decisions must consider the effect of actions in one time period on future periods, the proposed model is structured as a multi-periodic model.Finally, the proposed methodological approach is employed to demonstrate the utility of proper analytical tools in decision making and particularly in ensuring that scientifically informed safety procedures are in place while transporting goods that can be potentially proven dangerous to the public and the surroundings.     

Risk information in decision-making: definitions,requirements and various functions

Inappropriate decisions are often regarded as causes of major accidents in the process industries. To improve the quality of decisions, it is important to make the right information available at the right time. The objective of this work is to investigate what types of risk information is needed for risk-related decisions in various decision-making processes. A framework is proposed to facilitate future research for easing information deficiency. In this paper, risk information is examined through common decision-making processes, and is identified serving to 1) detect and characterize risk-related decision problems, 2) indicate the severity and urgency of decisions, 3) state requirements and constraints of workable solutions, 4) represent attributes for comparing and evaluating solutions, and 5) act as rules to maintain safety or control risk. These usages of risk information in different decision problems imply the large diversity in information needs for decision-making. An adaptive information support is thus suggested to provide targeted risk information to specific decision-makers for effective and efficient decision-making in accident prevention in the process industries.     

基于环境监测的矿井通风三维仿真辅助决策系统设计

为优化金属矿山矿井通风系统及辅助决策设计，弥补常用矿井通风仿真解算软件在环境监测、实时解算和辅助决策方面的不足，基于矿井通风理论、环境监测、计算机与通信技术开发矿井通风三维仿真辅助决策系统。提出通过利用实时监测到的井下通风环境参数（风量、风速等）和已存储在系统数据库里的巷道参数，实现对矿井通风网络实时解算，并将其应用到山金阿尔哈达矿井通风系统中。结果表明:矿井通风三维仿真辅助决策系统同步实现了山金阿尔哈达矿井通风系统的环境监测、风网实时解算和三维仿真模拟，提高了其矿井通风管理水平，为矿井通风系统改造优化设计和矿井向深部中段延伸时的通风系统设计提供辅助决策依据。     

有毒化学品泄漏事故应急防护行动决策探讨

当发生有毒化学品泄漏事故时,为保护公众和工人的安全和健康,需要快速地选择合适的应急防护行动.通常采用的应急防护行动有疏散、隐蔽、使用个人防护装备和服用解毒剂等.决策者必须权衡大量影响因素间的相互作用,如化学品的释放特征、事故现场的气象条件及影响范围内的人群分布等来进行应急防护行动决策.本文在分析应急防护行动决策过程关键要素的基础上,详细总结了影响应急防护行动决策的因素,介绍了应急决策常用的方法,以便在有毒化学品泄漏事故的应急过程中有效决策,最大限度地减少人员伤亡.     

地铁工程建设中安全气候测度工具研究

对现有安全维度研究进行总结,结合中国项目安全管理特征以及地铁工程特征,在专家调查及一轮补充调查的基础上,通过决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)对地铁工程建设安全气候的维度进行筛选,获得可以对安全效果进行预测的安全气候的维度。结合各个维度在安全气候问卷调查中的调研要素,概括中国地铁工程建设安全气候主要调查指标。研究确定的安全气候主要因子可以为地铁工程建设中安全气候问卷调查提供基础,并通过对安全效果的有效预测指导安全管理决策。