Running to stand still: temperature effects on species richness, species turnover, and functional community dynamics

The information on temperature-mediated changes in biodiversity in local assemblages is scarce and mainly addresses the change in species richness. However, warming may have more consistent effects on species turnover than on the number of species. Moreover, very few studies extended the analysis of changes in biodiversity and species composition to questions of associated ecosystem functions such as primary production. Here, we synthesize 4 case studies employing microalgal microcosms within the Aquashift priority program to ask (1) do warming-related shifts in species richness correspond to changes in the rate of biomass production, (2) do similar relationships prevail for evenness, and (3) do warming-related shifts in species turnover stabilize or destabilize biomass production? Two of the four cases are previously unpublished, and for a third case, the link between diversity and functional consequences of temperature was not analyzed before. We found accelerated loss of species with warming in all cases. Biomass production was lower with lower species richness in most cases but increased with lower evenness. Most importantly, the relation between functional and compositional stability was different between cases: More rapid extinction resulted in more variable biomass in 2 cases conducted with a limited species pool, indicating that compositional destabilization relates to functional variability. By contrast, the only experiment with a large species pool (30 species) allowed previously rare species to become dominant in the community and showed more stable biomass at high turnover, indicating that compensatory dynamics (turnover) can promote functional stability. These 4 independent experiments highlight the need to consider both compositional and functional consequences of altered temperature regimes.     

Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.     

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?: Detecting elevational shifts using response curve shapes

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either “move, adapt or die”. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.     

气候变暖背景下森林土壤碳循环研究进展

由人类活动引起的温室效应以及由此造成的气候变暖对森林牛态系统的影响已引起人们的普遍关注.森林土壤碳循环作为全球碳循环的重要组成部分,是决定未来陆地牛物嘲表现为碳源/碳汇的关键环节,揭示这一作用对于准确理解全球变化背景下陆地生态系统碳循环过程具有重要的指导意义.本文主要通过论述影响土壤碳循环过程的5个方面(土壤呼吸、土壤微生物、土壤酶活性、凋落物输入与分解、土壤碳库),综述了近10 a来全球气候变暖对土壤碳循环过程的影响.近年来,尽管已开展了大量有关土壤碳循环对气候变暖的响应及反馈机制的研究,并取得了一定的成果,但研究结果仍然存在很大的不确定性.整合各种密切关联的全球变化现象,完善研究方法和实验手段,加强根际微生态系统碳循环过程与机理研究将是下一步研究的方向和重点.参70     

Area-specific temporal changes of species composition and species-specific range shifts in rocky-shore mollusks associated with warming Kuroshio Current

Increases of low-latitude species in various sea areas and poleward shifts of ranges of many species have been reported and linked to warming environments. To examine the generality of these trends for mollusks, we conducted 7 quadrat surveys during 1978–2006 on Pacific rocky shores in Japan (26.6–45.0°N). Results showed that the dominance of southern species increased on 11 of the 15 shores in a southern, warming sea area but on only 1 of the 6 shores in a northern area with no warming trend. The latitudes of species ranges increased on average but showed large interspecific variations which showed a weak, positive correlation with interspecific taxonomic distance. The differences of these results from the previously reported trends are discussed in relation to the unique current patterns in our study area and the phylogenetic constraints of species-specific responses to a warming environment.     

Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf.

Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 km northward since the early 1980s. Bottom trawl surveys of fish and invertebrates in the southeastern Bering Sea (1982-2006) show a coincident reorganization in community composition by latitude. Survey catches show community-wide northward distribution shifts, and the area formerly covered by the cold pool has seen increases in total biomass, species richness, and average trophic level as subarctic fauna have colonized newly favorable habitats. Warming climate has immediate management implications, as 57% of variability in commercial snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) catch is explained by winter sea ice extent. Several measures of community distribution and structure show linear relationships with bottom temperature, suggesting warming climate as the primary cause of changing biogeography. However, residual variability in distribution not explained by climate shows a strong temporal trend, suggesting that internal community dynamics also contribute to changing biogeography. Variability among taxa in their response to temperature was not explained by commercial status or life history traits, suggesting that species-specific responses to future warming will be difficult to predict.     

Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the Tibetan Plateau.

We investigated experimental warming and simulated grazing (clipping) effects on rangeland quality, as indicated by vegetation production and nutritive quality, in winter-grazed meadows and summer-grazed shrublands on the Tibetan Plateau, a rangeland system experiencing climatic and pastoral land use changes. Warming decreased total aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) by 40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at the meadow habitats and decreased palatable ANPP (total ANPP minus non-palatable forb ANPP) by 10 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at both habitats. The decreased production of the medicinal forb Gentiana straminea and the increased production of the non-palatable forb Stellera chamaejasme with warming also reduced rangeland quality. At the shrubland habitats, warming resulted in less digestible shrubs, whose foliage contains 25% digestible dry matter (DDM), replacing more digestible graminoids, whose foliage contains 60% DDM. This shift from graminoids to shrubs not only results in lower-quality forage, but could also have important consequences for future domestic herd composition. Although warming extended the growing season in non-clipped plots, the reduced rangeland quality due to decreased vegetative production and nutritive quality will likely overwhelm the improved rangeland quality associated with an extended growing season. Grazing maintained or improved rangeland quality by increasing total ANPP by 20-40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) with no effect on palatable ANPP. Grazing effects on forage nutritive quality, as measured by foliar nitrogen and carbon content and by shifts in plant group ANPP, resulted in improved forage quality. Grazing extended the growing season at both habitats, and it advanced the growing season at the meadows. Synergistic interactions between warming and grazing were present, such that grazing mediated the warming-induced declines in vegetation production and nutritive quality. Moreover, combined treatment effects were nonadditive, suggesting that we cannot predict the combined effect of global changes and human activities from single-factor studies. Our findings suggest that the rangelands on the Tibetan Plateau, and the pastoralists who depend on them, may be vulnerable to future climate changes. Grazing can mitigate the negative warming effects on rangeland quality. For example, grazing management may be an important tool to keep warming-induced shrub expansion in check. Moreover, flexible and opportunistic grazing management will be required in a warmer future.     

Floodplain Rehabilitation as a Hedge against Hydroclimatic Uncertainty in a Migration Corridor of Threatened Steelhead

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid‐latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain‐fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16–28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada     

Effects of rising temperature on pelagic biogeochemistry in mesocosm systems: a comparative analysis of the AQUASHIFT Kiel experiments

A comparative analysis of data, obtained during four indoor-mesocosm experiments with natural spring plankton communities from the Baltic Sea, was conducted to investigate whether biogeochemical cycling is affected by an increase in water temperature of up to 6?°C above present-day conditions. In all experiments, warming stimulated in particular heterotrophic bacterial processes and had an accelerating effect on the temporal development of phytoplankton blooms. This was also mirrored in the build-up and partitioning of organic matter between particulate and dissolved phases. Thus, warming increased both the magnitude and rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) build-up, whereas the accumulation of particulate organic carbon (POC) and phosphorus (POP) decreased with rising temperature. In concert, the observed temperature-mediated changes in biogeochemical components suggest strong shifts in the functioning of marine pelagic food webs and the ocean’s biological carbon pump, hence providing potential feedback mechanisms to Earth’s climate system.     

高山植物对全球气候变暖的响应研究进展

高山地区被认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,气候变暖导致高山生境内生物与非生物环境因子发生不同程度的改变,从而引起高山植物从不同层面作出不同的变化或响应.综述了高山及亚高山高海拔生境内,植物从宏观生态系统层面到微观个体生理层面对全球气候变化进行响应的研究进展.植物由个体自身的生理及形态上产生不同响应,逐步经过"瀑布式上升效应(Cascade effects)",最后引起整个高山生态系统的转变.受局地差异性及物种差异性影响,生物多样性在不同高山地区呈现出或是增加或是减少的趋势;林线及植被向高纬度、高海拔地区扩张;植物间相互关系由协作转向中性乃至竞争;植物物候、繁殖、生物量生产、光合作用、年轮生长、营养结构等方面均呈现出不同的响应模式.这些从微观到宏观的不同响应模式,最终将引起高山生态系统在结构、功能上的改变,进而在很大范围上威胁到高山植物的生存与发展.最后提出该领域未来的研究重点.参147     

Temperature and industrial output: Firm-level evidence from China

We pair a firm-level panel of annual industrial output with a fine-scale daily weather data set, to estimate the responses of industrial output to temperature changes in China. We have four primary findings. First, industrial output is nonlinear in temperature changes. With seasonal average temperatures as temperature variables, output responds positively to higher spring temperatures and negatively to elevated summer temperatures. With temperature bins as temperature variables, output increases linearly with temperature up to 21–24 °C, and then declines sharply at higher temperatures. Second, lagged temperature changes exert large and significant impacts on current year’s output. Third, higher summer temperatures have larger detrimental effects on output in low-temperature regions than in high-temperature regions, which suggests that adaptation to warming may have been actively undertaken in high-temperature regions in China. Lastly, industrial output in China is projected to decrease by 3–36% by 2080 under the slowest warming scenario (B1) and by 12–46% under the most rapid warming scenario (A2) under the global climate models UKMO-HadCM3 and PCM.     

Climate change and population genetic structure of marine species

Climate change influences populations by reducing or extirpating local populations, by disrupting patterns of migration and by shifting geographical distributions. These events can affect genetic population structure in several ways. Molecular markers have been used in numerous population genetic and phylogeographical studies of marine species and have detected population responses to climate change in the last few decades, such as range expansions, adaptative shifts and declines or increases in abundance. Little is known, however, about the molecular and physiological basis of adaptive responses to climate change in marine Mediterranean species. The Mediterranean Sea ecosystem is a ‘living laboratory’ with native species that are challenged by environmental change and by invasive species and a ‘gene-climate’ approach should be adopted as a way of focusing on the relationship between climate warming and genetic diversity.     

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Seasonal changes in habitat structure underpin shifts in macroalgae-associated tropical fish communities

Habitat shifts play an important role in structuring faunal assemblages; however, research has focused on the influence of random disturbance events and information on how regular seasonal changes to habitat affect marine fauna remains largely unexplored, especially in the tropics. We recorded seasonal changes in the structure of tropical macroalgae fields within the Ningaloo lagoon (Western Australia) and related this to the density, biomass and species richness of fishes that represent key processes: juveniles, predators of juveniles and herbivores. The extent and direction of seasonal changes in macroalgae were inconsistent among sites, creating a highly dynamic habitat matrix across time and space. Species richness and density of fishes were largely maintained where density of holdfasts from canopy-forming macroalgae and/or cover was high across seasons, but shifted markedly in areas of macroalgae habitat loss: suggesting stable habitat structure is critical for the persistence of macroalgae-associated fishes. Our results demonstrate that macroalgae fields that maintain high structural complexity across different seasons are more likely to preserve key ecological processes and therefore warrant greater conservation attention within a spatial management framework.     

Effects of water temperature and mixed layer depth on zooplankton body size

Ecological consequences of global warming include shifts of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes as well as temporal shifts in phenology and life-cycle events. Evidence is accumulating that increasing temperature is also linked to reduced body size of ectotherms. While temperature can act directly on body size, it may also act indirectly by affecting the timing of life-cycle events and the resulting population age and size structure, especially in seasonal environments. Population structure may, in turn, be influenced by temperature-driven changes in resource availability. In a field mesocosm experiment, we investigated how water temperature and mixed surface layer depth (a temperature-dependent determinant of light availability to phytoplankton) affected population dynamics, population age and size structure, and individual size at stage (size at first reproduction) of Daphnia hyalina during and after a phytoplankton spring bloom. Mixed layer depth was inversely related to the magnitudes of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the subsequent Daphnia peak, but had no effect on the body size of Daphnia. Conversely, temperature had no effects on abundance peaks but strongly affected the timing of these events. This resulted in at times positive, at other times negative, transient effects of temperature on mean body size, caused by asynchronous changes in population size structure in cold versus warm treatments. In contrast to mean body size, individual size at stage consistently decreased with increasing temperature. We suggest that size at stage could be used as an unbiased response parameter to temperature that is unaffected by transient, demographically driven changes in population size structure.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

对氨基偶氮苯盐酸盐溶液色度与吸收光谱的关系

本文研究了对氨基偶氮苯盐酸盐水溶认的色度与吸收光度谱的关系。着重探讨了利用吸鹛光谱确定的溶液的色度。     

Experimental tree removal in tallgrass prairie: variable responses of flora and fauna along a woody cover gradient

Woody plant encroachment is a worldwide phenomenon in grassland and savanna systems whose consequence is often the development of an alternate woodland state. Theoretically, an alternate state may be associated with changes in system state variables (e.g., species composition) or abiotic parameter shifts (e.g., nutrient availability). When state-variable changes are cumulative, such as in woody plant encroachment, the probability of parameter shifts increases as system feedbacks intensify over time. Using a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) design, we studied eight pairs of grassland sites undergoing various levels of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) encroachment to determine whether responses of flora and fauna to experimental redcedar removal differed according to the level of pretreatment redcedar cover. In the first year after removal, herbaceous plant species diversity and evenness, woody plant evenness, and invertebrate family richness increased linearly with pretreatment redcedar cover, whereas increases in small-mammal diversity and evenness were described by logarithmic trends. In contrast, increases in woody plant diversity and total biomass of terrestrial invertebrates were accentuated at levels of higher pretreatment cover. Tree removal also shifted small-mammal species composition toward a more grassland-associated assemblage. During the second year postremoval, increases in herbaceous plant diversity followed a polynomial trend, but increases in most other metrics did not vary along the pretreatment cover gradient. These changes were accompanied by extremely high growing-season precipitation, which may have homogenized floral and faunal responses to removal. Our results demonstrate that tree removal increases important community metrics among grassland flora and fauna within two years, with some responses to removal being strongly influenced by the stage of initial encroachment and modulated by climatic variability. Our results underscore the importance of decisive management for reversing the effects of woody plant encroachment in imperiled grassland ecosystems.     

Emergence cues of a mayfly in a high-altitude stream ecosystem: potential response to climate change.

To understand the consequences of human accelerated environmental change, it is important to document the effects on natural populations of an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events. In stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes. From 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western United States corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the high-altitude stream mayfly, Baetis bicaudatus. Using a long-term database from a western Colorado stream, the peak emergence date of this mayfly population was predicted by both the magnitude and date of peak stream flow, and by the mean daily water temperature, suggesting that Baetis may respond to declining stream flow or increasing water temperature as proximate cues for early metamorphosis. However, in a one-year survey of multiple streams from the same drainage basin, only water temperature predicted spatial variation in the onset of emergence of this mayfly. To decouple the effects of temperature and flow, we separately manipulated these factors in flow-through microcosms and measured the timing of B. bicaudatus metamorphosis to the adult stage. Mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. Nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. We speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.     

Changes in the spatial distribution of spawning activity by north-east Atlantic mackerel in warming seas: 1977–2010

Migratory species with a broad geographic range, such as north-east Atlantic mackerel, may be amongst the fauna most able to respond to warming seas, typically with a poleward shift in range. Habitat heterogeneity could, however, produce more complex patterns than a simple polewards translation in distribution. We tested for changes in the central location and spatial spread of mackerel spawning over a 33-year period. Spatial statistics [centre of gravity (CoG) of egg production, spatial variance, and degree of anisotropy] were used to summarise interannual changes in the spawning locations of the western spawning stock of north-east Atlantic mackerel (NEA-WSC) using data from the ICES triennial egg survey. A northwards shift in CoG of egg production estimates was observed, related to both an expansion in the distribution in survey effort and warming waters of the north-east Atlantic. Sea surface temperature (SST) had a significant positive association with the observed northward movement of NEA-WSC mackerel, equivalent to a displacement of 37.7 km °C^?1 (based on spring mean SST for the region). The spatial distribution of spawning around the CoG also changed significantly with SST, with a less elongated spatial spread in warm years. An increase in the proportion of spawning over the Porcupine Bank demonstrated how habitat interacts with positional shifts to affect how north-east Atlantic mackerel are distributed around the centre of their spawning range.