近10年安徽省的各类灾害及发展趋势

安徽是各种灾害频发的省份之一。由于所处的特殊地理位置，旱、涝等气象灾害严重；生物、地质、环境和人为事故灾害等也经常发生并有加重趋势。本文回顾了20世纪90年代安徽上述五类灾害发生的情况，分析了这些灾害的相互关系，并对安徽未来l0年灾害发展趋势作出了宏观预测。     

明代关中渭河流域水涝灾害研究

通过对历史资料的搜集、整理和分析,对明代(1368～1644年)关中渭河流域水涝灾害的时空特征、等级序列及产生原因进行了分析研究.结果表明,该地区水涝灾害多发于夏秋季节,发生频率从早期到晚期呈明显增加趋势,且存在相对高发期;水涝灾害主要发生在关中渭河流域的中下游地区,且主要分布在渭河的干流或支流沿岸;该地区水涝灾害以中度水灾居多,约占56.14%,重度和轻度水灾次之,特大灾很少发生.较集中的大雨和暴雨是明代关中渭河流域水涝灾害发生的的主要因素,森林植被的破坏和河渠的淤浅使该地区水量承载能力减小,增大了成灾的可能性.     

芜湖夏季6—8月降水10年定常周期及其预报应用

本文通过插补订正延长的芜湖１２０年降水资料序列，研究了皖江中下游降水的总趋势，找出其时间尺度为３８～４０年准周期，并通过小波分析，论证共１０年，２年定常周期振范现象，成功地预测了１９９８年和１９９９年夏季早涝总趋势。     

广西旱涝特征及减灾对策

本文通过对广西30年来旱涝发生规律的分析,指出广西旱涝灾害是严重的,具有明显的灾害特征,并根据广西旱涝灾害特征及具体情况,提出了减灾对策,对治旱和治涝分别提出了具体措施。     

河南旱涝灾害的演变特征分析

本文利用河南1949～2003年的逐年旱涝灾害成灾面积的统计数据，采用年旱涝成灾面积的相对大小进行了旱涝年型等级划分，分析了旱涝灾害演变的基本特征；同时运用小波分析的方法探讨了旱涝灾害的转折突变特征，结果表明：河南干旱灾害发生的频率与影响高于雨涝灾害，并具有日益严重的趋势；旱、涝阶段的转折突变具有12年左右的周期，下一个旱、涝转折突变点可能出现在2015年左右。     

超新星和中国旱涝灾害

本文提出了超新星是中国近500年里最严重旱涝灾害根源的观点。探讨了超新星引起的主要旱涝灾害应该比超新星的爆发时间晚上几十年才出现的机制;揭示了近五百年里银河系的三颗超新星(1572年超新星、1904年超新星、仙后座A超新星)出现后在中国都发生了很严重的先旱后涝灾害。根据超新星出现后中国旱涝灾害的特点,文章提出,中国近五百年里的7个最旱年和7个最涝年可能都是由超新星引起的。     

“全国灾害分析、预测方法总结交流会”在古城西安召开

由中国灾害防御协会、陕西省减灾协会、中国地球物理学会共同发 起，陕西省减灾协会承办的“全国灾害分析、预测方法总结交流会” 于 ２００１年１０月２２—２３日在西安召开。开幕式上，陕西省政协常委、政 府副秘书长黄广文，中国地震局副局长、中国灾害防御协会常务副会长 汤泉先后作了重要讲话。三位特邀专家首先进行了精彩的学术报告，之 后，十八位专家进行了报告交流。内容涉及国内外灾害预测、预警领域 最新动态、灾害趋势综合分析、预测实践中的经验教训，研讨灾害综合 预测的理论和方法及提高预测水平的途径。“全国灾害分析、预…     

《陕西省重大自然灾害综合研究与防御对策》一书出版发行

《陕西省重大自然灾害综合研究与防御对策》一书以发生频率较高、损失巨大,严重影响陕西国民经济发展的灾种为研究对象,着重对早涝、洪水、地震、滑坡、关中地区城市环境灾害、农林生物灾害及水土流失等8种灾害进行了研究。对于每种灾害都在分析长系列资     

四川泥石流灾害与降雨关系的初步探讨

2003年，四川共发生了8次泥石流灾害，造成了1130余人死亡和失踪，给地方经济带来了巨大的损失，是近年来灾害最为严重的一年。结合天气形势分析结果和收集的降水资料对8次泥石流灾害进行了分析，得出了泥石流灾害的发生大都伴有暴雨天气过程；暴发泥石流地区历年的降雨资料，说明这些区域在泥石流发生的当月，降雨量比历年普遍偏多。针对降雨对泥石流的激发作用和临界雨量问题，探索了四川泥石流灾害的发生规律，及相应预测预报和防灾决策。     

黑龙江省主要灾害成因及规律的探讨

对黑龙江省主要灾害－气象灾害、地震灾害、生态环境恶化致灾的成因进行了探讨，初步总结了灾害的发生及发生规律，提出了未来灾害趋势预测，以便人们实施有效的防灾减灾对策。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

The ethical contours of research in crisis settings: five practical considerations for academic institutional review boards and researchers

The number of research studies in the humanitarian field is rising. It is imperative, therefore, that institutional review boards (IRBs) consider carefully the additional risks present in crisis contexts to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld. Ethical guidelines should represent better the specific issues inherent to research among populations grappling with armed conflict, disasters triggered by natural hazards, or health‐related emergencies. This paper seeks to describe five issues particular to humanitarian settings that IRBs should deliberate and on which they should provide recommendations to overcome associated challenges: staged reviews of protocols in acute emergencies; flexible reviews of modification requests; addressing violence and the traumatic experiences of participants; difficulties in attaining meaningful informed consent among populations dependent on aid; and ensuring reviews are knowledgeable of populations' needs. Considering these matters when reviewing protocols will yield more ethically sound research in humanitarian settings and hold researchers accountable to appropriate ethical standards.