Flood hazards vulnerability and risk of food security in Bait community flood-prone areas of Punjab Pakistan: In SDGs achievement threat

Climate change in the global perspective has increased the occurrence of natural disasters, which subsequently decreased agricultural production and intensified the issue of food security. Developing countries, such as Pakistan, are facing severe food security issues, where most of the population still experiences poverty and hunger in their daily lives. Flood disasters ruin valuable land, cause agricultural production losses, and interrupt livelihood routines as expected household livelihood becomes more vulnerable. This research work focused on investigating the flood hazards vulnerability and risk of food security in the Bait community flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan, with a broader aspect in contrast to previous research work. A constructed food security index composed of several IPCC and FAO factors with correlated dimensions of food security was used for the empirical estimation in this study. A composite food security index was developed through polychoric principal component analysis. To estimate the influence on the overall food security condition in the study area, a food security index was regressed on various independent variables. Estimates of the study indicated that three-fourths of household respondents in the study area are confronted with the issue of food security with changeable scale. Financing schemes, physical assets, and family type illustrated the positive influence on respondents’ food security level, whereas respondents suffering property losses owing to floods had a negative influence. The study findings suggested integrated strategies must be adopted to effectively deal with issues of food security in the scenario of increasing severity of flood disasters. Policymakers and disaster-concerned institutions need to develop disaster risk mitigation strategies by constructing new water reserves and clearing river encroachments to deal with flood disasters. Agricultural research and development authorities need to provide climate friendly seed varieties and promote particular food crops for flood prone areas to ensure food security and reduce livelihood vulnerability, specifically for the flood-prone communities.

     

Migration,remittances, livelihood trajectories,and social resilience

We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience.     

Livelihood Security, Vulnerability and Resilience: A Historical Analysis of Chibuene, Southern Mozambique

A sustainable livelihood framework is used to analyse livelihood security, vulnerability and resilience in the village of Chibuene, Vilanculos, southern Mozambique from a historical and contemporary perspective. Interviews, assessments, archaeology, palaeoecology and written sources are used to address tangible and intangible aspects of livelihood security. The analysis shows that livelihood strategies for building resilience, diversification of resource use, social networks and trade, have long historical continuities. Vulnerability is contingent on historical processes as long-term socio-environmental insecurity and resultant biodiversity loss. These contingencies affect the social capacity to cope with vulnerability in the present. The study concludes that contingency and the extent and strength of social networks should be added as a factor in livelihood assessments. Furthermore, policies for mitigating vulnerability must build on the reality of environmental insecurity, and strengthen local structures that diversify and spread risk.     

Vulnerability of coastal livelihoods to shrimp farming: Insights from Mozambique

Millions of people around the world depend on shrimp aquaculture for their livelihoods. Yet, the phenomenal growth of shrimp farming has often given rise to considerable environmental and social damage. This article examines the impacts of commercial, export-oriented shrimp aquaculture on local livelihood vulnerability by comparing the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of shrimp farm employees with non-farm employees in rural Mozambique. Exposure to stressors was similar between the two groups. Shrimp farm employees had higher assets and higher adaptive capacity than non-farm employees. However, because their income is heavily dependent on a single commodity, shrimp farm employees were highly susceptible to the boom crop nature of intensive shrimp farming. The implications for aquaculture policy and vulnerability research are discussed. The article argues that coastal vulnerability is dynamic, variable, and influenced by multiple processes operating at multiple scales.     

The Expansion of Farm-Based Plantation Forestry in Vietnam

This study targets plantation forestry by farm households (small holders), which is increasing globally and most rapidly in China and Vietnam. By use of an interdisciplinary approach on three study sites in Vietnam, we examined the trends in farmers’ tree planting over time, the various pre-requisites for farm-based plantation forestry and its impact on rural people’s livelihood strategies, socio-economic status, income and security. The findings indicated a change from subsistence to cash-based household economy, diversification of farmers’ incomes and a transformation of the landscape from mainly natural forests, via deforestation and shifting cultivation, to a landscape dominated by farm-based plantations. The trend of transformation, over a period of some 30 years, towards cash crops and forestry was induced by a combination of policy, market, institutional, infrastructural and other conditions and the existence of professional farming communities, and was most rapid close to the industrial market.     

Assessing the effects of changing demographic and consumption patterns on sea tenure regimes in the Roviana Lagoon,Solomon Islands

This paper investigates how sea tenure institutions in the Roviana Lagoon, Solomon Islands, mediate among population, consumption, and the environment. The focus is on explaining how growth in population and consumption alter sea tenure regimes, and the factors that shape either their institutional robustness or vulnerability. The paper also addresses the regional differences among sea tenure institutional arrangements, the processes that are producing them, and the social and environmental outcomes of these institutions as they engage external forces and internal changes. A major question is how existing forms of sea tenure respond comparatively when faced with parallel demographic and economic transformations? Two villages representing different sea tenure arrangements within the Roviana Lagoon are compared. Results show that inhabitants in these villages perceive their systems of sea tenure governance similarly; yet their managerial responses to changes brought about by growth in population and consumption differ, and the responses produce contrasting environmental effects.     

What’s counted as a reindeer herder? Gender and the adaptive capacity of Sami reindeer herding communities in Sweden

Researchers of adaptive capacity and sustainable livelihoods have frequently used social, cultural, human, economic and institutional capitals to better understand how rural and resource-dependent communities address environmental, social and economic stresses. Yet few studies have considered how men and women contribute differently to these capitals to support community resilience overall. Our research sought to understand the differential contributions of Sami men and women to the adaptive capacity of reindeer husbandry and reindeer herding communities in northern Sweden. Our focus revealed a gendered division of labour in reindeer herding as an economic enterprise as well as gendered contributions to a broader conceptualization of reindeer husbandry as a family and community-based practice, and as a livelihood and cultural tradition. Based on our results, we recommend that community resilience be enhanced by generating more opportunities for men to achieve higher levels of human and economic capital (particularly outside of herding activities) and encouraging women to contribute more directly to institutional capital by participating in the formation and implementation of legislation, policies and plans.     

Markets,population dynamics,and coastal ecosystems

Our synthesis focuses on how markets influence the population and environment relationship within coastal ecosystems by considering the differential valuing of environmental resources and ecosystem services through 3 perspectives: livelihood, globalization, and public goods and externalities. These are not new perspectives when considering how markets shape demographic and environmental outcomes. However, we suggest that the insight offered by viewing coastal and marine health through these combined lenses brings into focus with renewed urgency the perils facing these vital ecosystems.     

Lessons from farmers’ adaptive practices to climate change in China: a systematic literature review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Due to the vulnerability and exposure of agriculture, farmers’ adaptive strategies to climate change are important to food security and...     

Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka’s dry zone

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers’ use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers’ rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.     

In harm’s way: Non-migration decisions of people at risk of slow-onset coastal hazards in Bangladesh

Non-migration is an adaptive strategy that has received little attention in environmental migration studies. We explore the leveraging factors of non-migration decisions of communities at risk in coastal Bangladesh, where exposure to both rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters is high. We apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to empirical data and assess how threat perception and coping appraisal influences migration decisions in farming communities suffering from salinization of cropland. This study consists of data collected through quantitative household surveys (n = 200) and semi-structured interviews from four villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Results indicate that most respondents are unwilling to migrate, despite better economic conditions and reduced environmental risk in other locations. Land ownership, social connectedness, and household economic strength are the strongest predictors of non-migration decisions. This study is the first to use the PMT to understand migration-related behaviour and the findings are relevant for policy planning in vulnerable regions where exposure to climate-related risks is high but populations are choosing to remain in place.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01552-8.     

The impact of swidden decline on livelihoods and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia: A review of the evidence from 1990 to 2015

Global economic change and policy interventions are driving transitions from long-fallow swidden (LFS) systems to alternative land uses in Southeast Asia’s uplands. This study presents a systematic review of how these transitions impact upon livelihoods and ecosystem services in the region. Over 17 000 studies published between 1950 and 2015 were narrowed, based on relevance and quality, to 93 studies for further analysis. Our analysis of land-use transitions from swidden to intensified cropping systems showed several outcomes: more households had increased overall income, but these benefits came at significant cost such as reductions of customary practice, socio-economic wellbeing, livelihood options, and staple yields. Examining the effects of transitions on soil properties revealed negative impacts on soil organic carbon, cation-exchange capacity, and aboveground carbon. Taken together, the proximate and underlying drivers of the transitions from LFS to alternative land uses, especially intensified perennial and annual cash cropping, led to significant declines in pre-existing livelihood security and the ecosystem services supporting this security. Our results suggest that policies imposing land-use transitions on upland farmers so as to improve livelihoods and environments have been misguided; in the context of varied land uses, swidden agriculture can support livelihoods and ecosystem services that will help buffer the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia.     

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.     

Seawater intrusion vulnerability in the coastal aquifers of southern India—an appraisal of the GALDIT model,parameters’ sensitivity,and hydrochemical indicators

An appraisal of seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifers is one of the major issues for groundwater resource management. The GALDIT model applies to the analysis of multiple parameters using systematic GIS techniques for mapping and assessment of seawater intrusion vulnerability. It demarcates the mapping of potential vulnerability that shows a higher vulnerability to seawater intrusion in various parts of the coast and the estimated vulnerability index value of 7.50 and 9.64. An area of 33.0 km² spread in the low-lying coastal area comprising estuaries, salt marshes, and saltpans shows the high vulnerability condition with an estimated vulnerability value of 6.42–7.50. An area of 73.20 km² spread over coastal and alluvial plains experiences moderate vulnerability (temporal salinity in the groundwater sources) with an estimated vulnerability index value of 5.46–6.42. Aquifers underlying coastal uplands (hard rock formations) and some parts of accretionary beaches (2.05 km²) are relatively protected fresh groundwater sources, wherein the estimated vulnerability index is 4.55–5.46. The vulnerability mapping of the GALDIT model using hydrochemical analysis of primary groundwater parameters such as TDS, Cl^?, HCO₃, and Cl^?/HCO₃ ratio is validated. Higher concentration of TDS (2637–4162 mg/l) and Cl^? (1268–2347 mg/l) is taken for the areas falling under higher vulnerability to seawater intrusion, especially in the placer mining sites and coastal areas facing erosion. Similarly, the groundwater sources of the low-lying areas including estuaries, salt marshes, saltpans, and backwater were noted to have higher values of Cl^?/HCO₃ with a rationality of 9.87–12.18. Hydrological facies shows the highest concentration of NaCl in the groundwater sources within the proximity of eroded beaches, saltwater bodies, and sand mining areas. A hydrochemical facies evolution (HFE) diagram represents the hydrochemical facies of groundwater elements that shows an intrusion of seawater into the coastal aquifers underlying the very high vulnerable zones. Higher bicarbonate concentration (233–318 mg/l) is noticed in the upland areas and some parts of dunes and accreted beaches, sandy coasts, and uplands. Vulnerability analysis reveals that those areas near saltwater bodies and eroding coasts are prone to lateral and vertical diffusion of saltwater. The geodatabase developed through such modeling studies can help in planning and developing activities for sustainable groundwater resource management in coastal areas.

     

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.     

Studying common-pool resources over time: A longitudinal case study of the Buen Hombre fishery in the Dominican Republic

Like many small-scale fishing communities around the world, the community of Buen Hombre in the Dominican Republic is dealing with a set of challenges to reconcile its fishing activities with the ecology on which it depends. Also like many such communities, this case has been examined at a particular period in time by a group of social scientists, but not over substantial lengths of time in order to examine the longitudinal validity of the conclusions made during this period. In this paper we combine data from previous anthropological work with our own primary social and ecological data to conduct a longitudinal case study of the Buen Hombre fishery. Our over-time comparison focuses on a suite of mostly social and institutional variables to explain what we find to be a continued degradation of the fishery, and we conclude the analysis by presenting a causal-loop diagram, summarizing our inferences regarding the complex interactions among these variables. We find that a mix of factors, notably changes in gear and fishing sites used, the number of fishermen and their livelihood diversity, as well as an increased connectivity between Buen Hombre and its external environment, have contributed to the decline of the condition of Buen Hombre coral reef fishery. We conclude with a discussion of what may lie ahead for this particular case and others like it.     

The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore

Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.     

Links between food trade,climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden’s food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden’s grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the ‘Gravity’ model, to improve prediction of trade flows.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w.     

Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure,sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Contribution of women’s fisheries substantial,but overlooked,in Timor-Leste

A greater understanding of gendered roles in fisheries is necessary to value the often-hidden roles that women play in fisheries and households. We examine women’s contributions to household food and income using focus group discussions, market surveys, and landings data in six communities in Timor-Leste. Women were actively fishing more days per month than men. Gleaning was the most frequent activity and 100% of trips returned with catch for food and/or income. Mollusc and crab catches were common and exploitation appeared targeted on a dynamic reappraisal of changing food values and changing estimates of group needs. With as many as 80% of households in coastal areas involved in fishing, and at least 50% of women fishing, this highlights the current lack of women’s engagement as a critical gap in fisheries management approaches. The current androcentric dialogue limits social-ecological understanding of these systems and the potential for their effective stewardship.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01335-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.