Summertime photochemical ozone formation in Santiago,Chile

The city of Santiago, Chile experiences frequent high pollution episodes and as a consequence very high ozone concentrations, which are associated with health problems including increasing daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. The development of ozone abatement strategies requires the determination of the potential of each pollutant to produce ozone, taking into account known mechanisms and chemical kinetics in addition to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, the photochemical formation of ozone during a summer campaign carried out from March 8–20, 2005 has been investigated using an urban photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). The MCM box model has been constrained with 10 min averages of simultaneous measurements of HONO, HCHO, CO, NO, j(O¹D), j(NO₂), 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and meteorological parameters. The O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivities have been determined by simulating ozone formation at different VOC and NO_x concentrations. Ozone sensitivity analyses showed that photochemical ozone formation is VOC-limited under average summertime conditions in Santiago. The results of the model simulations have been compared with a set of potential empirical indicator relationships including H₂O₂/HNO₃, HCHO/NO_y and O₃/NO_z. The ozone forming potential of each measured VOC has been determined using the MCM box model. The impacts of the above study on possible summertime ozone control strategies in Santiago are discussed.     

Assessment of the Ozone-Nitrogen Oxide-Volatile Organic Compound Sensitivity of Mexico City through an Indicator-Based Approach: Measurements and Numerical Simulations Comparison

Abstract

The ozone (O₃) sensitivity to nitrogen oxides (NO_x, or nitric oxide [NO] + nitrogen dioxide [NO₂]) versus volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) is a current issue of scientific controversy. To shed light on this issue, we compared measurements of the indicator species O₃/NO_y (where NO_y represents the sum of NO + NO₂ + nitric acid [HNO₃] + peroxyacetyl nitrate [PAN] + others), NO_y, and the semiempirically derived O₃/NO_{z surrogate} (where NO_{z surrogate} is the derived surrogate NO_z, and NO_z represents NO_x reaction products, or NO_y – NO_x) with results of numerical predictions reproducing the transition regimes between NO_x and VOC sensitivities. Ambient air concentrations of O₃, NO_x, and NO_y were measured from April 14 to 25, 2004 in one downwind receptor site of photo-chemically aged air masses within Mexico City. MCMA-derived transition values for an episode day occurring during the same monitoring period were obtained through a series of photochemical simulations using the Multiscale Climate and Chemistry Model (MCCM). The comparison between the measured indicator species and the simulated spatial distribution of the indicators O₃/NO_y, O₃/NO_{z surrogate}, and NO_y in MCMA suggest that O₃ in this megacity is likely VOC-sensitive. This is in opposition to past studies that, on the basis of the observed morning VOC/NO_x ratios, have concluded that O₃ in Mexico City is NO_x-sensitive. Simulated MCMA-derived sensitive transition values for O₃/NO_y, hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂)/HNO₃, and NO_y were found to be in agreement with threshold criteria proposed for other regions in North America and Europe, although the transition crossover for O₃/NO_z and O₃/HNO₃ was not consistent with values reported elsewhere. An additional empirical evaluation of weekend/weekday differences in average maximum O₃ concentrations and 6:00- to 9:00-a.m. NO_x and NO levels registered at the same site in April 2004 indirectly confirmed the above results. A preliminary conclusion is that additional reductions in NO_x emissions in MCMA might cause an increase in presently high O₃ levels.     

In situ measurements of HNO3, NOy,NO, and O3 in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

In situ measurements of nitric acid (HNO₃), reactive nitrogen (NO_y), nitric oxide (NO), and ozone (O₃) made in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) between 29° and 33°N latitudes during September 1999 are used to examine NO_y partitioning and correlations between the measured species in these regions. The fast-response (1 s) HNO₃ measurements are acquired with a new autonomous CIMS instrument. In the LS, HNO₃ accounts for the majority of NO_y, and the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x accounts for approximately 90% of NO_y. In the UT, the sum of HNO₃ and NO_x varies between 40% and 100% of NO_y. Both HNO₃ and NO_y are strongly positively correlated with O₃, with larger correlation slopes in the UT than in the LS. In the UT at low values of the quantity (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃), it is uncorrelated with O₃, while at higher values, a positive correlation with O₃ is found. Of these two air mass types, those with higher (NO_y–NO_x–HNO₃) mixing ratios are likely associated with the presence of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) that is produced by NO_x-hydrocarbon chemistry.     

Ozone response to precursor controls: comparison of data analysis methods with the predictions of photochemical air quality simulation models

Comparisons were made between the predictions of six photochemical air quality simulation models (PAQSMs) and three indicators of ozone response to emission reductions: the ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y and the extent of reaction. The values of the two indicator ratios and the extent of reaction were computed from the model-predicted mixing ratios of ozone and oxidized nitrogen species and were compared to the changes in peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios predicted by the PAQSMs. The ozone changes were determined from the ozone levels predicted for base-case emission levels and for reduced emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). For all simulations, the model-predicted responses of peak 1 and 8 h ozone mixing ratios to VOC or NO_x emission reductions were correlated with the base-case extent of reaction and ratios of O₃/NO_z and O₃/NO_y. Peak ozone values increased following NO_x control in 95% (median over all simulations) of the high-ozone (>80 ppbv hourly mixing ratio in the base-case) grid cells having mean afternoon O₃/NO_z ratios less than 5 : 1, O₃/NO_y less than 4 : 1, or extent less than 0.6. Peak ozone levels decreased in response to NO_x reductions in 95% (median over all simulations) of the grid cells having peak hourly ozone mixing ratios greater than 80 ppbv and where mean afternoon O₃/NO_z exceeded 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was greater than 8 : 1, or extent exceeded 0.8. Ozone responses varied in grid cells where O₃/NO_z was between 5 : 1 and 10 : 1, O₃/NO_y was between 4 : 1 and 8 : 1, or extent was between 0.6 and 0.8. The responses in such grid cells were affected by ozone responses in upwind grid cells and by the changes in ozone levels along the upwind boundaries of the modeling domains.     

The relation between ozone,NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments

Research over the past ten years has created a more detailed and coherent view of the relation between O₃ and its major anthropogenic precursors, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). This article presents a review of insights derived from photochemical models and field measurements. The ozone–precursor relationship can be understood in terms of a fundamental split into a NO_x-senstive and VOC-sensitive (or NO_x-saturated) chemical regimes. These regimes are associated with the chemistry of odd hydrogen radicals and appear in different forms in studies of urbanized regions, power plant plumes and the remote troposphere. Factors that affect the split into NO_x-sensitive and VOC-sensitive chemistry include: VOC/NO_x ratios, VOC reactivity, biogenic hydrocarbons, photochemical aging, and rates of meteorological dispersion. Analyses of ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity from 3D photochemical models show a consistent pattern, but predictions for the impact of reduced NO_x and VOC in indivdual locations are often very uncertain. This uncertainty can be identified by comparing predictions from different model scenarios that reflect uncertainties in meteorology, anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Several observation-based approaches have been proposed that seek to evaluate ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity directly from ambient measurements (including ambient VOC, reactive nitrogen, and peroxides). Observation-based approaches have also been used to evaluate emission rates, ozone production efficiency, and removal rates of chemically active species. Use of these methods in combination with models can significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with model predictions.     

The use of experimental data and their uncertainty for assessing ozone photochemistry in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

Observation-based methods are useful tools to explore the sensitivity of ozone concentrations to precursor controls. With the aim of assessing the ozone precursor sensitivity in two locations: Paterna (suburban) and Villar del Arzobispo (rural) of the Turia river basin in the east of Spain, the photochemical indicator O₃/NO_y and the Extent-of-Reaction (EOR) parameter have been calculated from field measurements. In Paterna, the O₃/NO_y ratio varied from 0 to 13 with an average value of 5.1 (SD 3.2), whereas the averaged value for the EOR was 0.43 (SD 0.14). In Villar del Arzobispo, the O₃/NO_y ratio changed from 5 to 30 with a mean value of 13.6 (SD 4.7) and the EOR gave an averaged value of 0.72 (SD 0.11). The results show two different patterns of ozone production as a function of the location. The suburban area shows a VOC-sensitive regime whereas the rural one shows a transition regime close to NO_x-sensitive conditions. No seasonal differences in these regimes are observed along the monitoring campaigns. Finally, an analysis of the influence of the measurement quality of NO_y, NO_x and O₃ on the uncertainty of the O₃/NO_y ratio and the EOR was performed showing that the uncertainty of O₃/NO_y is not dependent on either its value or the individual values of O₃ and NO_y but just on the quality of O₃ and NO_y measurements. The maximum uncertainty is 26% as long as the combined uncertainties of O₃ and NO_y remain below the 7.5%. The case of the EOR is different and its uncertainty depends on both the value of the EOR parameter and the individual concentration values of NO_y and NO_x. The uncertainty of the EOR estimation can be very high (>200%) if the combined uncertainties of both NO_y and NO_x are high (>7.5%), or especially, if u(NO_y) and u(NO_x) differ considerably from each other (>3.5%).     

The use of ambient data to corroborate analyses of ozone control strategies

Data from environmental-chamber studies and photochemical box-model simulations were used to evaluate and revise a method for developing a qualitative understanding of the sensitivity of ozone formation at a particular time and place to changes in concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The revised method requires measurements of ozone, NO, and either NO_x or NO_y. The sensitivities of the method to biases in measurements were evaluated. The method potentially can be used for qualitative assessment of VOC versus NO_x limitation, comparison with the predictions of grid-based photochemical air-quality models, and evaluation of trends over time in the relative effectiveness of VOC versus NO_x controls.     

Long term changes in nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in Toronto and the challenges facing local ozone control

Ground level ozone represents a significant air quality concern in Toronto, Canada, where the national 65 ppb 8-h standard is repeatedly exceeded during the summer. Here we present an analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and volatile organic compound (VOC) data from federal and provincial governmental monitoring sites from 2000 to 2007. We show that summertime VOC reactivity and ambient concentrations of NO₂ have decreased over this period of time by up to 40% across Toronto and the surrounding region. This has not resulted in significant summertime ozone reductions, and in some urban areas, it appears to be increasing. We discuss the competing effects of decreased ozone titration leading to an increase in O₃, and decreased local ozone production, both caused by significant decreases in NO_x concentrations. In addition, by using local meteorological data, we show that annual variability in summer ozone correlates strongly with maximum daily temperatures, and we explore the effect of atmospheric transport from the southwest which has a significant influence on early morning levels before local production begins. A mathematical model of instantaneous ozone production is presented which suggests that, given the observed decreases in NO_x and VOC reactivity, we would not expect a significant change in local ozone production under photochemically relevant conditions. These results are discussed in the context of Toronto's recent commitment to cutting local smog-causing pollutants by 20% by 2012.     

Chemistry of HOx radicals in the upper troposphere

Aircraft observations from three recent missions (STRAT, SUCCESS, SONEX) are synthesized into a theoretical analysis of the factors controlling the concentrations of HO_x radicals (HO_x=OH+peroxy) and the larger reservoir family HO_y (HO_y=HO_x+2H₂O₂+2CH₃OOH+HNO₂+HNO₄) in the upper troposphere. Photochemical model calculations capture 66% of the variance of observed HO_x concentrations. Two master variables are found to determine the variance of the 24 h average HO_x concentrations: the primary HO_x production rate, P(HO_x), and the concentration of nitrogen oxide radicals (NO_x=NO+NO₂). We use these two variables as a coordinate system to diagnose the photochemistry of the upper troposphere and map the different chemical regimes. Primary HO_x production is dominated by the O(¹D)+H₂O reaction when [H₂O]>100 ppmv, and by photolysis of acetone (and possibly other convected HO_x precursors) under drier conditions. For the principally northern midlatitude conditions sampled by the aircraft missions, the HO_x yield from acetone photolysis ranges from 2 to 3. Methane oxidation amplifies the primary HO_x source by a factor of 1.1–1.9. Chemical cycling within the HO_x family has a chain length of 2.5–7, while cycling between the HO_x family and its HO_y reservoirs has a chain length of 1.6–2.2. The number of ozone molecules produced per HO_y molecule consumed ranges from 4 to 12, such that ozone production rates vary between 0.3 and 5 ppbv d⁻¹ in the upper troposphere. Three chemical regimes (NO_x-limited, transition, NO_x-saturated) are identified to describe the dependence of HO_x concentrations and ozone production rates on the two master variables P(HO_x) and [NO_x]. Simplified analytical expressions are derived to express these dependences as power laws for each regime. By applying an eigenlifetime analysis to the HO_x–NO_x–O₃ chemical system, we find that the decay of a perturbation to HO_y in the upper troposphere (as from deep convection) is represented by four dominant modes with the longest time scale being factors of 2–3 times longer than the steady-state lifetime of HO_y.     

Spatial mapping of VOC and NOx-limitation of ozone formation in central California

Ambient aerometric data were used to predict whether ozone formation at specific times and locations in central California was limited by the availability of volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The predictions were compared with differences between mean weekday and weekend peak ozone values. The comparison with weekend and weekday ozone levels provided a means for empirically investigating the effects of VOC and NO_x reductions on ozone formation, because the relative proportions and levels of ozone precursor species were significantly different on weekends than on weekdays. Weekend NO_x levels averaged 27 percent lower than weekday levels at the time of the peak ozone hour. Daytime weekend levels of VOC species were also consistently lower than weekday values throughout the region, though the differences between weekends and weekdays were not always statistically significant (p<0.05). Site-to-site differences between weekend and weekday mean peak hourly ozone were related to whether ozone formation was VOC- or NO_x-limited.     

Effects of uncertainty in the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide on model-simulated ozone control strategies

We evaluated the effect of a 20% reduction in the rate constant of the reaction of the hydroxyl radical with nitrogen dioxide to produce nitric acid (OH+NO₂→HNO₃) on model predictions of ozone mixing ratios ([O₃]) and the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) for reducing [O₃]. By comparing a model simulation with the new rate constant to a base case scenario, we found that the [O₃] increase was between 2 and 6% for typical rural conditions and between 6 and 16% for typical urban conditions. The increases in [O₃] were less than proportional to the reduction in the OH+NO₂ rate constant because of negative feedbacks in the photochemical mechanism. Next, we used two different approaches to evaluate how the new OH+NO₂ rate constant changed the effectiveness of reductions in emissions of VOC and NO_x: first, we evaluated the effect on [O₃] sensitivity to small changes in emissions of VOC (d[O₃]/dE_VOC) and NO_x (d[O₃]/dE_NOx); and secondly, we used the empirical kinetic modeling approach to evaluate the effect on the level of emissions reduction necessary to reduce [O₃] to a specified level. Both methods showed that reducing the OH+NO₂ rate constant caused control strategies for VOC to become less effective relative to NO_x control strategies. We found, however, that d[O₃]/dE_VOC and d[O₃]/dE_NOx did not quantitatively predict the magnitude of the change in the control strategy because the [O₃] response was nonlinear with respect to the size of the emissions reduction. We conclude that model sensitivity analyses calculated using small emissions changes do not accurately characterize the effect of uncertainty in model inputs (in this case, the OH+NO₂ rate constant) on O₃ attainment strategies. Instead, the effects of changes in model inputs should be studied using large changes in precursor emissions to approximate realistic attainment scenarios.     

A diagnostic comparison of measured and model-predicted speciated VOC concentrations

This study compares speciated model-predicted concentrations (i.e., mixing ratios) of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with measurements from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) network at sites within the northeastern US during June–August of 2006. Measurements of total non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), ozone (O₃), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and reactive nitrogen species (NO_y) are used for supporting analysis. The measured VOC species were grouped into the surrogate classes used by the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical mechanism. It was found that the model typically over-predicted all the CB4 VOC species, except isoprene, which might be linked to overestimated emissions. Even with over-predictions in the CB4 VOC species, model performance for daily maximum O₃ was typically within ±15%. Analysis at an urban site in NY, where both NMOC and NO_x data were available, suggested that the reasonable ozone performance may be possibly due to compensating overestimated NO_x concentrations, thus modulating the NMOC/NO_x ratio to be in similar ranges as that of observations.     

In situ measurements of NO,NO2, NOy,and O3 in Dinghushan (112°E, 23°N), China during autumn 2008

Measurements of O₃, NO, NO₂, and NO_y mixing ratios were carried out at a station-Dinghushan in Guangdong province of China from Oct. 18th, 2008 to Nov. 7th, 2008. This research shows that under conditions of a strong subtropical high (temperature high, relative humidity low), on Oct. 29th, 2008 the Dinghushan station observed severe photochemical pollution. The Maximum hour average concentration of O₃ reached 128 ppbv, and the serious photochemical pollution is caused by superposition of local photochemical reaction and regional transport. The observation that NO_x ozone production efficiency (OPE) values for high O₃ pollution on Oct. 29–30th, 2008 were 10.5 and 15, which were more than the values of the city source region and lower than that of the surrounding clean areas. It means the sensitivity of O₃ generated was transitioning from VOCs limited condition to NOx-limited regime. By applying a Smog Production Model, the results show that the extent of reaction values less than 0.6 were occurred on 17 days during campaign, and 13 days for the extents of reactions more than 0.6. However, there were no data with values over 0.8, which indicates that the observation station represent a VOCs sensitive system during campaign. Analysis of the extents of reactions and wind data show that the pollution is mostly subject to a southeasterly airflow influence.     

Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study

Sensitivity of ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Mexico City area to diurnal variations of surface air pollutant emissions is investigated using the WRF/Chem model. Our analysis shows that diurnal variations of nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions play an important role in controlling the O₃ concentrations in the Mexico City area. The contributions of NO_x and VOC emissions to daytime O₃ concentrations are very sensitive to the morning emissions of NO_x and VOCs. Increase in morning NO_x emissions leads to decrease in daytime O₃ concentrations as well as the afternoon O₃ maximum, while increase in morning VOC emissions tends to increase in O₃ concentrations in late morning and early afternoon, indicating that O₃ production in Mexico City is under VOC-limited regime. It is also found that the nighttime O₃ is independent of VOCs, but is sensitive to NO_x. The emissions of VOCs during other periods (early morning, evening, and night) have only small impacts on O₃ concentrations, while the emissions of NO_x have important impacts on O₃ concentrations in the evening and the early morning.This study suggests that shifting emission pattern, while keeping the total emissions unchanged, has important impacts on air quality. For example, delaying the morning emission peak from 8 am to 10 am significantly reduced the morning peaks of NO_x and VOCs, as well as the afternoon O₃ maxima. It suggests that without reduction of total emission, the daytime O₃ concentrations can be significantly reduced by changing the diurnal variations of the emissions of O₃ precursors.     

Influence of nocturnal vertical stability on daytime chemistry: A one-dimensional model study

Nocturnal chemistry can play an important role in determining the initial morning conditions for daytime chemistry in urban areas. However, the impact on daytime O₃ levels is difficult to assess as the suppression of vertical trace gas transport leads to highly altitude dependent nocturnal chemistry, in particular with respect to the removal and conversion of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). One-dimensional (1-D) chemical transport model calculations for different nighttime vertical stabilities and different ozone formation regimes (i.e. NO_x- vs. VOC-sensitive) were performed assuming a 1000 m high daytime boundary layer and a growing nocturnal boundary layer reaching 200 m height at the end of the night. Exclusion of NO₃ chemistry from the model leads to daytime O₃ concentration changes from ?4% to +16% for different O₃ sensitivities. In all cases strong nocturnal vertical concentration profiles of NO_x, O₃, NO₃ and N₂O₅ and a dependence of these profiles on vertical stability were found at night. The nocturnal NO_x loss averaged over the lowest 1000 m changes by 9–24% for different vertical stabilities and ozone sensitivities. The impact of nocturnal vertical stability leads to 7–12% difference in O₃ concentration in the morning and ～0–2.5% in the afternoon.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Factors influencing ozone chemistry in subsonic aircraft plumes

This study investigates several factors that could influence ozone chemistry occurring in subsonic aircraft plumes in the upper troposphere. The study focuses on uncertainties in gas-phase rate parameters, but also examines the influence of selected heterogeneous reactions, the rate of expansion of the plume, ambient and initial plume concentrations, and the time of emissions. Monte Carlo analysis with Latin hypercube sampling was applied to an expanding box model of an aircraft plume, in order to estimate the sensitivities of O₃ perturbations (ΔO₃) to uncertainties in rate constants in the RADM2 chemical mechanism. The resulting coefficient of variation in ΔO₃ at the end of a 36 h simulation was about 50%. Influential uncertainties in gas-phase rate parameters include those for photolysis of NO₂ and HCHO, O₃+NO, HO₂+NO, and formation of PAN and HNO₃. With high background concentrations of non-methane hydrocarbons, uncertainties in rate parameters of reactions involving peroxy radicals from ethene and propene oxidation were also influential. The coefficient of variation for ΔO₃ due to uncertainties in emission indices of NO_x, CO, and organic compounds was less than 15%. The effects of the heterogeneous reaction of N₂O₅ leading to HNO₃ formation, and hypothesized reactions of HNO₃ and NO₂ on soot, were also investigated. The results suggest that the latter two reactions could be influential for ΔO₃ if published estimates of reaction probabilities and high estimates of soot concentrations in plumes are realistic.     

Intercomparison of chemical mechanisms for air quality policy formulation and assessment under North American conditions

The intercomparison of seven chemical mechanisms for their suitability for air quality policy formulation and assessment is described. Box modeling techniques were employed using 44 sets of background environmental conditions covering North America to constrain the chemical development of the longer lived species. The selected mechanisms were modified to enable an unbiased assessment of the adequacy of the parameterizations of photochemical ozone production from volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation in the presence of NO_x. Photochemical ozone production rates responded differently to 30% NO_x and VOC reductions with the different mechanisms, despite the striking similarities between the base-case ozone production rates. The 30% reductions in NO_x and VOCs also produced changes in OH. The responses in OH to 30% reductions in NO_x and VOCs appeared to be more sensitive to mechanism choice, compared with the responses in the photochemical ozone production rates. Although 30% NO_x reductions generally led to decreases in OH, 30% reductions in VOCs led to increases in OH, irrespective of mechanism choice and background environmental conditions. The different mechanisms therefore gave different OH responses to NO_x and VOC reductions and so would give different responses in terms of changes in the fate and behavior of air toxics, acidification and eutrophication, and fine particle formation compared with others, in response to ozone control strategies. Policymakers need to understand that there are likely to be inherent differences in the responses to ozone control strategies between different mechanisms, depending on background environmental conditions and the extents of NO_x and VOC reductions under consideration.

Implications: The purpose of this paper is to compare predicted ozone responses to NO_x and VOC reductions with seven chemical mechanisms under North American conditions. The good agreement found between the tested mechanisms should provide some support for their application in the air quality models used for policymaking.