Effectiveness of Predator Removal for Enhancing Bird Populations

Abstract: Predation pressure on vulnerable bird species has made predator control an important issue for international nature conservation. Predator removal by culling or translocation is controversial, expensive, and time‐consuming, and results are often temporary. Thus, it is important to assess its effectiveness from all available evidence. We used explicit systematic review methodology to determine the impact of predator removal on four measurable responses in birds: breeding performance (hatching success and fledging success) and population size (breeding and postbreeding). We used meta‐analysis to summarize results from 83 predator removal studies from six continents. We also investigated whether characteristics of the prey, predator species, location, and study methodology explained heterogeneity in effect sizes. Removing predators increased hatching success, fledging success, and breeding populations. Removing all predator species achieved a significantly larger increase in breeding population than removing only a subset. Postbreeding population size was not improved on islands, or overall, but did increase on mainlands. Heterogeneity in effect sizes for the four population parameters was not explained by whether predators were native or introduced; prey were declining, migratory, or game species; or by the study methodology. Effect sizes for fledging success were smaller for ground‐nesting birds than those that nest elsewhere, but the difference was not significant. We conclude that current evidence indicates that predator removal is an effective strategy for the conservation of vulnerable bird populations. Nevertheless, the ethical and practical problems associated with predator removal may lead managers to favor alternative, nonlethal solutions. Research is needed to provide and synthesize data to determine whether these are effective management practices for future policies on bird conservation.     

Assessing Changes in Amphibian Population Dynamics Following Experimental Manipulations of Introduced Fish

Abstract: Sport‐fish introductions are now recognized as an important cause of amphibian decline, but few researchers have quantified the demographic responses of amphibians to current options in fisheries management designed to minimize effects on sensitive amphibians. Demographic analyses with mark–recapture data allow researchers to assess the relative importance of survival, local recruitment, and migration to changes in population densities. I conducted a 4‐year, replicated whole‐lake experiment in the Klamath Mountains of northern California (U.S.A.) to quantify changes in population density, survival, population growth rate, and recruitment of the Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in response to manipulations of non‐native fish populations. I compared responses of the frogs in lakes where fish were removed, in lakes in their naturally fish‐free state, and in lakes where fish remained that were either stocked annually or no longer being stocked. Within 3 years of fish removals from 3 lakes, frog densities increased by a factor of 13.6. The survival of young adult frogs increased from 59% to 94%, and realized population growth and recruitment rates at the fish‐removal lakes were more than twice as high as the rates for fish‐free reference lakes and lakes that contained fish. Population growth in the fish‐removal lakes was likely due to better on‐site recruitment of frogs to later life stages rather than increased immigration. The effects on R. cascadae of suspending stocking were ambiguous and suggested no direct benefit to amphibians. With amphibians declining worldwide, these results show that active restoration can slow or reverse the decline of species affected by fish stocking within a short time frame.     

Influences of Egg Laying Behavior on Pathogenic Infection of Amphibian Eggs

Mass mortality of developing amphibian eggs and larvae from pathogenic infection has been recently documented in some amphibian populations. For example, the pathogenic fungus, Saprolegnia ferax, has been linked with amphibian embryo mortality in the Pacific Northwest. Continued mortality in early life history stages may ultimately contribute to a population decline. We document the prevalence of S. ferax on embryos of three anuran species (   Bufo boreas, Rana cascadae, and Hyla regilla) common to the Pacific Northwest. These species differ in key aspects of their behavior and ecology, and these differences may lead to differential susceptibility to S. ferax. R. cascadae often lays its eggs communally and B. boreas usually deposits its eggs communally. We observed embryos at natural oviposition sites. Eggs laid communally had higher mortality than those laid away from other egg masses. Field experiments that manipulated both the spatial position and timing of egg laying demonstrated that eggs laid later and in closer proximity to communal masses had higher mortality. Our results suggest that eggs in communal masses are highly susceptible to infection with S. ferax.     

Identifying correlates of success and failure of native freshwater fish reintroductions

Reintroduction of imperiled native freshwater fish is becoming an increasingly important conservation tool amidst persistent anthropogenic pressures and new threats related to climate change. We summarized trends in native fish reintroductions in the current literature, identified predictors of reintroduction outcome, and devised recommendations for managers attempting future native fish reintroductions. We constructed random forest classifications using data from 260 published case studies of native fish reintroductions to estimate the effectiveness of variables in predicting reintroduction outcome. The outcome of each case was assigned as a success or failure on the basis of the author's perception of the outcome and on whether or not survival, spawning, or recruitment were documented during post‐reintroduction monitoring. Inadequately addressing the initial cause of decline was the best predictor of reintroduction failure. Variables associated with habitat (e.g., water quality, prey availability) were also good predictors of reintroduction outcomes, followed by variables associated with stocking (e.g., genetic diversity of stock source, duration of stocking event). Consideration of these variables by managers during the planning process may increase the likelihood for successful outcomes in future reintroduction attempts of native freshwater fish. Identificación de Correlaciones de Éxito y Fracaso de Reintroducciones de Peces de Nativos Agua Dulce     

Introduced trout sever trophic connections in watersheds: consequences for a declining amphibian

Trophic linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are increasingly recognized as important yet poorly known features of food webs. Here we describe research to understand the dynamics of lake food webs in relation to a native riparian amphibian and its interaction with introduced trout. The mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa is endemic to alpine watersheds of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the Transverse Ranges of California, but it has declined to a small fraction of its historical distribution and abundance. Although remaining frogs and introduced trout feed in different habitats of alpine lakes, our stable-isotope analyses clearly show that the same resource base of benthic invertebrates sustains their growth. During one period, insect emergence from naturally fishless lakes was nearly 20-fold higher compared to adjacent lakes with trout, showing that fish reduce availability of aquatic prey to amphibious and terrestrial consumers. Although trout cannot prey on adult frogs due to gape limitation, foraging post-metamorphic frogs are 10 times more abundant in the absence of trout, suggesting an important role for competition for prey by trout in highly unproductive alpine watersheds. Most Sierran lakes contain fish, and those that do not are usually small isolated ponds; in our study, these two lake types supported the lowest densities of post-metamorphic frogs, and these frogs were less reliant on local, benthic sources of productivity. Since Rana muscosa was formerly the most abundant vertebrate in the Sierra Nevada, the reduction in energy flow from lake benthos to this consumer due to fish introductions may have had negative consequences for its numerous terrestrial predators, many of which have also declined. We suggest that disruptions of trophic connections between aquatic and terrestrial food webs are an important but poorly understood consequence of fish introduction to many thousands of montane lakes and streams worldwide and may contribute to declines of native consumers in riparian habitats.     

Interspecific Variation in Susceptibility of Frog Tadpoles to the Pathogenic Fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Abstract:  As part of an overall biodiversity crisis many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous causes have been invoked to explain these declines. These include habitat destruction, climate change, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation, environmental contamination, and the introduction of non-native species and diseases. Several types of pathogens have been implicated in contributing to amphibian population declines: viruses, bacteria, oomycetes, and fungi. One particular fungus, the chytridiomycete Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis may have caused amphibian population declines in several regions. This pathogen causes chytridiomycosis, which is fatal to newly metamorphic and adult amphibians of certain species. We present experimental evidence that larval stages may also be susceptible to exposure to Batrachochytrium . There was, however, differential sensitivity to B. dendrobatidis in larvae we examined. In laboratory experiments, larval western toads (  Bufo boreas ) exposed to B. dendrobatidis experienced increased mortality and behaviors that suggested they were affected by exposure compared with unexposed control tadpoles. Larvae of Cascades frogs (  Rana cascadae ), bullfrogs ( R. catesbeiana ), and Pacific treefrogs ( Hyla regilla ) did not die after exposure to Batrachochytrium and appeared to behave normally. R. cascadae larvae exposed to B. dendrobatidis , however, showed an increase incidence in mouthpart abnormalities, a characteristic effect of chytridiomycosis, compared with unexposed controls. These results show that Batrachochytrium can negatively affect some species of amphibians at the larval stage and not others. The implications of interspecific variation in susceptibility to fungal infection are broad.     

The Paradox of the Long‐Term Positive Effects of a North American Crayfish on a European Community of Predators

Abstract: Invasions of non‐native species are one of the major causes of losses of native species. In some cases, however, non‐natives may also have positive effects on native species. We investigated the potential facilitative effects of the North American red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on the community of predators in southwestern Spain. To do so, we examined the diets of predators in the area and their population trends since introduction of the crayfish. Most predator species consumed red swamp crayfish, which sometimes occurred in over 50% of their diet samples. Moreover, the abundance of species preying on crayfish increased significantly in the area as opposed to the abundance of herbivores and to predator populations in other areas of Europe, where those predators are even considered threatened. Thus, we report the first case in which one non‐native species is both beneficial because it provides prey for threatened species and detrimental because it can drive species at lower trophic levels to extinction. Increases in predator numbers that are associated with non‐native species of prey, especially when some of these predators are also invasive non‐natives, may increase levels of predation on other species and produce cascading effects that threaten native biota at longer temporal and larger spatial scales. Future management plans should include the complexity of interactions between invasive non‐natives and the entire native community, the feasibility of successful removal of non‐native species, and the potential social and economic interests in the area.     

Validity of the Prey‐Trap Hypothesis for Carnivore‐Ungulate Interactions at Wildlife‐Crossing Structures

Abstract: Wildlife‐exclusion fencing and wildlife‐crossing structures (e.g., underpasses and overpasses) are becoming increasingly common features of highway projects around the world. The prey‐trap hypothesis posits that predators exploit crossing structures to detect and capture prey. The hypothesis predicts that predation events occur closer to a highway after the construction of fences and crossing structures and that prey species’ use of crossings increases the probability that predators will attack prey. We examined interactions between ungulates and large carnivores at 28 wildlife crossing structures along 45 km of the Trans‐Canada Highway in Banff National Park, Alberta. We obtained long‐term records of locations where ungulates were killed (kill sites) before and after crossing structures were built. We also placed remote, motion‐triggered cameras at two crossing structures to monitor predator behavior following ungulate passage through the structure. The proximity of ungulate kill sites to the highway was similar before and after construction of fencing and crossing structures. We found only five kill sites near crossing structures after more than 32,000 visits over 13 years. We found no evidence that predator behavior at crossing structures is affected by prey movement. Our results suggest that interactions between large mammals and their prey at wildlife‐crossing structures in Banff National Park are not explained by the prey‐trap hypothesis.     

Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data

Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High‐density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10‐40% of the landscape. Compared with density‐based models, the occurrence‐based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density‐based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.     

Rabbit biocontrol and landscape‐scale recovery of threatened desert mammals

Funding for species conservation is insufficient to meet the current challenges facing global biodiversity, yet many programs use expensive single‐species recovery actions and neglect broader management that addresses threatening processes. Arid Australia has the world's worst modern mammalian extinction record, largely attributable to competition from introduced herbivores, particularly European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and predation by feral cats (Felis catus) and foxes (Vulpes vulpes). The biological control agent rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) was introduced to Australia in 1995 and resulted in dramatic, widespread rabbit suppression. We compared the area of occupancy and extent of occurrence of 4 extant species of small mammals before and after RHDV outbreak, relative to rainfall, sampling effort, and rabbit and predator populations. Despite low rainfall during the first 14 years after RHDV, 2 native rodents listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the dusky hopping‐mouse (Notomys fuscus) and plains mouse (Pseudomys australis), increased their extent of occurrence by 241–365%. A threatened marsupial micropredator, the crest‐tailed mulgara (Dasycercus cristicauda), underwent a 70‐fold increase in extent of occurrence and a 20‐fold increase in area of occupancy. Both bottom‐up and top‐down trophic effects were attributed to RHDV, namely decreased competition for food resources and declines in rabbit‐dependent predators. Based on these sustained increases, these 3 previously threatened species now qualify for threat‐category downgrading on the IUCN Red List. These recoveries are on a scale rarely documented in mammals and give impetus to programs aimed at targeted use of RHDV in Australia, rather than simply employing top‐down threat‐based management of arid ecosystems. Conservation programs that take big‐picture approaches to addressing threatening processes over large spatial scales should be prioritized to maximize return from scarce conservation funding. Further, these should be coupled with long‐term ecological monitoring, a critical tool in detecting and understanding complex ecosystem change.     

Community ecology of invasions: direct and indirect effects of multiple invasive species on aquatic communities

With many ecosystems now supporting multiple nonnative species from different trophic levels, it can be challenging to disentangle the net effects of invaders within a community context. Here, we combined wetland surveys with a mesocosm experiment to examine the individual and combined effects of nonnative fish predators and nonnative bullfrogs on aquatic communities. Among 139 wetlands, nonnative fish (bass, sunfish, and mosquitofish) negatively influenced the probability of occupancy of Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla), but neither invader correlated strongly with occupancy by California newts (Taricha torosa), western toads (Anaxyrus boreas), or California red-legged frogs (Rana draytonii). In mesocosms, mosquitofish dramatically reduced the abundance of zooplankton and palatable amphibian larvae (P. regilla and T. torosa), leading to increases in nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton (through loss of zooplankton), and rapid growth of unpalatable toad larvae (through competitive release). Bullfrog larvae reduced the growth of native anurans but had no effect on survival. Despite strong effects on natives, invaders did not negatively influence one another, and their combined effects were additive. Our results highlight how the net effects of multiple nonnative species depend on the trophic level of each invader, the form and magnitude of invader interactions, and the traits of native community members.     

Effects of Introduced Salmonids on a Montane Population of Iberian Frogs

Abstract:  Amphibians are declining worldwide because of multiple factors, including human-mediated introduction of fishes into naturally fishless areas. Although several studies have focused on the effect of exotic fishes on native amphibians breeding in ponds or lakes, little is known about their effects on stream-breeding species. We studied the effects of introductions of native brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) and exotic brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) on the stream-breeding, endemic Iberian frog (  Rana iberica ) in a protected area in central Spain. We assessed occurrence patterns of tadpoles and salmonids and compared habitat use of the three species. We also determined experimentally whether chemical cues from salmonids elicited antipredator behavior in tadpoles. Finally, we assessed the relative influence of tadpole habitat preferences, differences in salmonid species, and invasion geography on tadpole occurrence. Despite widely overlapping habitat preferences, tadpoles and trout did not coexist, with the former restricted to fishless habitats. Tadpoles detected chemical cues from both trout species and reacted by decreasing their activity, although the response toward the native brown trout was stronger. The residual distribution of Iberian frogs in Peñalara is better explained by the geography of fish invasions than by the fish species involved. Measures such as fish extirpation from certain areas, aimed at recovering lost habitat and improving connectivity among remaining populations of Iberian frogs, seem critical for the species' long-term survival in central Spain.     

Transfer of a Pathogen from Fish to Amphibians

Abstract: Ecological studies of exotic species focus primarily on how invaders directly affect particular resident species. In contrast, little is known about the indirect effects of introduced species on native communities, including how pathogens may be spread by introduced species. We provide evidence suggesting that introduced fish may serve as a vector for a pathogenic oomycete, Saprolegnia ferax , that has been associated with embryonic mortality of amphibians in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, U.S.A. In laboratory experiments, mortality induced by S. ferax was greater in western toad (   Bufo boreas ) embryos exposed directly to hatchery-reared rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) experimentally infected with S. ferax and hatchery-reared trout not experimentally infected than in control embryos. Embryos also developed significant S. ferax infections when raised on soil that was exposed to trout experimentally infected with S. ferax . Furthermore, toad embryos exposed to S. ferax isolated from sites where Saprolegnia outbreaks are common experienced higher mortality than embryos exposed to S. ferax isolated from sites where Saprolegnia outbreaks have not occurred. Given the widespread practice of introducing hatchery-reared fishes, we suggest that fish used in stocking programs could be an important vector for diseases responsible for amphibian losses.     

Conserving tigers in working landscapes

Tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation efforts in Asia are focused on protected areas embedded in human‐dominated landscapes. A system of protected areas is an effective conservation strategy for many endangered species if the network is large enough to support stable metapopulations. The long‐term conservation of tigers requires that the species be able to meet some of its life‐history needs beyond the boundaries of small protected areas and within the working landscape, including multiple‐use forests with logging and high human use. However, understanding of factors that promote or limit the occurrence of tigers in working landscapes is incomplete. We assessed the relative influence of protection status, prey occurrence, extent of grasslands, intensity of human use, and patch connectivity on tiger occurrence in the 5400 km² Central Terai Landscape of India, adjacent to Nepal. Two observer teams independently surveyed 1009 km of forest trails and water courses distributed across 60 166‐km² cells. In each cell, the teams recorded detection of tiger signs along evenly spaced trail segments. We used occupancy models that permitted multiscale analysis of spatially correlated data to estimate cell‐scale occupancy and segment‐scale habitat use by tigers as a function of management and environmental covariates. Prey availability and habitat quality, rather than protected‐area designation, influenced tiger occupancy. Tiger occupancy was low in some protected areas in India that were connected to extensive areas of tiger habitat in Nepal, which brings into question the efficacy of current protection and management strategies in both India and Nepal. At a finer spatial scale, tiger habitat use was high in trail segments associated with abundant prey and large grasslands, but it declined as human and livestock use increased. We speculate that riparian grasslands may provide tigers with critical refugia from human activity in the daytime and thereby promote tiger occurrence in some multiple‐use forests. Restrictions on human‐use in high‐quality tiger habitat in multiple‐use forests may complement existing protected areas and collectively promote the persistence of tiger populations in working landscapes.     

Lethal Effects of Water Quality on Threatened California Salamanders but Not on Co‐Occurring Hybrid Salamanders

Biological invasions and habitat alteration are often detrimental to native species, but their interactions are difficult to predict. Interbreeding between native and introduced species generates novel genotypes and phenotypes, and human land use alters habitat structure and chemistry. Both invasions and habitat alteration create new biological challenges and opportunities. In the intensively farmed Salinas Valley, California (U.S.A.), threatened California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense) have been replaced by hybrids between California tiger salamander and introduced barred tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum mavortium). We conducted an enclosure experiment to examine the effects habitat modification and relative frequency of hybrid and native California tiger salamanders have on recruitment of salamanders and their prey, Pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla). We tested whether recruitment differed among genetic classes of tiger salamanders (hybrid or native) and pond hydroperiod (seasonal or perennial). Roughly 6 weeks into the experiment, 70% (of 378 total) of salamander larvae died in 4 out of 6 ponds. Native salamanders survived (n = 12) in these ponds only if they had metamorphosed prior to the die‐offs. During die‐offs, all larvae of native salamanders died, whereas 56% of hybrid larvae died. We necropsied native and hybrid salamanders, tested water quality, and queried the California Department of Pesticide Regulation database to investigate possible causes of the die‐offs. Salamander die‐offs, changes in the abundance of other community members (invertebrates, algae, and cyanobacteria), shifts in salamander sex ratio, and patterns of pesticide application in adjacent fields suggest that pesticide use may have contributed to die‐offs. That all survivors were hybrids suggests that environmental stress may promote rapid displacement of native genotypes. Efectos Letales de la Calidad del Agua sobre Salamandras de California Amenazadas pero no sobre Salamandras Híbridas Concurrentes     

Resolving whether botanic gardens are on the road to conservation or a pathway for plant invasions

A global conservation goal is to understand the pathways through which invasive species are introduced into new regions. Botanic gardens are a pathway for the introduction of invasive non‐native plants, but a quantitative assessment of the risks they pose has not been performed. I analyzed data on the living collections of over 3000 botanic gardens worldwide to quantify the temporal trend in the representation of non‐native species; the relative composition of threatened, ornamental, or invasive non‐native plant species; and the frequency with which botanic gardens implement procedures to address invasive species. While almost all of the world's worst invasive non‐native plants occurred in one or more living collections (99%), less than one‐quarter of red‐listed threatened species were cultivated (23%). Even when cultivated, individual threatened species occurred in few living collections (7.3), while non‐native species were on average grown in 6 times as many botanic gardens (44.3). As a result, a botanic garden could, on average, cultivate four times as many invasive non‐native species (20) as red‐listed threatened species (5). Although the risk posed by a single living collection is small, the probability of invasion increases with the number of botanic gardens within a region. Thus, while both the size of living collections and the proportion of non‐native species cultivated have declined during the 20th century, this reduction in risk is offset by the 10‐fold increase in the number of botanic gardens established worldwide. Unfortunately, botanic gardens rarely implement regional codes of conduct to prevent plant invasions, few have an invasive species policy, and there is limited monitoring of garden escapes. This lack of preparedness is of particular concern given the rapid increase in living collections worldwide since 1950, particularly in South America and Asia, and highlights past patterns of introduction will be a poor guide to determining future invasion risks.     

Assessing ecological correlates of marine bird declines to inform marine conservation

Identifying drivers of ecosystem change in large marine ecosystems is central for their effective management and conservation. This is a sizable challenge, particularly in ecosystems transcending international borders, where monitoring and conservation of long‐range migratory species and their habitats are logistically and financially problematic. Here, using tools borrowed from epidemiology, we elucidated common drivers underlying species declines within a marine ecosystem, much in the way epidemiological analyses evaluate risk factors for negative health outcomes to better inform decisions. Thus, we identified ecological traits and dietary specializations associated with species declines in a community of marine predators that could be reflective of ecosystem change. To do so, we integrated count data from winter surveys collected in long‐term marine bird monitoring programs conducted throughout the Salish Sea—a transboundary large marine ecosystem in North America's Pacific Northwest. We found that decadal declines in winter counts were most prevalent among pursuit divers such as alcids (Alcidae) and grebes (Podicipedidae) that have specialized diets based on forage fish, and that wide‐ranging species without local breeding colonies were more prone to these declines. Although a combination of factors is most likely driving declines of diving forage fish specialists, we propose that changes in the availability of low‐trophic prey may be forcing wintering range shifts of diving birds in the Salish Sea. Such a synthesis of long‐term trends in a marine predator community not only provides unique insights into the types of species that are at risk of extirpation and why, but may also inform proactive conservation measures to counteract threats—information that is paramount for species‐specific and ecosystem‐wide conservation. Evaluación de las Correlaciones Ecológicas de las Declinaciones de Aves Marinas para Informar a la Conservación Marina     

Reciprocal phenotypic plasticity in a predator-prey interaction between larval amphibians

In biological interactions, phenotypic change in interacting organisms induced by their interaction partners causes a substantial shift in some environmental factor of the partners, which may subsequently change their phenotype in response to that modified environmental factor. Few examples of such arms-race-like plastic responses, known as reciprocal phenotypic plasticity, have been identified in predator-prey interactions. We experimentally identified a reciprocal defensive plastic response of a prey species against a predator with a predaceous phenotype using a model system of close predator-prey interaction. Rana pirica tadpoles (the prey species) were reared with larvae of the salamander Hynobius retardatus (the predator species) having either a predaceous or a typical, nonpredaceous phenotype. The H. retardatus larvae with the predaceous phenotype, which is known to be induced by the presence of R. pirica tadpoles, induced a more defensive phenotype in the tadpoles than did larvae with the typical phenotype. The result suggests that the reciprocal phenotypic plasticity of R. pirica tadpoles is in response to a phenotype-specific signal under a close-signal recognition process.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

Assumption‐versus data‐based approaches to summarizing species’ ranges

For conservation decision making, species’ geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse‐resolution extent‐of‐occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent‐of‐occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine‐resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent‐of‐occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well‐documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species’ true areas of distribution. However, no model‐evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse‐grained, global‐extent studies, their continued use in on‐the‐ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data‐driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data‐driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well‐founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species’ distributional patterns for conservation applications.