Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (~38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

地震预警系统应用的社会影响调查与分析

地震预警系统建设是降低地震灾害的一个重要途径,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失,但地震预警系统目前还处于发展阶段,应用中存在一定风险。设计了若干个关于地震预警系统应用的社会调查问卷,以通过调查结果定性地评估地震预警系统产生的社会影响,统计公众对预警系统的认识和需求,分析预警信息发布对公众的影响和公众对地震漏报、误报等风险的接受程度,以及地震预警系统相关的法律问题。调查结果显示,我国公众对地震预警系统的期望程度及有效性评价均很高,但也存在着一些问题,如对地震预警相关知识了解较少,对紧急事件应变能力较差,对预警盲区和漏报等风险接受程度较低等。最后,结合国外地震预警系统的研究成果和应用现状,提出了相关建议及应对措施,希望能对我国预警系统的建设提供参考作用。     

Environmental hazards and waste management in Nsukka urban metropolis in Enugu State of Nigeria: how much are people willing to pay?

Solid waste management in Nsukka town in Enugu state of Nigeria has remained a major challenge despite the efforts of the state government through the Enugu State Waste Management Agency (ESWAMA). The current method whereby households dump refuse at designated locations by the road side to be cleared later has not yielded much improved sanitation of the town. In this study we propose an alternative waste management method that is believed to be superior to the status quo if properly managed. This study applies Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate the households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for this new method in order to ascertain its applicability in Nsukka urban. Data were collected from a sample of 500 households stratified according to major streets in the town. The results show that the mean WTP using different specifications of the model varies from N527.50 (about 2.68) to N530.90 (about 2.68) per month. The policy implication is that if the waste management agency adopts the proposed scenario and manages it well the average revenue realizable per month would be about N13,750,516 (about $69,800). The authorities can compare this with the cost of providing the service and see if it is worth the effort.     

Characterizing vulnerability to water scarcity: The case of a groundwater-dependent, rapidly urbanizing region

Groundwater overdraft is a resource management issue that poses a threat for the security of communities. Impacts of groundwater overdraft are influenced by the biophysical and social contexts of water management. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability to water scarcity in spatial terms using biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was used to establish areas of vulnerability based upon hydrologic variability in water resource availability within a groundwater basin, three types of water management systems, and 10 sociodemographic characteristics. Our study area is in the rapidly urbanizing Arizona Central Highlands, located 150 km north of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA. Results indicate that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not necessarily intersect with the most vulnerable populations and that local differences in vulnerability are interrelated, rather than independent, outcomes in a process of socioenvironmental transformation. Vulnerability is influenced by laws that deny access to local surface waters and lead to dependence on fossil groundwater, and by economic reliance on urbanization. Localities attempt to reduce vulnerability through the development of community water systems and the expansion of water frontiers. While such strategies may reduce local vulnerability, they are not sustainable solutions because they transfer risks to other places, and thus contribute to vulnerability elsewhere.     

地震预测预警等级风险评估与分区分级发布方案的研究

从地震预测预警的思路和要达到的减灾目的出发,提出了发布预测预警的基本原则,并根据地震灾害的特点,给出了地震预测预警等级的划分。结合我国地震预报、震灾预防等方面的理论与实践,提出了预测预警等级的风险评估方法和分区分级发布方案。以地震实例对风险评估、分区分级发布方案进行了案例分析和检验。     

农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其家庭际差异——以2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震灾区为例

以2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震灾区为例,通过现场访谈和问卷调查,分析了该地区农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其家庭际的差异性。结果表明:当地农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的水平尚不理想,综合防震减灾能力较弱;家庭对地震灾害知识和防震减灾技能的掌握程度,显著地影响着其在震时及震后的响应行为和态度,其中防震减灾技能的影响更显著;经济收入和教育背景不同的家庭,其地震灾害的认知水平和响应能力也呈现出明显的差异性,其中受教育程度的影响更明显,且可能是最根本的影响因素;家庭人口总数与家庭地震灾害认知与响应的综合能力呈显著的负相关关系,但这种影响也叠加了家庭经济文化因素的影响;对研究区而言,加强防震减灾实用技能和震时如何有效应对地震影响方面的教育,具有更重要的现实意义。     

2020年全国公众防震减灾素养水平及主要特点研究

2020年中国地震局开展了全国公众防震减灾知识普及和科普满意度抽样调查,结果显示,17.1%的受访者具备防震减灾素养,与2018年中国公民科学素质调查结果相比较,公众防震减灾素养水平的区域分布有明显不一样的规律,公众防震减灾素养水平与区域经济发展水平之间没有明显的相关性,区域地震灾害程度和个人地震经历对公众防震减灾素养水平有显著的影响。防震减灾素养水平在城乡、性别、受教育水平等不同群体中的差别,和中国公民科学素质调查结果基本一致,受教育水平对防震减灾素养水平影响最大。在不同年龄群体中的差别则和中国公民科学素质调查结果不同,显示出独特的规律。在防震减灾科普工作中,需要重视公众防震减灾素养水平的这些特点,采取有针对性的措施来提升科普效率。     

Rural residents and choice of building earthquake-resistant house: results of a choice experiment study

Rural settlements, especially in developing countries, are disproportionally vulnerable to natural hazards due to both biophysical and social vulnerability. Building hazard-resistant houses requires a thorough understanding of hazards and institutional and financial resources. However, it is equally important for planners and policymakers to know how rural residents make the tradeoff between various housing attributes when provided with the resources such as low-interest housing construction loans. In this study, we use a choice experiment (CE) to examine rural households' preference for earthquake resistance when building houses. A total of 300 households from randomly selected villages in central districts of Guilan Province in Iran were recruited for a CE study in which they had to choose between a number of houses that differed in terms of the required construction loan, resistance to earthquakes, size, and exterior and interior designs. Our results show that the average resident preferred larger houses with better exterior and interior designs to more earthquake-resistant houses, and is willing to spend more on these attributes than earthquake safety. These results indicate that rural households are willing to receive loans to improve their houses but that this does not translate into more earthquake-resistant houses.     

基于小程序的海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务

台风多要素信息及灾情状况是海洋牧场各方急切想掌握的,而应用于海洋牧场灾害预警专报服务还未见报道,基于此开发了海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务小程序。结合wx.request请求获取第三方要素数据与自建云数据库访问灾情数据。搭建海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务的层次结构体系构架,推出海洋牧场气象要素预警预报、海洋牧场水文要素预警预报、海洋牧场台风要素预警预报、海洋牧场台风灾害预警专报、服务订阅与消息推送等应用服务功能。基于MAP组件技术整合“一张图”展示海洋牧场台风灾害的数据、服务及成果。1409号台风“威马逊”实例应用表明,海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务小程序为防风减灾提供了一种快捷实用的应用途径。     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

地震类突发事件中公共财政应急机制分析

通过对我国地震应急组织体系及财政应对地震类灾害的流程分析,结合国外应对地震类突发事件的成功经验,分析了我国公共财政应对过程中存在的不足,最后建立了5个应对地震类突发事件的财政应急机制,分别是公共财政日常运行机制、震前预警防范机制、震时响应机制、震后恢复重建机制和财政监督检查机制。     

地震类突发事件中的公共财政应急机制

通过对我国地震应急组织体系及财政应对地震类灾害的流程分析,结合国外应对地震类突发事件的成功经验,分析了我国公共财政应对地震类灾害事件中存在的不足,最后通过对应急管理主体机理特征的分析,提出了公共财政应对地震类突发事件的五大机制,即公共财政日常运行机制、震前预警防范机制、震时响应机制、震后恢复重建机制和财政监督检查机制.     

突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制

借鉴SARS事件的经验教训,探讨了如何加快构建突发性地震灾害危机的预测预警、应急处理、信息发布和宣传教育等四个方面的管理机制,并提出了建立地震灾害预警等级及其相应的应急预案和信息发布措施的新思维.     

泥石流早期识别与监测预警研究进展探讨

近年来,受极端地震和极端天气的影响,泥石流灾害日益加剧,山区城镇泥石流风险问题逐渐引起大众的关注。泥石流的早期识别和监测预警作为防灾减灾的有效途径之一,已在山区城镇及重大工程建设区发挥重要的减灾作用。分析总结泥石流早期识别与监测预警技术方法和理论的目的在于掌握其发展现状与问题,进一步为山区城镇泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供有效应急对策。同时指出改进当前存在问题可为后期发展提供参考依据。本文通过文献综述法在阅读大量文献基础上,从技术与设备、预警理论与模型和监测预警体系3个方面对泥石流早期识别和监测预警研究进行回顾与评述,并针对其不足提出了加强深度学习在泥石流早期识别中运用,注重构建地面因素与天上因素耦合的泥石流预警模型,完善泥石流灾害应急系统的初步看法。     

Estimating the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage: a counterfactual approach

This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex‐ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake‐proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before–after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

The Spitak (Armenia, USSR) Earthquake: Residential Building Typology and Seismic Behaviour

The 1988 earthquake in Armenia was the most serious seismic disaster since the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China. At least 25,000 people lost their lives in a tremor of moderate magnitude and the USSR suffered a loss of more than 2.5 per cent of 1988's GDP. Research at the Martin Centre on the effects of earthquakes on human lives has shown an increase in global earthquake mortality rate, despite the well known improvements in some countries. The Armenian disaster was a warning to all of us concerned with natural or man-made disasters. Areas of potential high hazard are pointed out for the sub-Caucasian region. Construction practices similar to those in Armenia are certainly found in many other parts of the world, with some regional variations, and the fast assimilation of the lessons is an important target. The structural characteristics of all the residential building types existing in the affected area are presented in terms of their seismic vulnerability. Vulnerable points are discussed with a view to low cost interventions that will drastically improve the seismic safety of new buildings.