Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

The economics of uranium demand

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s.     

Impact of forest policies on timber production in India: a review

Until the 20th century, forest policies across the globe focused primarily on effective forest utilization for timber production. Subsequent loss of forest land prompted many countries to review and amend such policies, in an attempt to incorporate the principles of conservation and sustainable forest management. One of the countries to implement such changes was India, which introduced new policies, acts and programmes to regulate forest conversion and degradation, beginning in the 1980s. These policies, acts, and programmes included the Forest Conservation Act of 1980, the National Forest Policy of 1988 and the Hon. Supreme Court Order of 1996. All of these regulations affected the timber supply from government forest areas, and created a huge gap in timber supply and demand. Currently, this deficit is met through imports and trees outside forests (TOFs). Timber production from government forest areas is abysmally low (3.35% of total demand) compared to potential timber production from TOFs, which fulfil 45% of the total timber demand in India. This implies that TOFs have immense potential in meeting the growing timber demand; however, they have not been fully utilized due to discrepancies in state level TOFs’ policies. The present paper provides a review of different forest policies, acts and guidelines in relation to timber production in India, and provides specific recommendations in order to maximize timber production in the context of increasing demand for timber products.     

Tri-generation investment analysis using Bayesian network: A case study

The increasing energy demand, increasing energy dependency, energy supply security, and environmental concerns have become a part of business policies since COP21 agreements in Paris, 2015. Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP or tri-generation) systems play an important role in paying the necessary attention to these policies. Tri-generation investment is a complex decision with hybrid use of energy resources. This article aims to reduce the complexity of this decision by the use of Bayesian belief networks in pre-investment stage of tri-generation investment project cycle. The proposed model gives an insight into decision analysis and helps the decision-makers either generate or purchase from it in order to meet the energy demand with different scenarios. The model is studied for a university case. The investment decision for a CCHP (tri-generation) system will be discussed as an alternative for purchasing the electricity and natural gas from the national grids.     

A panel study on the relationship between biofuels production and sustainable development

Biomass is one of the renewable energy sources on which policy makers are greatly dependent on since it is a flexible feedstock capable of conversion into electricity, transport liquid fuels and heat by chemical and biological processes on demand. Though numerous publications have examined the relationship of economic growth with renewable energy and other parameters, biomass energy has never been included in these studies. Then, this study examines the causal relationship within a multivariate panel cointegration/error correction framework which combines the cross-section and time series data while allowing for heterogeneity across different provinces. After employing panel data regression model ranging from 2003 through 2012 to examine the relationships of biofuels production with sustainable development in China, the paper concludes that the development of biofuel energy production integrated with the consideration of the improvement of income per capita, and the attraction of more capital investment, does make a significant contribution to economic growth. However, some negative side effects including the increase of greenhouse emissions and the decrease of marginal land still coexist with the economic development. Of course, the importance of these findings lies on their implications and their adoption on strategic policies.     

The potential supply of energy minerals in Australia

Australia is a sparsely populated country that is well endowed with energy resources, and the size of coal, natural gas, and uranium reserves relative to domestic demand has given Australia the opportunity to become a major exporter of these fuels. This paper assesses Australian supply potential of these three fuels, together with crude oil, through to the early years of the next century. With the exception of crude oil, supply potential appears adequate to meet projected domestic and export demand. However, crude oil supplies are unlikely to meet domestic requirements, and to the shortfall may be considerable.     

核电环境风险研究进展及管理启示

为满足快速增长的电力需求,缓解传统化石能源紧缺及其所伴随的大气污染问题,发电过程中几乎不产生常规大气污染物的核电逐渐成为我国重要的能源战略选择。但是,由于核电站在运行过程中,特别是发生重大核事故时,产生的放射性物质可能对健康造成负面影响,发展核电仍然存在较大的争议和阻力。在此背景下,需要构建科学、完善的核电风险评估与管理体系,以保障我国的核电行业健康、有序发展。在对国内外核电风险评估研究现状进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对核电风险管理的意义,提出了我国未来构建核电风险评估与管理体系的建议。     

Electric power and the environment: an analysis of pollutant emissions at Argentine state-owned electric power stations

This paper describes the impact on particulate and 'greenhouse gases' emissions of substitution policies implemented by Argentine state-owned electric power stations. Those policies involve the substitution, on the one hand, of hydroelectric and nuclear energy for conventional thermal energy and, on the other hand, of natural gas for fuel oil, diesel oil and coal. As additional investments are required in conventional thermal power stations to prevent environmental pollution, the investment savings generated by substitution policies have been calculated. While the environmental impact of hydroelectric, nuclear and natural gas facilities is locally significant and is experienced in geographical areas away from cities, there can be no doubt that the substitution policies implemented in the Argentine electricity sector have overall both ecological and economic benefits.     

Uranium resource economics: An application of energy analysis

Current economic assessment implies that there are considerable quantities of uranium available for use in present thermal reactors, albeit at very high costs. However, this method of appraisal contains a fundamental contradiction concerning the relationship between the price of electricity and the cost of uranium concentrate. Derivation of real costs with the technique of energy analysis is used to correct this basic inconsistency. This approach demonstrates that the amount of economically recoverable uranium is substantially less than previously expected. Consequently, if current forecasts of nuclear power growth are achieved then serious shortages of uranium will occur in the foreseeable future.     

The UK national obsession with energy supply

Whilst the European Union is proposing a Directive on integrated resource planning and leading cities in both Europe and America are investing in demand side measures, the UK electricity industry seems to be obsessed with building more supply capacity. Recent developments in Leicestershire emphasise this obsession with energy supply.

There is an alternative and local government should be vigorously pursuing this by both a close liaison with local utilities and by increasing public awareness of the social, economic and environmental benefits of reducing energy demand and providing energy services.     

Economic rationale for Canada's future uranium policy

After the dramatic increase in prices for uranium over the 1972–1975 period, prices have declined in real terms. This article examines the future supply, demand and price trends for uranium, and predicts that a situation of excess supply will result in the 1980s, bringing a continuing decline in real prices, unless Canada and other net exporters, most importantly Australia, agree to restrict supplies in order to maintain the price of uranium at its present level in real terms. Such a policy would have substantial benefits for Canada and other net exporters of uranium.     

企业绿色供应链管理实践的阶段性及其特征研究

本文在总结绿色供应链管理(GSCM)的现有研究成果与实践经验的基础上,提出可将企业在推进GSCM的实践划分为4个阶段:生存需求阶段、初步合作阶段、源头绿色化阶段、自我价值实现阶段。设计了调查问卷,对165家国内企业在推进GSCM的实践情况进行了调研。研究结果表明:这些企业在GSCM方面尚处于初级阶段,具体表现为由"消极应对"向"有所策划和初步实践"过渡;这一阶段的主要实施手段包括"回收利用生产过程中产生的废料"、"要求供应商提供清洁环保的产品"、"为消费者提供产品相关的环境信息"、"推进清洁生产审核"等。通过该实证研究以期为政府有关部门制定促进可持续发展的相关政策提供参考。     

The UK national obsession with energy supply

Summary

Whilst the European Union is proposing a Directive on integrated resource planning and leading cities in both Europe and America are investing in demand side measures, the UK electricity industry seems to be obsessed with building more supply capacity. Recent developments in Leicestershire emphasise this obsession with energy supply.

There is an alternative and local government should be vigorously pursuing this by both a close liaison with local utilities and by increasing public awareness of the social, economic and environmental benefits of reducing energy demand and providing energy services.     

Perceptions towards solar mini‐grid systems in India: A multi‐stakeholder analysis

This study identifies and assesses the perspectives of four key stakeholder groups towards solar minigrids in rural India. The stakeholders considered are policymakers, minigrid developers and operators, development organizations, and national grid representatives. Recent state and national policies in India have increased the focus on minigrids and their services. In this study, stakeholder interviews were employed to identify the attitudes towards the recent electricity policy, the underlying context for minigrid development, the role of minigrids in rural electrification, and the inclusion of minigrid systems within the larger framework of electricity sector policies by the recent government minigrid policies. Results indicate that stakeholders agree that minigrids, as a rural electricity service, are currently viable to complement the national grid due to their high reliability, performance in remote regions, and diminishing cost per unit. However, stakeholders disagree on the future outcomes, with diverging views on the priority of minigrids as an electrification tool in the face of the expanding central grid, the ideal implementation strategy for minigrids, and the potential for grid‐minigrid interaction. Based on stakeholder feedback, the growth of minigrids in India is likely to be constrained by the confidence in recent policies, necessitating more frequent dialogue among decision makers and a solidified relationship to the national electricity grid.     

The African electric power sector in the context of an acute financial crisis

There has been a sharp downturn in the building of electricity production and distribution facilities in sub-Saharan Africa due to economic and financial constraints. In part this was due to the steady decline in GDP in sub-Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s. The slackening growth of demand and the continuing decline in existing generating capacity have led to a shift in emphasis towards the restructuring of electricity companies, management improvements and the rehabilitation of existing plants rather than new investment in production and distribution facilities. Nevertheless, valid doubts remain as to the ability of the African electricity sector to mobilize sufficient resources in the medium term to ensure its development.     

Large-scale baseload wind power in China

This paper presents a novel strategy for developing wind power in large-scale (multi-GW) wind farms in China. It involves combining oversized wind farms, large-scale electrical storage and long-distance transmission lines to deliver 'baseload wind power' to distant electricity demand centers. Baseload wind power is typically more valuable to the electric utility than intermittent wind power, so that storage can be economically attractive even in instances where the cost per kWh is somewhat higher than without storage.
The prospective costs for this approach to developing wind power are illustrated by modifying an oversized wind farm at Huitengxile, Inner Mongolia. The site has an average power density of 580 W/m² at 50 m hub heights and is located 500 km north of Beijing. Using locally mass-produced wind turbines there are good prospects that wind power would be cost-competitive with coal power, on a lifecycle cost basis, while providing substantial net environmental benefits.
Finally, the institutional challenges related to the prospect of large-scale wind energy development are addressed. Especially important are policies aimed at developing the capacity for mass production of as much of this technology in China as is feasible. Promising instruments for speeding up the introduction of this technology include: (i) international joint ventures between foreign vendors and developers and Chinese manufacturers; and (ii) wind resource development concessions.     

Two-stage vertex analysis method for planning electric power systems with greenhouse gas abatement consideration

This study presents a two-stage vertex analysis (TSVA) method for the planning of electric power systems (EPS) under uncertainty. TSVA has advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, TSVA can incorporate greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement policies directly into its optimization process, and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions directly into its modeling formulation and solution procedure. The TSVA method is applied to a case study of planning EPS and it is demonstrated how the TSVA efficiently identify optimal electricity-generation schemes that could help to minimize system cost under different GHG-abatement considerations. Different combinative considerations on the uncertain inputs lead to varied system costs and GHG emissions. Results reveal that the total electricity supply will rise up along with the time period due to the increasing demand and, at the same time, more non-fossil fuels should be used to satisfy the increasing requirement for GHG mitigation. Moreover, uncertainties in connection with complexities in terms of information quality (e.g., capacity, efficiency, and demand) result in changed electricity-generation patterns, GHG-abatement amounts, as well as system costs. Minimax regret (MMR) analysis technique is employed to identify desired alternative that reflects compromises between system cost and system-failure risk.     

United States uranium resources the 1975–2000 outlook

The status of uranium resources for the USA for the period 1975–2000 can only be estimated within rather broad limits due to a complex interplay of the many factors involved. Minimum estimates for uranium oxide requirements to fuel light water nuclear reactors (LWRs) alone range from 2 × 10⁶ to 2.25 × 10⁶ tonnes U₃ O₈. These limits are deemed reasonable due to the unlikelihood of a firm commitment to the use of fast breeder reactors (FBRs) by the government; tentative decision dates range from 1988 to 2000 or so but, even presuming the former, the impact on uranium needs will not be felt until after 2000. A wider use of converter reactors may lighten the eventual uranium needs close to 2000. These reactors, however, were originally planned only for interim use during the change-over from LWRs to FBRs; hence their increased use will not affect the uranium demand until the next century. Present plans call for an accelerated exploration and development programme involving federal and state agencies with industry and other sources.     

RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.