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1.
A systems approach evolved from the product of sole crop land equivalent ratios (LER) yielded a non-linear and unified concept of land equivalent coefficient (LEC), which can also be expressed as a productivity coefficient (PC). Both the mixture LER, obtained by summation of sole crop LER, and the LEC, measure mixture productivity, while the latter, which also measures intercrop interaction, proved to be a superior index for the evaluation of mixture performance. The philosophy behind the LEC and the PC was satisfied from the geometric point of view and this showed that mixtures with stable potentials are superior to their components planted as sole crops on per unit area productivity. Mixture superiority also increases with increasing number of crop components. The formulation of this model and its advantages are discussed.  相似文献   

2.
Land degradation in terms of soil degradation is a major environmental issue posing threat to sustainable livelihood in the semi-arid region of Central Myanmar. However, the studies on soil degradation status and its impacts in this region are very scanty. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of land degradation on crop production both in terms of area and yield in the Dry Zone of Myanmar. Remote sensing and geographic information system-based modelling was utilized to assess and map soil erosion rates. Household survey was conducted to understand the causes of land degradation and its impacts on crop productivity and livelihoods. It has been found out that the current rate of soil erosion ranged from 0 to 114 t ha–1 yr–1, and that the average rate of soil erosion increased from 14.2 to 54.6 t ha–1 yr–1 over a period from 2000 to 2012. The major types of land degradation were physical and chemical soil degradation. Farmers identified topographic condition, soil types, improper crop management practices and climatic factors as the main causes of soil erosion. The observed crop yields of monsoon rice, groundnut, sesame and cotton in the highly degraded area were 3–12 times lower compared with the yields of these crops grown in less degraded area. Livelihoods of the farmers in the high-degraded area were affected by crop yield reduction, increased cultivation cost and increased uncultivable land area. The impact of land degradation on crop production was dependent on the severity of degradation. This suggests that advanced conservation measures are immediately required and the supportive policy strategies need to be implemented to educate farmers and to strengthen extension services for sustainable land management in the Dry Zone of Myanmar.  相似文献   

3.
《Ecological modelling》2007,200(1-2):89-98
Run-time calibration, i.e. adjusting simulation results for field observations of model driving variables during run-time, may allow correcting for deviations between complex mechanistic simulation model results and actual field conditions. Leaf area index (LAI) and canopy nitrogen contents (LeafNWt) are the most important driving variables for these models, as they govern light interception and photosynthetic production capacity of the crop. Remote sensing may provide (spatial) data from which such information can be estimated. How, when and at what frequency such additional information is integrated in the simulation process may have various effects on the simulations. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of different run-time calibration scenarios for final grain yield (FGY) simulations in order to optimize remote sensing image (RS) acquisition. The PlantSys model was calibrated on LAI and LeafNWt for maize in France and used to simulate maize crop growth in the Argentina and the USA, for which non-destructive estimates of LAI and leaf chlorophyll contents were acquired by optical measurement techniques. Leaf chlorophyll data were used to estimate LeafNWt. Due to its structure, the PlantSys model was more susceptible to run-time calibration with LeafNWt than with LAI. Run-time calibration with LAI showed the largest effect on FGY before and around flowering, and could mainly be related to maintenance respiration costs. Run-time calibration with LeafNWt showed the largest effect on FGY at and after flowering and could mainly be related to the change in effective radiation interception due to change in leaf life. The accuracy of LAI estimates showed a major effect on FGY for underestimations but was small in absolute sense. The accuracy of LeafNWt estimates had significant impact at all crop development stages, but was the strongest after flowering where crop growth and nitrogen uptake are less able to recuperate from changes in LeafNWt. In absolute sense, the effect on FGY was as strong as the accuracy of the LeafNWt estimates when applied in the early reproductive stages. Based on these results it was concluded that remotely sensed in-field variability of LAI and LeafNWt is valuable information that can be used to spatially differentiate model simulations. Run-time calibration at sub-field level may lead to more accurate simulation results for whole fields.  相似文献   

4.
Trade‐offs in ecosystem services (ES) have received increasing attention because provisioning services often come at the expense of biodiversity loss. When land‐use patterns are not maximally efficient relative to productivity, provisioning services, such as crop production, can often be increased without losing biodiversity. The Atlantic Forest (AF) encompasses dense, mixed, and seasonal forests and has high levels of endemism and anthropogenic threat. We examined trade‐offs between biodiversity and crop production in the AF to provide insights into land‐use management decisions. We developed a biodiversity metric that combines information on tree species richness, evolutionary distinctiveness, and rarity at the local level. We examined the extent to which the nature of ES trade‐offs differ among the 3 forest types. We assessed how annual deforestation rates and land management practices affect biodiversity and agricultural revenues. Finally, we tested whether it is possible to achieve the same total regional revenue without reducing biodiversity by improving local management practices. The 3 forest types had similar patterns in ES trade‐offs, although within mixed forest patterns differed. Biodiversity appeared to be more sensitive to land‐use change than crop revenues. Certain crops yielded up to 10 times higher values in some sites. Enhanced crop productivity may increase revenues without reducing biodiversity. Our results showed that to enhance human well‐being without further conversion of AF, maximizing crop productivity is needed . Increasing efficiency of management outcomes by maintaining higher biodiversity and increasing provisioning services depends on knowledge of forest type, the comparative advantage of planting crops in the best places, and preserving species in a balanced manner across forests.  相似文献   

5.
The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple mathematical model consisting of four variables, viz., nutrient concentration, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP), non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), and toxin concentration. Limitation in the concentration of the extracellular nutrient has been incorporated as an environmental stress condition for the plankton population, and the liberation of toxic chemicals has been described by a monotonic function of extracellular nutrient. The model is analyzed and simulated to reproduce the experimental findings of Graneli and Johansson [Graneli, E., Johansson, N., 2003. Increase in the production of allelopathic Prymnesium parvum cells grown under N- or P-deficient conditions. Harmful Algae 2, 135–145]. The robustness of the numerical experiments are tested by a formal parameter sensitivity analysis. As the first theoretical model consistent with the experiment of Graneli and Johansson (2003), our results demonstrate that, when nutrient-deficient conditions are favorable for the TPP population to release toxic chemicals, the TPP species control the bloom of other phytoplankton species which are non-toxic. Consistent with the observations made by Graneli and Johansson (2003), our model overcomes the limitation of not incorporating the effect of nutrient-limited toxic production in several other models developed on plankton dynamics.  相似文献   

8.
Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.  相似文献   

9.
《Ecological modelling》2005,181(4):567-580
The validity of the modifications in the source code of EPIC for simulation of crop development in semiarid conditions, described in de Barros et al. [de Barros, I., Williams, J.R., Gaiser, T. Modeling soil nutrient limitations to crop production in semiarid NE of Brazil with a modified EPIC version. I – Changes in the source code of the model. Ecol. Modell., submitted for publication] was tested against the results of 3 years, field experiment with nutrient omission using intercropping between maize and cowpea. The plant biomass production, grain yield, N, P, and K uptake by both crops were measured during the period of 1998–2000 and compared with simulated values. Reasonably good agreement and accuracy was obtained between the measured and simulated values for all evaluated parameters.Slight overestimation of grain yield by the simulations was attributed to high rates of floral abortion caused by dry spells during the flowering periods of 1998 and 1999, since this factor is not considered in the model yet. Improvements of the accuracy of the model may also be obtained by more comprehensive understanding of soil resource use by component plants in mixed cropping systems. Therefore, it is necessary to generate more knowledge about the partitioning of the resources by the crops before being incorporated into modeling approaches.The model was sensitive to climate variations and changes in soil chemical properties due to the application of fertilizers and/or lime under the tropical semiarid conditions of the NE of Brazil. Once calibrated and validated for different crops and soil types of this region, the model will be appropriate as tool for regional planning.  相似文献   

10.
低碳氮比(C/N)废水处理是含氮废水处理中的难题之一.本实验在C/N为4:1和2:1(COD和NH4+-N浓度分别为400 mg·L-1和100 mg·L-1,400 mg·L-1和200 mg·L-1)条件下,考察好氧颗粒污泥系统对低碳氮比废水的处理效果、长期运行稳定性,研究C/N对好氧颗粒微生物结构变化的影响.研究结果表明,在C/N为4:1的废水中接种活性污泥培养好氧颗粒污泥,形成的颗粒沉降性能良好,MLSS为4.94 g·L-1,SVI30为40 mL·g-1,COD去除率90%以上,氨氮去除率接近100%.降低碳氮比,即C/N为2:1后,好氧颗粒的物理及硝化性能无明显变化,MLSS为11.38 g·L-1,SVI30/SVI5维持在1左右,COD去除率大于85%,氨氮去除率98%.碳氮比降低使颗粒微生物多样性减少,其中陶厄氏菌受影响较小,而硝化功能菌出现更替:噬氢菌、食酸菌、里德拜特氏菌消失,鞘氨醇单胞菌、束缚杆菌等成为优势菌种.实验表明,该低碳氮比条件下好氧颗粒污泥系统能够稳定运行,且具有优良的处理性能.  相似文献   

11.
A model for the growth in GNP (gross national product) and population has been set up. On the basis of the present data it was found that the growth of a population is a function of GNP, and that GNP seems to follow a logistic growth.  相似文献   

12.
矿粮复合区土壤-作物系统重金属污染风险性评价   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
为分析矿区污染农田农作物生产的生态安全性,以焦作市中马村矿区的典型农田为例,对矿区农田土壤及植物中Zn、Cr、Cd、Cu和Pb等重金属的质量分数进行了测定,并对重金属污染风险进行了评价。结果表明,根据重金属的单项污染指数,在矿井水污灌农田(F1样地)土壤中Zn和Cd的质量分数达到中度污染水平,Cr的质量分数达到轻微污染水平,Cu和Pb元素质量分数未达到污染水平。在煤矸石污染农田(F2样地)土壤中Zn、Cr和Cd的质量分数达到轻度污染水平,Cu和Pb元素质量分数未达到污染水平。在矿区公路侧农田(F3样地)土壤中各元素质量分数均未达到污染水平。采用潜在生态风险指数法对土壤重金属污染的生态风险进行评价,F1和F2样地综合生态风险指数分别为239.60和178.42,达到中等水平,F3样地土壤达到轻微生态风险水平。采用单项污染指数和综合污染指数法对小麦(Triticumaestivum)籽粒中重金属风险进行评价,在F1和F2样地中,小麦籽粒中Cu质量分数均未达到污染水平,Pb、Cd和Cr质量分数均达到重度污染水平。Zn质量分数在Fl样地中达到轻度污染水平,在F2样地中达到中度污染水平。在F3样地中,小麦籽粒中Cd和Cu质量分数未达到污染水平,Zn质量分数达到轻度污染水平,Pb、Cr质量分数达到重度污染水平。从综合污染指数评价来看,F1、F2和F33个样地小麦籽粒中重金属污染综合指数均达到重度污染水平。评价结果对科学治理矿区污染土壤,确保矿区农田生态安全、粮食生产安全具有重要意义。  相似文献   

13.
温带阔叶红松林中不同树种和倒木对土壤性质的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
罗献宝  张颖清  徐浩  郑俊强 《生态环境》2011,20(12):1841-1845
以长白山温带阔叶红松林为研究对象,通过野外采集土壤样品,综合研究老龄树及倒木对周边表层土壤性质的影响。研究结果显示,在本研究样地条件下,不同树种周边的表层土壤性质存在显著性差异,红松(Pinus koraiensis)周边土壤中水溶性有机碳WSOC的质量分数和特征吸光系数SUVA254值都高于紫椴(乃砌amurensis)和水曲柳(Fraxinus mandshurica),但是土壤水溶性总氮WSTN和交换性无机氮的质量分数却是红松低于紫椴和水曲柳。对倒木影响的森林表层土壤性质的研究结果显示,倒木下方森林表层土壤中WSOC、WSTN以及交换性矿质氮的质量分数都明显地高于林间土壤,说明在小尺度空间区域内,倒木可能是森林表层土壤活性碳、氮库的重要输入源。此外,本研究还利用主成分分析探讨了受树种影响的森林表层土壤不同性质之间的关联性,并对树种和倒木影响周边土壤性质的可能性机制进行分析。  相似文献   

14.
《Ecological modelling》2005,187(1):27-39
The sensitivity of the distributed hydrological SWAT model to the pre-processing of soil and land use data was tested for modelling rainfall-runoff processes in the Thyle catchment in Belgium. To analyse this sensitivity, 32 different soil and land use parameterisation scheme were generated and evaluated. The soil input data sources were a generalised soil association map at a scale of 1:500,000, a detailed soil map at a scale of 1:25,000 and the soil profile analytical database AARDEWERK. These soil data were combined with a detailed and a generalised land use map. The results suggest that the SWAT model is extremely sensitive to the quality of the soil and land use data and the adopted pre-processing procedures of the geographically distributed data. The resolution and fragmentation of the original map objects are significantly affected by the internal aggregation procedures of the SWAT model. The catchment size threshold value (CSTV) is thereby a key parameter controlling the internal aggregation procedure in the model. It is shown that a parabolic function characterises the relationship between the CSTV and the hydrological modelling performance of the uncalibrated model, suggesting that optimal uncalibrated modelling results are not obtained when the CSTV is minimised. The hydrological response of the SWAT model to the calculated soil properties is significant. Therefore preference should be given to the calculation of the derived hydrologic soil properties prior to averaging of the profile data. Finally some general guidelines are suggested for parameterising soil and land use in the SWAT model application.  相似文献   

15.
Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.  相似文献   

16.
This work aims at discussing some concepts pertaining to the theory and practice of environmental modelling in view of the results of several model validation exercises performed by the group “Model validation for radionuclide transport in the system watershed-river and in estuaries” of project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) supported by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The analyses here performed concern models applied to real scenarios of environmental contamination. In particular, the reasons for the uncertainty of the models and the EBUA (empirically based uncertainty analysis) methodology are discussed. The foundations of multi-model approach in environmental modelling are presented and motivated. An application of EBUA to the results of a multi-model exercise concerning three models aimed at predicting the wash-off of radionuclide deposits from the Pripyat floodplain (Ukraine) was described. Multi-model approach is, definitely, a tool for uncertainty analysis. EBUA offers the opportunity of an evaluation of the uncertainty levels of predictions in multi-model applications.  相似文献   

17.
王静  郭治兴 《生态环境》2003,12(3):309-312
要建立土壤信息系统,数据是其根本。多年来有大量以纸类为媒介的土壤空间数据地图,通过数字化能很容易地将它们转化成土壤信息系统的空间数据。文章就土壤资源建库的地图数字化过程中,仿射变换和相似变换模型在数字化结果坐标校正、地图配准时的应用进行探讨;提出了在GIS软件环境下,选择适当的变换模型对数字化结果实现坐标变换的方法。  相似文献   

18.
Gully erosion represents an important soil degradation process in rangelands. In order to take preventive or control measures and to reduce its environmental damages and economical costs it is useful to localize the points in the landscape where gullying takes place and to determine the importance of the different factors involved. The study is carried out in Extremadura, southwest Spain. The main objectives of this work are: (a) comparing two nonparametric schemes to model the potential distribution of gullies, (b) evaluating the importance of the different factors involved in gullying processes, (c) analyzing the role of prevalence in the success of the model and finally, (d) implementing and mapping the results with the help of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Two methods were used to model the response of a dependent variable (gullying) from a set of independent variables: Classification And Regression Trees (CART) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Three different datasets were used; the first one for constructing the model (training dataset) and the others for validating the model (external datasets). These datasets are formed by a target variable (presence or absence of gullies) and a set of independent variables. The dependent variable was obtained by mapping the locations of gullies with the help of a GPS and high resolution aerial ortophotographs. A set of 32 independent variables reflecting topography, lithology, soil type, climate, land use and vegetation cover of each area were used. The performance of the models was evaluated using a non-dependent threshold method: the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed a better performance of MARS for predicting gullying with areas under the ROC curve of 0.98 and 0.97 for the validation datasets, while CART presented values of 0.96 and 0.66.  相似文献   

19.
Caplat P  Nathan R  Buckley YM 《Ecology》2012,93(2):368-377
Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.  相似文献   

20.
Recent studies have revealed the importance of self-consistency in evolutionary models, particularly in the context of male–female interactions. This has been largely ignored in models of the ancestral divergence of the sexes, i.e., the evolution of anisogamy. Here, we model the evolution of anisogamy in a Fisher-consistent context, explicitly taking into account the number of interacting individuals in a typical reproductive group. We reveal an interaction between the number of adult individuals in the local mating group and the selection pressures responsible for the divergence of the sexes. The same underlying model can produce anisogamy in two different ways. Gamete competition can lead to anisogamy when it is relatively easy for gametes to find each other, but when this is more difficult and gamete competition is absent, gamete limitation can provide another route for anisogamy to evolve. In line with earlier models, organismal complexity favors anisogamy. We argue that the early contributions of Kalmus and Scudo, largely dismissed as group selectionist, are valid under certain conditions. Linking their work with the contributions of Parker helps to explain why precisely males keep producing more sperm than can ever lead to offspring: sperm could evolve to provision zygotes but this brings little profit for the effort required, because sperm would have to be equipped with provisioning ability before it is known which sperm will make it to the fertilization stage. This insight creates a logical link between paternal care under uncertain paternity (where again investment is selected against when some investment never brings about genetic benefits) and gamete size evolution.  相似文献   

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