Addressing emerging risks using carbon capture and storage as an example

The European iNTeg-Risk project is a large-scale integrated project aimed at improving the management of emerging risks related to new technologies in European industry. The project aims to build a new management paradigm for emerging risks as a set of principles supported by a common language, agreed tools and methods, and key performance indicators, all integrated into a single framework. It is using a number of Emerging Risk Representative Applications (ERRAs), or case studies, to inform the development of the framework; one of which concerns the carbon capture and storage (CCS) process.This paper describes the iNTeg-Risk CCS ERRA. Relevant hazards and properties of carbon dioxide are described and the emerging risks from CCS are discussed. Three new tools have been developed or trialled within the ERRA. These are: the DyPASI methodology for taking account of atypical (not usually identified) events during hazard identification; a methodology for including the time dimension in a risk assessment; and life-cycle approaches for risk management and communication. For CCS, the risk assessment needs to include both short-term potential accidents from capture, transport or injection, as well as very long-term risks from storage. Knowledge gaps which are generic to emerging risks are also identified.     

A novel approach based on non-parametric resampling with interval analysis for large engineering project risks

The issue of risk assessment has been always the matter of debate in large engineering projects (LEPs). The assessment is an indispensable means for the projects to accomplish their objectives. It is firmly accepted that LEPs are particularly subject to more potential risks than other business activities because of their complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. These characteristics are often conducive to small sample sizes of the gathered risk data in practice. Consequently, traditional statistical techniques cannot contribute significantly to analyze the risk data. The non-parametric resampling technique, namely bootstrap, has been used subsequently to solve numerous complicated problems and evaluate the accuracy of a parameter estimator in situations where commonly used techniques are not valid. It is also more natural, applicable and simple to estimate the risk data in an interval form under decision-making process by considering the concept of safety by professional experts in LEPs. Hence, in this paper, a new approach based on bootstrap technique with the interval analysis is presented in the context of the project risk assessment. The proposed approach not only plays an important role in reducing risk data and saving time but also is more economical. A real case study is conducted to illustrate the applicability of the approach. Finally, the comparison results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms the traditional technique in terms of the accuracy and efficiency.     

北京市危险化学品企业安全生产风险评估分级研究

为对北京市危化品企业基本情况的全面掌握,开展了危险化学品企业安全生产风险评估分级研究,借鉴国外经验和国内有关科研成果,提出了固有风险和动态风险相结合的危化品安全生产风险评估方法。固有风险为企业的基本风险水平,主要由危险化学品物质量、工艺水平、安全监控和周边环境决定,为共性指标;动态风险,反映企业安全生产管理绩效的水平,主要包括安全基础管理和现场管理,为个性指标,不同企业类型,评估动态风险指标有差异。从大量数据中抽取了最能反应企业安全生产状态的指标因素,通过专家组打分法和层次分析法确定评价因素的权重,该评估方法具有较强的实用性和可操作性,是本质安全和安全绩效的创新结合,为企业安全生产评估分级提供了新思路。通过分级,按照"风险优先"原则,政府部门实行差别监管,降低安全监管成本,促进危险化学品安全生产工作向规范化、科学化转变。同时,研制了危化品企业安全生产风险分级系统,为建立北京市危化品企业风险分级数据库奠定了基础。     

Test case based risk predictions using artificial neural network

INTRODUCTION: The traditional fuzzy-rule-based risk assessment technique has been applied in many industries due to the capability of combining different parameters to obtain an overall risk. However, a drawback occurs as the technique is applied in circumstances where there are multiple parameters to be evaluated that are described by multiple linguistic terms. METHOD: In this study, a risk prediction model incorporating fuzzy set theory and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) capable of resolving the problem encountered is proposed. An algorithm capable of converting the risk-related parameters and the overall risk level from the fuzzy property to the crisp-valued attribute is also developed. Its application is demonstrated by a test case evaluating the navigational safety within port areas. RESULTS: It is concluded that a risk predicting ANN model is capable of generating reliable results as long as the training data takes into account any potential circumstance that may be met. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This paper provides safety assessment practitioners with a novel and flexible framework of modelling risks using a fuzzy-rule-base technique. It is especially applicable in circumstances where there are multiple parameters to be considered. The proposed framework also enables the port industry to manage navigational safety in a rational manner.     

工程系统一体化安全风险模型研究

借鉴功能模拟原理,利用目标树-成功树-主逻辑图(GTST-MLD)框架,提出了一个一体化安全风险模型。该模型对关联于工程系统安全特性的目标、功能、结构、行为等因素予以综合,提供了从多层次研究解决安全问题的模型基础,克服了基于事件树/故障树模型的概率风险评估等传统方法而分别对系统结构、行为、事件进行研究的问题,支持实现在更高的系统功能层面上对系统安全性的分析研究。通过研究该模型在安全风险评估、事故因果关联分析、潜在交互作用鉴别中的应用,表明研究成果为解决复杂工程系统安全问题提供了新的分析手段。     

A semi-quantitative assessment of occupational risks using bow-tie representation

This work proposes a semi-quantitative risk assessment methodology, which was applied and tested in the Ship Building Industry. It covers a wide range of risks related to occupational accidents in a shipbuilding yard environment, more specifically at Arsenal do Alfeite, a large shipyard in Portugal. The initial qualitative analysis focuses on the bow-tie diagram technique but it also integrates concepts and classifications schemes defined by the Eurostat within the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) Project. The structure of the diagram enables the identification of the relevant accident’s causal pathways and their consequences at the same time as it identifies the existing or needed safety barriers. In what concerns the semi-quantitative assessment, the accident risk level and acceptance criteria were established through a scoring system, using national data on accident statistics for the sub-sector: Ship Building & Repairing (code NACE 35.1). The statistical data was supplied by GEP (the Office of Strategy & Planning of the Portuguese Ministry of Labour & Social Solidarity). The authors present and discuss a specific case study, in the shipyard’s technological area of surface treatment and protection, to demonstrate the method’s applicability and usefulness.     

Appraisal of a new risk assessment model for SME

The identification, assessment and reduction of the risks is among of the most important issues of the safety at work. This paper’s goal is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a new risk assessment method proposed by the authors and presented in the past (Fera and Macchiaroli, 2009). In general, one can deal with risk assessment using different methods: quantitative, qualitative or a mix; however, the typical models proposed in the literature are difficult to implement in SMEs. The method proposed in this paper is a mixed one whose effectiveness is demonstrated through an application study carried out in different industrial systems, like a steel industry or a logistic services provider.     

危险品道路运输风险评价与优化选线的研究进展

危险品道路运输的风险评价与优化选线是对其进行安全管理与科学化决策的基础和重要依据,也是减少危险品运输事故概率与降低运输沿线影响人员风险的重要措施.通过对国内外危险品道路运输风险评价与优化选线研究以及相关技术与软件的发展状况进行详细评述,总结了常用的风险评价模型、选线标准以及优化选线方法,并给出了一些国家的个人风险和单位运输距离(通常为1 km)社会风险的可接受标准.最后,对我国的危险品道路运输安全管理提出了对策与建议.     

风险管理在城市地铁工程中的应用初探

地铁工程作为一项大型工程项目,存在着大量的不确定性风险因素。这些不确定性风险因素加大了地铁施工技术的难度,严重地影响着地铁工程建设目标的实现。笔者从风险因素辨识、风险分析和评估、风险响应3个方面详细分析了一般大型工程项目风险管理的研究现状;探讨了地铁工程风险的定义、风险管理的定义及其内涵;指出城市地铁建设进行风险评估和管理是非常必要的。     

陕京二线输气管道风险预评价

采用EST法对建设中的陕京二线输气管道进行了风险评价,得到了管道的高风险区段.通过对评价结果的分析,得出了造成各管段风险值较高的原因,并提出了相应控制措施.     

What safety models and principles can be adapted and used in security science?

Engineering risk management is comprised of managing operational safety risks on the one hand and managing physical security risks on the other. Although some basic management principles are obviously the same for both safety and security, some important conceptual and calculation differences exist, as is explained in this paper. For instance, safety risk is usually calculated based on the scenarios’ consequences and likelihoods, while security needs to be determined by the assessment of vulnerability, the likelihood of attack and potential consequences. Nonetheless, there are also many similarities. Conceptual models, metaphors and principles that have been elaborated in the safety domain during the past century, many of them based on major accidents and their investigation, can easily be translated to the security domain. In the present study, we will explain how physical security should be seen in relation to safety, and what models and principles, derived from safety science, can be employed to manage the security aspects associated with physical threats.     

风险、风险源、危险源的关系探讨

为了更好地管理风险,从安全风险角度,对风险、风险源、危险源等术语的关系进行探讨,并阐述风险源和风险产生原因对风险辨识和管理的重要性,以及危险源辨识对安全风险管控的必要性;在此基础上,讨论了安全风险管理问题。研究得出:危险源是安全风险源;安全风险管理要注重开展全面的风险辨识,加强安全风险源的治理,对突发事件产生原因进行管控,进而实施有效的安全风险防控措施。     

消费品风险评价的伤害情景与三维矩阵集成方法

通过对比分析美国、欧盟及中国的消费品质量安全风险监管和评估现状,得出我国在消费品法律及标准、伤害监测与事故信息平台及公开、消费品风险辨识及评价程序等方面有待深化研究;基于2012年欧美等国家、地区对我国出口消费品的通报数据的统计分析,识别了主要消费品的隐患及危害类型,给出了伤害情景与三维矩阵集成的消费品风险评价方法,为消费品安全评价提供了新方法、新途径,并以婴儿车为例,进行了应用分析,检验了该方法的可行性。     

中小学校安全风险管理系统的提出与应用

为了提升校园的安全程度完善其管理系统,本文在阅读相关文献的基础上,结合校园应急管理以及风险辨识和评估在校园安全中的重要性,将工业安全管理技术应用于校园安全管理中,提出中小学安全风险管理系统,该系统的实施和应用,可以在一定程度上减少校园安全事故的发生,对校园的安全管理,具有实际应用价值和重要的现实意义。     

川藏铁路桥隧施工安全风险评价

通过评估川藏铁路工程建设的施工风险等级,为高质量推进川藏铁路工程建设提供理论支撑。剖析了国内外学者关于风险评估研究的理论与方法,针对川藏铁路施工建设中的5座特大桥梁工程和9座超长隧道工程,分析了桥梁隧道建设工程的特征,构建了川藏铁路桥梁工程的17个安全风险评价指标体系和隧道工程的20个安全风险评价指标体系,通过建立基于模糊综合评价法的风险评估模型完成了对川藏铁路重点桥梁和隧道工程的风险评价,最后构造BP神经网络模型对风险评估结果进行验证,以川藏铁路部分重点桥梁工程评分数据和部分重点隧道工程评分数据为训练数据,以剩余评分结果为验证数据,预测桥梁和隧道工程的风险等级。结果表明:采用BP神经网络预测桥梁隧道工程安全风险等级的准确率高达98. 82%,BP神经网络对于该工程施工安全风险评价具有适用性;川藏铁路重点桥隧工程项目有50%处于较危险以上,只有20%的工程处于安全级别。     

Inherently safer design in offshore oil and gas projects

Like all hazardous installations, inherently safer design (ISD) is one of the key tools in offshore oil and gas projects to minimize risks in offshore facilities. As the life cycle of offshore facilities is relatively short compared with onshore counterparts and there are many projects running every year, the potential is high for raising inherent safety standards and lowering safety risks throughout the offshore industry as old facilities are phased out. This paper gives an overview of offshore facilities and examples of implementation of ISD. Good examples of ISD are numerous. Industry guidance on ISD implementation abound. Yet, the systematic implementation of it in the industry is patchy. There are many reasons for factors which impede the effective, efficient and consistent implementation of ISD in projects. This paper describes some of them and proposes solution to address them. They include (a) the effective integration of ISD into hazard management systems with appropriate language to engage all disciplines in projects, (b) the phasing of resources to enable the project to capture ISD measures which are only available during early phases, (c) application of appropriate ISD goals and ISD performance metrics at various stages and (d) the appropriate use of quantified risk assessment to support ISD.     

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

运用危险源控制方法改进职业健康安全管理的有效性

危险源辨识和风险评价是GB/T28001职业健康安全管理的基本方法,通过危险源辨识找出与职业健康安全有关的管理点（危险源）,评价出职业健康安全管理需要管理的重点（中度和高度风险）,制定适宜的方法,即制定目标指标方案、运行控制或应急预案加以控制和改善,体现职业健康安全管理的基本原则和思路。只有正确运用危险源辨识和风险评价的方法,才能做到合理策划危险源的控制方法,集中力量抓主要矛盾解决主要问题,兼顾次要矛盾和一般问题的管理;根据不同危险源的具体情况选择适宜合理的方法,既保证危险源的有效控制,又保证采用的任何危险源控制方法和措施与危险源产生后果的严重性和伴随的风险相适应,尽量避免危险源控制的盲目性和不经济,达到追求最佳职业健康安全绩效的目的,提高整体和系统管理的有效性。     

The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part II. Accident location analysis and airport risk assessment case studies

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.The second part of the paper presents the analysis of accident locations, including the plotting of Complementary Cumulative Probability Distributions for the relevant accident types. These were then used in conjunction with the improved accident frequency models to produce Complementary Cumulative Frequency Distributions that could be used to assess risks related to specific runways and determine Airport Safety Area (ASA) dimensions necessary to meet a quantitative target level of safety. The approach not only takes into account risk factors previously ignored by standard risk assessments but also considers the operational and traffic characteristics of the runway concerned. The use of the improved risk assessment technique and risk management strategy using ASAs was also demonstrated in two case studies based on New York LaGuardia Airport and Boca Raton Airport in Florida.     

基于三角模糊理论的尾矿库风险评价研究

根据尾矿库的特点和我国现行的尾矿库安全生产监督管理法律法规及标准规范的要求,构建了尾矿库风险评价指标体系。综合考虑评价指标对风险发生可能性及后果严重程度的不同影响来确定指标权重,同时考虑到权重确定和指标赋值中的模糊性和不确定性等问题,选用三角模糊理论建立了尾矿库风险评价模型,并以本溪某尾矿库为例进行说明。理论分析和实例计算表明,该方法对尾矿库风险评价有很好的适用性。