What humanlike errors do autonomous vehicles need to avoid to maximize safety?

Introduction: The final failure in the causal chain of events in 94% of crashes is driver error. It is assumed most crashes will be prevented by autonomous vehicles (AVs), but AVs will still crash if they make the same mistakes as humans. By identifying the distribution of crashes among various contributing factors, this study provides guidance on the roles AVs must perform and errors they must avoid to realize their safety potential. Method: Using the NMVCCS database, five categories of driver-related contributing factors were assigned to crashes: (1) sensing/perceiving (i.e., not recognizing hazards); (2) predicting (i.e., misjudging behavior of other vehicles); (3) planning/deciding (i.e., poor decision-making behind traffic law adherence and defensive driving); (4) execution/performance (i.e., inappropriate vehicle control); and (5) incapacitation (i.e., alcohol-impaired or otherwise incapacitated driver). Assuming AVs would have superior perception and be incapable of incapacitation, we determined how many crashes would persist beyond those with incapacitation or exclusively sensing/perceiving factors. Results: Thirty-three percent of crashes involved only sensing/perceiving factors (23%) or incapacitation (10%). If they could be prevented by AVs, 67% could remain, many with planning/deciding (41%), execution/performance (23%), and predicting (17%) factors. Crashes with planning/deciding factors often involved speeding (23%) or illegal maneuvers (15%). Conclusions: Errors in choosing evasive maneuvers, predicting actions of other road users, and traveling at speeds suitable for conditions will persist if designers program AVs to make errors similar to those of today’s human drivers. Planning/deciding factors, such as speeding and disobeying traffic laws, reflect driver preferences, and AV design philosophies will need to be consistent with safety rather than occupant preferences when they conflict. Practical applications: This study illustrates the complex roles AVs will have to perform and the risks arising from occupant preferences that AV designers and regulators must address if AVs will realize their potential to eliminate most crashes.     

Are parents ready to use autonomous vehicles to transport children? Concerns and safety features

Introduction: This study addressed a gap in the literature – the potential of using autonomous vehicles (AV) to enhance children’s mobility. Prior studies documented the perceived benefits and concerns about this prospect, but did not examine the features in AV and support mechanisms that are desired by potential users. Method: An on-line survey was used to collect public opinions within the United States. In the survey, willingness to use AVs for this use case was asked twice to assess if participants changed their mind after being asked about concerns related to this prospect and importance of car features. A combination of statistical and machine-learning methods were used to profile individuals with high versus low post-willingness and to identify variables that differentiated the two groups. Results: Results indicated that respondents who were lower on their post-willingness to use AVs to transport children were more concerned about how AVs would protect children, how someone could harm the children inside, and whether there would be someone at the destination. In addition, they were less in favor of technology, older in age, and rated car features such as having a designated adult waiting at destination, a camera, and a microphone as relatively required (as opposed to optional). These results highlight potential users’ needs and requirements as they think about AVs in the context of parent–children mobility practices. Practical Applications: Relevant stakeholders should develop deployment and implementation plans while taking into account ridership contexts and vulnerable road users who can benefit from enhanced mobility.     

Acute impairing effects of morphine related to driving: A systematic review of experimental studies to define blood morphine concentrations related to impairment in opioid-naïve subjects

Objective: The objective of this study was to look for dose– and concentration–effect relationships in experimental studies on single-dose administration of morphine on traffic-relevant behavioral tests by a systematic literature review and possibly to see whether a dose/concentration could be defined below which few or no tests would be affected.

Methods: Searches for corresponding literature were conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO, throughout March of 2016. The search strategy consisted of words colligated to cognitive and psychomotor functions of relevance to driving, in relation to morphine administration. The tests were arranged in main groups, and tests showing impairment were categorized by doses as well as calculated plasma concentrations.

Results: Fifteen studies were included in the review. Impairment after the administration of a single intravenously dose of morphine was found in some of the tests on reaction time, attention, and visual functions. No impairment was observed in tests on psychomotor skills and en-/decoding. Tests on reaction time appeared to be less sensitive to the morphine administration, whereas tests on visual functions and attention appeared to be the most sensitive to the morphine administration. Single-dose administration of morphine with dosages up to 5 mg appeared to cause very few effects on traffic-relevant performance tasks. At higher dosages, impairment was found on various tasks but with no clear dose–effect relationship. Plasma morphine concentrations less than 50 nmol/L are most probably accompanied by few effects on traffic-relevant performance tasks.

Conclusions: A plasma morphine concentration of 50 nmol/L (approximately 14.3 ng/mL) could represent an upper level, under which there is little accompanying road traffic risk. A single dose of 5 mg morphine IV and analgetic equivalence doses of fentanyl, hydromorphone, oxycodone, and oxymorphone are presented with the suggestion that few traffic-relevant effects will appear after such doses.     

When may road fatalities start to decrease?

Introduction

The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints.

Method

The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level.

Results

Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns.

Impact on industry

Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries.

Conclusions

Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven).     

Precision teaching to improve drivers’ lane maintenance

Introduction: This study investigates the effect of precision teaching signals on lane maintenance. Methods: In experiment 1, the control group drove a simulator with no signals. In experiment 2, drivers were presented with auditory signals depending on their position within or outside the lane. In experiment 3, visual signals were presented in addition to auditory signals to examine the effect of redundancy on drivers’ lane maintenance. Results: Results showed an improvement in lane maintenance in experiment 2. Cross-experiment analysis indicated this effect not to be the result of learning. Data from experiment 3 also showed that presenting redundant signals did not further reduce lane variability or help drivers maintain a more central position within the lane. Conclusions: Taken together, data suggest precision teaching be effective as an educational tool to improve lane maintenance. Practical Applications: Our study shows the potential for precision teaching to serve as a valuable tool in driver training.     

Rare event risk analysis – application to iceberg collision

To design an engineering system, testing in extreme conditions is at least recommended if not required. There are ambiguities about how to define an extreme state and how to consider it in the design of a system or its operation. The probability estimation of such an event is challenging due to data scarcity, especially in many engineering domains, e.g. offshore development. In this study, available techniques for analyzing the probability of extreme events are examined for their suitability in engineering applications, and a framework is proposed for rare event risk analysis. The framework is comprised of three phases. In the first phase, the outlier based extreme value theory is implemented to estimate the rare event probability. The maximum likelihood criterion is used to estimate the extreme distribution parameters. In the second phase, the rare event is considered as a heavy tail event, and the tail index is estimated through the Hill and the SmooHill estimator. In the third phase, The uncertainty analysis is conducted, and the risk is computed. The proposed methodology is tested for extreme iceberg risk assessment on large offshore structures in the Flemish Pass basin. For this specific case, the estimated design extreme iceberg speed was 4.31 km/h, with an occurrence probability of 3.61E-06.     

Are pilots at risk of accidents due to fatigue?

PROBLEM: There is concern in the aviation community that pilot schedules can lead to fatigue and increased chance of an aviation accident. Yet despite this concern, there is little empirical analysis showing the relationship between pilot schedules and commercial aviation accidents. This study attempts to demonstrate an empirical relationship between pilot schedules and aviation accidents. METHOD: Data for human factors-related accidents and pilot work patterns were identified. The distribution of pilot work schedule parameters for the accidents was compared to that for all pilots using a chi-square test to determine if the proportions of accidents and length of duty exposure were the same. If the distributions are the same, then one could infer that pilot human factor accidents are not affected by work schedule parameters. RESULTS: The proportion of accidents associated with pilots having longer duty periods is higher than the proportion of longer duty periods for all pilots. DISCUSSION: There is a discernible pattern of increased probability of an accident as duty time increases for commercial aircraft pilots in the United States. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The analysis suggests that establishing limits on duty time for commercial pilots would reduce risk. Such a rule is likely to be expensive and could substantially impact the commercial airlines. In return, there is likely to be a reduction in the risk of commercial aviation accidents due to pilot fatigue.     

Is career management related to employee development and performance?

The career management process involves career exploration, development of career goals, and use of career strategies to obtain career goals. The relationship between different aspects of the career management process and employee development behavior and performance was examined in this study. Employees provided information concerning their personal characteristics, career management strategies, their manager's support for career development, and willingness to participate in development activities. Managers provided ratings of each employee's job performance and developmental behavior. Position, manager's support for development, environmental exploration, and distance from career goal explained significant variance in employees' willingness to participate in development activities and developmental behavior. Career management was not significantly related to performance ratings. Research and practical implications of the study findings are discussed.     

When does adaptive performance lead to higher task performance?

Adaptive performance is a facet of performance that reflects acquiring enhanced competencies in response to change. Micro‐level researchers have assumed that adaptive performance is beneficial for task performance. Similarly, macro‐level researchers have suggested that organizations need to attend to, monitor, and respond to contingencies in their environments for adaptive performance to be beneficial for firm performance. Drawing from the attention‐based theory of the firm and resource theory, we suggest that perceptions of organizational politics and individual differences in conscientiousness constitute contingencies of the adaptive performance–task performance relationship. In a sample of 92 call center employees, we found that adaptive performance is positively associated with task performance but that conscientiousness and organizational politics jointly influence the adaptive performance–task performance relationship. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A safety counterculture challenge to a “safety climate”

This case study is about a small group of workmen caught in a common dilemma regarding work safety. They must work safely and maintain production within a pathological organization that does not meaningfully reward participation or communication. They do so as a group and socially construct danger, injury and safety for themselves. They constitute a functioning counterculture and challenge the safety climate contrived by managers. Although limited in scope, the study suggests that we can learn from the details of their interactions with their work environment, with one another, and with their managers.     

Antecedents of intention to help mitigate wildfire: Implications for campaigns promoting wildfire mitigation to the general public in the wildland–urban interface

The current investigation sought to examine the association between knowledge of the causes of wildfire in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and intentions on the part of members of the public to help mitigate wildfire. In doing so, antecedents from the theory of planned behavior were employed to enhance our understanding of the relationships among wildfire knowledge, attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to help mitigate wildfire in the WUI. Participants (N = 408) living in the WUI in Appalachian Ohio were sampled as a means of conducting formative research prior to developing messages promoting wildfire mitigation. Our results reveal that, among the variables in the theory of planned behavior, the only paths that consistently explain individual’s intention to help mitigate wildland fire in the WUI in protecting both homes and the environment are associations between knowledge about wildfire and perceived behavioral control and between perceived behavioral control and intention. Our findings are discussed with a focus on message design for wildland fire mitigation professionals and a focus on implications for the theory of planned behaviors for academics with interests in wildland fire and other environmental issues.     

How do organizational practices relate to perceived system safety effectiveness? Perceptions of safety climate and co-worker commitment to safety as workplace safety signals

Introduction: Integrating safety climate research with signaling theory, we propose that individual perceptions of safety climate signal the importance of safety in the organization. Specifically, we expect that three work-related organizational practices (training effectiveness, procedure effectiveness, and work pressure) relate to the broader risk control system in the workplace via individual perceptions of safety climate as a broad management signal. Further, we expect this broad management signal interacts with a local environmental signal (co-worker commitment to safety) to amplify or diminish perceived system safety effectiveness. Method: In a field study of oil and gas workers (N = 219; Study 1), we used mediation modeling to determine the relationships between work-related organizational practices, perceived safety climate, and perceived safety system effectiveness. In a field study of railway construction workers (N = 131; Study 2), we used moderated mediation modeling to explore the conditional role of co-worker commitment to safety. Results: We found that training effectiveness, procedure effectiveness, and work pressure predicted perceived system safety effectiveness indirectly via perceived safety climate (Studies 1 and 2) and that these indirect paths are influenced by co-worker commitment to safety (Study 2). Conclusions: Findings suggest that perceived safety climate is driven in part by work practices, and that perceived safety climate (from managers) and co-worker commitment to safety (from the local environment) interact to shape workplace safety system effectiveness. Practical applications: The insight that training, procedures, and work pressure are meaningful predictors of perceived safety climate as a signal suggests that organizations should be cognizant of the quality of work-related practices for safety. The insight we offer on the competing versus complimentary nature of managerial safety signals (perceived safety climate) and co-worker safety signals (co-worker commitment to safety) could also be used by safety personnel to develop safety interventions directed in both areas.     

Got milk? Workplace factors related to breastfeeding among working mothers

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that women breastfeed because of improved health outcomes for mothers and children. Because maternal employment during the first year of the child's life has been identified as a reason for breastfeeding cessation, we develop and test a role‐theory‐based framework to explain women's continuation of breastfeeding after return to work (Study 1) and report results of an exploratory study linking breastfeeding at work with job attitudes and well‐being (Study 2). Applying survival analysis to a longitudinal dataset gathered by the Centers for Disease Control (Study 1), we identify pregnant women's perceived employer support for breastfeeding as a predictor of women's breastfeeding goal intentions. Supervisors' negative workplace remarks about breastfeeding related to an eightfold increase of women's likelihood to discontinue exclusive breastfeeding and perceived support for breastfeeding after return to work predicted exclusive breastfeeding continuation. Results of Study 2 suggest that women who return to work and continue breastfeeding experience more family‐to‐work conflict and overload than women who do not reconcile work and breastfeeding. Further, results of Study 2 provide preliminary evidence suggesting that perceptions of supervisor and coworker support for breastfeeding relate positively to general perceptions of organizational support and negatively to depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Skin reactions to latex in dental professionals – first Croatian data

Purpose. To determine the prevalence of undesirable skin reactions to latex in dental professionals and students of the School of Dental Medicine in Zagreb, Croatia. Methods. Our research included 444 participants, of which 200 agreed to undergo a skin prick test (SPT). All participants answered a questionnaire in which we asked about incidence of skin lesions, duration of occupational exposure to latex, localization of skin lesions and symptoms. Statistical analysis of the questionnaire and test results was then carried out. Results. Of the total 444 participants surveyed, 249 (56.1%) reported lesions on their skin (professionals 64.8%, students 6.1–58.5%). From the questionnaire, 239 (96.0%) respondents reported lesions on the hands and fingers, mostly in the form of erythema (37.0%) and occasional dryness of skin (29.0%). Positive SPT results were found in 14 (7.0%) out of the 200 respondents who underwent the test. Conclusions. While a large number of subjects (56.1%) reported skin lesions when using latex products at their workplace, the SPT test was positive only in 7.0%. The results show that the prevalence of self-reported skin lesions was significantly related to the length of occupational exposure, with a substantial effect size (p?<?0.001; V?=?0.334).     

Analyzing motorists’ responses to temporary signage in highway work zones

For decades, the importance of highway work zone safety has increased considerably with the continual increase in the number of highway work zones present on highways for repairs and expansion. Rural work zones on two-lane highways are particularly hazardous and cause a significant safety concern due to the disruption of regular traffic flow. In this study, researchers determined motorists’ responses to warning signs in rural, two-lane highway work zones. The researchers divided vehicles into three classes (passenger car, truck, and semitrailer) and compared the mean change in speed of these classes based on three different sign setups: portable changeable message sign (PCMS) OFF, PCMS ON with the message of Slow Down, Drive Safely, and a temporary traffic sign (W20-1, “Road Work Ahead”). Field experiments were conducted on two two-lane work zones with flagger control. Statistical analyses were performed to determine whether there was a significant interaction between motorists’ responses and the sign setups. Data analysis results show that a visible PCMS, either turned on or off, was most effective in reducing truck speeds in rural, two-lane work zones. The temporary traffic sign (W20-1) was more effective in reducing the vehicle speeds of passenger car and semitrailer. Results of this research project will help traffic engineers to better design the two-lane work zone setup and take necessary safety countermeasures to prevent vehicle crashes.