Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions,climate change and limits to warming

This paper reviews scientific and gray literature addressing climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the western Canadian Arctic. The review is structured using a vulnerability framework, and 420 documents related directly or indirectly to climate change are analyzed to provide insights on the current state of knowledge on climate change vulnerability in the ISR as a basis for supporting future research and long-term adaptation planning in the region. The literature documents evidence of climate change in the ISR which is compromising food security and health status, limiting transportation access and travel routes to hunting grounds, and damaging municipal infrastructure. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions; however, many of the adaptations being undertaken are short term, ad-hoc, and reactive in nature. Limited long-term strategic planning for climate change is being undertaken. Current climate change risks are expected to continue in the future with further implications for communities but less is known about the adaptive capacity of communities. This review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and decision makers to understand the interactions between current and projected climate change and the factors which condition vulnerability and influence adaptation. Research gaps are identified, and recommendations for advancing adaptation planning are outlined.     

The role of ad hoc networks in supporting climate change adaptation: a case study from the Southeastern United States

To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.     

Collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in Canada: experimenting with adaptive co-management

The search for strategies to address ‘super wicked problems’ such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants’ networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies

Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. It is more so for the region which are ecologically fragile. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission. This will be made feasible only when there is a better understanding of the problem between the developed and developing world about the eminent danger arising out of climate change.     

The research-policy nexus in climate change adaptation: experience from the urban water sector in South East Queensland,Australia

Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration.     

Bringing it all together: researcher dialogue to improve synthesis in regional climate adaptation in South-East Queensland,Australia

The effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in one sector can be compromised or aided by policies developed in another sector. When the focus of adaptation is a single geographical region, this potential for interaction between sectoral policies is heightened due to spatial, political and functional proximities. This paper analyses interactions within three suites of climate adaptation options developed for Australia’s ‘South-East Queensland’ region relating to: (1) wetland migration, coastal infrastructure and planned retreat; (2) urban water security and energy demand; and (3) terrestrial biodiversity and agricultural viability. Using the concept of ‘institutional interplay’ to structure a process of dialogue amongst researchers, we identify a number of critical implementation requirements for successful regional-scale adaptation. There is a need for greater focus on neighbourhood or sub-regional scales of policy design and intervention, particularly for the coordination of adapted infrastructure and services to households. Policy-makers must also be more explicit in considering broader drivers of land-use change and economic adjustment likely to impact on proposed adaptations. In considering these issues, our paper also demonstrates a process for conducting cross-sectoral syntheses that can be employed in other regional-scale adaptation studies.     

Rural organizations and adaptation to climate change and variability in rural Kenya

Numerous studies have shown that collective action affects the type and efficiency of short- and long-term adaptation to climate change. This empirical study contributes to the body of the literature on collective action and adaptive capacity by demonstrating how organizations frame responses to climate variability and change in rural Kenya by promoting local rural institutions. By analyzing interviews, role-playing games, and household surveys, we ask how local rural organizations shape coping strategies to climate variability and how they may structure future adaptations to climate change. We also investigate what types of households participate in those organizations and how their participation may impact their vulnerability to climate change and variability. Our analysis shows that in places rendered especially vulnerable to climate change by arid climatic conditions, the disengagement of governmental services, and a limited access to income-generating activities, local rural organizations increase livelihood security. Those organizations reduce local vulnerabilities and enhance collective action. In contrast to common diversification and livelihood security strategies which rely on the access to urban or peri-urban structures, local rural institutions and organizations allow for rural and grassroots sustainable adaptation strategies. In that respect, they constitute a resilient and mostly untapped resource for visibly strengthening livelihood security and adaptive capacities in rural Kenya.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

Metaphors in Guardian Online and Mail Online Opinion-page Content on Climate Change: War,Religion, and Politics

In climate change-related media discourses metaphors are used to (re-)conceptualize climate change science as well as climate change mitigation/adaptation efforts. Using critical metaphor analysis, we study linguistic and conceptual metaphors in opinion-page content from the British online newspapers Guardian Online and Mail Online, while paying attention to the arguments they advance. We find that Guardian Online employed war metaphors to advance pro-climate change arguments. War metaphors were used to (1) communicate the urgency to act on climate change and (2) conceptualize climate change politics. Mail Online employed religion metaphors to furnish skeptic/contrarian arguments. Religion metaphors were used to (1) downplay the urgency to act on climate change and (2) conceptualize transitions from climate change belief to skepticism. These findings raise concerns about sustained policy gridlock and refute expectations about novelty in climate change-related media discourses (as both war and religion have a history of use).     

Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale

Understanding the impacts of climate change on viticulture is especially essential in those areas producing high-quality wines. In this work, we create an operational framework to investigate climate change impact on viticulture in the Tuscany region (central Italy) the viticulture industry of which relies on producing high-quality wines to compete in a global market. The framework includes (i) statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for the period 1975–2099 to a local scale; (ii) the use of downscaling outputs as driving variables in specific simulation models; (iii) the spatial interpolation of model outputs to feed an economic and (iv) a quality model. The results show that as a consequence of a progressive increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, (a) the area potentially suitable for grapevine cultivation increases; (b) the grapevine growth cycle becomes shorter; (c) the final yield is gradually reduced, particularly in those areas characterised by quality cultivation regulation; and d) the premium wine quality production areas shift towards higher elevations. The proposed framework revealed itself to be an effective tool for climate change impact assessment at a very local scale. Additionally, this approach may be easily extended to testing the effect of different adaptation strategies in terms of management practices (e.g. irrigation) and grape varieties (e.g. longer or shorter cycle, advanced or delayed bud burst).     

European winegrowers’ perceptions of climate change impact and options for adaptation

A questionnaire on the perception of climate change and the impact of climate change was distributed among winegrowers in France, Germany, and Italy. These countries are located in three macro-climatic regions that experienced different patterns of climatic change in the twentieth century—Atlantic, transition to Continental and Mediterranean. The majority of winegrowers perceived changing climatic conditions in the last few decades. The characterization of these changes is consistent with results obtained by the analysis of long-term trends in climatic records. The winegrowers noted impacts on harvestable quantities (mainly in Italy), must quality, and risks of pests and diseases. The majority of respondents (66%) indicated an impact on wine quality, which was perceived as quality improvement in 55% of the cases. Perceived impacts on pests and diseases were reported in 56% of the responses. A strong majority of this group (80%) also reported increasing threats. Perceived climatic change and its noticeable impacts has led to growing interest in adaptation options, combined with a need for more information, among winegrowers. Thus, the transfer of technical knowledge from scientific research to practice is necessary for adaptation. Plans for adaptation by a change of wine varieties were reported with substantially different results among the regions. A majority of German growers said they would consider changing varieties to adapt to warming temperatures, while only a minority of the Italian and French growers said they would consider such changes. However, readiness to adopt adaptation measures is correlated with the degree of changes already planned, independent of climatic change.     

Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna

The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures.     

Fishers’ perceptions of climate change,impacts on their livelihoods and adaptation strategies in environmental change hotspots: a case of Lake Wamala,Uganda

Fisheries resources support livelihoods of fishing communities but are threatened by over-exploitation, habitat degradation, pollution, invasive species and climate change. Unlike the other threats, climate change has received limited consideration and reducing its risks requires appropriate adaptation strategies. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to generate knowledge on fishers’ perceptions of climate change, changes in climate variables and their impacts on livelihoods, adaptation strategies, constraints to adaptation and required interventions to promote adaptation strategies that would enable fishers to build resilience to sustain their livelihoods. We found that fishers were aware of changes in climate conditions manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing remained the main livelihood activity. However, the dominance of fishes had changed from Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) to the African catfish (Clarias gariepinus Burchell). Floods and droughts were associated with damage to gears, boats, landing sites and changes in fish catches and sizes, income from fishing and fish consumption. The fishers adapted by increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gear among other things. Some innovative fishers diversified to high-value crops and livestock. This increased their income beyond what was solely earned from fishing which provided an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Livelihood diversification was enhanced by use of communications technology, membership of social groups, increasing fishing days and fishing experience. Adaptation was, however, constrained by limited credit, awareness and access to land, which require interventions such as improving access to credit, irrigation facilities, appropriate planting materials and awareness raising. We identified adaptation strategies, which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to the influence of climate change and sustain their livelihoods.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).     

Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe

There is now overwhelming evidence of climate change and variability impacts in Africa, among them a reduction in agricultural production. This is a cause for concern given that 70 % of the continent’s population derives its livelihoods directly from rain-fed agriculture. There is need for adaptation strategies at all levels from the national to the local level to mitigate these adverse impacts from climate change. It is important to take advantage of and strengthen already existing household and community strategies. This study used both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to explore the role that livelihood dynamics play in local-level decision-making for adaptation to everyday vulnerability. Risk is considered to extend beyond climate to non-climatic stressors, and the notion of climate change as the major shock among many others is downgraded to one that is secondary to other shocks that even pose more danger to household and community livelihoods. The natural capital remains the basis upon which all the other capitals depend as drivers of choice for adaptation practices. A reorientation of capitals and associated activities is inevitable to deal with everyday vulnerability given that livelihood capitals play a key role in adaptation. Choice of household response strategies to shocks is not entirely intrinsic, but rather integral to a context where other players such as the extension operate to influence adaptation choices. This then highlights the need for embeddedness and context in understanding adaptation and livelihood changes.     

Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Sekyedumase district in Ghana

Climate change is projected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on Ghana, particularly on rural farmers whose livelihoods depend largely on rainfall. The extent of these impacts depends largely on awareness and the level of adaptation in response to climate change. This study examines the perception of farmers in Sekyedumase district of Ashanti region of Ghana on climate change and analyzes farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change. A hundred and eighty farming households were interviewed in February and October 2009. Results showed that about 92% of the respondents perceived increases in temperature, while 87% perceived decrease in precipitation over the years. The major adaptation strategies identified included crop diversification, planting of short season varieties, change in crops species, and a shift in planting date, among others. Results of logit regression analysis indicated that the access to extension services, credit, soil fertility, and land tenure are the four most important factors that influence farmers’ perception and adaptation. The main barriers included lack of information on adaptation strategies, poverty, and lack of information about weather. Even though the communities are highly aware of climate issues, only 44.4% of farmers have adjusted their farming practices to reduce the impacts of increasing temperature and 40.6% to decreasing precipitation, giving lack of funds as the main barrier to implementing adaptation measure. Implications for policymaking will be to make credit facilities more flexible, to invest in training more extension officers and more education on climate change and adaptation strategies.     

The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.