Disaggregated energy consumption,environment, and economic growth nexus of emerging South and East Asian Countries: An ARDL approach

This study examines the nexus between disaggregated energy consumption (EC), CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in emerging South and East Asian countries over the period of 1994 to 2019. The long-run equilibrium relationship is determined by using the “Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model” and the “Generalized least square (GLS) technique.” The panel causality test developed by “Dumitrescu and Hurlin, 2012” determines the direction of causation between variables. Disaggregated EC and CO₂ emissions positively affect economic growth in the research. The PMG estimate also validates the GLS findings, which produce the same results as the PMG estimation. To check the robustness, we also use FMOLS and DOLS estimators. The results confirm the feedback hypothesis for South and East Asian nations regarding energy uses, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. In contrast, there is unidirectional causality between industrial development and economic growth. These findings will help governments in South and East Asia craft effective energy policy regulations for their financial institutions.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

Sustainable energy development in rural Asia

In considering the prospects for sustainable energy, most studies have focused on developments in the urban and industrial areas. However, in Asia where the bulk of the population continues to live in rural areas, it is essential to monitor the changes occurring in the countryside. Therefore, this paper examines the developments taking place in rural energy in Asia in general and focuses specifically on the situation in China. It is observed that a total reorganization of the energy picture is occurring in rural China with regard to both conventional and non-conventional energy, as a result of the huge market for power and fuel created by rapid economic growth. This has led to new distribution networks for electricity (with the Chinese Government following the example of the US Rural Electrification Administration), fossil fuels and renewable energy systems. The growing affluence of the population coupled with rapid industrialization is producing far-reaching changes in the transportation structure as well as in the household energy structure. The situation in China is seen to be comparable to that in other East and Southeast Asian countries, particularly those which combine a rapidly growing industrial sector with a large rural population engaged in agriculture, such as the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia.     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

Urban household energy use patterns in Nigeria

Urban household energy use accounts for a large proportion of commercial fuel consumption in Nigeria. As population and urbanization increase, consumption is expected to rise rapidly in the future. It is therefore important to have information on the utilization pattern and factors driving consumption of urban household energy. Such information will be useful within the national energy planning framework for deriving strategies for a more rational energy utilization and increased reliability of energy supply to the urban household. In this paper, the major results from an urban household survey are presented. In the survey, data on various factors including energy consumption by income group, fuel preferences, sources and reliability of energy supply, and expenditure on energy are collected and analysed. Major conclusions are drawn on the possibilities for fuel supply/demand balance, and strategies for efficient energy utilization in the urban household .     

Natural gas pricing policies in Southeast Asia

The very dynamic economies of Southeast Asia have recently been experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand. Parallel to this development, there has been an increase in the utilization of indigenous natural gas resources. This article reviews gas-pricing policies in the region, which partly explain the rise in gas utilization. Although diverse, energy pricing policies in Southeast Asia address the common objective of enhancing domestic gas production and utilization.
The article concludes that a more rational gas-pricing policy framework is emerging in the region. In global terms, gas pricing in the region tends to converge in a market-related framework, despite the many different pricing objectives of individual countries, and the predominance of non-economic pricing objectives in certain countries (especially gas-rich nations). Specifically, governments have been flexible enough to follow global trends and initiate changes in contractual agreements (pricing and profit-sharing), giving oil companies more favourable terms, and encouraging continued private investment in gas development. At the same time, promotional pricing has also been used to increase utilization of gas, through set prices and adjusted taxes achieving a lower price level compared to substitute fuels.
For an efficient gas-pricing mechanism, refinements in the pricing framework should be undertaken, as demand for gas approaches existing and/or forecast production capacities.     

Analysis of the role of waste minimisation clubs in reducing industrial water demand in the UK

As a result of the UK Government's waste policy, which increasingly encourages sustainable development, and the realisation that water in the UK cannot be treated as an unlimited resource, there is growing interest in reducing the demand for water by industry. A series of industrial waste minimisation clubs have been set up within the country. This paper identifies the effectiveness of these clubs in reducing the demand for water. An overview of some of the clubs show how there is a major discrepancy between potential and implemented water savings, whilst a more detailed analysis of three specific examples show how water demand and cost to the company can be reduced, with the project paying for itself within around 1 year. It appears that companies are able to reduce water consumption by approximately 30%. If this level of saving was taken up by the entire industrial sector in England and Wales, water consumption could be reduced by approximately 1500 Ml/day. This reduction would be more significant in regions of lower rainfall, for example East Anglia and Southeast England.     

中国消费中长期发展趋势及能源环境效应研究

随着消费在经济发展中的比重逐步增加,其引致的能源消耗和污染物排放越来越不容忽视。本研究基于投入产出模型,分别测算了居民消费引致的直接和间接能源消耗与污染物排放,然后参考发达国家相应发展阶段的居民消费结构,展望未来居民消费发展趋势,进一步测算未来居民消费的能源与环境效应。未来我国消费占GDP的比重将稳步上升,到2050年逐步提高到70%以上;居民消费结构将显著调整,食品占比显著下降,仅为15%,文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他服务占比显著上升;居民消费引致的一次能源需求到2050年将达到30.4亿吨标煤,占全社会能源需求的52.4%;化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量将分别达到2497万t、261万t、1722万t、1157万t,占全社会污染物排放产生量的60%以上。研究表明,进一步强化居民消费产品绿色低碳发展、优化居民消费结构,将成为未来推进我国高质量发展和污染防治的重要领域。     

The outlook for oil

Between now and 2000, the demand for oil is expected to be moderate and the supply abundant. Economic growth is almost twice as slow as in 1973 and requires 25–30% less energy per unit of GNP. The demand for oil is therefore growing at a rate of two to three times slower. Meeting the demand for oil between now and 2000 is within the capability of the oil-producing countries, in many cases with modest additional investment. Gas and coal will be very cost competitive in relation to oil and will serve as a break on future explosive price increases.     

Energy Consumption in the Turkish Industrial Sector

Turkey's primary energy resources seem limited as indigenous energy production meets nearly 31 % of the total primary energy demand. But the growth of Turkey's industry gives rise to a substantial increase in energy demand. Final energy consumption grew from 52.6 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in the year 1990 to 78.4 Mtoe in the year 2002. Industrial demand accounts for about 41.6 % of the final energy demand in Turkey. Basic metal industries, non-metallic material products and chemical and petroleum products have the highest energy consumption in industrial sector. In this work, industrial energy consumption and energy consumption of different indsutrial subsectors in Turkey are investigated.     

Road transport fuel demand in the LDCs

Over the last decades, oil consumption in the developing countries hus been increasing rapidly. Road transport has accounted for most of this increase in demand. It is the thesis of this paper that future growth in oil demand in developing countries will occur mainly in the road transport sector and that this growth will be surprisingly strong. Estimated income and price elasticities for several developing countries are presented and forecasts for oil consumption in road transport in the developing countries up to 2010 are given.     

Acid rain in Asia

Acid rain has been an issue of great concern in North America and Europe during the past several decades. However, due to the passage of a number of recent regulations, most notably the Clean Air Act in the United States in 1990, there is an emerging perception that the problem in these Western nations is nearing solution. The situation in the developing world, particularly in Asia, is much bleaker. Given the policies of many Asian nations to achieve levels of development comparable with the industrialized world—which necessitate a significant expansion of energy consumption (most derived from indigenous coal reserves)—the potential for the formation of, and damage from, acid deposition in these developing countries is very high. This article delineates and assesses the emissions patterns, meteorology, physical geology, and biological and cultural resources present in various Asian nations. Based on this analysis and the risk factors to acidification, it is concluded that a number of areas in Asia are currently vulnerable to acid rain. These regions include Japan, North and South Korea, southern China, and the mountainous portions of Southeast Asia and southwestern India. Furthermore, with accelerated development (and its attendant increase in energy use and production of emissions of acid deposition precursors) in many nations of Asia, it is likely that other regions will also be affected by acidification in the near future. Based on the results of this overview, it is clear that acid deposition has significant potential to impact the Asian region. However, empirical evidence is urgently needed to confirm this and to provide early warning of increases in the magnitude and spread of acid deposition and its effects throughout this part of the world.     

Identifying the major players behind increasing global carbon dioxide emissions: a decomposition analysis

The paper using data on 114 countries during 1992–2004 identifies the major perpetrators of escalating global emissions. Using the LMDI decomposition technique, we examine the contribution of the major factors in changing the level of emissions. The effect of GDP on emission is found to be substantially more than that of population. However, the income effect shows high fluctuation over time, while the population effect has been roughly constant. The upper middle-income countries, particularly of Europe and Central Asia, despite high economic growth have reduced their emissions substantially, while in the countries of North America, East Asia Pacific and South Asia increase in income have been significantly accompanied by increase in emission. Apart from few low emitting countries, almost all others have been successful in increasing emission efficiency, but their energy efficiencies have not been remarkable. Although emission efficiency has been more instrumental in curtailing emission, in some cases the path of change in emission follows that of change in energy intensity. Thus, both energy and emission intensity have crucial roles in determining the level of emissions. It may be suggested that emphasis should be given on policies oriented towards sufficient counteractive energy and emission efficiencies before embarking on a path towards economic growth.     

Can Desalination and Clean Energy Combined Help to Alleviate Global Water Scarcity?

The major present hindrance in using desalination to help alleviate global water scarcity is the cost of this technology, which, in turn is due to energy cost involved. This study examines historical trends in desalination and breaks up the cost of desalination into energy based and nonenergy based. It then develops the learning curves (relationship between cumulative production and market price) for desalination. Assuming that the photovoltaic (PV) technology will be the dominant form of energy used in the desalination process, the existing PV learning curve and desalination learning curve are combined to explore the viability of large‐scale adoption of desalination in the future. The world has been divided into seven regions and it is assumed that water demand from desalinated water will be met only within the 100‐km coastal belt. It is shown that, in most of the regions, other than sub‐Saharan Africa, Central America, and South Asia (where water tariffs are low), the desalination (without considering energy) becomes viable by 2040. For PV technology, less than 1 million MW per annum growth is required till 2050 to make it affordable. Globally, desalination with renewable energy can become a viable option to replace domestic and industrial water demand in the 100‐km coastal belt by 2050.     

WOODFUEL - A TIME FOR RE-ASSESSMENT

Official statistics and surveys show that woodfuel is the dominant end-use of forest products especially in developing countries. This paper examines the end-use pattern and per capita consumption figures for selected developing countries. In terms of total energy requirements woodfuel, a renewable resource, is the third most important fuel after oil and coal, but may be the primary fuel in terms of number of actual consumers. The future consumption pattern is estimated for the developing and developed countries and it is anticipated that total woodfuel consumption may increase by about 2 per cent per year at least until the year 2000. The supply position shows that while present consumption of all forest products is more or less in balance with the increment of the growing stock, in certain areas the forest capital is being depleted to meet demand. Total demand is likely to double by the turn of the century. Therefore, plantations, especially of fuelwood, will have to be established if the growing stock is not to be depleted and if an energy crisis in developing countries is to be averted.     

From the erosion of crude oil prices to reorganization of the oil industry

Comparison of data on world energy consumption for 1986, 1987 and 1988 indicates that the consumption of all forms of energy increased during the period, but the demand for oil increased at a lesser rate than that of other energy sources. Although the pattern varies between countries, the overall picture is one of increased use of natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydropower as an energy source. Part of the reason for the low growth in oil demand is the oil conservation measures put in place when oil was much more expensive, but may partly be due to the scepticism of many people about the future movement of oil prices. The likely continuation of a low growth market for oil has led some oil exporting countries to move downstream in an effort to secure a dependable market for their oil and oil products.     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.