Range contraction and loss of genetic variation of the Pyrenean endemic newt <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calotriton asper</Emphasis> due to climate change

Many studies have identified climate warming to be among the most important threats to biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on species with low genetic diversity, ectothermic physiology, small ranges, low effective populations sizes, specific habitat requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Despite an ever-increasing number of studies reporting climate change-induced range shifts, few of these have incorporated species’ specific dispersal constraints into their models. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on genetic variation within populations and species have rarely been assessed, while this is a promising direction for future research. Here we explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution and genetic variation of the endemic Pyrenean newt Calotriton asper over the period 2020–2080. We use species distribution modelling in combination with high-resolution gridded climate data while subsequently applying four different dispersal scenarios. We furthermore use published data on genetic variation of both mtDNA and AFLP loci to test whether populations with high genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity and expected heterozygosity) or evolutionary history (unique haplotypes and K clusters) have an increased extinction risk from climate change. The present study indicates that climate change drastically reduces the potential distribution range of C. asper and reveals dispersal possibilities to be minimal under the most realistic dispersal scenarios. Despite the major loss in suitable climate, the models highlight relatively large stable areas throughout the species core distribution area indicating persistence of populations over time. The results, however, show a major loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary history. This highlights the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic variation in climate change impact studies. Likewise, the integration of species’ specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models is an important step to fully explore the effects of climate change on species potential distributions.     

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

Drought Stress in Four Subalpine Species: Gas Exchange Response and Survivorship

An assessment of adaptability of saplings of four evergreen species (Picea abies Karst., Pinus mugo Turra, Pinus peuce Grisb. and Pinus heldreichii H. Christ.), native for Bulgarian treeline zone, was made on the basis of leaf gas exchange and survivability in artificially induced drought stress. The established low sensitivity of gas exchange to summer drought and the highest mortality of P. abies may be regarded as an evidence for a narrow zone of tolerance. P. peuce and P. heldreichii have low survivorship under drought conditions, regardless of the variable effect of soil moisture on the gas exchange parameters. The better survivability and significant reduction of gas exchange in response to soil water deficit of P. mugo probably will give him an advantage in future adaptation to climate change and in competition with other subalpine species. We conclude that the expected trends in climate change will most likely lead to a further narrowing of the ecological and physiological comfortable zone for two investigated endemic species.     

Pleistocene Refugia for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calluna vulgaris</Emphasis> (L.) Hull Populations in the European Atlantic Region

The distribution of nine chloroplast DNA haplotypes in four insular North-Atlantic and four European coastal Atlantic populations of Calluna vulgaris in the glacial zone of the range has been analyzed in comparison with that in six marginal southern populations in the nonglacial zone of the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. As a result, two hypothetical Pleistocene refugia (HPRs) for this C. vulgaris population group have been revealed, one in the Cévennes mountain range and the other in the Southern Alps (Trento). Judging from the 1–F_ST value, it has been found that the group of populations in the glacial Atlantic zone and adjacent European coastal Atlantic region is genetically similar to the HPR in the Cévennes at a highly significant level (p ≥ 0.999) and less similar to the HPR in Trento; however, it differs significantly from other Mediterranean and Atlantic populations. It has been concluded that the most probable hypothetical Pleistocene refugium for the recent C. vulgaris populations of the northeastern Atlantic and European coastal Atlantic regions was in the west of the Mediterranean, in the Cévennes, while the additional refugium was in the Southern Alps. Possible directions of the postglacial dispersal and recolonization of habitats by C. vulgaris populations from the western Mediterranean to the northeast of the Atlantic and to Scandinavia have been revealed.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.     

Pollination ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eomecon chionantha</Emphasis> Hance (Papaveraceae), an endemic species in China

Eomecon chionantha Hance, the only species in the genus Eomecon, is an angiosperm species endemic to China. Here we investigated the pollination syndrome, pollinator generalization of E. chionantha. Our results showed that the individual flower longevity of E. chionantha was 3–5 days. The flowering phenology of E. chionantha can be divided into five phases. We found significant differences in the pollination efficiency of the different insects visiting E. chionantha with bees and flies being the most efficient pollinators. This, in addition to floral morphology and phenology, suggests that E. chionantha is generalized on bees and flies and possesses an outcrossing, partially self-compatible and pollinator-dependent breeding system.     

Ecological and faunistic characteristics of the leech fauna in the Bukhtarma Reservoir,Eastern Kazakhstan

The taxonomic diversity of the Hirudinea fauna and its dependence on the ecological conditions in the Bukhtarma Reservoir (Eastern Kazakhstan) have been studied. The morphological analysis has shown that these leeches belong to two orders and three families: Rhynchobdellida (families Glossiphoniidae and Piscicolidae) and Arhynchobdellida (family Erpobdellidae). On the whole, eight leech species from five genera (Alboglossiphonia, Helobdella, Theromyzon, Piscicola, and Erpobdella) have been identified. Among them, there are three glossiphoniid species (A. heteroclite, H. stagnalis, and T. tessulatum), two species of piscicolids (Piscicola geometra and Piscicola sp.), and three species of predatory leeches (E. octoculata, E. vilnensis, and Erpobdella sp.). Possible effects of hydrochemical parameters of the aquatic environment on the species diversity have been analyzed. Correlation has been revealed between the abundance of species and the physical and chemical characteristics of the environment.     

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

Interspecific interactions of amphipods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus lacustris</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gmelinoides fasciatus</Emphasis>

Experimental studies of interactions between two amphipod species (Gmelinoides fasciatus and Gammarus lacustris) showed that predation is the basic mechanism accounting for their mutual exclusion in nature. Mortality from predation among similar-sized specimens of both species at an equal abundance ratio was similar (24–25% in G. lacustris and 27–30% in G. fasciatus). The displacement of G. lacustris by G. fasciatus was observed when the latter was dominant. Adult G. fasciatus and G. lacustris successfully preyed on juveniles of their competitors and did not differ significantly in daily food consumption as a percentage of body weight: 6–24% at a fresh body weight of 18–24 mg in both species. The potential for rapid population growth under new conditions contributed to the success of the invasive Baikal species G. fasciatus in displacing G. lacustris from many water bodies of Russia.     

Most Interesting Findings from Remnants of Chironomid (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) Larvae in Layers of a 200-Year-Old Stratum of Lake Oron Bottom Sediments

The remnants of chironomid larvae from layers of the 10-cm-thick bottom sediment in Lake Oron have been studied. Six taxons unknown in the current chironomid fauna of the lake have been identified: Abiskomyia rivalis, Corynoneura arctica-type, Mesocricotopus thienemanni, Metriocnemus eurynotus-type, Nanocladius rectinervis-type, and Robackia pilicauda. The most probable reasons for the disappearance of these species from the Oron fauna, which are related to environmental changes caused by global climate changes, are considered.     

Genetic Differentiation of the Ural Endemic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gypsophila uralensis</Emphasis> (Caryophyllaceae) in Relict Fragments of Its Range in Northwestern European Russia

Molecular genetic methods (AFLP and ITS1–5.8S–ITS2 rDNA analysis) have been used to study the level and structure of genetic diversity in relict populations of the Ural endemic Gypsophila uralensis Less. in the northeast of European Russia. Intraspecific genetic differentiation is most clearly manifested between G. uralensis Less. subsp. pinegensis (Perf.) Kamelin locally endemic to the north of Europe (Arkhangelsk oblast, locus classicus) the population of G. uralensis Less. subsp. uralensis on limestone outcrops along the Shchugor River, the Subpolar Urals. The cluster of Timan populations (on limestone outcrops along the Svetlaya, Pizhma, and Myla rivers) is autonomous and genetically heterogeneous. Genetic distances between model G. uralensis s.l. populations are correlated with geographic distances. The size and abundance of relict populations show a descending gradient in the forest zone, and parameters of their genetic diversity [1] and unbiased expected heterozygosity have been found to decrease along this gradient.     

How Prey Density and Distribution Can Affect Predator Habitat Usage Pattern: a Case Study on Sand Cat (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Felis margarita</Emphasis>, Locke 1858) from Iran

Prey-predator relationships can affect habitat selection of the animals greatly. In the recent investigation we tried to test how rodents can affect nocturnal sand cat habitat usage pattern. Microhabitat affinities of sand cat and its den site selection were investigated in Sistan and Baluchistan Province from early 2013 to late 2015 in Semsor area. The data acquired from 29 presence plots of individuals were compared by paired non-used plots; the results indicated that the presence of Haloxylon ammodendron and relative density of rodents mainly affected Sand cat microhabitat selection. We also found that the species den site selection was mainly influenced by the presence of tall shrubs such as Haloxylon ammodendron and Tamarix sp. We concluded that the habitat selection pattern of sand cat in the study area could be significantly influenced by rodents’ microhabitat selection; however, such relationship may not be true in larger spatial scales like species home range.     

Phenotypic variation of the rare species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cephalaria uralensis</Emphasis> (Murr.) Schrad. ex Roem. et Schult. in the Republic of Bashkortostan,the Southern Urals

Variation in morphometric parameters of the poorly studied rare species Cephalaria uralensis (Murr.) Schrad. ex Roem. et Schult. has been studied at the northern boundary of its range, in the Southern Urals (Bashkortostan). The species in the region grows in four types of steppe communities of the class Festuco-Brometea. Variation in the majority of parameters is within the species reaction norm. The most variable parameters are the numbers of vegetative and generative shoots and the number of inflorescences per shoot. As shown by discriminant analysis, all 16 cenopopulations included in the study significantly differ from each other (Wilks’ λ = 0.21), with most of them being morphologically and structurally uniform. The state of local C. uralensis appears to be satisfactory, and this species is not at serious risk for extinction in the territory of Bashkortostan.     

Ecological preferences of forest voles

Basic climatic parameters (annual average air temperature and annual amount of precipitation) over 12–25 years have been analyzed with regard to their values corresponding to different levels of abundance in three species of forest voles: Clethrionomys glareolus (in 11 areas of the species range), Cl. rutilus, and Cl. rufocanus (in three areas each). The results show that the abundance of all these species correlates significantly with fluctuations of annual average temperature, with the correlation being negative in Cl. glareolus and Cl. rufocanus but positive in Cl. rutilus. In addition, the abundance of Cl. rufocanus shows a significant correlation with annual precipitation. Voles inhabiting different geographic regions may reach high abundance under different conditions. As for the species range as a whole, however, Cl. glareolus is more ecologically flexible than the other two voles. This species is also more warmth- and moisture-loving, while Cl. rufocanus is more cold-loving and xerophilous, with Cl. rutilus occupying an intermediate position between them. Clethrionomys rutilus is most temperature-dependent and stenothermic among them, whereas Cl. glareolus is indifferent to the factors studied.     

Developmental Stability of the Skull in the Pygmy Wood Mouse (Mammalia,Rodentia) along Altitudinal Gradient in the Western and Central Caucasus

To assess the stability of individual development of the pygmy wood mouse (Apodemus uralensis) in mountain areas with different ecogeographic conditions, the levels of fluctuating asymmetry in a series of skull phenes have been evaluated in ten samples from the Western and Central Caucasus. Attention has been focused on the influence of change in environmental conditions along the elevational gradient and the impact of some anthropogenic factors. An increase in the index of fluctuation asymmetry FA_nm has been revealed in samples from populations exposed to pollutants and, in the absence of pollution, from areas where the average annual temperature drops below 5°С (mid-mountain regions). Instability of skull development observed in A. uralensis from the foothills of the Western Caucasus may be a consequence of competitive relationships with the Black Sea field mouse A. ponticus, a sympatric species that inhabits the same biotopes as does A. uralensis but numerically prevails over it.     

Habitat suitability for the Caucasian frog <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rana macrocnemis</Emphasis> Boulenger, 1885 (Amphibia:Anura: Ranidae)

Modeling the distribution patterns of species is a generally efficient tool to assess their ecological characteristics. In this study, we compared ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and maximum entropy (Maxent) techniques to predict the most suitable distribution range of Rana macrocnemis. The Maxent model predicted potential suitable habitats for R. macrocnemis with high success rates (AUC Training data = 0.877 ± 0.039). According to the map constructed, three important variables had high contribution to species presence: temperature (50.4%), land cover (24.6%) and elevation (14.4%) variables. The ENFA results were relatively similar to Maxent jackknife analysis. The results implied that R. macrocnemis prefers grassland and needle leaf deciduous forest with high elevations, and low temperature.     

A global change of specialization and generalization in pollination networks from the plant perspective

A view of pollination systems is that they tend to generalization. Here we show that patterns exist in pollination systems that suggest otherwise. We examine how specialization may be affected by latitude, species richness and plant life-forms in 33 plant-pollinator interaction networks. Connectance increases with latitude (P = 0.040), but specialization at the community level significantly declines with increasing latitude, with the strongest evidence in the Northern Hemisphere (P = 0.001). The relationship between specialization level and connectance is negative (P < 0.001). While plants are more specialized in tropical areas and are more generalized at higher latitudes, specialization level also increases with plant richness (P < 0.001), total species richness (P = 0.041) and network size (P = 0.009). Specialization level of life forms of 1129 species differ substantially (P < 0.001), with herbs showing the highest specialization (74%), and tree species the lowest (62%).     

The use of biomass production and allometric models to estimate carbon sequestration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jatropha curcas</Emphasis> L. plantations in western Burkina Faso

The topic of carbon sequestration in plants has received much attention recently due to concerns about global climate change, which is being exacerbated by deforestation. In the early days of the global bioenergy boom, the private sector and non-government organizations enthusiastically promoted the planting of Jatropha curcas L. as a key candidate shrub species for the production of bioenergy in West Africa. This study investigates the aboveground biomass production and carbon sequestration potential of J. curcas, which is already widely cultivated for the production of oil seeds, biodiesel and biokerosene. The specific objective is to use a destructive method to develop allometric prediction equations of the aboveground biomass production of J. curcas plantations. 38 J. curcas shrubs were harvested and weighed in order to estimate biomass production. These data were used to develop allometric equations for the estimation of wood, leaf and total aboveground biomass production. The best-fit models found for estimating shrub component biomass and total aboveground biomass production were of the power form. All of the regression equations relating the prediction of leaf biomass, wood biomass and total aboveground biomass with J. curcas diameter at 20 cm above the ground (D) were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and also presented the highest goodness of fit (high R ²). The aboveground biomass carbon content was estimated using the ash method. Carbon content in leaves and wood was, respectively, 48 and 54 %. The current established allometric equations can be helpful to provide a rapid estimation of the aboveground biomass and C stock for J. curcas biofuel projects in semi-arid conditions.     

Effect of temperature and precipitation on linear increment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sphagnum fuscum</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S. magellanicum</Emphasis> in Western Siberia

The linear increment of Sphagnum fuscum and S. magellanicum in ombrotrophic mires of Western Siberia has been measured during two years over a transect about 2500 km long extending from forest–steppe to forest–tundra. Along the latitudinal gradient, the increment of both species has proved to be correlated with annual average air temperature and, in S. magellanicum, also with annual precipitation. The determinants of their growth differ between the southern, central, and northern parts of the study region. At the regional level, the annual and summer precipitation plays a more important role than the average air temperature. The increment of S. fuscum in the southern part is positively correlated with the amount of precipitation and negatively correlated with summer temperature, whereas the situation in the central part is inverse. In S. magellanicum, the linear increment is directly dependent on the annual average temperature and annual and summer precipitation in the south and on the annual and summer precipitation in the north of Western Siberia. The dynamics of linear growth of both species in bog pine forests during the growing season are similar: its rate is the highest in June, when the linear increment of S. fuscum and S. magellanicum amounts to 60 and 85% of the annual total, respectively.