Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Drought Stress in Four Subalpine Species: Gas Exchange Response and Survivorship

An assessment of adaptability of saplings of four evergreen species (Picea abies Karst., Pinus mugo Turra, Pinus peuce Grisb. and Pinus heldreichii H. Christ.), native for Bulgarian treeline zone, was made on the basis of leaf gas exchange and survivability in artificially induced drought stress. The established low sensitivity of gas exchange to summer drought and the highest mortality of P. abies may be regarded as an evidence for a narrow zone of tolerance. P. peuce and P. heldreichii have low survivorship under drought conditions, regardless of the variable effect of soil moisture on the gas exchange parameters. The better survivability and significant reduction of gas exchange in response to soil water deficit of P. mugo probably will give him an advantage in future adaptation to climate change and in competition with other subalpine species. We conclude that the expected trends in climate change will most likely lead to a further narrowing of the ecological and physiological comfortable zone for two investigated endemic species.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.     

Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.     

Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

Most Interesting Findings from Remnants of Chironomid (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) Larvae in Layers of a 200-Year-Old Stratum of Lake Oron Bottom Sediments

The remnants of chironomid larvae from layers of the 10-cm-thick bottom sediment in Lake Oron have been studied. Six taxons unknown in the current chironomid fauna of the lake have been identified: Abiskomyia rivalis, Corynoneura arctica-type, Mesocricotopus thienemanni, Metriocnemus eurynotus-type, Nanocladius rectinervis-type, and Robackia pilicauda. The most probable reasons for the disappearance of these species from the Oron fauna, which are related to environmental changes caused by global climate changes, are considered.     

Knowing the past to forecast the future: a case study on a relictual,endemic species of the SW Alps, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Berardia subacaulis</Emphasis>

Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.     

Variation in the Composition of Secondary Metabolites in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Flavocetraria</Emphasis> Lichens from Western Siberia

The composition and contents of secondary metabolites in Flavocetraria lichens from Eastern Siberia were analyzed using herbarium specimens. Based on the composition of identified metabolites, three F. cucullata chemotypes and two F. nivalis chemotypes were distinguished. Distinct geographic differentiation between the F. cucullata chemotypes was revealed, probably reflecting their adaptation to environmental conditions. The content of usnic acid in F. cucullata thalli was found to correlate with the latitude of growing region. This may be regarded as evidence for a protective role of this metabolite in lichens growing at high latitudes and exposed to excess solar irradiation during the polar day.     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany

Using the focusing event framework, a comprehensive analysis of private households’ and businesses’ preparedness was undertaken in the aftermath of the 2002 and 2006 flood events on the Elbe River in Germany. In August 2002, preparedness of households (n = 235) and businesses (n = 103) was low: 30% of the households and 54% of the businesses took no precautionary measures before the flood event. Many undertaken emergency measures were ineffective, since only 26% of all households knew how to react when the flood warning came, and only 9% of businesses had an emergency plan in place. Due to this extreme flood, double-loop learning occurred in many households and businesses, so that many did implement precautionary measures. The distribution of adopted precautionary measures for households fits well to Preisendörfer’s low-cost hypothesis, but does not apply for businesses. Only 10% of the households (n = 112), but still 29% of the businesses (n = 41) were unprepared before the flood in 2006. Significant improvement in flood preparedness activities is still necessary. Particularly for businesses, regulatory programs and programs encouraging proactive behaviour should be implemented. The focusing event framework proofed to be a useful tool for a differentiated analysis of the responses to and learning due to a disaster also in the commercial and private sector.     

Overcoming barriers to sustainability by combining conceptual,visual, and networking systems

Sustainability challenges rarely align with the conventional boundaries of our disciplines, institutions and means of communication. To address these challenges amid real-world complexity, we need to think holistically and collaborate across disciplines. In this paper, we synthesise three themes: (1) more integrated conceptual frameworks; (2) digital visual communication which provides fluid expression of complex ideas and perceptions; and (3) online networks which can empower sustainability initiatives and communicate them across social and institutional barriers at a global scale. Each of these tools can help to overcome persistent barriers to sustainability. When used together, they provide a strategic basis for the design of digital collaboration platforms for addressing sustainability challenges. Using design thinking, we developed a Synergy Map which identifies relationships among a number of barriers to sustainability and conceptual and digital tools which help to address them. The Map identifies the potential for synthesising these tools into effective digital artefacts. We provide several examples and identify characteristics of particular value for overcoming barriers to sustainability. Combining new theoretical developments in sustainability sciences with recent advances in communication and networking technologies offers substantial potential for advancing sustainability on multiple fronts.     

The use of biomass production and allometric models to estimate carbon sequestration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jatropha curcas</Emphasis> L. plantations in western Burkina Faso

The topic of carbon sequestration in plants has received much attention recently due to concerns about global climate change, which is being exacerbated by deforestation. In the early days of the global bioenergy boom, the private sector and non-government organizations enthusiastically promoted the planting of Jatropha curcas L. as a key candidate shrub species for the production of bioenergy in West Africa. This study investigates the aboveground biomass production and carbon sequestration potential of J. curcas, which is already widely cultivated for the production of oil seeds, biodiesel and biokerosene. The specific objective is to use a destructive method to develop allometric prediction equations of the aboveground biomass production of J. curcas plantations. 38 J. curcas shrubs were harvested and weighed in order to estimate biomass production. These data were used to develop allometric equations for the estimation of wood, leaf and total aboveground biomass production. The best-fit models found for estimating shrub component biomass and total aboveground biomass production were of the power form. All of the regression equations relating the prediction of leaf biomass, wood biomass and total aboveground biomass with J. curcas diameter at 20 cm above the ground (D) were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and also presented the highest goodness of fit (high R ²). The aboveground biomass carbon content was estimated using the ash method. Carbon content in leaves and wood was, respectively, 48 and 54 %. The current established allometric equations can be helpful to provide a rapid estimation of the aboveground biomass and C stock for J. curcas biofuel projects in semi-arid conditions.     

Diversity and Nitrogen-Fixing Activity of Phototrophic Mycetobionts of Xylotrophic Fungi

It is shown that the basidiocarps of many wood-decomposing fungi are inhabited by taxonomically and biomorphologically various eukaryotic (Charophyta, Chlorophyta, and Ochrophyta) and prokaryotic (Cyanophyta/Cyanobacteria) algae. They represent widespread eurybiont species and do not include any specialized mycetobionts. The communities formed by them have a host preference and green algae are their basic and obligate component, while other organisms are facultative components. Basidiocarps in which mycetobionts include heterocytic cyanoprokaryotes (Anabaena sp., Calothrix parietina, Hassallia byssoidea, Nostoc commune, N. punctiforme, Nostoc sp., and Scytonema ocellatum) are capable of molecular nitrogen fixation. Its activity is 0.044–0.903 mg of C₂H₄/m²/h in the basidiocarps of Bjerkandera adusta, Cerrena unicolor, Gloeophyllum sepiarium, and Trametes ochracea and 0.001–0.008 mg of C₂H₄/m²/h in the basidiocarps of Onnia leporina, Phellinus chrysoloma, Ph. tremulae, and Trametes pubescens. Basidiocarps without algae and those inhabited only by eukaryotic algae have no nitrogenase activity.     

Ecological and faunistic characteristics of the leech fauna in the Bukhtarma Reservoir,Eastern Kazakhstan

The taxonomic diversity of the Hirudinea fauna and its dependence on the ecological conditions in the Bukhtarma Reservoir (Eastern Kazakhstan) have been studied. The morphological analysis has shown that these leeches belong to two orders and three families: Rhynchobdellida (families Glossiphoniidae and Piscicolidae) and Arhynchobdellida (family Erpobdellidae). On the whole, eight leech species from five genera (Alboglossiphonia, Helobdella, Theromyzon, Piscicola, and Erpobdella) have been identified. Among them, there are three glossiphoniid species (A. heteroclite, H. stagnalis, and T. tessulatum), two species of piscicolids (Piscicola geometra and Piscicola sp.), and three species of predatory leeches (E. octoculata, E. vilnensis, and Erpobdella sp.). Possible effects of hydrochemical parameters of the aquatic environment on the species diversity have been analyzed. Correlation has been revealed between the abundance of species and the physical and chemical characteristics of the environment.     

Interspecific interactions of amphipods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus lacustris</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gmelinoides fasciatus</Emphasis>

Experimental studies of interactions between two amphipod species (Gmelinoides fasciatus and Gammarus lacustris) showed that predation is the basic mechanism accounting for their mutual exclusion in nature. Mortality from predation among similar-sized specimens of both species at an equal abundance ratio was similar (24–25% in G. lacustris and 27–30% in G. fasciatus). The displacement of G. lacustris by G. fasciatus was observed when the latter was dominant. Adult G. fasciatus and G. lacustris successfully preyed on juveniles of their competitors and did not differ significantly in daily food consumption as a percentage of body weight: 6–24% at a fresh body weight of 18–24 mg in both species. The potential for rapid population growth under new conditions contributed to the success of the invasive Baikal species G. fasciatus in displacing G. lacustris from many water bodies of Russia.     

Range contraction and loss of genetic variation of the Pyrenean endemic newt <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calotriton asper</Emphasis> due to climate change

Many studies have identified climate warming to be among the most important threats to biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on species with low genetic diversity, ectothermic physiology, small ranges, low effective populations sizes, specific habitat requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Despite an ever-increasing number of studies reporting climate change-induced range shifts, few of these have incorporated species’ specific dispersal constraints into their models. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on genetic variation within populations and species have rarely been assessed, while this is a promising direction for future research. Here we explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution and genetic variation of the endemic Pyrenean newt Calotriton asper over the period 2020–2080. We use species distribution modelling in combination with high-resolution gridded climate data while subsequently applying four different dispersal scenarios. We furthermore use published data on genetic variation of both mtDNA and AFLP loci to test whether populations with high genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity and expected heterozygosity) or evolutionary history (unique haplotypes and K clusters) have an increased extinction risk from climate change. The present study indicates that climate change drastically reduces the potential distribution range of C. asper and reveals dispersal possibilities to be minimal under the most realistic dispersal scenarios. Despite the major loss in suitable climate, the models highlight relatively large stable areas throughout the species core distribution area indicating persistence of populations over time. The results, however, show a major loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary history. This highlights the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic variation in climate change impact studies. Likewise, the integration of species’ specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models is an important step to fully explore the effects of climate change on species potential distributions.     

Pollination ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eomecon chionantha</Emphasis> Hance (Papaveraceae), an endemic species in China

Eomecon chionantha Hance, the only species in the genus Eomecon, is an angiosperm species endemic to China. Here we investigated the pollination syndrome, pollinator generalization of E. chionantha. Our results showed that the individual flower longevity of E. chionantha was 3–5 days. The flowering phenology of E. chionantha can be divided into five phases. We found significant differences in the pollination efficiency of the different insects visiting E. chionantha with bees and flies being the most efficient pollinators. This, in addition to floral morphology and phenology, suggests that E. chionantha is generalized on bees and flies and possesses an outcrossing, partially self-compatible and pollinator-dependent breeding system.     

Ecological preferences of forest voles

Basic climatic parameters (annual average air temperature and annual amount of precipitation) over 12–25 years have been analyzed with regard to their values corresponding to different levels of abundance in three species of forest voles: Clethrionomys glareolus (in 11 areas of the species range), Cl. rutilus, and Cl. rufocanus (in three areas each). The results show that the abundance of all these species correlates significantly with fluctuations of annual average temperature, with the correlation being negative in Cl. glareolus and Cl. rufocanus but positive in Cl. rutilus. In addition, the abundance of Cl. rufocanus shows a significant correlation with annual precipitation. Voles inhabiting different geographic regions may reach high abundance under different conditions. As for the species range as a whole, however, Cl. glareolus is more ecologically flexible than the other two voles. This species is also more warmth- and moisture-loving, while Cl. rufocanus is more cold-loving and xerophilous, with Cl. rutilus occupying an intermediate position between them. Clethrionomys rutilus is most temperature-dependent and stenothermic among them, whereas Cl. glareolus is indifferent to the factors studied.     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.