居民灾害应对能力评价及影响因素研究

基于灾害应对能力现有理论基础,构建基于"认知-响应-备灾"的KRP模型,采用熵值法评估区域居民灾害应对能力;采用二分法,将受访者分为高、低水平灾害应对能力组,运用对比分析法和回归分析法,结合居民个体特征探讨灾害应对能力影响机制。结果发现:(1)区域居民的灾害应对能力处于中低水平,日常备灾能力是影响居民灾害应对能力的关键因素;(2)居民灾害应对能力呈现个体差异性,学历、年龄等因素对个体差异性影响较大,其它个体特征因素影响较小;(3)高、低水平组居民的灾害应对能力整体水平及其构成要素存在显著的群体差异特征,其能力差距的主要影响因素是日常备灾能力,其中住宅防灾和应急物资准备情况为关键影响因子。最后基于以上分析结果,为我国宏观防灾规划管理和居民灾害教育提供政策建议,有助于区域居民灾害应对能力及综合防灾减灾能力的提升。     

基于突发事件生命周期视角的应急物流虚拟联合体的运行模型研究

从突发事件生命周期视角出发,对突发事件的生命周期动态演化全过程进行研究,将突发事件的生命周期分为潜伏期、爆发期、蔓延期、恢复期四个阶段,并深入分析突发事件阶段性特点,推知每一阶段物资需求和应急物流特性。通过跟踪突发事件生命周期演化过程,相应地将应急物流虚拟联合体的运行分为酝酿期、组建起、运行期、终止期四个阶段,并根据每一阶段应急物流特性构建应急物流虚拟联合体在各周期阶段的运行模型,最后阐述了虚拟联合体运行的几点注意事项。目的是切实有效地集成和整合社会专业资源,科学指导应急物流虚拟联合体的社会实践,提高突发事件整体应对能力。     

高速铁路突发事件－资源关联测度方法

为提高应对高速铁路突发事件的资源保障能力,从突发事件－资源关联视角,建立了高速铁路突发事件和应急资源的分类体系,提出了高速铁路突发事件－资源的关联强度和关联结构测度方法。结果表明,高速铁路突发事件－资源间的相互关系受事件类型、持续时间、波及范围、等级与强度、发生概率等影响,可综合运用致灾因子、事件因子、救援能力承载因子进行强度测度;相似度理论和案例推理方法有利于揭示事故类型、等级、波及范围、所在区域救援能力与资源需求量和结构间相互关系,可用于确定不同高速铁路突发事件下不同类型的资源量和比例结构;将既有线铁路、城市地铁的历史数据/案例推广到高速铁路,可弥补现有突发事件样本数不足,扩大基于案例推理/规则推理的应用范围,提高高速铁路突发事件资源需求测度的可靠性和准确性。     

借鉴香港经验构建国内应对灾害长效机制

近年来,我国国内在应对突发性自然灾害过程中,认真总结经验教训,积极建设自然灾害预警机制与应急管理体系,预警应急能力和水平逐年提高,一是坚持以人为本的原则.切实履行政府的社会管理和公共服务职能,最大程度地减少突发事件及其造成的人员伤亡和危害.二是坚持预防为主的原则.把突发事件应对处置工作落实到日常管理之中,加强基础建设,完善监测网络,搞好预案演练,提高防范意识,有效控制危机.三是坚持依法规范的原则.依据有关法律、行政法规,加强应急管理,维护公众的合法权益,使应对防治突发事件应对工作规范化、制度化、法制化.四是坚持统一领导的原则.     

道路交通突发事件分类与分级

根据道路交通突发事件的发生过程、发生机理及动用资源的不同,道路交通突发事件可分为原生型道路交通突发事件和衍生型道路交通突发事件;根据道路所指的范围不同,道路交通突发事件又可分为公路交通突发事件和城市道路交通突发事件。在国家层面对道路交通突发事件进行分级的基础上,提出二次分级的思路。并以市级公安交通管理部门负责应对的道路交通突发事件为例,确立以应急机构(及领导人)的应急协调能力为基础,综合考虑当量死亡人数、对城市道路交通的可能影响半径以及主要监控道路预计平均每车延误的二次分级标准。     

人防工程确认为地震应急避难场所的可行性和必要性

地震应急避难场所是为应对地震等突发事件，经规划、建设，具有应急避难生活服务设施，可供居民紧急疏散、临时生活的安全场所。其场址通常选在公园、绿地、广场、体育场馆等处，与其合二为一。     

突发公共危机管理的思考

建立健全应对自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生和社会安全等方面的社会预警体系,形成统一指挥、功能齐全、反应灵敏、运转高效的应急机制,提高保障公共安全和处置突发事件的能力,是政府全面履行职能,特别是加强社会管理和公共服务职能的一项重要任务,也是构建和谐社会的一项重要任务。我国改革开放和现代化建设事业步伐的加快和不断深入,已经将克服不稳定因素、防范突发公共危机的任务提了出来。     

公众风险感知评价--以高校在校生为例

公众风险感知状况可以反映出社会发展变化对人们心理状况造成的影响以及人们的反应.采用比较分析法,确立了风险感知研究指标体系,通过问卷调查方式,分析了高校学生由于个体差异特征而形成的风险感知能力的强弱差异,得出了以下结论:在风险信息的传播方面,学校教育的影响远远落后于各类媒体;从性别差异看,女生的风险感知强于男生;从学科差异看,文科学生的风险感知强于理科学生;从年级差异看,低年级学生的风险感知强于高年级学生;从生源地差异看,城市学生的风险感知强于县镇学生.对个体特征与风险感知指数进行相关性分析,结果显示,学科差异与风险感知的相关性最为显著,其后依次为年级、性别和生源地,其中年级差异与风险感知呈明显的负相关性.     

地震应急演练虚拟仿真应用技术

地震是一种破坏性极大的突发性自然灾害。破坏性地震发生后,各级政府和部门必须迅速应对这种突发性事件。开展应急演练培训,能提高应急管理人员的应急处置和科学决策能力。应用虚拟仿真应用技术构建了虚拟地震应急演练平台,提出了系统体系结构、想定编辑器、演练控制的设计思想以及虚拟应急演练的组织方式。虚拟地震应急演练平台使演练者能够通过看地震灾害现场,做出相应决策,从而增强受训者的临场感觉,提升地震应急管理人员的快速反应和应急处置能力。     

以公交车为平台的应急医疗救援车辆快速改装研究

针对社会公共突发事件造成的创伤特点，以现有灾害和恐怖活动快速医学救援为侧重点，提出临时快速改装以公交车辆为平台的系列现场伤员救治与抢运装备的设想，并详细分析了建立公交车机动医院的必要性和可行性。公交车机动医院的实施将对未来我国处理公共突发事件提供新的应对措施。     

Disaster risk management: Pro-active financing to reduce vulnerability

This study explores the preparedness of residents livingin a rural community in Victoria, Australia, for wildfires, and the factors influencing their preparedness. Overall, participants were well aware of wildfire risks and appeared well prepared for the event of a fire. However, residents involved in agriculture and with a long-standing association with the area appeared better prepared than were those on small properties and newcomers. Their social networks, previous experiences with wildfires and grassfires, and involvement with the local fire brigade influenced preparedness of long-term residents. Characteristics of agricultural communities, including a culture of self-reliance, experience with fires as part of farming, and social cohesion, appeared to contribute to wildfire preparedness within this community. Included are recommendations encouraging preparedness for wildfires.     

灾害发生时影响居民心理承受能力的社会心理因素分析

目的：探讨影响个体面对自然灾害时心理承受能力的社会心理因素．方法，采用问卷调查的方式，运用因素分析法和相关分析法对1000余名居民进行测评．结果。①个体面对灾害时的心理承受能力的影响因素为。灾害意识、灾时行为、灾害认知、社会支持，②通过相关分析，灾时行为对心理承受能力的影响最大。     

Perceptions of personal and governmental actions to improve responses to disasters such as Superstorm Sandy

Superstorm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 29 October 2012, leaving tens of thousands homeless, businesses destroyed, and 90% of New Jersey residents without electricity. Widespread infrastructure and property damage, health-related issues, and social dislocations still remain among the challenges. We interviewed 756 people in central and coastal New Jersey to ascertain damage levels, what they would do differently next time, and what governments should do differently. To deal with future events, people thought that they should prepare, buy generators and other supplies, and evacuate sooner. Their actions dealt with preparedness, rather than recovery or resiliency. However, the subjects felt that governmental agencies also had a responsibility for emergency actions, recovery, and resiliency. Preparedness included better warnings and helping to prepare homes for the impending storm. During the storm, people thought government should have faster evacuations, communications, and provide shelter, security, and supplies. Recovery included providing gas and generators, restoring electricity, providing money, and quicker response by FEMA and insurance companies. People thought the government should ensure resiliency of their communities by allowing no beach-front homes, having better building standards, and restoring dunes. Coastal people suffered greater damage for longer, and voiced a higher sense of wanting government actions.     

Malnutrition and Mortality During Recent Famines in Ethiopia: Implications for Food Aid and Rehabilitation

The 1972-73 and 1984-85 famines varied significantly among different populations within famine areas at the regional, community and household levels. Political and social factors were crucial in this pattern. Evidence from both pastoral and farming areas indicates that the development of community-based resources may be less disruptive socially and economically and result in less morbidity and mortality than dependence on relief shelters. Areas needing further study are identified.     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison

Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.     

Ethnicity,income, and disaster preparedness in Deep South Texas,United States

This paper examines the influence of a series of demographic and socioeconomic factors on preparedness outcomes for a sample of residents of the Rio Grande Valley in the southernmost part of Texas, United States. Data were collected as part of the regional Pulse of the Valley Study, a general social survey of south Texas residents conducted by the Center for Survey Research at the University of Texas‐Rio Grande Valley. The purpose of this investigation is to understand better the effects of ethnicity and income on preparedness within a region of the US that suffers from widespread poverty and limited infrastructure and is prone to flooding and hurricanes. Taken together, the results suggest that while age, disaster experience, and income are associated with preparedness, the relationship between preparedness and ethnicity remains complex. Furthermore, policymakers should consider initiatives that address the socioeconomic and other issues that shape preparedness for a disaster.     

Risk factors for long‐term post‐traumatic stress disorder among medical rescue workers appointed to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake response in China

This study aims to determine the risk factors for clinically‐significant post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Chinese medical rescue workers one year after the response to the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008. A sample of 337 medical workers who performed response work within the first three months of the event completed an online questionnaire, which included information on demographics, social support, the management and organisation of the disaster response, and an assessment of PTSD. Symptoms consistent with PTSD were prevalent in 17 per cent of the rescue workers. Those who developed PTSD symptoms were more likely to have been injured, experienced a water shortage, been disconnected from family and friends during the response, and have passive coping styles and neurotic personalities. Factors that cannot be changed easily, such as personality traits, should be evaluated prior to deployment to ensure that rescue workers at higher risk of PTSD are provided with adequate support before and during deployment.     

A pilot study of citizens' opinions on the Incident Command System in Taiwan

Local residents may have different views on disaster‐response modes depending on their cultural and socioeconomic background. The purpose of this study was to examine Taiwan residents' opinions on the Incident Command System (ICS). We performed a structured survey through face‐to‐face interviews in mudslide‐affected communities. Quantitative analysis showed that the residents exhibited a clear preference for the ICS core‐principle attributes of ‘integrated communications’, ‘transfer of command’ and ‘modular organisation’. By contrast, the residents tended towards a non‐ICS approach for ‘incident action plan’ and ‘manageable span of control’. Qualitative analysis revealed an uncertain attitude towards ‘transfer of command’ and ‘incident action plan’. Community acceptance is important in the promotion of the ICS. A better understanding of residents' preferences should be acquired through a broader community survey, allowing us to understand perspectives on the ICS among different societies and facilitate implementation of the ICS at the basic community level.